Tag: American League

Rooting Problems

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For the first time in 3 years I have no idea of who to root for when the Major League Baseball playoff’s start in a few weeks. As a Kansas City Royals fan, this is the first year since 2013 that our “Boys in Blue” haven’t been a part of the postseason and during that span I appear to have forgotten how to pick a team to cheer for come October. Since I need to figure out the team I am pulling for, I figured I would break down each team that will probably end up in postseason play and see which one I should be cheering for. Yes, this seems like a perfect scientific approach to this issue…said no one ever. I have no idea where this will lead me, folks; I guess we are going to find out together.

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Boston Red Sox

Boston is an interesting start to this experiment. For one, I really appreciate the fact that a big part of this team’s core was built from within, as up and comers like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are homegrown talent. It’s hard to dislike second baseman Dustin Pedroia and I can appreciate this team’s offensive approach. But the team’s pitching could be an issue, although the starters have held their own this year for the most part. The bullpen doesn’t seem as strong and we all know how important the pen is during the postseason. But more than anything, I am tired of the David Ortiz narrative that has been spewed this season. I am officially sick of the adulation and instantly shut my ears down once he is being discussed. With the expectation being that the Ortiz talk will only intensify as the team progresses, I can’t condone cheering for this team. I won’t put myself through that kind of mental hell. So Boston probably won’t be my team.

Chance of Cheering: 25%

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Cleveland Indians

The Indians have some big positives going on. For one, the starting pitching has been a force all year for them, although they are now down a Danny Salazar and a Carlos Carrasco, which might not bode well for them(sounds like more Trevor Bauer to me). I have always felt Terry Francona is one of the better managers in the game and knew it was a matter of time till he got this team on the same page. In some ways, this team reminds of those late 90’s Indians teams that were a young bunch of players blossoming at the same time. But…they are in the Royals division and despite the fact I don’t hate them like I hate the White Sox, I just can’t, in good conscious, root for a team in the same division as “my team”. There’s also that whole bad luck thing with Cleveland over the years. So the Indians are a no-go, no matter how many positives there are on this team. I. Just. Can’t.

Chance of Cheering: 15%

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Texas Rangers

The Rangers are the best team in the American League and it is easy to see how they have gotten here. For one, they have an electric offense, built around Adrian Beltre and Ian Desmond and have a great bunch of complimentary players. Hey, they get votes from me just for having Roughned Odor on their roster; anyone who punches Jose Bautista in the face is a friend in my eyes. They have also gotten a good season out of Cole Hamels, but the pitching is a bit worrisome. Starters are in the bottom fifth of the league while their relievers are in the bottom third, with neither posting the greatest of numbers. But I kind of like this team, and they have never won a World Series before, which makes them a bit more intriguing. I’m not completely ready to buy in, but my interest is piqued with Texas.

Chance of Cheering: 55%

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Toronto Blue Jays

No. Just no. Look, I have no issue with Blue Jays fans. I love Canada. But…all I can think of is Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista complaining about pitchers throwing inside, while wearing enough body armor that they could be considered part of King Arthur’s ‘Knights of the Round Table’. Or Bautista throwing Ryan Goins under the bus in last year’s playoffs. Or really anything Bautista says. Look, I’m sure there are reasons to root for this team. I just don’t see any of them and instead might be rooting against them. Sorry, Toronto.

Chance of Cheering: 0%

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
Credit: Tommy Gilligan (USA TODAY)

Baltimore Orioles

Alright, now we have the first team that I feel like I can really get behind. I’m not the biggest fan of teams known for their propensity for slugging the ball, but watching a player of Manny Machado’s caliber can change a man’s mind. Add in the likes of Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo and you have an offense that could rival Boston’s if given the chance. Baltimore’s starting pitching isn’t going to blow anyone away, but their bullpen is a different story. The pen is lead by Zach Britton, who has had a phenomenal season and could get a number of first place votes for the American League Cy Young award. Not many expected the Orioles to be where they are today, and for that I could easily see myself cheering for them.

Chance of Cheering: 75%

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Washington Nationals

Washington is another team I can see myself rooting for. I like their young core of players like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon and enjoy watching guys like Stephen Strasburg (who hopefully will be healthy soon) and Max Scherzer in their element. This Nationals team seems like a perfect fit to make a deep run in the playoffs this year and should be a serious World Series contender. Will Daniel Murphy put on a playoff tear like he did last year for New York? Will Scherzer dominate like he does in the regular season? Will Jayson Werth cuss in a postgame interview again? The Nationals could be a fun team to follow this October and would be a good choice to cheer on.

Chance of Cheering: 80%

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are an interesting team, as they are a weird hybrid of talent and dysfunction, and I’m not just talking about Yasiel Puig. Is this the year the Dodgers get over the hump and return to the World Series? Is this the year Clayton Kershaw dominates in the postseason? Hey, it could happen to worse teams. I would love to see Kershaw strap the rest of the team on his back as he leads them to the ‘Fall Classic’. This is a very talented team but definitely one that has their flaws. I could see me rooting for them, but a few other teams would have to fall to the waste-side for that to happen.

Chance of Cheering: 50%

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San Francisco Giants

We’ve all made the joke; The Giants have won the World Series the last 3 even years, so of course they will be accepting the trophy again this year, right? Hey, I might be inclined to tell you this team is different and could have some big obstacles in front of them if/when they reach October. But the other part of me knows that this is a team that has ‘been there and done that’ and should never be counted out. They still have Buster Posey. They still have Madison Bumgarner. They still have future HOF manager Bruce Bochy. So yeah, the odds might be stacked against this team, but they seem to like it that way. Sound familiar, Royals fans? Add in the quirkiness of Hunter Pence and Johnny Cueto and I can’t say I won’t root for them. They just don’t feel like my first choice, that is all.

Chance of Cheering: 65%

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New York Mets

Yep, these guys are back. In many a way, they feel a lot like last year’s team; great pitching, weaker hitting. I am not opposed to watching the Mets young fireballers throw shade in the postseason, in fact that seems like it would be fun. I would LOVE to see Bartolo Colon hit a walk-off home run to win Game 7 of the World Series, because “Big Sexy” is capable of anything. There really isn’t much with this team that I dislike, but there really isn’t a ton that compels me either. In other words, the Mets probably aren’t my ‘October Team’. Plus, I still hold it against Mr. Met for almost knocking me over at Kauffman Stadium at the All-Star Game in 2012. But that is another story for another time…

Chance of Cheering: 55%

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St. Louis Cardinals

As a self-respecting Kansas City Royals fan, I can in no way, shape or form, root for the Cardinals. It is against everything I stand for and everything I believe in. Plus, every ounce of my body hates them. Sorry, this ain’t happening!

Chance of Cheering: -1000%

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Chicago Cubs

…and we have our winner! Sure, a few of you would assume I am cheering for the Cubs since they are the odds on favorites to win the World Series. Nope, that’s not it. Hey, could it be wanting the team who hasn’t won the whole thing in over 100 years to finally come out on top? Nope, try again. It’s not even because one of my favorite players (Ben Zobrist) plays on this team, or my fondness for Joe Maddon. All these reasons, while solid, aren’t the real reason that I will be rooting for the Cubs this October. No, the real reason is simpler than all of that. As a kid, I loved baseball. By the age of ten, I was fully engulfed in baseball fever. It became the obsession it still is today. Back in those days, we didn’t always get to watch my favorite team, the Royals, as they only aired them maybe once or twice a week, at best. But what team was on almost every single afternoon, and especially when I came home from school? The Chicago Cubs. The Cubs were shown on WGN on a daily basis and in my thirst for baseball I would sit and watch an insane amount of games…or at least watch them until I decided to go outside and actually play baseball! So because of this, I still have a deep affinity for the Cubbies. They are a part of my youth, and I will always hold them in a higher regard than a lot of teams because of it. Yes, I want the curse to be broken and I want all those Cubs fans to have some of the joy that us Royals fans got to wrap ourselves around these last few seasons. They have earned it. Because of this, I’m rooting for the Cubs to break through and get their third world championship. You can think it’s me jumping on a bandwagon, but it’s me acknowledging that this franchise was a big part of my love of baseball over the years. I’m just looking to give some of that back.

Chance of Cheering: 100%

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So there you go; I guess I should have seen where this was going but it was still a fun little experiment. It will be weird this October to not see the Royals in the playoffs, but it will be a lot less stressful. Here’s to hoping your team is one of the teams I mentioned  and that they have a deep run in the postseason. It’s a month of excitement, great performances and unbelievable results. It is the best reason to love baseball…and it is almost upon us!

 

 

 

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Quality and Quantity

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
(Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY)

Quality pitching might be the greatest necessity throughout the game of baseball. You could ask 100 baseball executives, scouts or analysts, and I’m sure almost all of them would point to quality starting pitching as a constant need for every team. Point blank, you can never have enough pitching. The Kansas City Royals can be counted as one of those teams, as evident by the way their starting rotation has performed this year. It has been so vital for Kansas City that I wrote about it here and here…and here. If there ever was a season where the Royals fate would be determined by their rotation, this would be the year. In fact, you could almost say that as their starters go, so go the Royals. When they struggle, the Royals struggle. When they are glorious, the team strives. Kansas City is currently riding a hot streak and while you will hear names like Gordon, Hosmer and Orlando linked to this streak, the biggest reason for their success can be attributed to the improvement of the starting pitching.

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals
(UPI/Bill Greenblatt)

Lets start by discussing the Royals pitchers and the quality start. For those that don’t know, a quality start is considered any start where the pitcher goes at least 6 innings while allowing 3 runs or less. It’s shouldn’t be a hard standard to meet, but occasionally it is an issue and has been for Kansas City this year. Obviously leading the way is Danny Duffy and his amazing season. Duffy has reeled off six straight quality starts and has 12 overall in his 18 starts this year. Ian Kennedy has spun four straight quality starts and Yordano Ventura has three straight. Even Dillon Gee got into the act on Thursday night, spinning his best start of the season and only his second quality start of the year. The starters seem to be working deeper into the game as of late, allowing the bullpen to not log as many innings as they have been and giving them a chance to be a bit sharper. This is big, because if the Royals pitching holds the other team’s offense, there is a good chance that the bullpen will also hold them in check. The Kansas City offense has a tendency to erupt late in the game, and the starting pitching as of late has given them the opportunity to do just that.

Ian Kennedy
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

During the month of July, the Royals scuffled and while the offense sputtered, the starting pitching wasn’t much better. For most of the year, the rotation has been near the bottom of most categories in the American League, but that has changed. The Kansas City starters have climbed up from last in innings pitched to 11th, next to last in starters WAR and FIP, and 10th in ERA. The starters have still given up the most home runs in the league and the 3rd highest walk percentage, but you can see some definite progression in the numbers. Teams are only batting .255 against Kansas City’s starters, 4th best in the league and they have the third best LOB(Left on Base) percentage of 74.7%. Their strike out numbers have risen as well, as they have the third best K rate in the league at 20.7%. There are still some flaws with the starters, as expected, but when you see the team has the second best Clutch statistic in the league(Kansas City is at 3.26 this year, with 2.00 considered an excellent number) it makes it appear as if the rotation is moving in the correct direction.

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The interesting part is that the Royals have not relied as heavily on their starters the last few years and it has seen them make back to back World Series appearances. The team was actually last in the American League last year in innings pitched, 4th highest ERA and FIP, 2nd lowest starters WAR and the highest walk rate in the league(7.6%). When digesting the 2016 numbers compared to last year, it appears the only big glaring difference would be the home runs allowed by the starters. Last year they allowed 107 home runs for the entire year, 6th lowest in the league. This year they have allowed 121 homers, 14 more in 232 less innings. The long ball has hurt the team this year and can be attributed as the big difference in the rotation this year. Luckily, they have only allowed 13 home runs over the last two weeks in 85 innings, which gives them a HR/9 ratio of 1.38. That is quite a bit better than the 1.60 ratio they have for the entire season. This team is never going to be quite like the Atlanta Braves rotations of the 1990’s but there is notable improvement over the last few weeks and some of the same competitiveness seen by Atlanta back in the day.

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With just forty games remaining in this 2016 season, the Royals are sitting at 62-60, 9 games out of the American League Central lead and 5.5 games out of the Wild Card. This latest hot streak has soared them back into the race and the starting pitching should get a lot of the praise for that. If this team wants to play in the postseason for the third consecutive year, they need the rotation to keep doing what they have been doing these last couple weeks. What was considered a lost cause just a few weeks ago now seems a distinct possibility for the team that has ‘been there, done that’. If the rest of the rotation follows Danny Duffy’s lead, there will be a fun comeback story to dwell on when October rolls around.

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In Paulo We Trust

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When the season started, it was expected that Paulo Orlando would be splitting time in right field with Jarrod Dyson, with Dyson probably seeing the bulk of the playing time. In 2015, Orlando proved that he was a worthy backup outfielder, posting a line of .249/.269/.444 in 251 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 89 and 1.0 fWAR. Orlando supplied above average defense with a bat that wasn’t spectacular but could place a timely hit from time to time with a bit of pop. Orlando had toiled in the minors for 9 seasons before 2015 and in some ways it was easy to see why. He had put together a couple of above average offensive seasons in the minors, but nothing that would really grab a scout looking for a gem in the minors. The Royals liked Orlando’s defense and speed, two pillars of Kansas City’s success these last few years. As much as most of us liked Paulo, we also figured with his past track record that he was a solid backup at best, whose flaws would be more glaring the more playing time he would receive. Instead, Paulo followed a sparse April(30 plate appearances in 9 games) with a spectacular May where he hit .429/.456/.603 and hasn’t looked back. So is Paulo for real?

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My first instinct with Orlando’s hot hitting was that as much as it appeared as if he had improved offensively, that at some point he would regress. The highest he has hit average wise at any level was .305, which he did in 2010 for the Royals AA team. Orlando has only two above average offensive seasons throughout his minor league career(2010 and 2014) and one of those seasons was just barely above league average(101 wRC+ in 2014 for Omaha, the Royals AAA team). In June, he still put up solid numbers, but they slipped a bit, down to .292/.323/.371 in 26 more plate appearances. Paulo went from platooning with Dyson to seeing the majority of the time in right field and in all honesty he had earned it. Orlando would follow that with a bigger dip in July, hitting .273/.291/.351 , which were still respectable numbers but it did appear as if he was finally coming down to earth. But early into August he is hitting .500/.519/.692 with a sOPS+ of 227. So what is he doing differently in 2016 to see such a big increase in production?

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It appears the biggest part of his success is coming from watching video. Back in June, Orlando discussed his use of video to scout out the opposing pitchers and would use what he learned when it came time take batting practice that day:

“It can slow down the game and help you a lot. Before every game, before I go practice, I watch. If a pitcher throws a lot of breaking balls, you go to BP and try to work on that.”

It’s also been obvious that playing every day has also helped his approach at the plate:

“When you play more games, you have your timing every day. Some guys throw hard — 95 to 97 mph — some guys throw 90 to 92. So when you play every day, you have more confidence in yourself.”

At the plate Paulo has improved his hitting, but a number of his stats point to him being in some ways the same player he was in 2015. His strike out percentage is about the same as last year (20.1% to 21.1%) while his walk percentage is still almost non-existent(2.0% to 2.3% last year). Orlando has continued to put the ball in play at a high rate(77.9 % this year, 79.1% in 2015) but his placement of where he is hitting the ball is a bit different this year. Last year, Paulo was pulling the ball at a 36% clip, while this year he is hitting the ball to center field 39.7% of the time. In fact, he is even hitting the ball to right field more this year (30.6%) than he is to left (29.7%). It’s obvious that his approach at the plate this year has been more focused on putting the ball in play and going with the pitch than trying to pull the ball and use his power. The power, is the one part of his game that has been sacrificed so far in 2016.
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One of the positives for Orlando last year was the fact that he showed some power from the right side of the plate, something the Royals didn’t have a plethora of in 2015. Last year Orlando slugged at a .432 clip with 27 extra base hits and an ISO of .195. So far in 2016(and as of  August 11 he has played in exactly the same amount of games as last year, with 60 more plate appearances), Paulo is slugging at a .432 rate with 22 extra base hits and an ISO of .105. It’s obvious with his approach this year he has sacrificed some of his power this year for an increase in his on-base percentage(which is up by .082 this year). This also means his hard hit rate is down(26.5%,  down from 31.4% in 2015), but his soft hit rate is down as well(17.6% from 19.9% last year). How you feel about this is determined on whether or not  you believe the Royals would be better off with someone with more power or someone getting on base. To me, as much as Kansas City needs a bit more power in their lineup, even more in need is someone who can get on base consistently. Orlando is doing just that so this could probably be filed under the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it’ category.
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In what has become a very frustrating season for Kansas City, Orlando’s production has been a bright light and while some of us(myself included) have been thinking he will start to regress, time is proving us wrong. Within the last week Orlando has been moved to the leadoff spot for the Royals, a spot that has been lacking this year. Kansas City’s leadoff batters are hitting .243/.277/.314, all either in last or next to last in the American League this year. The Royals also have just 23 extra base hits from leadoff this year, the lowest in the league. I’m not sold that Orlando is the answer at the top(he does have only 12 career walks during his two years in the major leagues), but it was also obvious that mainstay Alcides Escobar wasn’t the answer either. The Royals have no immediate answer at the top of the order, which is why manager Ned Yost is giving it a try:
“(We’re) just giving him a shot,” Yost said in the dugout before Tuesday’s game. “We’ve been thinking about it for a while. Paulo’s been swinging the bat good.”
In two games, he is 2 for 11 at the top, not exactly proving Yost right but it is the smallest of small sample sizes. At this point, it is worth a try to see if he can still get on base at a good clip. No matter whether at the top or farther down the lineup, Paulo Orlando has earned his playing time this year. Like Lorenzo Cain, he didn’t start playing baseball until his teenage years in Brazil, so his development is not quite the same as the normal player. Orlando has proven himself a quick learner and could be seeing more improvement before a regression sets in. Not bad for a guy who didn’t even make his major league debut until the age of 29.
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Royals Offense, Where Art Thou?

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A lot of words have been spilled this year on the Kansas City Royals starting pitching and the atrocious numbers they have put up. While all this is very true, what has not been mentioned as much is how lethargic the offense has been, especially over this past month. The Royals went 7-19 in July, a month where they went from potential playoff contenders to also-rans and a big part of the awful July was the struggles of the Kansas City offense. So where did it all go wrong?

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
(Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY)

Let’s begin with the season totals. The Royals are currently last in the American League in home runs, runs, RBI’s, walk %, walk to strikeout % and ISO. They are also next to last in hard hit rate, second from the top in soft hit rate while floating near the bottom of the league in On Base Percentage, slugging percentage oWAR and wRC+. What is really scary is that this is a team built to make contact and put pressure on the other team’s defense by putting the ball in play, yet their contact % is only 7th in the league at 78.7%. For a team whose entire offense is built around making contact, it is scary not to see them at the top of the league.

Alcides Escobar
(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

The July numbers don’t really get any better. Throughout this past month, the Royals are last in home runs, runs, RBI’s, ISO, BAbip, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+ and oWAR. Offensively, the Royals were the worst team in the league in July and a huge part of why they won only seven games all month. The obvious numbers that really stick out are the power numbers, as this team is not hitting the ball hard and had the highest ground ball % in the league this last month. Look, the Royals are never going to be compared to the old ” Murderer’s Row” Yankees’ teams, but if they want to be a contender they can’t be hitting the ball on the ground as much as they are.

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Some of these numbers shouldn’t be a surprise. The Royals over the last few years have been near the bottom of the league in home runs and walks, so neither of those numbers should be too surprising. This would also affect their numbers for on base percentage and slugging percentage, but even those are down quite a bit from 2015. Last year, the Royals were either 7th or 8th in OBP, slugging percentage and wRC+, which are very respectable numbers for a team who doesn’t hit a lot of home runs or take walks. Part of this can be attributed to Kansas City being third in the league in doubles and fourth in triples. So far in 2016, the Royals are 9th in doubles and 11th in triples. Those extra base hits were vital to a contact team like Kansas City and can be pointed to as a big part of their success last year. If you want to take a shot at what is different from last year to this year offensively, those extra base hits would be a good place to start.

World Series Royals Mets Baseball
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

So what can the Royals offense do to improve on these numbers? I know, it’s not like the team can magically snap their fingers and they are fixed, but there are a few techniques that are bound to improve the numbers, even if it is a gradual improvement. One thing that instantly comes to mind is waiting for your pitch. In 2015 the Royals really seemed to improve on this, looking for a pitch to drive rather than just something in the zone. That frame of mind needs to come back. There also could be an improvement in their ground ball ratio, which is partially a by-product of a high soft hit rate as well. I am of the belief that if the team can raise their hard hit rate and can get a sprinkle of luck(as they were last in BAbip throughout the month of July)  then we will see an increase in offensive production. Eric Hosmer seems to be turning things around over the last 4 games, slugging .533 in that span. Add in the return of Lorenzo Cain and the continued production of  Cheslor  Cuthbert at the top of the lineup and this is a team that can catch a hot streak in no time. I would mention that the team could be a bit more patient at the plate(and I do think that would help them in the long run), I am not crazy; I know this is just not a team that is going to rack up a number of walks. Best case scenario sees this team loosen up a bit(as they have looked pretty tight as of late), square up the ball a bit more and just focus on making good contact. It has felt like this team is trying to do too much at the plate when the honest truth is that keeping it simple could very well garner better results.

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Baseball is a great sport because the littlest thing that drags you down one month can completely vanish in a second. With July now in the rear-view mirror, August is a chance for Kansas City to awaken their bats and show the rest of the American League that they are better offensively than they have shown so far in 2016. The honest truth is that the Royals teams of the last 3-4 years have always been a bit of a streaky bunch and have had equal parts high and low lights. This team is capable of being better but they are running out of time to prove it. So far in August they have racked up back to back 9 hit games. A little bit more run production and this team could squeak their way back into the wild card race in the American League. It’s a long-shot, but if there was a team to do it…

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Wader, Disabled List Please

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Over the last couple years there has been one aspect of the Kansas City Royals success that has made me nervous. That one thing was how the team dealt with very few major injuries, as for the most part the key parts of the roster were kept healthy and on the field. 2016 has felt a bit like the back payment for that good luck is being paid up. In May, All-Stars Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas collided in foul territory chasing a foul ball, leaving Alex out for about a month and losing Moose for the rest of the season. Just last week Lorenzo Cain was bitten by the injury bug, going down to a hamstring injury that will leave him out until the Royals return from the All-Star break. Even catcher Salvador Perez missed a week of action due to injury, but luckily avoided the disabled list. It appears the Royals All-Stars are falling off one by one and that was added to today when closer Wade Davis, he of the bionic arm, was placed on the 15-day DL with a forearm strain.

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The first thing to pop in most people’s heads when mentioning a forearm injury is a ligament injury in the elbow, which Royals management is saying is not the case with Davis:

The strain, Yost said, was located on the top of the forearm, and not a flexor-pronator strain, the ailment commonly associated with ligament damage in the elbow. Yost said the injury was similar to one that forced starter Chris Young to the disabled list earlier this season.

Alright, well that doesn’t sound bad at all. In fact, it appears as if the Royals are trying to nip the strain in the bud before it gets any worse. Davis had first felt the strain last week in St. Louis, and he also had a similar injury last September. Last year he was shut down for about a week and was all good to go for the playoffs. Sounds like Kansas City is hoping for more of the same this year.
MLB: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

(Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY)

With the injury to Davis, I was curious to see if his velocity had seen a decrease recently and if so, if  it was noticeable. This first chart shows his velocity on his pitches all year and there really isn’t a noticeable change:

Brooksbaseball-Chart

There is a very slight decrease in Davis’ cutter, but outside of that everything has been moving in an upward direction, even just slightly. There was also a slight change when it comes to whether Wade was facing a right-handed or left-handed batter:

Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)

The decrease to righties was very slight, about 1 MPH difference, so nothing major to worry about. There was a slight difference from outing to outing, which is almost to be expected with an injury like this:

Wade had said he felt tightness during his June 30th outing against St. Louis, which would be the 94.7 MPH velocity you see above. The Royals seem like they are concerned but we aren’t seeing the big drop in velocity like we saw last year in Greg Holland, where he was down in the high to mid 80 MPH range, so there isn’t a reason to get too worried yet. The real test will be on whether Davis feels better in a week or if the tightness is still there. Most likely he will play catch for now and the team will get feedback from him on how he is feeling. In other words, it literally is a feeling out process for Wade and the Royals.

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So who will fill the closer role from Davis while he is away? For the time being, it appears to be a match-up role:

If I had to guess, Kelvin Herrera will get first shot, since he has been a dominating force for most of this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Joakim Soria get a save opportunity during his absence, as Yost likes his past success as a closer. I know some fans have soured on Soria, but he has been more than solid for the most part this season. Hell, I could even see Luke Hochevar getting an opportunity to close out the game if he looks like a good option. The good news for the Royals is that the team is loaded in the pen with solid arms, as it might be the deepest part of the team.

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If there was a word to describe this 2016 season for the Royals, it would be ‘adversity’. This team has been dealt one crushing injury blow after another and yet are still a contender in the American League. Luckily, it sounds like everyone involved feels good about Davis’ chances of being back in the fold by next weekend:

For the most part this looks to be just a minor bump in the road that Kansas City is just being cautious about. I would worry more if there was a major decrease in velocity, or this was a ligament instead of a muscle. Instead, we are looking at a nice little dose of ‘R & R’ for the cyborg before he returns to give hitters fits of hopelessness. This is just one more struggle for this team to overcome if they want to return to October baseball….and if there was one team to handle adversity, well…

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Selection Tuesday: Which Royals Are All-Star Worthy

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On Tuesday, Major League Baseball will announce the All-Star team rosters and it appears that the litany of Kansas City Royals players on the roster will not be as hefty as they were in 2015. With that being said, manager Ned Yost will once again be at the helm of the American League All-Star team and will have a say in some of the participants of the team. There will be Royal blue in San Diego on July 12, but how much? Let’s go ahead and look at my predictions for the Royals and who will be joining Yost at Petco Park next week.

All-Star Locks

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Salvador Perez

Salvy, a fan favorite not only in Kansas City but all around Major League Baseball, was leading the AL catcher position last we checked so the likelihood of him going is about 99.999999%. Normally Perez gets to the All-Star game on his charming positivity and his stellar defense behind the dish. But this year you can add a lethal bat to the mix; .281/.315/.490, 12 home runs, 37 RBI’s, 110 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. I remember back in 2012 when former Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa was being interviewed the day before the All-Star game and was asked about Perez, who was in his first full major league season. LaRussa had compared Sal to Cardinals elite receiver Yadier Molina, which at the time was the highest of compliments. At this stage, it feels like Salvy has overtaken Molina and is the standard-bearer for catchers, at least in the American League. This won’t be a shock and will be well deserved when Perez starts next week in San Diego.

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Eric Hosmer

Hosmer has been battling the first base position out with the Tigers Miguel Cabrera for the starting nod and deservedly so. Hosmer has produced like a star so far in 2016, hitting .303/.361/.490 with 13 home runs, 49 RBI’s, 127 wRC+ and a 0.4 WAR(with his defensive metrics dragging this number down). Hosmer has looked the part this year of offensive force rather than just potential,  and at this point is probably more worthy of starting the game than Cabrera. Hosmer is a lock either way to be on the roster, it’s just a matter of whether he is voted in or heads to San Diego as a reserve.

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Wade Davis

I’m sure there will be someone out there, somewhere, who will say Wade doesn’t deserve to go to San Diego next week because he “isn’t quite as dominant” as he has been the last two years. That is pretty much the equivalent of Mike Trout’s numbers falling a smidge but still being an MVP candidate. Davis has thrown 29 innings so far this year, and while his numbers don’t pop out at you like in the past(K rate is down, walk rate is up) he is still producing. Wade has an ERA of 1.23, FIP of 2.69, and is still stranding 87% of his runners on base. He is easily one of the top five relievers in the game and deserves to be an All-Star. No way Ned doesn’t make that happen, if he isn’t voted there by the players. Wade will be an All-Star, period.

All-Star Probables

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Lorenzo Cain

This will be a complicated pick, but one that should happen. Cain is currently on the disabled list, which means he would be unable to play in the All-Star game, but he can always be picked as a reserve and then have someone else take his spot; not like that has never happened before in All-Star’s past. Cain is hitting .290/.336/.416 with 8 home runs, 39 RBI’s, 1.9 WAR with 9 defensive runs saved. Sure, Cain is not tearing it up offensively the way he did in 2015(April was not kind to Lorenzo), but he is still considered one of the elite center fielders in the game and that’s what this game is for: the best of the best. It will interesting to see if Cain gets a spot, as it would be another honor that he could use when negotiating a new contract with Kansas City after the 2017 season. I feel he is worthy, but he might end up being a borderline selection by the players and coaches.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
(Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY)

Kelvin Herrera

To me this is an easy pick but Herrera could be cast aside for another Royals reliever this year(more on that in just a bit). Herrera has put up dominating numbers this: 11.41 strikeouts per 9, 1.63 walks per 9, 87% left on base percentage, 1.40 ERA, 2.01 FIP and 1.3 WAR, all over 38 innings of work. Herrera added a slider to his repertoire late in 2015 and it has made him even more unhittable than he was before. The Royals aren’t the defending World Champions without Herrera and he has continued to be the bridge to Wade Davis this year to help lock down the late innings for the Royals. Herrera is an All-Star; now we will see if he actually gets the honor or is passed over for a bullpen brother.

All-Star Longshots

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Luke Hochevar

Yep, bet you probably didn’t see this coming. Above, I mentioned Herrera could get passed over for another Royals reliever and of course I was talking about Hochevar. Hoch, a man who I once despised, has been one of the most reliable Royals relievers this year and the numbers back that up: 10.16 strikeouts per 9, 2.03 walks per 9, 79% left on base percentage, 2.90 ERA and 0.4 WAR over 31 innings. Sure, these aren’t eye-popping numbers like Davis or Herrera, but they are more than solid and worthy of the adulation. Now, if Hoch gets picked it will be by manager Ned Yost, who will want to reward Luke for his hard work out of the pen and the fact he doesn’t get a lot of the recognition that his bullpen mates get. Yost has asked Hochevar to perform in a lot of high-leverage situations this year and for the most part he has been highly effective in that role. If he is rewarded with the honor, it will show just how loyal a man like Yost is and a nice nod for a guy who turned his career around after being a failure in the rotation.

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Whit Merrifield

Okay, okay, I know; Whit has played in only 40 games for Kansas City and more than likely has no business even being in this discussion. But…those 40 games have been stellar with steady production from a guy who is supposed to just be an afterthought after the season started. Instead, Merrifield has posted a line of .308/.328/.426 with 26 runs scored, 15 RBI’s, a .385 BAbip, 100 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR…all in 40 games! Merrifield is 8th in WAR for second baseman in the American League and while Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve and Ian Kinsler are all worthy of roster spots this year, the story of Whitley Merrifield would make a great story. It’s not going to happen and for the most part, it shouldn’t. But it’s hard not to root for this guy and everything he has accomplished in about six weeks. To see him gaining an All-Star nod would be about as warm and fuzzy as one can imagine. Think of watching ‘Toy Story’ while cuddling with a bunch of puppies and you will be close…not quite, but close. So Merrifield isn’t going to San Diego, but I felt like I should at least mention him. Rock on, Whitley.

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The Royals aren’t going to send as many players to San Diego as they did last year in Cincinnati(no bus needed this year. Sorry, Rex) but I would expect a healthy dose of Kansas City blue at the festivities next week. For years Royals fans would hem and haw about who actually deserved to get Kansas City’s lone spot at the game, and there were even years were no one was really worthy(hello, Mark Redman!). The Royals will have enough players going this year to where you should probably pay attention to the game to see if any of the players end up playing pivotal roles. Just don’t take the game too seriously; it is an exhibition game after all. An exhibition game where Salvy could throw a runner out, Hosmer could hit a home run and Wade could record the final out. Sure, there is a good chance none of that happens, but you never quite know.

 

 

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The Awakening of Kendrys Morales

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When June began there were many a question pointed in the direction of Kansas City Royals DH Kendrys Morales. Morales was mired in a two month-long hitting slump and at that point was hitting a paltry .193/.262/.330 with 6 home runs, 21 RBI’s and more strike outs than actual hits. Morales looked lost and there was concern that maybe Kansas City needed to go out and get a bat to replace him if the slump continued much longer. Even I wondered if Carlos Beltran would be a better option than Morales while deep down hoping that Kendrys would find his swing and take off like a rocket offensively. Well, it took a lot longer than expected, but the slugger we saw in 2015 win the Silver Slugger award for American League DH is back to form and has been tearing the hide off the ball these last few weeks. But this begs an even bigger question than we were asking a month ago: What has changed for Morales?

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One of my initial beliefs about Morales’ improvement has been his ability to hit breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Early in the season it appeared he was really struggling trying to make contact and pitchers had picked up on that. But in June it seemed as if Morales was actually pounding those same pitches he was missing the first two months of the season:

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The chart above confirms my suspicions as Morales’ exit velocity on breaking balls and off-speed stuff has taken a steady rise in a positive direction. This made me also wonder if he was not only hitting those pitches harder, but also improving his line-drive rate on balls in play:

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That turned out to be a big 10-4 as Morales’ line drive rate on breaking balls jumped from an average of 7.14 in May to 66.67 in June. If you have watched a number of Royals games this past month, you are well aware of how Kendrys has been scalding the ball and by that I mean not in the form of ground balls:

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This is also confirmed, at least on breaking balls. It does appear as if Morales saw a jump on ground balls off the off-speed pitch, which Isn’t too big of a shock. This probably should not be seen as completely negative, as it is better than popping those pitches up, where at least a well hit ground ball can find a hole. This seemed to be proven by Morales’ ground ball chart:

Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)

Last month Morales was hitting breaking balls in the air a lot, as it spiked the highest in May. In June, it is at the very bottom and is actually at zero. Rather than giving the other team an easy out by hitting it in the air, Morales has been getting enough of the bat on the ball to either hit the ball on the ground or line the ball into the field of play. Not only has Morales been hitting off-speed pitches, it also is the pitch he is swinging at the most in the last month:

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This tells me that Morales felt more comfortable in June swinging at the off-speed pitch and probably even expected to see more change-ups than fastballs. Teams had obviously started throwing Morales a certain way, seeing that he was struggling catching up to the off-speed pitch and it makes one wonder if he will start seeing more fastballs with the way he has been hitting as of late.

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So we have looked at Morales’ improvement with breaking balls and the off-speed pitch, but the overall numbers are even more impressive. Over the last month, Morales has put up a line of .402/.453/.655 with 5 home runs, 18 RBI’s and 12 total extra base hits. His strike outs have also steadily fallen, as he had 21 in April, 18 in May and down to 17 strike outs in June. One stat that really points out why Morales has seen this success is batting average on balls in play(BAbip). During the first two months of the season Morales posted BAbip’s of .270 and .157 respectively; in June he hit a whopping .462! Morales was not only hitting the ball better, but he was also finding holes in the other team’s defense at a higher rate as well.  It shouldn’t be surprising that Morales ended up with an OPS+ of 190 throughout the month, as those are the two forms of attack for him in June; get on base and accumulate extra base hits. Morales ended up with only one more home run in June than May, but hit 7 doubles while only racking up 1 double in May. Oh, and Morales saw a big uptick in his batting average in the last month. He would start the month hitting .193, and would finish it hitting .262. We could probably dig up numbers all day comparing April/May to June and be blown away but more than anything it shows what Kendrys is capable of when he is in the zone. The numbers Morales put up last month weren’t just impressive for a guy who had been slumping all season, they would be impressive for the Mike Trout’s and Bryce Harper’s of the world as well. That is elite company, to say the least.

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With this big of a turnaround, one has to wonder just what changed for Morales. We can speculate all day but if you have followed baseball for even a small bit you know the slightest change can make a difference. Earlier in the week I had a friend suggest that he believed that Morales had been staying on his back foot longer than normal and honestly, a change like that could make a batter see the ball better out of the pitcher’s hand and also give him more time to prepare for something slower than a fastball. Whatever approach Morales changed has worked and has made him look like the hitter who was spraying the ball with authority throughout much of 2015. With the trade deadline looming, having Kendrys on point leaves the Royals front office with one less position to worry about when looking at trade targets. Now if the rest of the Kansas City offense can help him out(and if Cleveland finally decides to lose a game) the Royals could be sitting pretty headed into the last couple months of the season. One minute we are cursing the slumping player, the next praising him. Piling on the adulation is way more productive than wondering what the hell is going on with someone like Morales. I’m just glad he chose to wake up his bat when he did.

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Wanna Be Starting Something

MLB: ALCS-Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
(Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY)

Back in May, I discussed how the starting pitching had become a major issue for the Kansas City Royals. Luckily, not too long after that the starters stabilized and even with Chris Young and Kris Medlen on the disabled list, the Royals starters improved upon what at the time was a woeful performance. No one was going to confuse their starting staff with the Atlanta Braves rotations of the 1990’s or the Baltimore Orioles starters in the 1970’s, but there was some notable improvement, especially once Danny Duffy returned to the rotation. But the glaring weakness of this Royals team is still the starting five and I’m not so sure help is on the way.

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On Friday night, the normally steady Edinson Volquez had one of the worst starts of not only his career, but in baseball history. Volquez only threw one complete inning, allowing 8 hits, 3 walks and 11 earned runs. This earned him the honor of worst game score in Royals history, -18, which toppled the old record of -11, held by Jeremy Guthrie from last year and Zack Greinke in 2005. Chris Young followed that the next night by pitching 2.1 innings, and allowing 7 runs. Luckily, the Royals got some solid bullpen work both days from Dillon Gee, Brian Flynn, Peter Moylan and Chien-Ming Wang(oh, and Drew Butera). This is after Ian Kennedy only worked 4 innings on Tuesday and while Yordano Ventura is serving his 8 game suspension. The Royals starters are struggling and it’s easy when looking at the numbers to see why.

Indians Royals Baseball
 (AP Photo/David Dermer)

The Royals starters are 13th in the American League in innings pitched, the second highest in walks per 9 and 4th highest in home runs per 9. The only thing saving them from being last in the league is the fact they are stranding the most runners on base(a league leading 76.8%) and the Angels and Twins starters have actually performed worst this year. Back in May, both Medlen and Ventura were averaging 7 walks per 9 innings; Medlen is currently out on rehab assignment and Ventura has lowered his rate to 4 walks per 9. Chris Young and Ian Kennedy are 1 and 3 respectively in home runs allowed in the American League, with Jered Weaver of the Angels sandwiched between the two Royals. If the Royals are going to stay in the pennant race come September, this has to improve. But how?

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Unfortunately, there isn’t much help on the horizon. Medlen is close to being back, but if he pitches the way he was earlier in the season I’m not for sure that is an improvement. Mike Minor was once thought of as an option, but he was shut down from his rehab assignment a few weeks ago for shoulder fatigue and hasn’t been heard of since. Same for two top Royals prospects, Kyle Zimmer and Miguel Almonte. Almonte did return to action on June 9th, but the longest start he has had since then was only 4 innings. Alec Mills was recently recalled to AAA Omaha, but I doubt he is ready yet for a rotation spot. So there are really no answers within the organization. What about outside the organization?

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Unfortunately, the Royals don’t have much to deal, especially after last year’s Cueto and Zobrist trades that took a large chunk of their pitching depth.It’s conceivable that the Royals could go out and make a trade, although it wouldn’t be for much. More than likely it would have to be a middle to back end of the rotation type starter and someone that Kansas City could get fairly cheap. Someone like a Rich Hill of Oakland would probably be within their price range and would be a nice fit in the middle of this rotation.

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If the Royals are going to contend they are going to have to improve from within. Young and Kennedy would do good to keep the ball down low, pitch on the corners and avoid the middle of the plate. Yordano needs to keep his cool and use his fastball to set-up his off-speed stuff. All the Kansas City pitchers would be wise to lower their walk total and let the Royals defense do their job. More than anything, they need to limit the amount of base runners that are on the base paths; the current amount is just a recipe for disaster. This all seems like basic stuff that I’m sure they are trying to do anyway, but at this point whatever they are trying to do is not working.

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So the main solution to the Royals problem is a bit more consistency from their starters. In reality, all they really need to do is go 5 to 6 innings, allowing 3 runs or less(which is essentially a quality start) and then hand the game over to the bullpen. All of the Royals starters are capable of doing this and while it is unrealistic to expect this out of them every start, it is realistic to expect it the majority of the time. It appears rather funny to sit here and tell them to ‘just pitch better’ but essentially that is what will have to happen. There is no hero coming, riding in on a white horse. For the most part, the rotation they have now will decide whether or not this Kansas City team is playing again come October. This is the hand they dealt themselves,  and more than likely it is the hand that will decide their fate.

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Problem Child

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On Tuesday evening, the insecure part of Yordano Ventura got the best of him. After Manny Machado had some words for Ventura in the 2nd inning for pitching inside, Ventura’s pride got the best of him during Machado’s next at bat, as Yordano drilled him in the back with a 99 MPH fastball, his fastest pitch of the evening. To say it illicited a response is a bit of an understatement:

Most everyone felt like Yordano was past this, after the numerous encounters he had last year that got him in trouble. Instead, once again he allowed his emotions to run the show. This leaves the Royals in a bit of a pickle, since management, coaches and even players are tired of his behavior. So the question has to be asked: What do the Royals do with Yordano Ventura moving forward?

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Since the circus that Ventura created spun out of control last night, there have been rumors that the Royals had talked to other front office executives about Ventura in possible trade talks. In my opinion, Ventura will not get traded any time soon. For one, his value has never been lower. It would make no sense for Kansas City to trade an arm like Ventura at his lowest value. Second, the Royals are having issues currently with their starting rotation so it would make no sense to trade away the starter with the highest potential out of their current crop of starters, especially with no relief to be seen down in the minors. So if Venura was to get traded, it probably wouldn’t be until the offseason or even next season.

Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Indians
(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

So if Ventura is staying, the Royals need him to perform much better than he has this year. Through 12 starts this season, Yordano has issued the most walks in the American League, while posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career(6 strikeouts per 9). His ground ball percentage is down(44%) while his fly ball rate has rocketed(39.4%, up from 27.2% last year), which has also seen his home runs per 9 to go up as well. Basically, Ventura is getting hit harder than ever before and is way above the league average when it comes to the exit velocity off of his pitches:

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2016 is his third season in the big leagues and the advances that the Royals have expected from him just are not happening. There are still glimpses of the “ace” the Royals think he can be, but those become fewer and farther between each start. After Tuesday’s start, Ventura’s ERA rose to 5.32 while his FIP elevated to 5.29. Normally this would force him to the bullpen or even down to AAA, but the Royals just don’t have the starting pitching to let that happen. Instead, they need him to get his head on straight and at least produce like a league average pitcher.

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So do the Royals at least have some options with Ventura? If you mean ‘can he be sent to the minors’ the answer is yes. He still has options left, so a trip to Omaha isn’t completely out of the question. In fact, I would think that Ventura is on a short leash with the coaching staff and if they feel he needs to work on something in the minors, then he will be sent down. One comment made after the game on Tuesday I did find interesting, especially when it comes to what Ventura has been told by the coaching staff. Here is Orioles manager Buck Showalter who said this:

 

“No, I don’t like when any of my guys are put in harm’s way, especially a guy throwing that hard and having some problems with his command tonight. But [its] not the first time. Obviously, it must be something that’s OK because he continues to do it. It must be condoned. I don’t know.”

Now, I take umbrage with this. No way does the Kansas City organization approve of what Ventura did. That implication by Showalter just isn’t true:

The Royals had squashed that “bad boy image” from last year and the team had moved on from those problems. Ventura has been the only one who still seems to think that reacting in this manner is appropriate. So much bad could have come from this, whether it meant another player getting hurt(and lets be honest, the Royals already have enough players injured), or starting a feud that would distract from focusing on the main goal, which is winning games and eventually, returning to the playoffs. There is no way to know for sure, but I would guess Ventura spent Tuesday night and Wednesday in meetings with teammates, the coaching staff and possibly even upper management. Ventura is at a point in his career where he needs to fix his mentality. I made a comment on Tuesday night about how Ventura’s problem was not his arm, but what is in between his ears. Adam Jones of Baltimore might have said it better than I did:

Yordano has to fix his mental approach during the game. It could be learning yoga, or talking with a therapist or even Jason Kendall’s ‘Tough Love’ approach, but a change has to happen. If it doesn’t, he will have more to worry about than just being dropped from the Royals rotation.

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There are many reasons for the Royals to not give up on Yordano; he just turned 25, he has a team friendly contract that runs through 2019 and he has an electric arm that can be dominate when he wants to. But that is the thing-when he wants to, not all the time or even most of the time. Many young pitchers, especially those with dynamite stuff, struggle early in their career because they believe it is all about the velocity and not as much about the location or changing speeds. Ventura mentally seems younger than his age when it comes to maturity and hasn’t figured out how to deal with adversity. For Ventura to be a part of the Royals future, he has to learn how to let adversity roll off his back and learn from it. Otherwise, he will just be another in a long line of starters the Royals have failed to develop. This is the fork in the road; it’s time for Yordano to figure out which path he wants to take.

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The Royals and .500 Baseball

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Mother’s Day, 2016. The Kansas City Royals wrap up their series in Cleveland against the Indians, losing the rubber game and losing their fourth straight series in a row. The Royals now sit at 15-15 as they head to New York to take on the Yankees. To say there is concern for Royals fans would be an understatement; a few weeks into the new season and Kansas City does not look like the defending World Champions. But should you be concerned? Nope. Or should I say, “at least not yet”.

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I say not yet because just going by the numbers, this Royals team is not too far off from where they were last year within the American League. Let’s look at offense first, since there has been a lot of concern with the Royals producing with the bats as of late. The Royals right now are on par with where they were last year with numbers you would expect; top of the league in steals, near the top in BABIP, near the bottom in walks and pretty much all power statistics, which is fairly normal for the Royals the last few years. Even their strikeout percentage is the 5th lowest in the American League, which I’m sure is surprising to some. There has been a lot of talk so far this year on how guys like Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain have struck out more than normal, but the numbers say as a team they are about where they normally are. Where things differentiate is runs and RBI’s. Last year, the Royals drove in a healthy amount of runs and were in the upper portion of the league at year’s end. This year they are dead last and a lot of that can be pointed toward their inability to score runners in scoring position. The Royals have the third highest rate in the American League (3.55) of stranding runners in scoring position, with only Boston and Houston stranding more this year. To go along with this, Kansas City is just not creating runs, as evident by their being tied for last in wRC+ with 87. So offensively, this team is just not creating runs and being clutch, which are two main cogs of the Royals offense during these last two seasons.

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So what about the pitching? For the most part the Royals are putting up about the same numbers here as well. Going down the line, the stats match up with 2015; HR/9, BABIP, LOB% and GB% are all fairly close to what the Royals finished at last year. One area that has seen a slight bump is the walks per 9, which have jumped up from 3.03 last year to 3. 98 so far in 2016. It’s very believable at this stage in the season to see where a few extra base runners could cause a few more runs for the Royals, even despite the percentage of runners being stranded by the pitching staff on level with last year. The Royals hard hit percentage is also up a tad(29.4 last year, 32.1 so far in 2016) which is mildly concerning, but something the pitching staff can flip around, partially by improving their pitch location. Just taking a glance at the numbers, it shows that Kansas City’s pitchers have a few areas they can improve on, but nothing that can’t be adjusted for a quick fix.

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So just basing how the season has progressed by the numbers, Kansas City isn’t too far away from climbing their way back to the top of the American League Central. It’s easy to see a scenario where the hitters starting hitting better in tight situations and the pitchers start toning down the walks and not allowing as many pitches in the middle of the plate(and a little more good luck). The White Sox have a six game lead right now over the Royals, which is very attainable. Just as the Royals won’t play this way all season, the White Sox won’t dominate all season. Strap in folks; we are one hot streak away from the Royals blowing past .500 baseball.

 

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