Headed into Spring Training 2016, the Kansas City Royals have very little when it comes to major concerns on their roster. There is right field (which looks like a platoon between Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando), the 5th spot in the starting rotation, the backup catcher battle and a few bullpen spots. But there also is a battle at second base, where Omar Infante looks to reclaim his spot while upstart Christian Colon looks to pry playing time away from the veteran. It would appear on first look that it is Infante’s job to lose, but there is always a chance Colon could take over, especially since Infante’s numbers the last few years have been less than stellar. Word last month from the almighty GM, Dayton Moore was that Colon would get a chance to win the job away from Infante this spring. So this begs the question: who should the Royals start at second base?
Let’s start with the man we all figure will win the job, Omar Infante. Infante is getting ready for his age 34 season, year 3 of a 4 year deal with Kansas City. To say Infante has been lacking offense the last two seasons would be a bit of an understatement. Infante’s OPS+ the last two seasons has been 76 and 49(league average is 100), miles away from the 115 he produced for Detroit back in 2013. He was actually able to produce a positive WAR in 2014(0.8) but slipped to -0.8 in 2015. Pretty much every offensive statistic has suffered in his two years in Kansas City, although he did have a number of clutch hits for the team in 2014. It’s not even just the main offensive numbers; fly ball % is down, his groundball rate is up and his hard hit rate has suffered as well. None of this is too surprising, as Infante is at that age where regression starts to sit in, so a dip in the numbers shouldn’t be too shocking.
Defensively, it has been a different story, as Omar actually held his own on defense this past year. Infante was able to post a positive dWAR, a big bump in his UZR, and a slight increase in his defensive runs saved. If ever you wondered why manager Ned Yost continued to pencil Infante into the lineup everyday, looking at his defensive numbers should explain it. The real detriment to Infante the last two seasons(and why there is at least some optimism in his return) has been the litany of injuries that he has dealt with during his time in Kansas City. In just two seasons, Infante has dealt with a jaw sprain, a shoulder sprain, an oblique strain(which sidelined him at the end of 2015), and a bone spur in his right elbow that required surgery this past November. Outside of the first week of the 2014 season, I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen a completely healthy Infante during his time in Royal blue. A healthy Infante would go a long ways toward not only sewing up a starting spot but also increasing his value in any way possible.
So what about Christian Colon? Well, his numbers are a bit harder to decipher because of limited time in the majors. Offensively, he has been better than Infante the last two seasons numbers wise, but once again this is in limited action. Colon has put up an OPS+ of 139 and 91 the last two seasons, but that is in 21 and 43 games. He has compiled a positive WAR(0.7 and 0.6) and defensively has been a slightly above average fielder. I went ahead and looked at his numbers in AAA Omaha, and Colon played about how you would figure; an average hitter with little power, decent speed and a positive increase in his BB/K rate. It’s hard to really get a read on what kind of major league player Colon would be, but it would appear he is about replacement level.
If you believe Moore, this will be a serious competition between the two players. In fact he all but said that last month when talking to MLB.com:
“We’ll just evaluate,” Moore told MLB.com. “We’re going to play the best players. Omar is a terrific second baseman. I know offensively he has not performed the way he has liked or the way we expect him to. I just know we’re going to put the best team out there each and every night, and I know Omar is capable of being that guy. But we like Christian Colon, too. But you need them all to win, as you know. It’s a team, and you count on everyone to perform. I don’t know if Omar, at this point, is going to play 162 games.”
Go ahead, look at that last sentence. Moore basically implies they aren’t for sure Infante can stay healthy the whole season. You can understand why, after the list of injuries I mentioned above, but this also makes you wonder if something else is in the mix.
There is something else in the mix, and that ‘something else’ would be hot prospect Raul Mondesi Jr. Mondesi is entering his age 20 season and finished last year in AA Northwest Arkansas in the Royals farm system. Mondesi is still a very raw talent, but it is conceivable he could make a big jump this season. One downside is that Mondesi has only played 18 professional games at second base, although it will be interesting to see what they do with him when he starts the year in the minors. If he is playing second fairly often early on, then it is possible the Royals would be looking at him as a possible solution in the big leagues later in the summer. I don’t think we will see Mondesi in the mix to start the year, but I have a hunch we will see him before the year is up.
So what is the final verdict? Going just off of numbers, it would seem like a dead heat. Infante and Colon’s ‘Steamer Projections’ are fairly similar: Infante has a projected line of .253/.284/.352 with a wRC+(weighted runs created) of 71, while Colon’s line would be .264/.316/..352 with an 83 wRC+. The numbers show that Colon might have a slight edge offensively, but not by much. It would seem Infante would have the edge defensively, which the Royals highly value. Infante would probably also have the edge because of his contract; it’s hard to justify benching the guy who’s making $7.8 million this year, especially since he is almost untradeable. Here is what I believe will happen: Infante will win the job out of Spring Training and will hold onto it until/if he gets hurt. Even if Infante is able to stay healthy, I really believe by August we will see Mondesi holding down the second base job. The Infante-Colon combo is not a permanent answer, especially for a team that has aspirations of making the postseason again this year. Instead it is the current answer, not the permanent one. Come August, second base could look much different for the Royals.
We all know the story of the Kansas City Royals and projections the last couple seasons. Before 2014 Kansas City was projected to finish 79-83 by Baseball Prospectus, in a tie for second in the American League Central with the Cleveland Indians. The Royals did ten games better, finishing 89-73, earning a Wild Card berth and ending up one game short of winning the World Series. In 2015, the Royals were projected to finish(once again by Baseball Prospectus) even worse, 72-90, the second worst projected total in the American League. The Royals would easily eclipse this projection, finishing 95-67, winning the American League Central, claiming home field advantage throughout the playoffs and eventually winning the World Series. So with pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training in less than two weeks, once again the Royals are once again projected to finish 79-83, this time by Fangraphs. Last year, Royals fans were in an uproar over this, feeling like the team was being overlooked and not given the respect they earned after the 2014 World Series. Even into the summer, when Kansas City steamrolled past the 72 win mark, fans would make snide remarks and mock BP, questioning the website and the way they came to their results. But the real problem isn’t Baseball Prospectus or Fangraphs; no, the real problem is that fans(and analysts alike) put too much stock in projections and predictions.
Let’s start with the PECOTA projections. I actually had no issue with the Royals being projected so low, as it made sense to me. Most of their projections are taken off of a players’ past performance and the Royals had a number of players who accumulated poor seasons in 2014. A lot of people just remember the playoffs, when Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer looked like beasts and the Royals looked like an unbeatable locomotive. The truth was that Moustakas had an awful 2014, Hosmer’s wasn’t great and they weren’t alone. A good chunk of the Royals lineup did not fare well, so of course the projections would be lower. Even offseason acquisition Kendrys Morales was coming off of a lackluster campaign, one in which he put up worse numbers than the man he was replacing, Billy Butler. PECOTA puts a lot of stock in past performance, so this made sense. Sam Miller of BP wrote a great article about how they came to these results, in which Miller even admits that they need to work on improving the weight of a good bullpen and excellent defense can have on a team winning. The final paragraph speaks volumes about the projections and why they aren’t perfect:
While PECOTA aspires to be perfect, what it really does is this: It projects players, individually; it converts those performances into expected runs, based on how baseball usually works; then it converts those runs into expected wins, based on how baseball usually works. At each step along the way, it gets harder to be perfect, and the Royals demonstrate that challenge well. Some players did better than we expected; some offered incomplete data on which to project them; some were added to the roster at midseason; some found the right fit. None of us is arrogant enough to think that projection systems are magic; baseball is impossible to predict with the sort of precision that avoids situations like 2015 Royals. We all know we can’t outrun the bear.
To sum this up, the projections are based off of projected numbers put up by each player on the team. If you calculate the players who will get injured or the players who will be acquired within the season, these numbers are bound to be off. In fact, as much as I use BP quite frequently during the season(the yearly projection book is normally right beside my desk), I also know that the projections are just that, not a definite. Just look at last year’s projections: only three teams were expected to win over 90 games. Yep, three total for both leagues. Instead, seven teams finished with over 90 wins while three alone were in the National League Central. So it becomes very obvious that BP’s projections are a starting point, not a literal interpretation of how the season will actually unfold.
Game One of the 2015 World Series-October 27, 2015
Predictions are different than projections in that predictions are purely one person’s opinion. Projections you can actually go back and check the numbers and see how you ended up with the finished results. It’s like when you would show your math homework; if your answer is ‘C’, all you have to do is go back and look at ‘A’ and ‘B’ to figure out how you got to your final answer. Predictions are literally just guesses. Granted, these predictions hold more weight when it is a respected baseball analyst, but at the end of the day they are still guesses. I respect the hell out of guys like Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark, and both of them are around the game every day and are about as knowledgeable as they come in the game. But…their predictions are still just guesses. So why are fans, most notably Royals fans, getting upset that someone essentially has a different opinion than they do?
This is where I laugh at the fan who gets visibly angry that analyst ‘x’ predicted that the Royals won’t get to the playoffs or that they won’t compete at the level they did the year before. To me, all predictions are guesses and more than anything are done for fun. Most analysts(yes, the Rosenthal’s, Stark’s and Gammon’s of the world) would even tell you their guesses are normally way off. So if we all acknowledge the fact that predictions shouldn’t be taken super serious, why do some fans get all worked up about it? The only logical answer is that they want an analyst(or you or me) to agree with them. There seems to be some underlying issue with people who view something like preseason predictions as the expected result and the end all be all of final answers. They are not. If anything, these last couple seasons have proved that with the way the Royals have gone out there and over-exceeded results. I couldn’t tell you if Kansas City used such “guesses” as bulletin board fodder or not, but I’m sure they were aware and promptly did what every other team did: go out and play the games.
July 22 2013
At the end of the day, that is what it all comes down to; actually playing the games. You see, we can estimate what someone like Alex Gordon will do, and we might even be closely accurate, but the players have to go out there and actually play on the field. I am proud to say I absolutely love stats and I freely will admit to being a ‘stat nerd’, but I also realize that these are humans that go out there and play baseball. I say let all the ‘experts’ predict and project that the Royals won’t do this, or won’t do that. Let them say that they don’t hit enough home runs or make too much contact. Because if we have learned anything these last two years, it’s that this Royals team determines their own fate. The unpredictable is almost the norm for this team and that can’t be predicted. So remember that when more projections and predictions pop up soon; the numbers unfortunately can’t measure a player’s heart or will. It can’t predict a five run 8th inning or a mad dash to home with two outs. It can’t measure a team that has an out of this world defense and a cyborg for their closer. Love the numbers, but realize that anything is possible if you put your mind to it.
Spring Training is just around the corner, and there are always a few things you can count on. There is always that one player who is in “the best shape of his life”. Yep, you know the player; he’s the guy trying to bounce back from a down season and looking to put up career high numbers. Then there is the player who would conceivably be in “the worse shape of his life”. That player normally looks he spent all offseason on the couch watching Homer Simpson’s genius plan to be able to work from home by gaining as much weight as humanly possible. This role is normally reserved for Pablo Sandoval(sorry, Panda). Then there is the third type of player at Spring Training, the non-roster invitee who tries to slide into camp inconspicuously while hopefully walking away with an Opening Day spot on the 25 man roster. Most don’t, but there are always a few who make their case and wiggle their way up north. Headed into Spring Training there are a few of these players that will be in Kansas City Royals camp, looking to impress the Royals coaching staff and procuring a job. In fact, there are three in particular who will be vying for a spot that seem to have an outside chance of making the club. So who are these mystery men? Let’s start with a former New York Met looking to wear Royal blue come April.
Dillon Gee will be entering his age 30 season, coming off of an injury riddled 2015 campaign with the Mets. In fact, Gee only appeared in 8 games last year, partially due to a groin injury and partially because the Mets were loaded with a bunch of young power arms(see Syndergaard, Noah or deGrom, Jacob). Plus, Gee didn’t help his own cause by getting bombed in the few starts he was given in 2015. The positive is that Gee is a serviceable arm, one that most major league teams would use as insurance at AAA until he is needed. In other words, there is a good chance Gee will be the 2016 version of Joe Blanton, who turned in a good season for the Royals and Pirates last year, netting him a deal with the Dodgers. Gee won’t overpower you with his fastball(he averaged about 89 mph in 2015)but he knows how to get outs and if paired with the Royals defense he would probably put up some pretty solid numbers. That being said, if Gee gets 8-10 starts for the Royals, someone is either injured or something has gone horribly wrong. I like Dillon Gee as insurance at Omaha, but his chances this spring hinge on the health of the other candidates in the rotation. So unless chicken pox arises in the Royals clubhouse again, it’s a safe bet Gee will be AAA to start the year.
Peter Moylan’s chances of starting the year at Kauffman Stadium are better than Gee’s, but still a bit of an uphill battle for the 37 year old reliever. Age will be a factor for Moylan, although he has never been a guy who relied on his fastball and with his sidearm delivery his whole success is based more off of movement than velocity. Moylan was actually able to come back from a second Tommy John surgery in 2015, although the Braves initially intended him to be a coach in their low minors. Instead, the Braves stumbled and used Moylan out of the pen in September to positive results. For one, he didn’t walk anyone in the 10+ innings he threw, and was able to induce groundballs at a fairly high rate(69%), which we all know is a positive in Kansas City. He also was able to get some movement back on his sinker, which is a major plus for a guy who won’t blow pitches by batters. The Royals bullpen is loaded right now(as we all know), but there is always a chance Moylan could find his way to Kansas City. Louis Coleman was released on Wednesday, giving Moylan one less reliever to fight with for a spot in the pen. Moylan is also good friends with Royals starter Kris Medlen, as the pair were former teammates in Atlanta back in the day. I would say Moylan’s chances of making the team are slim, but did anyone predict he would have the career he has had so far? In other words, there is always a chance.
Then there is Travis Snider. Snider was signed to a minor league deal over this past weekend and is the definition of living off of potential. Snider was once a 1st round draft pick of the Blue Jays back in 2006 and ten years later the baseball world is still expecting him to prove he can be as good as once expected. Over his 8 year career, Snider has performed below league average(93 career OPS+, league average is 100) and has not hit the way scouts once expected him to. There are positives with Snider, like the fact that he is going into only his age 28 season and he isn’t too far off from his career best year in the majors(2014). Looking back at that 2014 campaign, Snider played in 140 games for the Pirates with a line of .264/.338/.438, producing an OPS+ of 117 and a WAR of 2.1. Snider fell back this past season, splitting time in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The other positive for Snider is that the Royals are currently looking at a Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando platoon in right field, so there is a lot of room for someone to step up and make Royals management take notice. The argument could even be made that if Snider showed an ability to get on base on a regular basis he would get a decent amount of playing time. The Royals at this point know what they are getting with Dyson and Orlando; Snider is the wild card that has the ability to open some eyes. There is a good chance Snider could make the opening day roster as backup outfielder and work his way to a good chunk of at bats. I don’t know if Snider will ever turn into a .300 hitter or a 20 home run guy, but a reliable bat who can get on base could work just as well when it comes to playing time.I have to say, Snider’s chances are good this spring but like most things, I am basing this off potential.
There aren’t many spots available on the Royals roster as we head into Spring Training, but just look at last year. Ryan Madson came into camp as a guy who hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2011 and ended up not only making the roster, but being a reliable cog in the pen for the entire 2015 season. A few spots are open for the taking, and any of the three names mentioned above could sneak their way onto the team. That’s the great thing about spring; hope springs eternal, even for grizzled veterans. Even if they don’t, the Royals will have depth which is always a coveted part of any winning team. These signings are proof that the Royals roster will be just as deep in 2016 as it was during their run to a world championship.
Earlier today I did a quick ‘Q & A’ with former Kansas City Star Royals beat writer, Andy McCullough. Andy covered the Royals during both the 2014 and 2015 seasons so he was around for their playoff runs during both years. This is just a quick few questions about his time in Kansas City and covering the team during their resurgence.
1. You went from covering the Mets & the Yankees to covering the Royals for the Kansas City Star in 2014. What was your opinion of the team(contenders, pretenders, etc.) headed into Spring Training that year & in your mind when was the point where the team seemed to shift from just playoff contenders to serious championship material?
I thought they would be a good team and compete for the division. The turning point during the postseason was after they won the Wild Card game.
2. What was it like going from big market teams like the Yankees & Mets to a small market team like the Royals? Was there a difference in how you covered the teams?
The biggest difference is the postgame interviews were shorter because you don’t have 15 people in the scrum, all asking questions. I did not cover the team any differently.
3. The Royals fanbase is quite rabid to say the least. Were you surprised at how passionate the fans were & how did you handle some of the crazier ones on Twitter?
I wasn’t surprised by the passion, but I was definitely impressed by the crowds during these past two postseasons. Great atmosphere. I muted or blocked a lot of dopes on Twitter.
4. Was there a major difference in the team when comparing Spring Training in 2014 & Spring Training this past year?
Teams sound confident, every single year, in spring training. In 2014, I suppose it appeared more like false bravado, because they hadn’t actually won anything yet. In 2015, they had some evidence to back up their confidence.
5. The two most memorable articles you wrote(in my mind) was the recap of the 2014 Wild Card game & the Lorenzo Cain piece. Did you feel it was fairly easy to find compelling stories for this team & do you think you’ll ever cover a team with as much material as the 2014-2015 Royals had?
There was a lot of untilled ground when I took over the beat in 2014, because the team hadn’t spent much time in the national spotlight. It’s never easy to find interesting stories, but there was certainly some low-hanging fruit. I hope I’ll find a team that’s just as compelling soon enough, but I’m not sure I will.
6. Finally, looking back how do you view your time in Kansas City?
It was an OK time. Underrated city for Vietnamese food.
7. Oh, one more question for old times sake: any word on Kyle Zimmer?
I hope he starts the All-Star Game in 2017.
I would like to thank Andy for taking the time to answer these questions. McCullough is now working for the LA Times, as he is their beat writer for the Dodgers. You can find Andy’s coverage of the Dodgers at LATimes.com and he is a great follow on Twitter. Sure, he covers the Dodgers now, but if you love baseball(and some humor), McCullough is a good follow no matter the team. Glad us Royals fans had McCullough to guide us through the last two years. He did a great job and in a lot of ways will always be connected to this team. Thanks, Andy.
I love the Winter Meetings. I have since I was a kid. There is nothing quite like the insanity of four days of trades, signings and now rumors of where a number of baseball players could be inhabiting for the upcoming season. All has been quiet on the Kansas City Royals front(well, except for a few minor moves) but it was inevitable it wouldn’t stay that way forever. So when news broke Monday morning that a few moves were very close, I figured it was time to take a peak at the two new-old signings.
The first was the re-signing of right handed starter Chris Young. Young was a great signing this past year for Royals GM Dayton Moore, as he would take a flyer on the 6′ 10″ righty during Spring Training. Most of us felt like Young would be a solid pick-up, if for no reason other than the fact that he is a notorious flyball pitcher, which works well in Kauffman Stadium. Young was even better than advertised, starting 18 games while throwing out of the pen for 16 more, with a 3.06 ERA over 123 innings, an ERA+ of 135 and an FIP of 4.52. His GB/FB rate was on pace with what he has done over his career and was solid in whatever role manager Ned Yost had for him.That flexibility turned out to be a Godsend for Kansas City, as Young excelled in every role he was given, but none bigger than Game 1 of the World Series. The Royals needed someone to come out of the pen, and despite the fact that Young was the expected starter for Game 4, was called upon to eat some innings that night. All he did was pitch 3 no-hit innings, walking 1 and striking out 4. He was just what the Royals needed and ended up getting the victory after Eric Hosmer’s sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 14th.
The Royals inked Young to a new 2 year, $11.5 million deal(with a 3rd year as a mutual option; yes, Dayton loves his mutual options!) with the deal paying Young $4.25 million in 2016 and 5.75 million in 2017. Young can also earn bonuses based on games on the roster, which sounds like a sweet deal for someone as consistent as Young. Considering what all Young did for Kansas City this year, it’s not hard to see why the Royals wanted to bring him back:
“Chris Young is special,” Moore said from his suite in the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. “He’s an unbelievable competitor. You can make the case that he’s the MVP of our pitching staff. And we’re very proud that he’s returning to Kansas City.”
I really like this signing, as Young can fill multiple roles for this team and is a great competitor. Part of what makes Young so great is the fact that he doesn’t have to worry about a loss of velocity, as he already doesn’t throw very hard and works more on location and deception than anything else. It appears Young will start the year in the rotation, so it will be interesting to see if the Royals go after another starter, as a name like Scott Kazmir has been mentioned so far as a possible acquisition.
The other signing for Kansas City was the return of former All-Star closer Joakim Soria. Now, this deal hasn’t been 100% finalized yet(Soria still has to take his physical) but the word is that Soria would come in on a 3 year, $25 million dollar contract(with a fourth year mutual option). There apparently is some language in the deal they are working on where Soria would have incentives for starting; I wouldn’t look too deep into that, as it seems like a moot point. In other words, he won’t be starting unless the rest of the rotation falls victim to chicken pox(oh, wait…). One positive for Kansas City is the fact that most of the Royals management is familiar with Soria and know what he is capable of performing for the team out of the bullpen. In fact, manager Ned Yost sounds as if he is anxiously awaiting Soria’s return to Kansas City:
“Just loved his professionalism,” manager Ned Yost said. “Loved his makeup and his composure. Loved his ability to field his position, control the running game, execute pitches. A lot like Chris Young. He’s just a professional performer when he steps on the mound and still very, very productive. Would love to have him.”
Last year Soria split time between Detroit and Pittsburgh and performed admirably in whatever role was chosen for him. It appears at this point that he will be a setup guy for Wade Davis, so I can easily see him pitching the 8th while sliding Kelvin Herrera back to the 7th inning. Soria’s numbers looked good last year, accumulating an 2.53 ERA over 67.2 innings, with an ERA+ of 156 and an FIP of 3.71. Soria also had 24 saves(if you like that sort of thing) in 2015, the most he has had in a season since his days in Kansas City. The most impressive number from Soria this past season was an increased velocity out of his fastball. In 2015 he had an average fastball speed of 92.1 mph, his highest average speed throughout his entire career. It would appear on the surface as if his arm is fine and possibly in the best shape it has been in years.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
But I have my concerns. Soria has had two Tommy John surgeries so there will always be a concern that another arm injury could finish him off. Also, it will be hard to insure Soria because of those surgeries, which doesn’t seem like a big deal but if you look at a situation like Jason Vargas, where the Royals will get most of his 2016 contract covered if he sits out the entire year, you could see the importance of being able to insure a pitcher’s arm. There has long been talk about how the Royals waited too long to try and deal Soria, and then lost him for his final Kansas City season to that 2nd Tommy John surgery. But his health isn’t the only problem I have with the Soria signing.
The other aspect of this signing I have issue with is the size of the contract, both dollars and years. For one, averaging over $8 million a year(and knowing Dayton the deal will be smaller for the first year and gradually increase) just seems like too much for any reliever to me, unless you are Mariano Rivera or Dan Quisenberry. I know it is what the market is dictating right now, but I don’t agree with it. Finding hard throwing arms to fill your bullpen is fairly easy at this point and also fairly cheap. So to spend that money on a setup guy just seems almost comical. Throw in that the deal is 3 years and it goes from bad to worse. No offense to Joakim; I love the guy and I’m already looking forward to hearing ‘Welcome to the Jungle’ blare when he comes into a game at Kauffman Stadium. But for a guy with his injury history and where he is at in his career, 3 years just feels like too much. Once again, I feel the Royals could have gotten a solid reliever cheaper and probably even younger and they could have done the same job Soria will do for Kansas City. I’m glad Soria is returning to where he started, but sometimes that same magic doesn’t return just because you do.
But the best returning news came Monday afternoon thanks to an interview with skipper Ned Yost:
Ned says Rusty Kuntz will be back as 1B coach #Royals
Seriously, best. news. ever. Sure, part of it is the glorious hair that Kuntz rocks. I’m sure even part of it is his name that people still butcher. But the main part is that Kuntz is a big part of that Royals coaching staff. He is the one who works with shifting the outfielders and moving them around based on which hitter is at the plate. He also works with the team on baserunning and was a big part of a big play in the ALCS against Toronto, as he picked up on something David Price had been doing and took advantage of it. Kuntz is a vital part of the Royals success and I’m glad they convinced him to return for at least one more year. Watch out ladies, the ‘Kuntz is Loose’!
…and so goes day one of the Winter Meetings! There are still a few days left, so plenty of time for Dayton Moore to continue his holiday shopping for the Royals. It will be interesting to see if a couple of the main outfielders on the market start to sign if the other dominoes(ie. Alex Gordon) fall after that happens. All that can be said at this point is the dull period of the offseason is probably over; time to turn the ‘Hot Stove’ up to 11!
We are creeping into the second week of December and very little has occurred with the Kansas City Royals transactions page since they wrapped up the World Series. It’s a bit odd at this point in the offseason to see Dayton Moore so quiet after all those years of moves being made within the first week of the end of the season. All has been quiet until the other day, when the Royals made a few notable moves to add to the ledger.
Let’s start with closer Greg Holland being non-tendered a contract. This wasn’t a shocking move, as it had been discussed almost immediately after everyone found out Holland would be having Tommy John surgery and would be missing the 2016 campaign. The good news is that this move was purely financial, as the Royals didn’t want to be on the hook for close to $10 million next year for a pitcher who would be sitting on the sideline. This also means the Royals are open to re-signing Holland to a new deal, possibly a two year deal that would be low for this upcoming season while much larger salary for year two of the deal, probably with a bunch of incentives. I would say the chance of Kansas City and Holland coming to agreement on a new deal is pretty good, as both parties want to stay together and understand why this business decision was made. I would expect Holland back in the fold fairly soon and hopefully will make his Royals return in 2017.
The other move made by Kansas City was acquiring backup catcher Tony Cruz from St. Louis. On first glance this seemed like a move designed to make him the new backup to Salvador Perez while pushing Drew Butera(yes, I almost just wrote ‘Sal’ instead of ‘Drew’; his father would be proud) out the non-tendered door. But then the Royals offered Drew a contract, leaving the Royals with two options to play in about 30 games next year(if that). So it would appear from the outside that these two catchers will be battling in Spring Training to see who heads North with the team, and who ventures to Omaha(possibly; last year’s AAA catcher, Francisco Pena, was claimed by Baltimore). So who would be the better option?
Offensively this might be a bit of a push. Butera last year had a line of .196/.252/.252 with an OPS+ of 40 while Cruz had a line of .204/.235/.310 with an OPS+ of 47. Over their careers, Butera has an OPS+ of 41 while Cruz’s is 58. Cruz looks to be the better hitter, even if by just the smallest of margin’s. It does appear Cruz has more pop in his bat(.310 to .266 career slugging percentage) while Butera seems to be the more patient hitter(Cruz has averaged a tad over 6 walks a year over his career, Butera almost 8 per year). Offensively, neither one of these guys are going to earn their job with their work with the bat, so let’s check the glove work.
Looking at dWAR, Butera has quite the advantage over Cruz, 2.3 to -0.4. It seems as if Butera is the better defender, which was my initial thought before I started breaking down the stats. I was actually surprised though; Butera only has about 45 more career games than Cruz, despite Butera being 3 years older than Cruz. It also appears as if their offense drags them down, as both have negative career WAR; -1.7 to -2.8, Butera over Cruz. Now I can say I haven’t seen as much of Cruz’s work, but I’ve long enjoyed Butera’s work behind the plate, where he is known for his defense and good game calling skills. I’m not 100% for sure where Royals management head is on the backup catcher situation, but I know manager Ned Yost(a former catcher) prefers his backup to be solid defensively. It would appear if that was the case again this spring, you will see Butera backing up Perez. I wouldn’t mind keeping Cruz down in AAA if he is open to that, and once again, I’m not entirely for sure what the Royals braintrust is thinking. If I had to make a guess, this move was purely for depth, which is never a bad move for any team.
So nothing major has occurred yet for the Royal roster, but the Winter Meetings are this week, so something is bound to happen. There is already talk that Kansas City is close to a deal with Chris Young and word crept out today that they have interest in lefty Scott Kazmir. So more than likely, expect something to happen this week in Nashville. This news also brightened my day today:
#Royals have not given up on re-signing Alex Gordon. Still waiting for OF market to fully define.
April 13, 2015One of the great honors of being a member of the IBWAA is that come September we vote on the season awards, just like the BBWAA. Last year I filled out my first ballot and I learned a few things. One, never turn in your ballot until sometime in the final week. I turned mine in about two weeks early and was kicking myself within a week. Yep, one’s mind can change. Second, there is no way not to take this serious. None. I look at stats all year long, and even still I’m not for sure it compared to the number crunching I did the last two years before turning in my winners. With that said, I was very pleased with the end results and feel confident throwing out how I voted for the year-end awards. So without further ado, here are my picks for the 2015 Major League Baseball season awards.
American League MVP: Mike Trout
I know the consensus was this award should go to Toronto’s Josh Donaldson, and I won’t tell you that is the wrong vote. No, Donaldson is just as deserving as Trout and either vote is a solid vote. That being said, I give Trout the edge for a few reasons. Let’s start with the main stats that everyone loves: They tied for homers, Donaldson had about 30 more RBI’s, Donaldson edged Trout in batting average, while Trout had the advantage in On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage(in fact Trout led the league in slugging). Now to the meaty stats: Trout over Donaldson in OPS+, 176 to 155. bWAR has Trout over Donaldson, 9.4 to 8.8. fWAR has Trout slightly edging out Donaldson, 9.0 to 8.7. Donaldson does have the edge defensively by quite a large margin, but not enough that I would give the win to him. All that is a compelling argument for Mike Trout, as most of the numbers are in his favor. But here is where the scale is tipped for me…Trout spent part of the year dealing with nagging injuries, as is evident if you look at his numbers month by month. Trout not only came back to raise those numbers, he also practically put the entire Angels team on his shoulders in September, keeping them in the pennant race into the final week. In fact Trout’s line in September looks like video game numbers: .315/.430/.648 with 8 homers and 16 RBI’s. Yes, Josh Donaldson was on a playoff team, but if you take him out of Toronto’s stellar lineup you still have a team that could probably win the American League East. Take Trout out of the Angels lineup and that team is out of the race before September. At the end of the day, Trout was more valuable to his team than Donaldson, thus he is my winner for AL MVP.
My top 3: 1-Trout, 2-Donaldson, 3-Cain
IBWAA Winner: Josh Donaldson
BBWAA Winner: Josh Donaldson
National League MVP: Bryce Harper
Very rarely does a player have a season where he is sooooo dominate that they should be a no doubt MVP, where an unanimous vote seems like the logical way to go. But this year in the National League, Bryce Harper was ‘The Man’ and there really is no debate. Harper, in his age 22 season, led the National League in so many categories that I almost thought he led the league in saves and wins. Harper was the front man in runs, home runs, On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, OPS+ and both fWAR and bWAR. Harper had the type of season we all expected when he was selected by the Nationals as the #1 Draft Pick in 2010. The funny part is he still has room to improve, which is frightening if you are an opposing pitcher. Harper led this Nationals team to the brink of the playoffs this year and outside of the stupidity of Jonathan Papelbon, he would have about as perfect a season as a player can have. The one stat that blows my mind more than any is his OPS+, a staggering 195(remember, 100 is average). His season is the 71st best in baseball history, which seems great but not out of this world stupendous. If you take out all the players in the ‘Dead-Ball Era’, Harper’s season is the 50th best of all-time. I decided to go a step further, going off of seasons since 1950. Taking that into affect, Harper had the 24th best season by a batter in the last 65 years! What this amounts up to is a without a doubt MVP and possibly the beginning of a career we could be discussing in detail within the next 5-8 years.
My Top 3: 1-Harper, 2-Goldschmidt, 3-Votto
IBWAA Winner: Bryce Harper
BBWAA Winner: Bryce Harper
(Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
American League Cy Young: David Price
There was a number of awards this year that felt like a tight race and this would be another one, as David Price and Dallas Keuchel both seemed like worthy winners. At the end of the day, I chose Price and the more you digest the numbers you can see why he has started to grow a resume that puts him as one of the top elite starters in baseball. Price only lead the league in ERA(2.45) and pitchers WAR, but it was all the other numbers together that make his case. Price is no lower than 6th in Innings Pitched, Wins, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, Left On Base %, ERA(1st), FIP(2nd in the league), xFIP, and fWAR(1st with 6.4, Keuchel is 3rd with 6.1). Price did all of these while switching teams in July, as he was traded to Toronto and helped them clinch a playoff spot while driving them to the ALCS. I wouldn’t disparage a vote for Keuchel, but at the end of the day it felt like this was Price’s award to win so my vote went to him in a highly contested race.
My Top 3: 1-Price, 2-Keuchel, 3-Sale
IBWAA Winner: Dallas Keuchel
BBWAA Winner: Dallas Keuchel
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
National League Cy Young: Jake Arrieta
It was a magical season in 2015 for the Chicago Cubs and a big part of that was because of Jake Arrieta. This was another close vote, as Zack Greinke of the Dodgers also put forth a Cy Young caliber season and a vote for him also made sense. I went back and forth on this award more than once, but finally settled on Arrieta for his work down the stretch. Arrieta led the National League in Wins, Games Started, Complete Games, Shutouts, H/9, HR/9, while finishing 2nd in pitchers WAR, Innings pitched, FIP, xFIP and ERA, and 3rd in Left on Base %. What Arrieta did the last couple months of the season really set him apart from both Greinke and Kershaw, as Arrieta made sure whenever he pitched that the Cubs more than had a chance to win that day. From August through the end of the season, Arrieta was 11-0 with an ERA of 0.41(allowing only 4 ER in 88.1 innings), including a no-hitter and 2 shutouts. While the Cubs were fighting for their playoff lives, Arrieta stepped up and made this a season to remember. Greinke and Kershaw both had amazing seasons, but Arrieta was out of this world when it counted the most.
My Top 3: 1-Arrieta, 2-Greinke, 3-Kershaw
IBWAA Winner: Jake Arrieta
BBWAA Winner: Jake Arrieta
American League Rookie of the Year: Francisco Lindor
2015 was a banner year for rookie shortstops in the American League, as both Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor would get called up mid-season and were sparkplugs for their team’s as they tried to lock up a postseason berth. Correa’s team would advance, while Lindor’s Indians came up just short, which I’m sure to some would give Correa the edge. But what on the surface seems like a blow away win for Correa as ROY, I give the nod to Lindor and it isn’t as close as you think. I know a lot of press has been given to Correa’s offense, as they should. Correa reminds me of Alex Rodriguez early in his career, as he combines power and speed and appears to only grow from here. But if you want the whole package, Lindor is your man. While Correa led with the power numbers, Lindor led in batting average(.313 to .279), and On-Base Percentage(.353 to .345), while categories like wOBA and wRC+ were close enough that it could be a scratch. What pushed Lindor over the edge for me was his WAR, and more specifically, dWAR. Lindor led Correa this past season in bWAR(4.6 to 4.1) and fWAR(4.6 to 3.3) but defensively Lindor was a top notch defender while Correa was closer to average. This defensive edge gave Lindor the nod in my eyes as their dWAR wasn’t really close at all(1.7 to 0.6) and Lindor led Correa defensively in 2015, 14.9 to Correa’s -1.6. A vote for Correa isn’t a bad vote, but in my eyes the battle of rookie shortstops in the American League was fronted by Lindor in this rookie campaign.
My Top 3: 1-Lindor, 2-Correa, 3-Sano
IBWAA Winner: Carlos Correa
BBWAA Winner: Carlos Correa
National League Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant
It wasn’t just the home runs that won Kris Bryant this award. Okay, the home runs helped, but Bryant, as much as he is known for his power, is also a hitter with a good eye and a knack for learning from his mistakes. So in his rookie campaign it’s no shock that Bryant stood head and shoulders above his peers. Bryant led all NL rookies with 26 homers(tied with Joc Pederson), but also led in On-Base Percentage and fWAR while being second in wRC+. Maybe the most surprising item from Bryant this year was the amount of positions Bryant played, as manager Joe Maddon bounced him around the diamond. His main position was 3B, but he also saw time at 1B, and all three outfield positions. For a guy who had only briefly experimented with the outfield, Bryant held his own and even held up a slightly above average dWAR. There are parts of Bryant’s game that still need work; he did lead the league in strikeouts, with 199. But that can be worked on and more than likely will be in Spring Training. Overall it was a positive rookie season for this young slugger and he looks like he will be one of the cornerstones of this Cubs team for a number of years, as rookies Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber also saw time in Chicago this season. Be scared, National League pitchers. Be very afraid.
My Top 3: 1-Bryant, 2-Duffy, 3-Kang
IBWAA Winner: Kris Bryant
BBWAA Winner: Kris Bryant
(Pioneer Press: Jean Pieri)
American League Manager of the Year: Paul Molitor
The Manager of the Year awards have gotten some flak this offseason as being an award just about “who’s team improved the most from the previous year”. It’s hard to argue with some of that reasoning, as Ned Yost and John Gibbons are nowhere on this list while their teams were the elite of the American League. I can say I based my ballot off of what manager did the most with the least, which lead me to the Minnesota Twins Paul Molitor. In Molitor’s first season he did what no one(and I do mean no one) thought would happen; over .500 record, contending for a playoff spot into the final week of the season and 2nd place in the American League Central. Credit goes to Jeff Banister of the Rangers for dealing with early season injuriesand guiding his team to the American League West title. Kudos to AJ Hinch of the Astros for bringing this young Houston team to the playoffs and one game away from the ALCS. But I figured both teams would be better this year and had even mentioned Houston being a sleeper pick back in early April:
The ‘surprise’ team of the American League could very well be Houston, as they’ve got a nice mix of veterans and youngsters that could be better sooner rather than later.
But Minnesota? Nope. Look, I have praised the Twins young prospects for the last few years, knowing they are lurking in the background. But the thought was 2016 would be the first year you would see Minnesota start contending again. Instead, Molitor was able to mesh all the young talent they have with veterans like Torii Hunter and Brian Dozier to keep this team in contention all through the season. Oh, and this was also Molitor’s first season managing in the majors. What Banister and Hinch did was great work; what Molitor did was borderline ‘miracle worker’. That is why I chose Paul Molitor for American League Manager of the Year.
My Top 3: 1-Molitor, 2-Banister, 3-Hinch
IBWAA Winner: Jeff Banister
BBWAA Winner: Jeff Banister
National League Manager of the Year: Terry Collins
People love Joe Maddon and what he did for the Cubs this year, and he deserves the praise he will get for getting Chicago to the playoffs. I love Maddon as much as the next guy, but figured he would turn that Cubs team around. Which is why my pick for NL Manager of the Year is Terry Collins. The hope when the season started was that the Mets would compete with the Nationals during the season and maybe make the playoffs as a wild card. Instead, the Nationals blew a tire down the stretch and the Mets sauntered in to grab the NL East. In July the Mets were contending, but didn’t look like they would be winning the division. The offense was struggling, but the rotation had brought some young arms to help and Matt Harvey looked like the Harvey of old. Yoenis Cespedes was acquired before the trade deadline and the Mets were soon off to the races. Collins did a great job this year managing Harvey(and his agent), and the youngsters while also getting veterans enough playing time to appease them. New York had an interesting mix of players this year and Collins dealt with it like a pro. Credit goes to Maddon and Clint Hurdle on great years for their teams, but it didn’t feel like they had to juggle as much as Collins.
My Top 3: 1-Collins, 2-Maddon, 3-Hurdle
IBWAA Winner: Joe Maddon
BBWAA Winner: Joe Maddon
American League Reliever of the Year: Wade Davis
Yes, the Yankees duo of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had great years, as did Zach Britton of Baltimore and Cody Allen of Cleveland. But to me, there is no more dominate reliever in the game right now than Wade Davis. All Davis did this year was put up back to back seasons of 1.00 or below ERA’s while flat out dominating the competition. For relievers in the American League, Davis was 6th in fWAR(2.0), 7th in HR/9(he gave up one this year, to Jose Bautista), led in Left On Base %(92.2), 1st in ERA(0.94), 7th in FIP(2.29), averaged over 10 K/9, and had a ridiculous ERA+ of 444(100 is league average). Davis also closed some games this year, as he had mostly been the setup guy for the Royals in 2014. Greg Holland dealt with some injuries this year, and in September when it was announced Holland was done for the year and would be requiring Tommy John Surgery, Davis slid into the closer role, a role that felt already like it belonged to him. Trust me, you can make the argument for any of the relievers I mentioned above but none of them make a batter feel defeated before he even steps to the plate like Wade Davis.
My Top 3: 1-Davis, 2-Betances, 3-Allen
IBWAA Winner: Andrew Miller
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger
National League Reliever of the Year: Aroldis Chapman
Did you read what I wrote above about Wade Davis? The same pretty much goes for Aroldis Chapman of Cincinnati. Chapman is one of those relievers who is practically unhittable and continued his dominance in 2015. Chapman led the ‘Senior Circuit’ for relievers in K/9(an astounding 15.74), ERA(1.63), fWAR(2.5), 4th in LOB%(88.5), 2nd in FIP(1.94), 4th in xFIP(2.49) and an ERA+ of 244. Chapman had some solid competition this year in Trevor Rosenthal of St. Louis and Sergio Romo of San Francisco, but alas neither had the dominance of Chapman. The interesting part is that Cincinnati is a team that probably won’t be contending in the near future and Chapman’s value has never been higher. It’s a possibility that when the 2016 awards are handed out a year from now, Chapman will be with a different team. The possibility of Aroldis Chapman on a contender makes for a interesting scenario come playoff time.
My Top 3: 1-Chapman, 2-Rosenthal, 3-Romo
IBWAA Winner: Mark Melancon
So those are my picks this year. Go ahead, debate them or even agree and with some of these races the debate could rage on till the end of time. What I can say is that I feel confident with my votes and really felt like I crunched a bunch of numbers to get to these decisions. Be ready though; once award season is over, that means the Hot Stove season starts to pick up. Who knows, we could have a 2016 award winner switching teams this offseason. That is one of the great things about baseball; all it could take is a switch in teams to ignite a player to greatness. Although I have the feeling I will be talking about Mike Trout again next year…and Bryce Harper as well. Yep, baseball is great my friend!
We are now three games deep into the 2015 World Series and I think it is safe to say that what we have gotten so far is one instant classic, with two games that are close early on before one team breaks away in the middle innings. What we have also learned is that there is no shortage of talking points, some worthwhile while others are downright pointless. So what is worth discussing? Without further ado, here are some topics I have found worth my time so far in this last series of the year.
Let’s start with what has been one of the Kansas City Royals weaknesses in 2015, starting pitching. For a team with as many questions within their rotation as a 6 year old walking in on their parents “sharing a moment”, it sure appears as if this has been one of their strong points so far in the World Series. Yordano Ventura’s start aside(and we will get to him in just a moment), the Royals rotation has strung together game scores of 50 & 80. Edinson Volquez ran into a little bit of trouble on Tuesday, but was able to throw 6 solid innings, allowing three runs. It was a solid effort from the Royals most consistent starter this year, all while being unaware of his father passing away earlier in the day. This was followed the next night by quite possibly the best start ever by a Kansas City pitcher in the playoffs:
When Johnny Cueto is on his game, he is a force to be reckoned with. Cueto pitched a complete game 2-hitter, only allowing one run on the way to putting the Royals up two games to none in the series. Cueto has been very inconsistent during his tenure in Kansas City, but this start(and also the ALDS start against Houston) is why the Royals picked him up at the deadline. Cueto won’t be coming back next year but that wasn’t the point of his acquisition. The point was to get a big game pitcher for big games in the playoffs. Hey, he might go out there in his next outing and stink up the joint, but at least he has had two stellar starts for the Royals this postseason, putting them in a better position to reach their goal: a championship. The Mets have a number of young fireballers in their rotation, but so far they have been outpitched by Kansas City’s rotation. That is, except for Ventura…
Yordano Ventura did not have a good start in Game 3. He was pulled in the 4th inning, and the big concern was his dip in velocity. What is normally mid to upper 90’s was 92-94 mph most of the night. Obviously when his fastball loses the extra gas he becomes more hittable, but an old friend seemed to show up as well: pitching from the stretch.
John Smoltz caught this first. Yordano Ventura has faced 3 hitters so far out of the stretch. Homer. Homer. Double.
It doesn’t sound like anyone has an idea why ‘Ace’ had such a loss in velo, but it seemed to take his confidence with it. The Mets were nailing his fastball, making his other pitches less effective in the process:
The Mets were 5-for-8 with 2 HR, 2B against Ventura's fastball Friday. Opp. hitters now 18-50 (.360) vs Ventura's fastball in the postseason
So where does this leave the Royals going forward in this series? It leaves them with another question mark in the series, a rather huge one considering he would be on schedule to pitch a Game 7 if they get that far. That begs the question: Are you comfortable with Ventura starting an elimination game for Kansas City with it all on the line?
A lot of press has been given to leadoff hitter Alcides Escobar this postseason, but Ben Zobrist has been just as efficient batting in the second spot in the order. Zobrist has been 4 for 15 so far in the World Series, including three doubles and two runs scored so far. In fact, Zobrist has been accumulating doubles like crazy this postseason:
#Royals Ben Zobrist now has 7 2B this #postseason — tying an American League record.
It has been a productive October so far, as Zobrist has a line of .310/.359/.534 with 9 extra base hits, 6 RBI’s and 6 walks. The argument can be made that Escobar has been the ‘Most Valuable Royal’ so far this month, but Zobrist’s name could also be picked out of the hat. While Cueto’s acquisition has only paid off in spurts, Zobrist’s has been a constant and steady win for Kansas City.
Speaking of excellent moves by GM Dayton Moore, Chris Young not only turned in a really good regular season, but he has been as reliable as any other arm for the Royals in October. In 3 games this postseason, Young has thrown 11.2 innings, giving up 3 runs while striking out 15. All of a sudden Young has become a strikeout pitcher, and in Game 1 he would do something he hasn’t done since 2009:
Pitches Chris Young has thrown 90 MPH+ by year since 2008: 2015- 8 (last night) 2014- 0 2013- 0 2012- 0 2011- 0 2010- 0 2009- 2 2008- 36
Yep, Chris Young reached 90+ mph 8 times on that night. He has dealt with some shoulder issues in-between that span, but it’s obvious his adrenaline was pumping as he pitched 3 solid, shutout innings in that outing. In fact, Young’s performance in extra innings possibly has been the key Royals pitching performance in this series, outside of maybe Cueto. All of this from a guy who wasn’t offered a major league contract all winter until the Royals offered him one as Spring Training had already begun.
A couple of big achievements for Kansas City this postseason has put Eric Hosmer and Alcides Escobar in the Royals postseason record book:
Alcides Escobar has set a #Royals franchise record with his 21st hit this #postseason.
Now, you do need to put these numbers in proper context. There is now an extra round of playoffs(two if you count the Wild Card game)which obviously means more games. But they are still big achievements, especially since a number of Royals appeared in consecutive years in the late 70’s. In fact, players like George Brett, Hal McRae and Willie Wilson played in not only those playoff teams in the 70’s, but also in 1980 and 1985. It really goes to show how solid the Royals bats have been these last two years in postseason play.
Speaking of those Royals bats, the question was asked before the beginning of the World Series ‘how would a strikeout rotation like the Mets have do against a team that doesn’t hardly strike out?’. Well, the first two games appeared to show the Royals ‘make contact’ offense was superior to the Mets power arms. In fact, Jacob deGrom seemed to really struggle against this Royals offense:
Numbers worth repeating: deGrom threw 94 pitches, and of those, the Royals fouled off 23, and had only three missed swings. 3.
The other question was how would the Royals, the team with the best average against 95+ fastballs this year, do against a a high velocity Mets team? Well, early on the narrative got shifted on Kansas City:
For all the hype the #Royals got for hitting 95 MPH+. They are 1 for 20 vs 95 MPH+ in WS. 19 for 62 (.306) vs all pitches less than 95 MPH
Early on, it appears both teams have adjusted. The Royals have adjusted and hit better against the fastball while the Mets have adjusted, looking more for pitches they can handle and trying to drive them. This normally makes for a solid series.
And finally, there were a lot of questions being asked when Raul A. Mondesi was put on the Royals World Series roster, especially considering he has never appeared in a major league game. Well, you can cross that off the list, as he pinch hit on Friday, striking out as he did something no one has ever done since the beginning of the ‘Live Ball Era’:
#Royals Raul Mondesi is the first player to debut in the #WorldSeries since Bug Holliday on Oct 17, 1885, when games were just exhibition.
It’s a lot of pressure for a young kid, and he does appear to have a bright future in front of him. But if he makes another appearance in this series(besides pinch running) then that means something has gone awfully wrong. I look forward to seeing him soon, but more like 2016 soon.
Obviously, I want the Royals to come away with their first World Championship in 30 years, but I also like the idea of a nice back and forth World Series that goes at least six games. So far this has looked like a good matchup, one that could see even more surprises. We have already seen one classic game, so don’t be shocked if another one is in our future. All I know for sure is that October has become a month of excitement, stress, and an extreme lack of sleep. In all honesty, I wouldn’t have it any other way. All that is left to do is to ‘Take the Crown’!
A couple times a year, the venom comes out in me. It’s a very specific time and it happens for a very specific reason. It happens because the Kansas City Royals play their state rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals. Look, I respect the Cardinals organization and think they do a top notch job with their scouting and development throughout their minor league system. It’s obvious by the way the team churns out player after player that they know what they are doing. No, my distaste for this team is purely on their fanbase. You know, the ones that one time about 20 years ago were appointed “the best fans in baseball” by The Sporting News, a company based in St. Louis. The thing is, even though many of the fans there are fine, great humans and very respectful(Hi Ryan!), there have many I have met that are far from it. Every fanbase has them(I know some Royals fans that I wish I didn’t know), but there seems to be more of a sense of entitlement from St. Louis fans. So it brightens my day a little bit more when the Royals beat the Cardinals. Yes, I get a bit more joy from it then I should. Luckily, we saw 2 wins from Kansas City in this series, even if one of them was a rain shortened affair. So how did it come about? Just read on…
Series MVP: Kendrys Morales
I will admit it; I didn’t like the Royals signing Morales. I felt his 2014 was the beginning of his regression, not the fact that he had missed Spring Training and didn’t play until June. Sure, we are only 2 months into the season but so far Morales has made me look like a big dummy. All he has done so far in 2015 is lead the league in RBI’s, be near the top in doubles, put up an OPS+ of 135 and a WAR of 1.1(which is all offense at this point since he hasn’t played in the field yet). This series he started out with a bang, as he would club a 3 run homer in the 1st inning:
Morales would follow that up in the 3rd inning with another blast to right field:
So if you are keeping count at home, that is 5 runs for Morales, 0 for the Cardinals. Yep, that was all the offense the Royals would need that night, as they would go on to shutout the team with the best record in the National League. Morales would end up 4 for 9 against the Cardinals over the weekend, scoring 3 runs while raising his slugging percentage by 45 points. I’ve recently thought about who in this lineup would be missed the most if they ended up M.I.A. and if it isn’t Mike Moustakas(who the Royals did miss in the Texas series) then it would be Morales. Hopefully he keeps it up and he can continue making the case for American League comeback player of the year, which is seems like he is on track for.
Pitching Performance of Series: Chris Young
When Young signed with the Royals in March, it seemed like the rotation was already set and Young would be the odd man out. The team explained early on that Young would be on the Opening Day roster, even if that meant he started the year as a long reliever. I was personally fine with this, as every team needs extra pitching at some point in the season and Young was coming off being named the ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ for Seattle. Young got his first start of the year on May 1 and since then he has probably been the Royals best starter. On Friday, Young continued his high level of performance with another stellar outing against the Cardinals. Young got 6 innings of work in, giving up 6 hits, and no runs while walking 2 and striking out 2. His ERA lowered to 0.78…and 0.40 in his 4 starts!
Six scoreless from Chris Young. He's given up one ER in 22 2/3 IP as a starter. Gonna be tough for KC to send him back to the bullpen.
In my eyes Young deserves to stay in the rotation until he proves otherwise. With Danny Duffy scuffling and Jason Vargas on the disabled list, it is an easy answer; Young stays put. But I have a feeling at some point a harder decision will need to be made…and if Young is still worthy, he should still be holding onto a spot in the rotation.
#ShortstopJesus
If you watch Alcides Escobar every day, from time to time you utter the phrase “I can’t believe he just did that”. It’s almost been a crime that Escobar has barely warranted attention to being nominated for a Gold Glove award(which he was last year), let along the fact that he still hasn’t won one. On Friday night Escobar showed why many of us refer to him as “Shortstop Jesus”:
Just amazing! Maybe it’s because the Royals had Yuniesky Betancourt for years at shortstop, but I feel like we should be thankful every day that we get to watch the golden defense of Escobar. Funny thing is, that wasn’t the only great play he would make in this series:
I talk very glowingly of Alex Gordon in left field, but I am almost as impressed with Escobar on a daily basis at shortstop. The Royals are lucky to have him locked in for awhile and to be a steady force in the infield. His offense might not always be perfect, but I have zero complaints about the defense. He is purely of another world.
Now onto a few notes from this I-70 Series:
Danny Duffy was originally scheduled to start on Sunday but was pushed back due to shoulder stiffness:
Danny Duffy said he felt stiffness in shoulder yesterday. "Felt like I needed a little WD-40 on it." #Royals
I’m playing a bit of ‘Devil’s Advocate’ here but I would almost bet money he doesn’t start on Tuesday. My gut tells me Vargas will come back and Duffy will take his spot on the DL. I’m not saying Duffy isn’t injured, but it would give the Royals a reason to send him down to AAA(on a rehab assignment) while also not using any of his options. It isn’t the worse idea, with the way Duffy has been pitching as of late.
Rain shortened Saturday’s game, as the Royals ended up with a 6 inning win by the score of 3-2, thanks in large part to a 2 run Alex Gordon home run. I know some Cardinal fans felt jipped, but I ask this question: who were the Cardinals going to score off of-Herrera, Davis, or Holland? I will wait for your answer…
After Friday’s night game, the Royals had the best record in baseball:
Elias: KC has the best record in MLB. This is the 1st time KC has MLB's best record at least 40 games into a season since Sept 9th, 1980.
I don’t know about anyone else, but this was about as good a feeling as a baseball fan can get. To go from laughingstock of the sport to best record in baseball in just a few short years? Yep, it feels pretty darn good!
Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Tweets of Royalty
Lowest walk rate (% of PA's) since 2013:
AL Pierzynski 2.9% Adam Jones 3.3% Alcides Escobar 3.3% Ben Revere 3.4% Salvador Perez 3.6%
— High Heat Stats MLB (@HighHeatStats) May 22, 2015
A small part of me(fairly small) really badly wanted a sweep, but there will be no complaints from me with a series win over the Cardinals. If anything it is some good mojo headed into New York to take on the Yankees for 3 this week. This road trip should be fun, as there is the games in New York and then 3 in Chicago against the Cubs. Hopefully the starting pitching can continue their streak of good starts and the offense can look past Sunday’s game against St. Louis. We are almost in June and talking best record in baseball; it’s hard not to feel like someone should pinch me. A 4-2 road trip is optimal but 3-3 would probably keep Kansas City’s lead in the Central. So for another week, the eyes of baseball are on the Royals. As much as it is weird, it is nice as well. A guy could get used to this kind of attention!
Most baseball teams don’t aspire to be the bad guys, the team that everyone loves to hate. For years the New York Yankees have held that position in baseball, no matter the makeup of the roster. A week before this series against the Chicago White Sox, the Kansas City Royals were busy making enemies with the Oakland A’s(and vice versa) and the Royals were starting to get the image of a team of hot-heads. Then a series with Minnesota calmed the team down, getting back into the swing of things and extracting revenge on the Twins by beating them. So the last thing really expected by venturing to Chicago is to once again have our baseball inundated with boxing. Yet here we are, with more suspensions and fines to discuss after what was supposed to be a 4 game set in the “Windy City”. So what about the play on the field? Glad you asked. Here is a deeper look into how the Royals lost the series against the White Sox, with a little bit of help from Mother Nature.
Series MVP: Alex Gordon
It was just a matter of time. During the offseason Alex Gordon would have wrist surgery, which also caused him to start Spring Training a bit later than everyone else. So it was no big surprise when Gordon started off the year badly, as he did appear to be 30 or so at bats behind everyone else. Probably also didn’t help that he is a notorious slow starter. So it only makes sense that as April gets close to wrapping up and May is looking to take over that Alex Gordon would start hitting. Gordon was 4 for 12 in this series, with most of the offense coming in Sunday’s game, including his 2nd home run of the year. But this series wasn’t just about the offense for “A1”. No, it was also about his defense, the defense that won him a Platinum Glove Award this past offseason. Sunday alone you saw a diving sprawled out catch in left. Then he made a running catch, immediately wheeling around and throwing Melky Cabrera out at second base for his first assist on the season. Then finally, a catch that hopefully we will see on highlights for years to come. The White Sox Micah Johnson would hit the ball off to the left side, careening towards the stands. Gordon runs over, makes the catch while diving into the stands, landing on a White Sox fan in the second row and holding onto the ball. Go ahead and watch it here, even if you have already seen it. Trust me, it is worth it:
I think I agree with Denny Matthews’ commentary during that inning where he stated that the degree of difficulty on that catch was greater than the Derek Jeter catch where he runs into the stands and comes out bloody. Jeter caught his ball then couldn’t stop his momentum into the stands. Gordon caught the ball while he was diving into the stands, focusing on the ball and stands at the same time. Either way that was an amazing catch and it would probably come as a shock that it would be the beginning of an inning where the White Sox would score 5 runs(which it was). A great series for Alex and hopefully the beginning of a hot streak for him.
Pitching Performance of the Series: Yordano Ventura
Through 5 innings Sunday I was pretty sure this honor would go to Edinson Volquez(again!), but alas he would fall apart in the bottom of the 6th inning after being dominant against the Pale Hose for the first half of the game. Instead it will go to Yordano Ventura, despite the fact that he would be ejected for the 2nd straight start. Before he was tossed for getting into it with Adam Eaton, Ventura had tossed 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs with 1 walk and 8 strike outs. Ventura looked miles better than he did last weekend against Oakland, where he couldn’t find the strike zone and when he did he was pummeled. Not only do the Royals need more starts like this from “Ace”, but they also need him to control his temper so he can stay in the game longer. That leads us to the story of this series…
Again??? Can’t We Just All Get Along?
There are a few angles to view the fracas that happened at U.S. Cellular Field on Thursday night and a lot of what occurred was leftover from the first series of year in Kansas City. If you can remember back to that series, in that first game of the year, Jeff Samardzija had just given up a home run to Mike Moustakas when he would hit the next batter, Lorenzo Cain, on the next pitch. At the time most of us gave Samardzija the benefit of the doubt and we hoped it wasn’t done on purpose. Honestly though, we were pretty sure that pitch was on purpose and might have even been left over feelings from the Wild Card game from last year, one in which Samardzija was a member of the Oakland A’s. There was a lot of blame to go around here, as it appeared as if Samardzija had been yelling from the dugout earlier in the game and Chris Sale had hit Mike Moustakas with a pitch that looked to be an accident, as it hit his shoulder and grazed his jaw. But Eaton yelping at Ventura seemed to set off the youngster and things got ugly fast. The funny thing about this was that almost instantly Moustakas grabbed Yordano and started escorting him toward the dugout, away from the argument. That didn’t stop everyone else from going at it, as the melee ensued. Samardzija seemed to be the most active participate, seemingly going after Cain, as the two of them yelled at each other back and forth. This also got Edinson Volquez to take a swing at ‘Shark’, although he missed his target and was then restrained. There was so much going on that I can’t cover everything here. Here is a better look:
So what set Eaton off? No clue, although there was later mention of him not taking kindly to Ventura ‘quick pitching’ him. If that is so, then Eaton is way out of line. A quick pitch is just a part of the game and if the White Sox feel like that is some kind of ‘unwritten rule’ in baseball then they have proven my point that most of baseball’s unwritten rules are dumb and taking out of context. Whatever the reason, the Royals were in their second major scuffle in less than a week and when the suspensions were handed out over the weekend it appeared that MLB offices did not take kindly to the Royals coming across like the modern day version of the NWO. Ventura got 7 games, Volquez got 5 while Cain and Kelvin Herrera(who I still can’t find anywhere in the rumble) got 2 games. I was a bit shocked that Samardzija got only 5 games for the White Sox, as he seemed to be more the aggressor than anyone else. I was thinking he was more likely to get 10 games, honestly. But the message sent by the Commissioner’s office was plain and simple; knock this crap off or we will continue to punish you and your team. I think the bigger issue is that cooler heads need to prevail. It seemed a bit like Eaton was goading Ventura, and if that is so he needs to ignore it. Teams have figured out now that the Royals have a chip on their shoulder and it isn’t hard to get under their skin. Problem is, once these players start serving their suspensions(and Volquez is serving his right now) that will be time that the Royals don’t have them on the field, which hurts the team. More than anything else this needs to stop for the sake of keeping the main components of this team on the field. It might not always be easy, but it is time for the Royals to turn the other cheek.
Onto the other mayhem from this series:
One thing glossed over from Thursday night was how the bullpen for Kansas City was lights out for the rest of that game. Ventura was ejected at the end of the 7th and the game would go 13 innings, which left the Royals bullpen throwing 6 shutout innings. In fact, this pen keeps mowing down batters left and right, which has given them some mind blowing numbers early on:
What is most impressive to me that a few guys seem to getting their feet underneath them, like Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales. Madson seems to be looking like his old, pre-injury self(which could be important later in the summer) and Morales has being throwing gas, showing he is more than just a LOOGY for this team. All this and Greg Holland has been out for over a week now and Luke Hochevar has yet to appear in a game this year. This could be interesting to follow all year, as in just how good this Royals bullpen can be.
I’m a bit surprised that 8 innings of Friday’s night game got played. By the 7th inning that field was a mess and in all honesty those players should have been pulled off the field. It made no sense to me, since they could make the rest of the game up over the weekend or the 2 other trips the Royals will make to Chicago this season. This only normally happens when a team is making only 1 trip to that city, which wasn’t the case here. Both teams were lucky that no one came down with a serious injury.
Speaking of weather issues, Mother Nature continued to wreck havoc, postponing Saturday’s game and making this 4 game series a 3 game series. The game will be made up in July.
Yesterday's #Royals White Sox game, which was rained out, will be made up on July 17 as part of a split doubleheader.
Paulo Orlando continues to hit. He went 3 for 3 in Friday nights game and is hitting .289 so far this season. With Alex Rios still out with an injury, it has made manager Ned Yost’s job harder, as he now has to choose from day to day who plays in right field, as Jarrod Dyson deserves playing time as well. Trust me, this is a nice problem to have.
It’s early, but Danny Duffy really hasn’t looked like last year’s version of himself. He has only had one start reach the 7th inning and he doesn’t seem to be as efficient as he was last year. His last few starts have been concerning(especially the 5 walks allowed last week against Oakland) as his pitch count has neared 100 by the 5th inning. For the Royals to keep up their pace they are going to need Duffy to be more efficient and pitch deeper into games. Now about that strikeout rate…
So the Royals lost their second series of the season and now sit at 12-6. Kansas City will continue to play within their division, as they have the Indians up next for 3 then the Tigers roll into Kauffman Stadium for a 4 game set starting Thursday. A win of both series’ would go a long way to building up a lead at the top of the division for the boys in blue. Hopefully by next Monday we are looking at a first place team who slayed both Central Division foes. I’ve said it before but man, this division is going to be fun this year. This is just the beginning of a four team race that could go down to the wire.
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