Man at Work

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Credit: DIRK SHADD | Tampa Bay Times

It’s hard not to like new Kansas City Royals outfielder Brett Phillips. Whether it’s interacting with family and friends in his return to his hometown or his infectious laugh, it’s pretty easy to cheer for this guy. Or maybe you are like me and just enjoy his humor:

But there are more than enough reasons to be a fan of Mr. Phillips. For one, his defense is above average as we have already seen in his short Royals career:

So at this point, envisioning Phillips staying in Kansas City for the foreseeable future seems like a lock, right? With that said, there is one part of his game that needs some minor tweaking and that is his ability at the plate.

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Credit: John Sleezer/KC Star

Now this isn’t a shock to anyone who had read the scouting reports on Phillips before or after he was acquired. For awhile now his hitting has been the one thing holding him back. Here is one such report from last summer:

My guess is that his batting average and OBP will be inconsistent, at least at first, but that his power and defense will make him a viable option even when he’s having contact troubles. He’s only 23 and still has a lot of development time. He has a shot at being a multi-category regular and at worst should be a valuable platoon player.

It’s lucky for both Phillips and the Royals that they have the time over the next few years to give him the room to grow. His raw tool set is going to make it a priority to allow him the time and see how far along he comes over the next two years.

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Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

The good news is that there are already some positives in his short tenure in Kansas City, albeit in a small sample size. For one, his line drive rate is sitting at 29% over the last month, which is a pretty healthy increase over his minor league career. While it would be nice to see him get the ball in the air slightly more with his power potential, line drives are always a sign of good contact and with his speed it can actually become an extra advantage for him.

He also has put up an impressive .355 BABIP during this span, which is telling us two different stories. One aspect of his BABIP is that when he does hit the ball, there is a good chance it is turning into a hit. The other aspect screams that he is striking out way too much, which means he isn’t getting the ball in play as much as one would like.

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Phillips has struck out 25 times in 63 plate appearances as of Tuesday, which gives him at a 39.7% strike out rate. The last couple of seasons have seen his strike outs increase in the minor leagues, which feels like a direct correlation to the increase in his power numbers.

Most of us are aware that if a player is trying to hit for more power there should be an expectation that his strike outs will also see a bump. The goal for Phillips is to work on making more contact while not sacrificing too much power in the process. As we have seen over the years (with Mike Moustakas being the most recent) it could take a while for the power to completely develop and a lot of times is just a step in the maturation process.

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Phillips has posted a pretty good walk rate throughout the minors and while it is a bit lower over the past month (7.9%), it also feels like the small sample size makes this a moot point. The walks will come, more than likely, as he continues to adjust to his new team.

The power should also come, although the numbers tend to hint that he isn’t too far off. Out of his 12 hits in a Royals uniform so far, 5 have been for extra bases. There are some concerns (hard hit rate is at 28.1% over the last month, lower than Rosell Herrera) but it might be wise to remember the adjustment period he is going through right now.

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Phillips has gone from not only a new team, but is dealing with a new league and even to a degree still adjusting to the big leagues. Before the trade to Kansas City, Phillips had only appeared in 122 plate appearances, which is slightly more than a months worth of appearances on average for a big league hitter. There is a lot being thrown his way to deal with and his level of comfort is probably not as high as it normally would be.

The good news is that there are a lot of positives to deal with as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs in September, considering he would have had a full month with his new team and hopefully has built up a decent amount of confidence by then.

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Credit: BRAD RICHARDSON

Phillips has a number of tools that should help him along the way and give him the ability to work around any complications. It might not occur all at once the rest of this year or next, but since the Royals have to look at the bigger picture it’s not always about immediate gratification.

Instead, it will be about following his progress. Phillips isn’t going to turn into an All-Star overnight but there is no reason to think he won’t be a productive part of the lineup sooner rather than later. There will be bumps in the road and I’m sure at times we will see him struggle mightily. But the template is there; all it will take is for Phillips and the Royals to put in the work.

 

 

 

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Dayton Moore’s Altered Masterplan

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As the Kansas City Royals muddle through a rough 2018 campaign, it isn’t hard to veer off course and try to entertain yourself in different ways. Some focus on other sports, while others pick up a new hobby. For myself, I try to play a fun game of ‘Rex Bingo’ as I watch the bullpen implode or the offense struggle to muster three hits (and trust me, this game will be explained at a later date).

But Royals General Manager Dayton Moore has found a new, creative way of dealing with the Royals holding the second worst record in baseball. As the Moustakas trade was going down in the late hours of Friday night, Moore decided to throw a Molotov cocktail into a nice, peaceful losing season. Moore was tired of Rome burning:

“We didn’t want to do a prospect-type deal in this case, because of the nature of where we are at the major-league level and what we’re trying to accomplish,” Moore said on a conference call with reporters. “We don’t like losing games and we don’t like where we are right now with the major-league team, so we wanted to try to seek talent that was going to help us sooner than later.”

We’ve all known that Kansas City would be rebuilding this year and for the last few years Moore has done a good job of reminding every one of what expectations should be. But this shift in thinking lit Royals fandom into a fury that started stirring more questions than answers for Moore. In other words, what exactly is Dayton Moore focused on right now, rebuilding or the wins and losses of a bad Royals team?

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Before we go down this path, do remember that most baseball analysts have applauded the Moustakas trade and what Kansas City received in the deal. Personally, I felt it was a bigger haul than expected for a player who was essentially a two-month rental. So by no means are we questioning the value of the trade.

To go a step further, there really aren’t a ton of complaints about the Kelvin Herrera trade or the Jon Jay deal. Both moves helped replenish the farm system and coupled with the recent draft have deepened the value in the minor leagues. In both regards, it feels like Moore has done right by the future of the organization.

But the one question that is always posed when deals like these are made is whether or not the team was able to get the best value in return. Sometimes it is about filling a need, and other times it is about getting the best players available. Even when it comes to the Moose trade, these deals have felt like proper value considering who was traded, how much time was left on the players contract and whether or not the Royals were willing to eat salary (which is almost always never).

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But Moore’s quote about wanting to improve the current roster feels like a big 180 degree turn. To be honest, in some ways it is hard to fathom why he would even care about wins or losses when the focus should be on development and planning for the future. If the current Royals team gets even 10 more wins than what they are on pace for, does it matter? In the scope of the bigger picture, are those extra wins helping this team become a contender sooner or appeasing some other master?

Because as much as the focus should be on procuring the future by letting some of the prospects play, it is important to also remember that baseball is a business. At the end of the day, upper management is (and should be) concerned about how much money is coming in and/or how much is going out. If we are being honest here, the Royals losing hurts business. Less wins equal fewer customers rolling through the turnstiles and that is a big part of the business side of this team.

But lets also not forget that the Royals are currently working on a new television deal, as the organization looks to replace one of the worst deals in baseball. It’s probably a safe assumption that the team will make a ridiculous amount of money off any new deal no matter how the performance on the field goes. But a winning team is easier to sell than one that has taken up residence near the bottom of the league.

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Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

So if Kansas City is trying to max out this new deal, they would obviously want to put their best foot forward. That would involve improving the ‘on the field product’ from what we have seen in the first half of the season. Now, Moore isn’t involved in these negotiations but he is the guy who would be able to make moves to improve the product on the diamond…and that involves seeking talent that can help them sooner rather than later.

So could this recent change in attitude be a byproduct of the TV deal? Possibly. It could also just be a knee-jerk reaction to all of the losing. The losing has obviously caused a stir in upper management:

“I’m embarrassed the way our major-league team has performed. OK? I didn’t necessarily expect us to be in the playoffs this year, but I didn’t expect us to be on pace to lose 100-plus games,” Moore said. “That’s embarrassing to me personally, it’s embarrassing to our organization. Mr. Glass doesn’t expect that, either, and so we’ve got to do a better job of that. (Former Tigers general manager) Bill Lajoie told me this a long time ago: major-league players aren’t paid to play, they’re paid to win. And so it’s our responsibility to get players on this major-league team that understand that and they have to go out and compete.”

At one point Moore had said he expected the Royals to be on pace to win 25 more games than the pace they are currently on. Most of us guessed before the season that the team would win in the vicinity of 68-76 games this year. The Royals have performed below expectations and obviously that is not sitting well with Moore or Glass.

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The good news is that as of right now, none of the moves made so far this season has led to a younger player not receiving the playing time he would need to develop. Sure, Alcides Escobar is still taking up residence in the lineup almost everyday but we knew that before the year began. As of right now, no one is being blocked.

But you do start to wonder where Moore’s head is. Is the rebuild still on with just slight alterations? Is he more willing to look at a player closer to being big league ready than one that is a few years away, even if the younger talent has a higher ceiling? Or will he start looking at veterans to help the bleeding stop?

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Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs had some pointed comments toward the Kansas City front office. One of them really hits home right now:

While I’m not at a point where I’m ready to rally together the villagers with pitchforks and torches and ask for Moore’s head, I am asking the same question: Is there a master plan? And if there is, is it going to change again in a few more weeks? If there are more major changes, don’t be surprised when the villagers already have their weapons in tow.

Kansas City Wish Fulfillment

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Credit: John Sleezer/KC Star

If you are taking stock of the first half of the Kansas City Royals 2018 season, most of your return would be a muddled mess. The Royals were in shambles, whether it was the offense, the rotation or the bullpen. Essentially the only reliability sat in their defense, which is leading the American League in UZR while coming in 8th in defensive runs saved.

But this isn’t a piece to prop up the defense or even bash the ineptitude we have seen for the first three and a half months of the season. Instead, this is that nugget of positivity you keep hoping for. This is the dream scenario where the blocks fall into place like on a Tetris grid.

What we’ve compiled is a wish list of sorts. It’s a few items of interest that if swayed the proper direction could benefit the Royals for the rest of this season into next. By no means should you take this as ‘This is how the Royals win the American League Central’, as that is just crazy talk. No, this is a view of ‘what could be’ if Kansas City plays their cards right these next few months.

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Trading Up

With the trade deadline looming in less than a week (July 31 to be exact), the Royals are in a good position to make some moves and add some depth to the organization. Mike Moustakas appears to be the main chip that Dayton Moore has to deal and a number of teams (Boston and Atlanta among them) have shown interest in the power-hitting slugger.

But after Moose there aren’t any certainties. Whit Merrifield would be a great acquisition for a team looking to pick up a versatile fielder with the ability to get on base, but Kansas City is in a position where they don’t have to deal him if they don’t like the offers they are receiving. At this point the likelihood of a Whit trade feels like a 50/50 chance…at best.

Two other names to keep an eye on would be Lucas Duda and Jason Hammel. Duda has been hitting .310/.394/.414 over his last nine games coming into Tuesday with a BABIP of .421. While on the surface Hammel’s shift to the bullpen has been a mixed bag, his velocity has gone up (as expected) and he appears to be assimilating to his new role.

Duda could possibly be dealt in August after clearing waivers to a team looking for a power bat but Hammel feels less likely. The combination of a poor season coupled with a high salary(that Kansas City is probably unwilling to eat) makes the likelihood of a trade probably slim. But if the Royals are given the opportunity, they should take it.

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Playing Younger

With the talk of veterans being dealt, that should open up more opportunities for some of the younger talent in the Kansas City farm system. One of the advantages of a rebuild is players getting a chance to prove themselves on a fairly regular basis. That opportunity appears to be looming.

We’ve already seen extended tryouts for guys like Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier. The pitching staff has been littered with youth, from Brad Keller and Burch Smith (two Rule 5 draftees) to Tim Hill and now Heath Fillmyer. Maybe I’m being selfish, but I would love to see a larger youth movement implemented these last two months.

At this point, I am game to hand out opportunities like pieces of PEZ. Would you like to see another youngster in the rotation? Let’s see what Trevor Oaks can do on an extended basis. How about the bullpen? We’ve heard about Richard Lovelady for a while, but it’s not too far-fetched to give Kevin Lenik an opportunity as well.

Offensively there aren’t as many options, but names like Ryan O’Hearn and Frank Schwindel could be interesting come September (despite their performances so far this season). Even guys we have seen already, like Cam Gallagher and Ramon Torres, could see some playing time as the season wears on.

Obviously not all of these names are going to produce and some will even show that they are not worth keeping around. But if a team is truly rebuilding, you owe it to yourself to hand out these opportunities and let the players run with it. Good or bad, it’s simply a matter of going out and proving their worth…and luckily, the Royals have the time to allow that to happen.

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Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Rotation we were Expecting

Before the season started, a number of us felt like the Royals rotation could be a major plus for the team. In fact, I was one of those proponents:

While on the surface this is an underwhelming group of arms, there is potential here that could be reached if circumstances go the right way.

Most of the high expectations came from thinking the starters could outperform their 2017 numbers. Unfortunately, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel have not while Jakob Junis appeared to be on a fast-track to success early in the season and he has since fallen on hard times. There was also that Nate Karns guy, but who even knows if we will see him this season, as he rebounds from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

But there is some hope. Danny Duffy has looked superb over his last 11 starts, posting a 2.58 ERA while holding batters to a line of .217/.303/.296. Heath Fillmyer has been nothing short of sensational since being put in the rotation. Then there is Brad Keller, who has possibly been the biggest bright spot for Kansas City in a season full of dim bulbs.

If the Royals can get Junis back to his early season self (and his start over the weekend was encouraging) and audition either Burch Smith or Trevor Oaks for an extended period, this could be a rotation similar to what was originally expected. It won’t challenge the Atlanta Braves rotations of the early 90’s, but it doesn’t have far to go to top how the rotation performed in the first half.

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Credit: Getty Images

Fulfilled Expectations

While the other wishes were part of a grander scale, there are a few more items to keep your eye on in the second half that would drastically improve the ballclub.

Keep an eye on Whit Merrifield (if he isn’t traded) as he is on pace to topple most of his stats from 2017. Whit is currently hitting .299/.370/.420 with a wRC+ of 118 and 3.0 fWAR. While his power numbers have seen a slight decline (slugging percentage and ISO have seen the biggest dip) his overall numbers have been an improvement.

The rest of his numbers appear to have improved ( in fact his WAR is already better  than 2017), as his walk rate has seen an increase and his BABIP has risen to .356. While his strike out rate has gone up, we have also seen an uptick in the hard hit rate. If you are purely a fan of Whit’s power you might be disappointed, but otherwise it will be fun to watch him wrap up what appears to be his new peak this season.

Another interesting player to watch is Salvador Perez. A few weeks ago I took a look at Perez and his struggles. In that piece, I mentioned how it might not take much to turn around his season:

I’ll go a step further and say that if he combined that with his hard hit rate and maybe (just maybe) a dash of better luck on the balls he hits into play, Salvy could go from being the ‘disappearing hitter’ he was in June to helping ignite what little offense the Royals can muster on a consistent basis.

That luck has finally come around, as Salvy is hitting .269/.286/.481 over his last 13 games with 3 home runs and 12 RBI’s. But the improvement shows up in his BABIP, where he is hitting .314 in that span and contributing on almost a daily basis.

To break that down even further, Perez is hitting .273/.286/.576 in the last eight games with  an OPS of .861. While it may be just a small sample size, Salvy has been seeing more pitches per at bat while looking for a pitch to drive. It’s not hard to imagine him turning things around the next couple months and ending up with numbers comparable to year’s past.

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Obviously we would all like to see the Royals turn themselves back into contenders during the second half, but that just isn’t realistic. The good news is that their performance in the first half has set the bar very low for the last half of the season. It gives Kansas City a chance to show they aren’t quite as bad as they’ve played to this point.

There is a number of things you can wish for, but your best bet is to wish for improvement. Moving forward wins and losses shouldn’t matter as much as how the development is coming along for this team. It should be about finding out what they have and what they should keep moving forward. That is what should be at the top of any Royals fan’s wish list.

That and to never see Brandon Maurer in a high-leverage situation ever again.

 

 

Happy Trails, Moose

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The inevitable became reality late Friday night, as Mike Moustakas officially turned in his Kansas City blue, as Moose was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder Brett Phillips and pitcher Jorge Lopez. This was a move expected all the way back in Spring Training when Kansas City was able to re-sign Moustakas to a new contract before the beginning of the season. For those that wonder whether the Royals were willing to cover the remainder of his deal, you need not worry:

So Moose is now officially a Brewer and the Royals were able to acquire some young talent to help them. So lets discuss all the parties involved and where this leaves them.

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Credit: AP Photo/Ed Zurga

The trade puts Moustakas instantly into a playoff race, as Milwaukee is 1.5 games out in the NL Central and 1.5 games up for the first Wild Card spot in the National League. Production-wise, Moose is hitting .248/.308/.463 this year with 20 home runs, 105 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR. Moustakas has also seen a slight uptick in his walk rate and a slight decrease in his strike out rate. The most impressive stat for him this year is his hard hit rate, which has been elevated by a large margin, 43.7% to last year’s 31.9%. Some of that could be attributed to the leg injuries he dealt with the last half of 2017, which appeared to sap some of his power as the season progressed.

Moose leaves behind a legacy in Kansas City of being the ultimate gamer, which even teammates can attest to:

His manager also thought very fondly of him:

Moose is the guy who broke Steve Balboni’s 32-year reign as the Royals single-season home run record of 36, as he hit 38 last year. More than anything, he was a fan favorite who dealt with offensive issues throughout his time in Kansas City but found a way to make himself better, which endeared him to the fanbase. In many ways, it was easier for us fans to sympathize with someone like Moose because he did struggle and worked hard to improve himself.

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Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

On the other side of the trade is Brett Phillips. Phillips was ranked as the tenth-best prospect for the Brewers this year and is a toolsy outfielder. Here is a scouting report from last summer on his offensive ability:

Phillips is an above-average to plus runner and when he does make contact, he hits the ball hard to all fields, so he may be able to carry above-average batting averages on balls in play going forward. Given his strikeout rate, however, his hit tool will probably only be fringe-average at best and it doesn’t appear as though he’ll ever consistently hit for a high batting average. Even if he’s ultimately only a .230-.240 hitter, Maverick should at least be able to post respectable on-base numbers thanks to his patient approach at the dish. He looks to have the power to hit between 15-20 home runs on an annual basis, and should be a threat to steal 15 or more bases.

So the good news is that Phillips is a patient hitter and has a decent amount of power, power that should improve as he continues to develop. The bad news is the strike outs, which have continued to slow down his progress:

According to the scouts at Baseball Prospectus, Phillips can struggle to remain consistent with his mechanics at times and has plenty of swing-and-miss within the strike zone. Phillips has struck out in 30% of his plate appearances dating back to midseason-2015 and owns only a .249 batting average since that time.

Defensively, Phillips is a gem:

Phillips has the tools to be an outstanding defender in the outfield. He is an outstanding athlete and has enough speed to play in center, though he’s ceded most of the playing time there to Lewis Brinson this season. His plus-plus arms features outstanding velocity and carry on his throws and plays best in right field. He is still working on reading trajectories in center field and can have issues going back on balls at times, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern going forward. If it all comes together for him, Phillips should be an above-average centerfielder or excellent right fielder.

So with Phillips the Royals have acquired an outfielder who could be above average at the plate if he can just control his whiffs. Also, he has one of the best laughs in baseball:

Phillips will get the chance to be a regular outfielder for Kansas City and at this point looks to be a good choice for the future of this organization.

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Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Lopez is another top Milwaukee prospect who is in his age 25 season. The Royals aren’t for sure what role to use Lopez in yet but either way he has the stuff needed for the big leagues:

He can get his fastball up to 95 and has a pretty decent change-up, but his best pitch is his powerhouse curveball. He was unhittable with it in Double-A in ‘15 but the thin air in the higher altitudes of Colorado Springs and some of the other PCL parks in 2016 lessened the effectiveness of this pitch and he was unable to adjust.

Lopez has been pitching out of the bullpen for the most part these last two seasons and with his high-octane fastball could very well end up in that role for Kansas City. For the moment, Lopez has been sent to AAA where he will be fully evaluated but expect to see him on the big league roster by the end of the year.

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Credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Overall, it feels like a pretty good haul for Kansas City considering that Moustakas is a two-month rental for Milwaukee. Personally, I felt the Royals would end up with a lot less than what they got in the trade, so the fact they were able to get two former Top 100 prospects for just a couple of months of Moose feels like a solid trade for Dayton Moore.

Moore had an interesting comment after the trade was made pertaining to what he was looking for in return. To say it caught Royals fans eyes would be an understatement:

It’s obvious that Moore is looking to improve the big league club sooner rather than later and there have been some concerns raised about wanting to speed up the current rebuild. I’m not ready to lambaste GMDM yet, but you do have to wonder if his attention should be focused more on the future than the wins and losses column of the current squad.

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Credit: Associated Press

So after thinking Moustakas was gone after the end of the 2017 season, the truth was that us Royals fans got an extra four months of “The Man we call Moose”. The good news is that the team can now move forward and officially make plans for the future. Every fan will have a favorite Moose moment and I am no different. One play will always stick out for me when it comes to Mike Moustakas’ tenure in Kansas City:

While the home runs were sometimes majestic and many helped the Royals win, that catch personified what Moose really is: a grinder, a man who always got his jersey dirty and a player who never gave up.

Moustakas was the guy who knew he needed to work on his defense after his rookie year and would spend the following winter transforming himself into an above-average defender. Moustakas was the guy who knew he needed to learn how to hit the ball to the opposite field to counteract the shift and did just that before the 2015 campaign.

Moustakas was also the guy who improved his power numbers as he got older and embraced his role as being a clubhouse leader. More than anything, Moose was a guy who embodied the attitude of the 2014-2015 Royals: Never die, never give up and never admit defeat. Moose was a perfect fit for those teams and without him Kansas City would have never been able to win a world championship. Thank you, Moose. You will always be ‘Forever Royal’.

Jay Traded to Arizona for Two Prospects

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Pretty much from the beginning of Spring Training this year, we have been aware that the Kansas City Royals would be sellers come the trade deadline. In fact, it was obvious who the Royals would be dangling as bait when that time came. But what none of us saw coming was outfielder Jon Jay being dealt during the first week of June:

So while we might have known Jay would be dealt before the end of summer, I’m pretty sure none of us saw this coming as early as it has. But from the first glance, it looks like a solid deal for Kansas City.

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In his short stint in Kansas City, Jay had proven to be exactly what the Royals needed. In fact, Jay is coming off of a great month of May. During those 31 days, Jay hit .368/.402/.436 over 28 games, racking up 43 hits and a sOPS+ of 132. May was big enough for him that he is still 14th in the American League in batting average (.307) and 5th in hits with 73 (2nd in singles at 61 behind only Jose Altuve). So it makes sense that Jay’s value is at a high right now and with the Diamondbacks dealing with some injury issues in the outfield (both A.J. Pollock and Steven Souza are currently on the disabled list), it only made sense for Arizona to be on the look-out for some help.

The good thing for Arizona is they are now getting a veteran outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and who can fit about any role that is needed. Jay isn’t going to wow anyone, as he is not a flashy player, but he is consistent and should help the team with some depth until Souza or Pollock are able to return.

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Credit: Kansas City Royals Twitter Account

The two pitchers that Kansas City acquired in this trade was 18-year old righty Elvis Luciano and 23-year old lefty Gabe Speier. Fangraphs did a nice little scouting report last night after the trade went down:

Luciano is a live-armed 18-year-old Dominican righty who spent most of 2017 in the DSL, then came to the U.S. in August for a month of Rookie-level ball, then instructional league. During instructs he was 90-94 with an average curveball, below-average changeup, and below command, especially later in his outing as he tired. He was an honorable-mention prospect on the D-backs list.

His velocity has mostly remained in that range this spring, topping out at 96. Luciano’s delivery has been changed to alter his glove’s location as he lifts his leg, probably to help him clear his front side a little better. He’s still had strike-throwing issues and might be a reliever, but he has a live arm and can spin a breaking ball. Though 18, Luciano’s frame doesn’t have much projection, so while he might grow into some velocity as he matures, it probably won’t be a lot. He’s an interesting, long-term flier who reasonably projects as a back-end starter.

As for Speier, he’s repeating Double-A. He’s a sinker/slider guy, up to 95 with an average slide piece. He projects as a bullpen’s second lefty and should be viable in that type of role soon.

So there is some definite upside to Luciano and Speier very well could have a future role for the Royals in the bullpen. Considering that Jay is essentially a league average hitter, it appears Kansas City actually got a couple of players who could be a part of the main roster in the future, even if it will be awhile before either is ready to contribute.

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Credit: RON JENKINS

While I know there was some uproar from the ‘Facebook’ crowd that the Royals went and traded one of their best players, the honest truth is it made sense and is a smart deal for the future of the organization. Jay was on a short, one-year deal and part of the point of signing him in the first place was to turn around and flip him in a trade this summer. The Royals accomplished that goal and in return added a couple of arms to add depth to their farm system.

While it might make the “on-the field” product a little lacking, the trade makes the future a little bit brighter. This is the whole point of this 2018 season: see what you have on the roster, keep the younger players with value and trade the veterans that can bring back some prospects. Jay is just the first of many deals we will be seeing from the Kansas City front office this summer. If this deal upset you, you probably aren’t going to like what happens next.

 

 

Royals Sign Duda

 

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Credit: Sports Illustrated

Just when you thought the Kansas City Royals winter was over…

On Wednesday they signed Lucas Duda to a one-year, $3.5 million dollar deal with Kansas City. Incentives could push this deal a bit higher, based on plate appearances:

With the signing, Duda will take over the first base position to begin the year and will add a much-needed left-handed bat to the middle of the Royals batting order. Even better, Duda has been surprisingly productive the last few years in both New York and Tampa Bay.

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Credit: The Associated Press

Duda is coming off of a 30-home run season as he split time with the Rays and Mets. Duda hit 30 bombs, drove in 64 runs, posted a slash line of .217/.322/.496 with an OPS+ of 116. Not enough for your liking? Over his career he has put up an OPS+ of 120 (league average is 100), a .457 slugging percentage and has three seasons where he has produced over 200 total bases. Duda is a power hitting first baseman who is entering his age 32 season and should be able to still produce in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium.

I’m sure there will be some who question whether or not he can produce at the level of his predecessor, Eric Hosmer. Well….

Duda won’t be as agile as Hosmer on the base paths or even on defense. Speaking of his defense…

In case you didn’t know, Duda was the one who threw the ball into the stands. The Royals are obviously taking a step down defensively with Duda, but considering what he will do with the bat and what they will be paying him, it is still a good deal.

Lucas Duda takes a pitch during #WorldSeries Game 1.

The one issue that has been brought up with his signing is how he will affect the younger players who have been vying for the first base spot in camp, most notably Hunter Dozier (who appeared to be the front-runner this spring). If you are in the camp of the Royals doing a larger rebuild, Duda would be the wrench in that process as he would be taking at bats away from players like Dozier, Ryan O’Hearn and Frank Schwindel. But General Manager Dayton Moore doesn’t see things that way:

It’s obvious to see that the best case scenario is for Duda to play well, boosting his value and making him more tantalizing for teams before the summer trade deadline. The Royals could then ship him off for a piece that could hopefully help the team in the future and someone like Dozier or O’Hearn could then take over the first base position. In fact, it appears that is what Moore is already thinking:

This seems to hint toward Dozier starting the year in the minors and working his way back up to the big league club. In my mind, this isn’t a bad idea and I even pointed out why I believe that the day of the signing:

While I probably view Dozier differently then some (and I will delve into that at a later date), throwing him into the lineup to start the year and replacing an icon while still learning the position feels like a lot of weight to throw on one man’s shoulders. The Duda signing gives the team time to get Dozier better adjusted to these scenario’s while adding a veteran left-handed bat to a lineup that is going to need all the help it can get.

Lucas Duda
Credit: Fox Sports

Taking this all into account, bringing Duda into the fold feels like a win-win situation for the Royals. The Royals get a veteran bat, adding a lefthander for a very righthanded heavy lineup while allowing time for Dozier to adjust to his fairly new position. Throw in that it is only costing Kansas City $3.5 million AND they might be able to deal him later in the summer and you have the makings of a quality Dayton Moore signing. It even looks like any beef Duda had with Rusty Kuntz has gone away:

It’s not ground breaking, but it was a move that pegs in the positive side of the ledger. For those worried about how Moore will operate as the team moves to rebuild, this will hopefully temper some of the paranoia.

Oh…and considering he is a world series hero in many a Royals fan’s eyes, I would expect a ‘Standing O’ come Opening Day. I have a feeling Duda will fit in just fine…

 

 

Smiles & Hugs: Melky is Back in KC

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Credit: Chicago Tribune

There is nothing quite like late July in Major League Baseball; pennant races, visits to Cooperstown and the trade deadline. It’s long been believed that the Kansas City Royals would be buying at the trade deadline and last week Royals GM Dayton Moore swung a deal with San Diego for three pitchers to help both the rotation and bullpen. Earlier in the weekend, it was known that Moore was also on the hunt for a bat to beef up the lineup:

This was on Friday and the idea of a reunion with Melky seemed to make the most sense. Luckily, Moore agreed:

So the Royals have now added an additional bat for the lineup. The question has already been asked so let’s immediately address it: Where does Melky fit in?

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians

The answer is ‘everywhere’. The most apparent fit would be left field, as Alex Gordon has struggled most of the season. The numbers seem to preach that as well:

Gordon-.201/.294/.296, 0.4 fWAR

Cabrera-.295/.336/.436, 0.8 fWAR

Since Melky would be a possible fit at DH against lefties, I decided to break down those splits as well:

Gordon- .186/.336/.209, 59 wRC+

Cabrera- .296/.327/.500, 118 wRC+

Moss-.318/.412/.591, 166 wRC+

In years past there have been some heavy splits for Moss against lefties, but so far in 2017 he is handling them very well. It would appear that Gordon would be the odd man out in this scenario, but while I expect to see Gordon’s playing time cut, he will probably still see a good  number of starts as well as being a defensive replacement late in the game. If you look up above at the fWAR numbers, Melky and Alex aren’t too far off and that is mostly because of defense. Alex has been an above average defender in 2017 while Melky continues to be below average. What I would expect to see is Melky floating around, playing left field one day, right field another, and DH every now and then too. Manager Ned Yost will probably mix and match according to who is on the mound that day and who is struggling/needs rest. Melky being a switch hitter helps in this equation, as he can fit in whether there is a righty or a lefty on the mound. While Melky isn’t exactly tearing up the league offensively, he is an improvement over what Kansas City has had most of this year and while not displacing just one player, will be a fairly regular in the Royals lineup, most likely in the two-hole.

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Credit: The Sporting News

While his bat will improve the lineup, maybe the biggest addition with Melky is his presence in the clubhouse. During his previous stint in Kansas City, he was beloved by the likes of Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez and Melky has still been known to give a hug to Hosmer whenever he reaches first base when he has been on the opposing team. In fact, it surprised me a bit that Melky didn’t try to return to the Royals before the 2015 season when he was a free agent. This is what I wrote back in August 2015 about it:

But while watching Melky this past weekend I started thinking about how much he loves these guys and I started pondering how much fun he would have if he was still with Kansas City. The thing is, he could have been a Royal again. This past winter, the Royals were on the hunt for a new right fielder to take the place of Nori Aoki. They had tried Torii Hunter but he returned to Minnesota. They had also talked to Melky about coming in, even offering him a contract fairly similar to what he got from Chicago. Chicago eventually won the Melky sweepstakes, but I found it interesting why he chose the White Sox over the Royals:

 Cabrera “really wanted to win,” Rick Hahn, White Sox GM recalled. “(He said) ‘But with all due respect are you guys really in a position to win and am I really a difference maker for you?’ ”

So Chicago’s winter moves swayed Melky, or at least he felt like they had a better chance to win. The funny thing is, the Royals offered a deal somewhat similar to what Chicago gave him. I believe it was one less year, and possibly a few million less. But here was my thought this weekend: with the Royals in about the same situation as Chicago, at least when pertaining to their chance of winning, why would he not take a little less money to be around a bunch of guys that he really enjoys playing with? Now, Seattle did offer Cabrera an extra year, so maybe the years weren’t as big a deal but with the Royals offering something in the same ballpark, I just find it odd that he wouldn’t try to come back to Kansas City. I’m sure that White Sox locker room is full of quality guys; I don’t doubt that a bit. But the chance to win a championship and do that with a bunch of guys you think fondly of? I tend to think you can’t beat that. But obviously it was not meant to be, and instead the Royals end up with Alex Rios who looks about the same as the Alex Rios that was sapped of power last year in Texas. We can only imagine how much better this Royals team would have been with Melky roaming right field…

So Melky is now going to get that chance to play with his friends and I can only imagine good things come from that. There is no statistic to quantify clubhouse chemistry, but it is well-known that Kansas City has a great group of guys that most have enjoyed playing with whenever they come play for the Royals. I have to believe the addition of Melky has put a bunch of smiles on the faces of the veterans who were with Kansas City back in 2011.

Chicago White Sox Workout
Credit: Sports Illustrated

Adding Melky to the Royals equation was a smart move, but there is always the other side of  a deal and in this one it involved two young pitchers. A.J. Puckett was the Royals first pick for Kansas City back in the 2016 draft (in the second round) and has been pitching this year in the Royals High A affiliate in Wilmington. Baseball America had Puckett ranked as the number 5 prospect in the Royals farm system before the 2017 season but he has struggled a bit so far in this campaign: 3.90 ERA over 108 innings, allowing 107 hits and a 1.412 WHIP. The original belief was that Puckett would go as far as his breaking ball takes him and at his ceiling would probably be a #3 starter in the big leagues. That being said, consistency has been his enemy this year:

Scoles does a great job analyzing the Royals farm system for Baseball Prospectus Kansas City and is someone who has been keeping an eye on Puckett. Davis is a 23-year-old lefty who hasn’t been listed on any of the Royals top prospect list but has done a good job against lefties this season at Class A Lexington: .216/.289/.352 batting line in 97 plate appearances this year. His overall numbers are a bit pedestrian: 4.82 ERA, with a 1.389 WHIP and a nice 3.78 strike out to walk ratio. Obviously Puckett is the bigger piece of this deal and while it always hurts to give up a solid pitching arm, this feels like a low regret type deal for the Royals in the long haul.

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So the Royals pick up another piece on their latest run to the playoffs and if anything the front office and ownership has shown they will step up when needed:

So in the last week Kansas City has acquired a rotation arm, two bullpen arms and a solid bat for the lineup….and it appears that Kansas City isn’t quite done yet:

The MLB trade deadline is set for 3pm Central on Monday, more than enough time for ‘Dealer Dayton’ to grab another arm. If the last week has been any indication we should expect another surprise within the next 24 hours. It feels good to know that no matter the end outcome, Royals management is giving this team everything it needs to play October baseball. The band is back together and getting ready to spin their greatest hits over the final two months of the season…and maybe the encore come October.

 

 

Arms Dealer: Royals, Padres Trade Pitchers

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There has been a large question mark surrounding the Kansas City Royals since before the season even started and it revolved around three simple words: buy or sell? It has been well-known for a while now that the Royals nucleus of their championship teams in 2014 and 2015 are eligible for free agency at the end of the season and how the Royals performed this year would go a long way towards determining which party they attended. I’ve long felt they wouldn’t be selling but that didn’t exactly mean they would be buying either. The honest truth is that there aren’t a lot of pieces in the minors for Kansas City to use as bait and dissecting the big league roster would most likely damage their chances of contending. With that said, baseball was taken aback on Monday as the Royals traded pitchers Matt Strahm and Travis Wood with minor league infielder Esteury Ruiz to San Diego for pitchers Brandon Maurer, Ryan Buchter and Trevor Cahill. It was a trade that will help both teams but the heavy emphasis is how it helps Kansas City as they make another run to October baseball.

San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres

Pitching is what the Royals needed and adding the three arms is a plus for Kansas City moving forward. Cahill will slide into the rotation, an instant improvement on the young arms they have tried to stabilize the 5th spot in the rotation. Cahill has been an above average starter to far in 2017, posting an ERA+ of 115 in his 11 starts, a 3.39 FIP and a nice 3.00 strike out to walk ratio in 61 innings. Cahill has posted his highest strike out rate of his career so far (27.4%), mostly due to an increased use of his curveball. Cahill has dealt with some shoulder discomfort this year and spent a bit of time on the disabled list because of it. But he is already an improvement over the Junis’ and Skoglund’s that Kansas City has been throwing out there this summer and could even see more consistency with the Royals defense behind him.

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Buchter (pronounced Book-ter) will add another stellar left-hander to the Royals pen and improves an already solid array of relievers. Buchter has been productive so far this year: 139 ERA+, 2.61 strike out to walk ratio, and a 29.2% strike out ratio. His FIP is a bit high (4.55) but his work against lefties is exactly what any manager would expect from a left-handed specialist: .175/.277/.386 line against lefties, striking out 20 over 15.2 innings against batters from the left side. Buchter has allowed a few too many home runs for the short amount of work he has pitched (7 home runs given up over 38.1 innings) but he was less productive at home this season (batters hit .238/.304/.492 against Buchter at Petco Park this year) which could be a plus at Kauffman Stadium. Buchter has also performed admirably in high leverage situations (posting a slash line of .071/.188/.214 and a wOBA of .187) and has been on lock down when he has had runners in scoring position (.156/.270/.226 and a wOBA of .231). Buchter isn’t going to be one of your main setup guys, but he could be the guy Ned Yost goes to when a tough left-handed batter needs to be vanquished.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

The most intriguing piece of the trade is Brandon Maurer, who has been the Padres default closer for most of this year. While his surface numbers won’t pop out at you (74 ERA+, 5.72 ERA and 39 hits over 39 innings), underneath tells a different story. While Maurer’s ERA is above 5, his FIP sits at 3.22. He also has the highest strike out rate of his career (23.5%) and the lowest walk rate as well (4.9%). What has hurt Maurer this year has been those high leverage situations; Maurer has posted a .283/.309/.442 line in those situations and a wOBA of .310. This goes double for his performance with men in scoring position, as they have hit .400/.455/.641 with a wOBA of .450. I mentioned ‘default closer’ earlier and that was for a reason; Maurer is probably better suited as a setup guy and it’s not just the numbers that speak of that:

If this is the case, Maurer will be a great fit for the Royals, being one of the bridges to closer Kelvin Herrera. Even better for Kansas City, the Royals will be able to keep Maurer and Buchter for the foreseeable future:

While Cahill will be a free agent after the end of the year, Maurer and Buchter look to be staying for a while. The contract control had to be a great selling point for Dayton Moore as he was working on this deal.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

The Royals meanwhile gave up a couple of solid arms and a young prospect for the three San Diego pitchers. Matt Strahm, currently on the disabled list, was the big get as he was ranked as the Royals second best prospect by Baseball America before the season started. While Strahm struggled during his two stints in Kansas City this year (84 ERA+, 22 runs given up in 34.2 innings), he was initially going to be a big part of the Royals pen. While Kansas City envisioned him as a future starter, there are some concerns that he might be better suited for the bullpen in the long run. Either way, losing Strahm does hurt any pitching depth the Royals had in their minor league system. Travis Wood was also dealt and to be honest it is amazing that someone was willing to take him with the season he has had this year. Wood’s time in Kansas City was not good, as he compiled an ERA+ of 66 with 33 runs given up in 41.2 innings. While the Royals shipped Wood to the Padres, they are still paying on his contract:

Okay, now I see how the Royals were able to deal Wood. Being able to ship him off is still a win-win situation and should actually improve Kansas City. Finally, minor league infielder Esteury Ruiz rounded out this trade. Ruiz isn’t ranked on most prospect lists, but scouts really love this kid:

I tend to believe if the Royals had any regrets, it will end up being because of Ruiz. He is only 18 years old so the likelihood of regretting trading him probably won’t happen for at least four years at the earliest. Overall, this trade was one that made sense for both clubs and appears to help the them both now and in the future.

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The Royals need for pitching appeared to be fulfilled with this trade but alas it appears Moore might not be done dealing yet:

The Royals have not only discussed Liriano with Toronto, but also Marco Estrada as possible fits in the Kansas City rotation. Estrada would appear to be the better fit, as Liriano as struggled with consistency and efficiency for years now, while Estrada had put together five solid seasons before this bump in the road in 2017. There are still about five days left before the trade deadline so it is possible that Kansas City isn’t done adding to their team. Even if it doesn’t happen, the Royals upgraded both the bullpen and rotation with the trade earlier this week and have put themselves in a better position to go after a playoff spot. Time will tell whether these moves pay off, but no one can say that the Royals didn’t at least give it a go. They aren’t big moves like picking up Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto, but we all knew Kansas City couldn’t afford moves like that. Instead, the Royals appear to be following the model of 2014; let the rotation eat enough innings and then hand the ball over to the bullpen. It worked once, so there is no reason to think it can’t work again.

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