Tag: Paulo Orlando

Quality and Quantity

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
(Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY)

Quality pitching might be the greatest necessity throughout the game of baseball. You could ask 100 baseball executives, scouts or analysts, and I’m sure almost all of them would point to quality starting pitching as a constant need for every team. Point blank, you can never have enough pitching. The Kansas City Royals can be counted as one of those teams, as evident by the way their starting rotation has performed this year. It has been so vital for Kansas City that I wrote about it here and here…and here. If there ever was a season where the Royals fate would be determined by their rotation, this would be the year. In fact, you could almost say that as their starters go, so go the Royals. When they struggle, the Royals struggle. When they are glorious, the team strives. Kansas City is currently riding a hot streak and while you will hear names like Gordon, Hosmer and Orlando linked to this streak, the biggest reason for their success can be attributed to the improvement of the starting pitching.

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals
(UPI/Bill Greenblatt)

Lets start by discussing the Royals pitchers and the quality start. For those that don’t know, a quality start is considered any start where the pitcher goes at least 6 innings while allowing 3 runs or less. It’s shouldn’t be a hard standard to meet, but occasionally it is an issue and has been for Kansas City this year. Obviously leading the way is Danny Duffy and his amazing season. Duffy has reeled off six straight quality starts and has 12 overall in his 18 starts this year. Ian Kennedy has spun four straight quality starts and Yordano Ventura has three straight. Even Dillon Gee got into the act on Thursday night, spinning his best start of the season and only his second quality start of the year. The starters seem to be working deeper into the game as of late, allowing the bullpen to not log as many innings as they have been and giving them a chance to be a bit sharper. This is big, because if the Royals pitching holds the other team’s offense, there is a good chance that the bullpen will also hold them in check. The Kansas City offense has a tendency to erupt late in the game, and the starting pitching as of late has given them the opportunity to do just that.

Ian Kennedy
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

During the month of July, the Royals scuffled and while the offense sputtered, the starting pitching wasn’t much better. For most of the year, the rotation has been near the bottom of most categories in the American League, but that has changed. The Kansas City starters have climbed up from last in innings pitched to 11th, next to last in starters WAR and FIP, and 10th in ERA. The starters have still given up the most home runs in the league and the 3rd highest walk percentage, but you can see some definite progression in the numbers. Teams are only batting .255 against Kansas City’s starters, 4th best in the league and they have the third best LOB(Left on Base) percentage of 74.7%. Their strike out numbers have risen as well, as they have the third best K rate in the league at 20.7%. There are still some flaws with the starters, as expected, but when you see the team has the second best Clutch statistic in the league(Kansas City is at 3.26 this year, with 2.00 considered an excellent number) it makes it appear as if the rotation is moving in the correct direction.

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The interesting part is that the Royals have not relied as heavily on their starters the last few years and it has seen them make back to back World Series appearances. The team was actually last in the American League last year in innings pitched, 4th highest ERA and FIP, 2nd lowest starters WAR and the highest walk rate in the league(7.6%). When digesting the 2016 numbers compared to last year, it appears the only big glaring difference would be the home runs allowed by the starters. Last year they allowed 107 home runs for the entire year, 6th lowest in the league. This year they have allowed 121 homers, 14 more in 232 less innings. The long ball has hurt the team this year and can be attributed as the big difference in the rotation this year. Luckily, they have only allowed 13 home runs over the last two weeks in 85 innings, which gives them a HR/9 ratio of 1.38. That is quite a bit better than the 1.60 ratio they have for the entire season. This team is never going to be quite like the Atlanta Braves rotations of the 1990’s but there is notable improvement over the last few weeks and some of the same competitiveness seen by Atlanta back in the day.

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With just forty games remaining in this 2016 season, the Royals are sitting at 62-60, 9 games out of the American League Central lead and 5.5 games out of the Wild Card. This latest hot streak has soared them back into the race and the starting pitching should get a lot of the praise for that. If this team wants to play in the postseason for the third consecutive year, they need the rotation to keep doing what they have been doing these last couple weeks. What was considered a lost cause just a few weeks ago now seems a distinct possibility for the team that has ‘been there, done that’. If the rest of the rotation follows Danny Duffy’s lead, there will be a fun comeback story to dwell on when October rolls around.

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In Paulo We Trust

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When the season started, it was expected that Paulo Orlando would be splitting time in right field with Jarrod Dyson, with Dyson probably seeing the bulk of the playing time. In 2015, Orlando proved that he was a worthy backup outfielder, posting a line of .249/.269/.444 in 251 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 89 and 1.0 fWAR. Orlando supplied above average defense with a bat that wasn’t spectacular but could place a timely hit from time to time with a bit of pop. Orlando had toiled in the minors for 9 seasons before 2015 and in some ways it was easy to see why. He had put together a couple of above average offensive seasons in the minors, but nothing that would really grab a scout looking for a gem in the minors. The Royals liked Orlando’s defense and speed, two pillars of Kansas City’s success these last few years. As much as most of us liked Paulo, we also figured with his past track record that he was a solid backup at best, whose flaws would be more glaring the more playing time he would receive. Instead, Paulo followed a sparse April(30 plate appearances in 9 games) with a spectacular May where he hit .429/.456/.603 and hasn’t looked back. So is Paulo for real?

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My first instinct with Orlando’s hot hitting was that as much as it appeared as if he had improved offensively, that at some point he would regress. The highest he has hit average wise at any level was .305, which he did in 2010 for the Royals AA team. Orlando has only two above average offensive seasons throughout his minor league career(2010 and 2014) and one of those seasons was just barely above league average(101 wRC+ in 2014 for Omaha, the Royals AAA team). In June, he still put up solid numbers, but they slipped a bit, down to .292/.323/.371 in 26 more plate appearances. Paulo went from platooning with Dyson to seeing the majority of the time in right field and in all honesty he had earned it. Orlando would follow that with a bigger dip in July, hitting .273/.291/.351 , which were still respectable numbers but it did appear as if he was finally coming down to earth. But early into August he is hitting .500/.519/.692 with a sOPS+ of 227. So what is he doing differently in 2016 to see such a big increase in production?

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It appears the biggest part of his success is coming from watching video. Back in June, Orlando discussed his use of video to scout out the opposing pitchers and would use what he learned when it came time take batting practice that day:

“It can slow down the game and help you a lot. Before every game, before I go practice, I watch. If a pitcher throws a lot of breaking balls, you go to BP and try to work on that.”

It’s also been obvious that playing every day has also helped his approach at the plate:

“When you play more games, you have your timing every day. Some guys throw hard — 95 to 97 mph — some guys throw 90 to 92. So when you play every day, you have more confidence in yourself.”

At the plate Paulo has improved his hitting, but a number of his stats point to him being in some ways the same player he was in 2015. His strike out percentage is about the same as last year (20.1% to 21.1%) while his walk percentage is still almost non-existent(2.0% to 2.3% last year). Orlando has continued to put the ball in play at a high rate(77.9 % this year, 79.1% in 2015) but his placement of where he is hitting the ball is a bit different this year. Last year, Paulo was pulling the ball at a 36% clip, while this year he is hitting the ball to center field 39.7% of the time. In fact, he is even hitting the ball to right field more this year (30.6%) than he is to left (29.7%). It’s obvious that his approach at the plate this year has been more focused on putting the ball in play and going with the pitch than trying to pull the ball and use his power. The power, is the one part of his game that has been sacrificed so far in 2016.
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One of the positives for Orlando last year was the fact that he showed some power from the right side of the plate, something the Royals didn’t have a plethora of in 2015. Last year Orlando slugged at a .432 clip with 27 extra base hits and an ISO of .195. So far in 2016(and as of  August 11 he has played in exactly the same amount of games as last year, with 60 more plate appearances), Paulo is slugging at a .432 rate with 22 extra base hits and an ISO of .105. It’s obvious with his approach this year he has sacrificed some of his power this year for an increase in his on-base percentage(which is up by .082 this year). This also means his hard hit rate is down(26.5%,  down from 31.4% in 2015), but his soft hit rate is down as well(17.6% from 19.9% last year). How you feel about this is determined on whether or not  you believe the Royals would be better off with someone with more power or someone getting on base. To me, as much as Kansas City needs a bit more power in their lineup, even more in need is someone who can get on base consistently. Orlando is doing just that so this could probably be filed under the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it’ category.
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In what has become a very frustrating season for Kansas City, Orlando’s production has been a bright light and while some of us(myself included) have been thinking he will start to regress, time is proving us wrong. Within the last week Orlando has been moved to the leadoff spot for the Royals, a spot that has been lacking this year. Kansas City’s leadoff batters are hitting .243/.277/.314, all either in last or next to last in the American League this year. The Royals also have just 23 extra base hits from leadoff this year, the lowest in the league. I’m not sold that Orlando is the answer at the top(he does have only 12 career walks during his two years in the major leagues), but it was also obvious that mainstay Alcides Escobar wasn’t the answer either. The Royals have no immediate answer at the top of the order, which is why manager Ned Yost is giving it a try:
“(We’re) just giving him a shot,” Yost said in the dugout before Tuesday’s game. “We’ve been thinking about it for a while. Paulo’s been swinging the bat good.”
In two games, he is 2 for 11 at the top, not exactly proving Yost right but it is the smallest of small sample sizes. At this point, it is worth a try to see if he can still get on base at a good clip. No matter whether at the top or farther down the lineup, Paulo Orlando has earned his playing time this year. Like Lorenzo Cain, he didn’t start playing baseball until his teenage years in Brazil, so his development is not quite the same as the normal player. Orlando has proven himself a quick learner and could be seeing more improvement before a regression sets in. Not bad for a guy who didn’t even make his major league debut until the age of 29.
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Dealer’s Choice

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The second half of the Major League Baseball season is now underway, and with that comes the looming trade deadline, scheduled for August 1st this year. Teams can trade players throughout August, but a player has to pass through waivers first before a deal can be done. So for the next few weeks, teams will be trading players at a greater rate, since there are no restrictions to any deal they would like to procure. With that being said, the Kansas City Royals have a few needs they would like to fill before the deadline. The Royals probably won’t be making the splash they made before last year’s deadline, as the farm system was gutted last summer and with a number of injuries to the team this year, there isn’t as much depth as in years past. So don’t look for a Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto to end up in their lap this year. With that being said, the two I will be looking at today is starting pitching (which needs an immediate upgrade) and right field. Now, before anyone asks, yes Paulo Orlando is having a great season for Kansas City, playing mostly right field. While Paulo has been getting on base, he hasn’t been producing as many runs as maybe the team would like and there is possibly even a worry that he won’t be able to sustain his current pace. Now…let’s look at some trade possibilities for the Royals, beginning with starting pitchers.

MLB: MAR 20 Spring Training - Astros at Phillies
20 MAR 2016

Jeremy Hellickson

I’ve long been a supporter of Hellickson since his Tampa years, and secretly hoped the Royals would swing a deal for him. Hellickson has had a bounce back year for Philadelphia this year, throwing 105 innings with a 107 ERA+,  lower FIP and WHIP and a higher SO/W ratio(3.44). Hellickson is still only 29 and will be a free agent after the season, so the Royals wouldn’t have to keep him once the season was over. Hellickson is a ground ball pitcher, which would seem to be a good fit with the Royals infield defense. With Hellickson on the upswing, this would be a good time to pick him up and toss him into the rotation.

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Rich Hill

Hill is inevitably on everyone’s list and not surprisingly so. Hill is coveted because A) He is signed only through the 2016 season B) He is only(only!!) making $6 million this year C) He’s left-handed and D) Billy Beane likes to deal his players at the deadline. Hill has dealt with a groin injury this year but that most likely won’t affect his value on the market. Hill has had a good season when healthy, posting 76 innings with an ERA+ of 184, 2.57 FIP, 3.21 SO/W ratio and 3.0 WAR. Hill resurrected his career last year but shouldn’t cost much if Kansas City decided to part with a prospect. Hill would be a good addition to the Royals rotation, but there is a long list of teams who have been scouting him over the last couple of months.

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Matt Moore

Moore is another lefty that the Royals have been linked to as an interested party. Moore was once considered a top of the rotation type pitcher but has had control and health issues during his time in Tampa. Moore has thrown 109 innings this year, compiling an ERA+ of 93, 4.59 FIP and a 2.94 SO/W ratio. Moore still has electric stuff and is signed through this year, but has team options through 2019. If the Royals wanted, they could acquire Moore and possibly keep him with the team for three more seasons. He is still only 27 years old and would be an intriguing possibility if Kansas City decided to go this route. Tampa Bay appears to be in trading mode, so I would think there is a good chance Moore is dealt before the end of July.

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(STAFF PHOTO / DENNIS MAFFEZZOLI)

Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi is possibly the most intriguing name on this list, as he came up through the minors in the Kansas City farm system after being acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade. For the longest time Odorizzi was considered a future mainstay of the Royals staff, only to be dealt to Tampa in the Wade Davis deal(which is what we will refer to it moving forward). Odorizzi has seen Amodest success with the Rays the last few years, racking up 104 innings so far this year, with an ERA+ of 93, 4.39 FIP and a WAR of 1.3. There is some familiarity for Kansas City with Odorizzi and much like Moore, if Jake was acquired the Royals would have him under contract through the 2019 season. It might cost Kansas City a bit more to pick up Odorizzi because of the contract, but he also has a better recent track record than Moore and Kansas City would already have an idea of what they would be getting with Odorizzi. If I have a favorite on this list, it’s this guy.

Other names to keep an eye on: Erasmo Ramirez, Ervin Santana, Andrew Cashner, Dan Straily and Jorge De La Rosa

Now, let’s move on to the outfielders…

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Jay Bruce

Bruce might be the most coveted position player available this trade season and is a good bet to be out of Cincinnati by the end of the month. Bruce is signed through the season but has a $13 million team option for 2017. He could be someone the Royals could acquire to keep through this current contending window and then allow to leave at the end of next year. But…I tend to think Bruce is a long shot to end up in Kansas City for a few reasons. One, it will probably take a decent size haul to trade for him in the first place, possibly more than the Royals currently have to offer. Two, while Bruce has put up good power numbers this year(18 home runs, .538 slugging percentage and 171 total bases), he strikes out quite a bit(69 times so far this year, 145 last year) and defensively he is a below average defender. Throw in the fact that he is tops on a number of teams trade list, and you have the likelihood of Bruce ending up in another contenders pocket when the dust finally settles on August 1st.

MLB: JUL 12 Athletics at Indians
12 July 2015

Josh Reddick

Reddick is most contending team’s wet dream; free agent at the end of the season, reasonable salary and is putting up good numbers this season. It’s been reported that the Royals have scouted both Reddick and his teammate Rich Hill, so there is interest from Kansas City in the Oakland slugger. I would normally be gung-ho about this move, especially since Reddick is hitting .295/.369/.426 with an OPS+ of 117 and 1.4 WAR. But Reddick has been dealing with a thumb injury and it seems to have sapped his power; so far this year he has only 5 home runs and 14 total extra base hits. I think this still might be a good acquisition for Kansas City, as the numbers show no major change in his hard hit rate and is also a plus defender in the outfield. If the team was looking to upgrade in right field, they could do a lot worse than Josh Reddick.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
(Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY)

Melvin Upton, Jr.

I’m going to be honest: I’ve never been a big fan of Upton. I would even go so far as to say I have long felt he is overrated. This goes back to his early years in Tampa Bay, where I felt he was living off his potential and occasional bursts of solid production. He seemed to me to be an athletic guy with the “5 tools” executives and scouts covet but only really making use of one or two of them. In my eyes, he seemed to strike out too much and focus his attention on the longball, turning himself into a one-dimensional hitter. All this being said, I am thoroughly shocked at his production this year and even more shocked that he is out-hitting his brother(106 OPS+ compared to Justin’s 80). Upton is putting up numbers we haven’t seen from him since 2012, posting a line of .262/.311/.454 with 16 home runs, 44 RBI’s and 2.2 WAR. These are all really good numbers and you can see why he has been mentioned in many a trade rumor. But here is the elephant in the room-Upton’s contract. Upton is in year 4 of a 5 year deal that is paying him $15.45 million this year and $16.45 million next year. That is waaaaaaay too much money for a guy who has racked up only 1.2 WAR in 3.5 years.  The only way Kansas City would acquire him is if San Diego was willing to eat a large chunk of that contract, and even then they would be hesitant. If the Padres are willing to eat most of the money, there is a chance this could happen. If not, barely a discussion will happen between the two sides.

Other names to keep an eye on:  Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Matt Joyce and Odubel Herrera

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The one thing to remember before the trade deadline is that there is probably at least a 1,000 to 1 ratio of ‘rumors’ to ‘rumors with actual legs on them’, so take many of them with a grain of salt. With that being said, it appears something will happen on the Royals front and possibly even before August 1st. Kansas City can still make a move after that, but that will require the players involved in the deal to pass through waivers unclaimed first, which is hard to do. Last year Cueto and Zobrist were the big prizes and GM Dayton Moore was able  to reel them in. This year, Dayton might have to be more creative when it comes to piecing together another team that can make a deep playoff run.

 

 

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In Due Time:A First Half Look At The Royals

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When contemplating on just one word to describe the Kansas City Royals first half of the 2016 season, a number of words flooded my brain: struggle, streaky, battle, fluky and frustration all seemed fitting. But the one word that seems to fit more than any other is ‘adversity’, a word that has fit like a glove since before the season even started. Whether it has been the struggles of the starting rotation or the streaky offense, the Royals have not had the smooth sailing they were witness to for a large chunk of the 2015 season. Probably the biggest roadblock in front of them this season has been the litany of injuries that have occurred.

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The walking wounded actually began back in Spring Training, as Jarrod Dyson, who was in line to see a big increase in playing time in right field, came down with a strained oblique. In May, starters Kris Medlen and Chris Young would both venture to the disabled list, after struggling through their previous few starts. Late in May, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas would collide chasing a foul ball  in Chicago and the news was grim; Gordon would miss a month with a wrist injury while Moustakas would have a torn ACL and was expected to miss the rest of the season. A week after that collision, catcher Salvador Perez would incur a quad contusion after third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert would run into Salvy while chasing a pop fly. Luckily, Perez would sit out for a week but not have to make an appearance on the disabled list. The injury bug would return in June, with outfielder Brett Eibner(after only being recalled a few days earlier) going on the DL on June 1st with a left ankle sprain, returning after two weeks. Lorenzo Cain would make his first DL appearance in two years, pulling up lame and grabbing his hamstring after running out a ground ball just a few weeks ago. To cap it all off, closer Wade Davis, a man who some of us believe is actually a machine, would deal with a forearm strain and land on the DL with Cain just this past week. If you are taking notes at home, that is four Royals All-Stars that have seen time on the DL so far this season and that is just through 88 games. One of the biggest strengths for Kansas City the last two years was their health, as they were able to make two big playoff runs while dealing with very limited injuries to their main nucleus. The pendulum always swings back around and it appears the Royals dance with lady luck has ended on the injury front.

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Speaking of turbulence, the Royals starting pitching has been more than just rocky so far in 2016. Kansas City starting pitching is next to last in innings pitched, 3rd highest in walks per 9, 1st in home runs per 9, 4th highest ERA, highest FIP, and lowest WAR in the American League. The only area where the starting pitching is moderately succeeding is strikeouts per 9, which is the 3rd highest in the league. With these numbers it is easy to see why the Royals have struggled and are currently looking for upgrades on the trade market. Chris Young, who was a vital part of the Royals playoff run last year, has allowed the most home runs in the American League(26 in only 56 innings pitched) and has been banished to the bullpen. Ian Kennedy has been about what was expected from him; at times he has looked phenomenal and has shut down other teams, while others he has been a victim of the long-ball, allowing the second most home runs in the AL( 21). Yordano Ventura has not looked like the ace that he could be capable of, as he has struggled(including inciting a melee in Baltimore) and others he has put together some very quality starts(like just this past Friday). Edinson Volquez hasn’t been as consistent as he was in 2015, yo-yoing from start to start. The one shining light has been the re-emergence of Danny Duffy, who has looked like a pitcher who has figured something out. Duffy started the year in the  bullpen but was moved to the rotation in May and has been splendid ever since. He has thrown 81 innings to this point, striking out over 10 batters per 9, walking less than 2 per 9 and stranding runners at an 83% clip. Duffy’s numbers just jump out on the page: highest K-BB% in a Royals uniform, highest soft hit % of his career, and the fastest average fastball velocity of his career. If the Royals can get some more consistency from Volquez and Ventura, while picking up a cheap arm in a trade, they might be able to stabilize the rotation and improve on numbers that shouldn’t be hard to improve upon.

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While the starting pitching has been a major trouble area, the offense has been very bi-polar. Much like the last few years, the Kansas City offense is a very streaky bunch. As a team they are next to last in runs, last in RBI’s, home runs, walk %, isolated power, and 12th in wRC+. Most other offensive categories the Royals are around the middle of the pack, but the Royals also get their runs in a different manner than most other American League teams. Eric Hosmer has turned in a season worthy of his All-Star starting nod, hitting .299/.355/.476 with 13 home runs and 49 RBI’s. Salvador Perez has seen an increase in power this season and has turned into a serious threat in the middle of the lineup(writers note: he even hit a home run right after I typed this). Paulo Orlando has been a pleasant surprise this year, hitting .324/.347/.417, sacrificing some of the power we saw from him last year for a better on base percentage. Lorenzo Cain struggled in April, but came on like wildfire in May and was putting up good numbers before his injury this month. Kendrys Morales struggled through the first two months of the season, but looked like a completely different hitter in June, a month where he put up video game numbers. Even Mike Moustakas was putting up great power numbers before his injury in May. But the real surprise of the offense has been the call-ups Kansas City has been using to fill the holes for injured players.

MLB: Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals
(Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY)

The great thing about this Royals team is not only the depth that they have compared to years past, but the amount of production we have seen from players that were not expected to contribute. Whit Merrifield has been a life-changer for Kansas City, posting a line of .291/.313/.407 with 1.4 bWar in just 46 games. Whit was originally supposed to fill the super utility role for Kansas City, but instead ended up taking the second base job from the now released Omar Infante. Cheslor Cuthbert, who saw some time in Kansas City last year, was recalled to take over at third base for Moustakas and struggled a bit the first few weeks of seeing regular playing time. Since May 27(right around the Moose injury), Cuthbert is hitting .293/.331/.471 with 7 home runs, 22 RBI’s and a BAbip of .343. Defensively, he is not quite the glovesman that Moustakas is, but he has proved to be more than capable, with an UZR of 6.2 and making 83% of plays that are considered unlikely(which are considered normally to be made 10-40% of the time). The man who has seen the least amount of time out of this group is Brett Eibner, as he has only played in 18 games. Eibner has been productive in that span, hitting .269/.333/.500 with a BAbip of .343 and a wRC+ of 116. Eibner has 8 extra base hits in his 18 games and is a bat that can supply the power the Royals heavily covet. All three players have stepped in when the Royals have needed them to and have produced in many a tight situation. It wasn’t expected for these three to be heavy contributors, but so far in 2016 they have probably helped this team stay in the pennant race.

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While this Royals team isn’t gliding into a postseason berth like they did last year, they are still very much in contention, even being 7 games out in the American League Central but only 4 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. The hope is that the Royals can stabilize the rotation while hitting a bit more consistently, which should increase their chances of a playoff spot. Injuries have hurt Kansas City so far this year but they haven’t crippled them and that has allowed them to stay in the race. We have seen over the last couple seasons that this is a team that strives on adversity. If that stays true to form, then we should be seeing a stellar second half from our ‘Boys in Blue’.

 

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Cain Is Not Able, Heads To DL

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On Tuesday evening, the injury bug hit the Kansas City Royals yet again. This time, it struck All-Star centerfielder Lorenzo Cain, as he pulled up lame running out a ground ball. As most know that follow the Royals, this is not the first time Cain has dealt with a leg injury. In fact, the Royals have spent the last few years trying to get him to kick the habit of lunging at the first base bag when running out grounders and for the most part he has been successful. Unfortunately, this time Cain is dealing with a strained left hamstring and was placed on the disabled list on Wednesday. So what effect will this have on Kansas City?

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Let’s state the obvious first: it is never good to lose a player of Cain’s caliber, let alone the person who is probably the best player on the team. The Royals will obviously miss his stellar defense in center field, but this might turn out to be a nice break for Cain. Cain hasn’t been tearing it up offensively in June, hitting .280/..309/.333 with 6 RBI’s. He’s not hitting poorly, but he’s also not producing the way he was in May; .351/.387/.577 with 6 home runs and 25 RBI’s throughout the second month of the season. It is easy to see where some of the Royals struggles earlier this month can be traced back to Cain, as he has driven in about 20 runs less this month. I feel like I am dogging Cain for the past month, which I’m not; there is no way he would drive in 25 RBI’s every month. But with him batting in the middle of the Kansas City batting order, you would hope he would have contributed a bit more over the span of a full month. Sometimes a player needs to take a step back from the everyday grind of baseball to recharge and get back into a groove. Cain will be allotted that time for the next couple weeks.

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So who will take Cain’s place in his absence? I would have to believe we will see more Jarrod Dyson, as he is a solid fit in center field. Dyson has had a rough June(.229/.357/.257 in only 43 plate appearances) as he has seen his playing time dwindle with Paulo Orlando seeing the majority of playing time in right field due to his hot hitting. Dyson will bring most of the same stellar defense that Cain brings to the table, but offensively he will be a few steps back. There’s also a chance that Brett Eibner, who was recalled again from Omaha once Cain went to the DL, could see some time in center, a position he has played in the minors. Playing Eibner in center field could be interesting, as he is a step back defensively but would add another power bat to the Royals lineup. The Royals tend to put an emphasis on defense the majority of the time, so Eibner would probably see less playing time but it might be a good litmus test to see how he does defensively for a couple of weeks until Cain is back.

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Speaking of Cain coming back, you might be wondering about the timetable for his return. The word is that Cain has a Grade 1+ strained left hamstring, which is defined as follows:

With a grade 1 hamstring strain you may have tightness in back of the thigh but will be able to walk normally. You will be aware of some hamstring discomfort and unable to run at full speed. There will be mild swelling and spasm. Bend your knee against resistance is unlikely to reproduce much pain.

This would be why most didn’t notice a limp after Tuesday night’s game:

This would also explain why they are expecting him to return right after the All-Star break:

In other words, the injury came at an opportune time. With the All-Star break just a few weeks away, that gives the Royals just a tad over two weeks to let Cain rest and get healed without losing him for a long stretch of games. I would also say he will not be playing every single game upon his return, as they will want to monitor the hamstring and make sure not to re-aggravate it. The fact this isn’t Cain’s first leg injury is a concern, but an injury like this would be much more painful during the pennant stretch than it is in late June/early July.

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An injury to an All-Star is never a good deal for any team,  but the Royals should be able to hold the team together during Cain’s absence. Kendrys Morales is on a hot streak offensively and with Alex Gordon back in the fold the Royals offense isn’t as patched together as it was a month ago. If there is a real concern here, it is that Cain has had a myriad of leg injuries throughout his career, most notably back in 2012. You have to hope for the Royals sake that this is just a lone event and not a sign of things to come. Cain has stayed healthy for almost a two-year stretch(his last DL stint was in April of 2014) and the Royals need him healthy if they are going to make a return appearance in the playoffs. The Royals have the depth to wait out this injury and shouldn’t notice a big drop-off in his absence. If you really want a sign as to how the Royals have changed over the last 4-6 years, here it is. The Royals will be without their best player for a few weeks and there isn’t a giant alarm going off. This is progress, folks.

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Is It Time For a Beltran-Royals Reunion?

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
May 30, 2003.

With the trade deadline looming about six weeks away, it is the time of the year where speculation runs rampant. In fact, be prepared for so many rumors during this time period that you can probably discard about 3/4 of them from your brain. One rumor that I can guarantee you will hear a bunch moving forward is whether or not the Kansas City Royals will visit a reunion between themselves and current New York Yankee Carlos Beltran. For the uninformed, Beltran actually began his big league career in Kansas City, playing there from 1998 through the middle of the 2004 season, when he was dealt to Houston. The Royals even attempted to sign him before the 2014 season; but despite a spirited try, Beltran decided to head back to the bright lights of New York City. So should the Royals bring Beltran back to the midwest? Let’s take a look.

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When this subject was initially broached to me back in May, I scoffed. I just didn’t believe that Beltran, at 39 years old, was a good fit for the Royals. He is a below average defender now, which probably leaves him in the position to DH more than anything else and the Royals have Kendrys Morales, who is also without a defensive position in the field. Add in his age and how batters are normally in full-blown regression at this stage of the game, adding Beltran didn’t seem like a step forward for Kansas City. But as we sit here in June, Morales is still struggling and Beltran has done something I wasn’t expecting: his numbers have gone skyward during this last month. With that said, let’s break those numbers down a bit farther to see if he would be a good fit in Kansas City.

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(Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY)

Let’s start with the basics. Beltran’s line so far this year sits at .282/.316/.573 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s. To really grasp this, for the entire 2015 campaign, Beltran hit 19 homers and knocked in 67 runs while hitting .276/.337/.471. I like to dig deeper though, to fully weigh just how everything breaks down. Beltran’s OPS+ currently sits 135 compared to 120 last year and unless something drastically goes awful, has the same bWAR(1.0) as he did in 2015. His walk rate is down by quite a bit from 2015, as his strike out rate has gone up, but I tend to think you can link those together a bit with the increase in power. In fact, Beltran’s ISO this year has rocketed up almost one hundred points from last year, .291 from .195.

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
(Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY

Now to the real meat and potatoes that I feel will give us a good grasp of Beltran’s performance; how hard is Beltran hitting the ball and how often? In an interesting swerve, Beltran’s line drive rate is down(18.3%), his ground ball rate is up(39.6%), while his fly ball rate is the same from 2015. But his Home Run to Fly Ball ratio has doubled(22.5% from 11.1%) while his hard hit rate has gone up(36.7%) and his soft hit rate is down(11.2%, the lowest it has been since 2006). This goes in line with his exit velocity this year, which has been above the league average for all but two weeks this year:

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As you can tell, Beltran’s exit velocity has been above 92.5 MPH for a large chunk of the 2016 season, an increase from 2015. In fact last year barely saw him get in the 95 MPH range:

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So what does all this tell us? It tells me that Beltran seems to be not only seeing the ball very well this year but is also hitting the ball with some authority. This is a good sign for Beltran, as he is not getting beat by the fastball, a common occurrence for player’s his age. In fact Beltran has been within 5% of his hits coming on fastballs for the last six seasons. It’s a bit odd to see a hitter staying close to his same numbers near the tail end of his career, so the fact that Beltran’s hit selection hasn’t seen a drastic change is a good sign if Kansas City wanted to go after him.

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
June 1, 2003.

One more positive from Beltran’s numbers is that there isn’t a drastic difference between when he hits from the right or the left hand side of the plate. Against right-handed pitching he is hitting .289/.318/.563 while against left-handed pitching he is hitting .280/.321/.587. I’m actually a bit surprised by this, since Beltran plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, which has that short right field porch. All you have to do to hit it out of Yankee Stadium is to hit the ball 314 feet to right field and you have yourself a home run. This would seem to benefit Beltran when he bats left handed, which he does the majority of the time(142 at bats hitting left handed, 75 right handed). But just peeking at the stats show that there isn’t a giant split in those numbers, which tells me he is just flat-out raking, not just taking advantage of his home surroundings. I’m sure Beltran’s numbers are a tad skewed because of his stadium(11 of his 16 home runs are in New York) but if you are looking at the entire offensive package, Beltran is putting up solid numbers almost everywhere, including his four games in Oakland. If there were concerns about Beltran coming to play in Kansas City and hitting in a pitcher’s park like Kauffman Stadium, I would tend to lean toward that not being a big issue moving forward.

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
May 31, 2003. 

So after looking at all of Beltran’s numbers, the question will be asked again: should the Royals look into bringing him back? I can’t believe I am going to say this but yes, I think they should. With Morales continuing to struggle and the combo of Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando starting to come down to earth, it might be a good time to take a flyer on Beltran. The Royals shouldn’t give up a major prospect(or a needed piece of the current roster) for Beltran, but I tend to think New York won’t ask for something like that. Beltran’s contract only runs through the rest of this season and there have been whispers that he might decide to retire once the season is up. It’s conceivable to think the Royals could take on his contract for the last few months of the season and see if he can help them offensively. It would be assumed that Beltran could see some time in right field(especially if Morales starts to hit) but it makes sense for him to mostly be a DH if he came to Kansas City. The Royals have had some offensive struggles as of late and adding a solid bat for the stretch run might be just what this team needs. While the Royals haven’t looked like a contender during this most recent road trip, as I type this they are only four games out of first place in the American League Central, or within striking distance. Reuniting Beltran with the Royals(plus Alex Gordon returning from the disabled list) might be just what the Kansas City offense needs. Since we all love feel good stories, can you think of a better one than the future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, returning to the team that he began his career with, and helping them reach the playoffs for the third consecutive season? Sounds like the storybook ending that Beltran’s career deserves.

 

 

 

 

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Opportunity Knocks

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(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

This past Sunday, Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon and third baseman Mike Moustakas collided in foul territory chasing after a fly ball. The collision looked nasty for both parties, with it seemingly being worse on Gordon, as he seemed to bang his head on the back of the tarp lined against the stands. Gordon was taken out of the game in the following inning and the news for him dropped on Monday:

The initial diagnosis was that Gordon would miss about 3-4 weeks , which would mean Gordon will probably be back in late June:

Moustakas meanwhile was considered “day to day”(but aren’t we all) by the club with a contusion to his knee. Moose had sat out the entire three game series in Minnesota this week and went in for more tests on Thursday. The news was not positive:

A torn ACL is bad news, as it means Moustakas will be out for the remainder of the 2016 season, a season that saw his power numbers soar. With the Royals losing two All-Stars for a significant amount of time, this means that someone will have to attempt to fill their shoes. It appears for the moment that Cheslor Cuthbert and Brett Eibner will get that opportunity.

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This is not Cuthbert’s first rodeo with the Royals, as he spent a bit of time with Kansas City last year while also working on his second stint so far this year. Last year Cuthbert produced a line of .217/.280/.370 in the big leagues with 1 homer, 8 RBI’s and an OPS+ of 75 in just 19 games. So far this year in 15 games, Cuthbert has a line of .237/.250/.339 1 home run, 3 RBI’s and an OPS+ of 60. Obviously both years have been just a small sample size for Cheslor, but in that time he has shown an ability to get on base and has played slightly above average defense at third base. Cuthbert got off to a hot start down in Omaha this year and while he got off to a quick start his first few games in Kansas City (.286/.310/.464 in his first seven games), he has tapered off just a bit over the last eight games. I don’t believe Cuthbert will produce the kind of power Moustakas was producing early this year, but he does have a little pop in his bat and is more than adequate on defense. Now that Cheslor knows he will probably be seeing regular playing time for the Royals(and I’m sure the occasional Whit Merrifield start sprinkled in there as well), it will be interesting to see if he relaxes a bit and embraces the playing time he will be receiving the rest of this season.

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Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann

Then there is Eibner, just recalled earlier today. Eibner has been an intriguing prospect for Kansas City, a former second round draft pick back in 2010. Eibner put together a strong 2015 campaign for the Royals AAA team in Omaha(.303/.364/.514 with 19 homers, 81 RBI’s and 200 total bases) and was looking to do the same early in 2016(.309/.411/.537 with 10 homers, 28 RBI’s and 80 total bases in just 41 games). Now what Eibner brings to the mix is not only a solid bat and solid glove, but also a little bit of speed. Many have felt Eibner should have been given a shot at playing a bit in right field last year in Kansas City and his name was even thrown around a bit this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get regular playing time on the corners in the outfield while Gordon is out, with some mix of Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson in right,  while Eibner and Merrifield patrol left. You hear a lot about players just wanting a chance to prove themselves and Eibner looks to be getting his now.

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I know many will view Gordon and Moustakas’ injuries as a negative(and trust me, it is) but there is also a positive to them missing time. The positive is that the Royals will now get a chance to view Cuthbert, Eibner and Merrifield on a semi-regular basis and assess just how they help the team moving forward. Obviously how they play will determine how much we see of them this season but if any of them produce on a consistent basis, that might help their spot in the organization in future years. Merrifield’s versatility is a big bonus for this Royals team and probably has the best chance of sticking but both Cuthbert and Eibner could increase their value this year. With Moustakas becoming a free agent after the 2017 season and right field not fully secured, both could work their way into a spot on the team. You hear a lot spoken from teams about “grabbing the brass ring” and “play well to force their hand”, and all three players have a chance to do just that moving forward. They might not be future All-Stars or middle of the lineup producers, but your entire team is not made up of MVP caliber players. Sometimes you just need a steady hand that a manager knows he can rely on.

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Opportunity is a beautiful thing, as it can spread surprise and unlock production in an unlikely way. Losing Gordon for a month and Moose for the rest of the year are big blows to a team that is hoping to contend again this year, but it’s not always the end of the world. The Royals have been a lucky team these last few years as they have not had to deal with very many major injuries to their key players. The true mettle of a team can be measured by how they react to adversity and things are as adverse as they have been in Kansas City in awhile. Eibner, Merrifield and Cuthbert have an opportunity before them that most did not expect when the season began. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if any of them step up and lock themselves into a regular spot on the roster. To be continued…

 

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The 2016 Kansas City Royals: Top of the Mountain

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Last year in my Kansas City Royals preview I asked this question after they came one game away from winning the World Series: “So now what?”. We got our answer, which was the Royals returning to the Series and winning the whole damn thing in just five games. The Royals last year had one goal on their mind and they were going to do everything in their power to reach that goal of being world champions. This Royals team didn’t listen to critics, analysts or even numbers when it came to reaching the top of the mountain. Now that the Royals have reached the pinnacle of the sport, the question now becomes ‘Can they repeat?’…and the answer might surprise you.

New York Mets v Kansas City Royals
(Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

I’m going to break down the Royals into segments, starting here with the starting rotation. In 2015, the rotation put up decent numbers but wasn’t the most reliable group of moundsmen in baseball. As a team, the Royals were 22nd in starters WAR, 24th in IP, 15th in LOB%, 9th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. The rotation was fronted by Edinson Volquez, who duplicated his WAR from 2014 in Pittsburgh and was the most reliable starter manager Ned Yost had. In fact, looking at his numbers, Volquez was very close to replicating his bounce back 2014 season and that is meant in the most positive of ways. Yordano Ventura was initially looked at as the ‘Ace’ last year but efficiency and maturity became an issue. Ventura still put up decent numbers(8.6 K/9, 3.57 FIP and 102 ERA+ over 163 innings) but there is hope that he can put up stellar numbers in this, his third big league season. New acquisition Ian Kennedy was acquired for one reason-eat innings. Kennedy had another poor season last year in San Diego(4.51 FIP, 85 ERA+) but he did strike out 9.3 batters per 9 innings and there is hope that with Kansas City’s defense and above average outfield defense his numbers will improve this year. Chris Young is returning for his second season in Kansas City and was a strong veteran presence in the Royals rotation last year. Young was exactly what the Royals needed, posting a a WHIP of 1.086, and an ERA+ of 135 over 123 innings. Young split time last year between the rotation and bullpen and will look to do the same this year. Rounding out the starting five is Kris Medlen, who returned last year at midseason from Tommy John Surgery. Medlen only threw 58 innings last year, but more is expected from him this year with hope he will return to something resembling his 2012-2013 form. Medlen was acquired more for this year than last, so what he truly can do post surgery is likely to be seen this year. The Royals have some depth this year in case of injury and struggles, with Mike Minor being a possibility after June. They also have Danny Duffy and Dillon Gee stowed away in the bullpen for now(and more than likely they will break the glass for emergency at some point this year), with a few guys in the minors a possibility as well. Kyle Zimmer’s name has been long rumored as contributing this year, and time will tell if he is physically and mentally ready for the big time. A guy like Miguel Almonte is also an outside shot, but there is probably a greater chance he sees time out of the bullpen this year.

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Speaking of the bullpen, the Royals are returning a large part of the core of a pen that has been a force in baseball for a number of years. Last year the Royals were 5th in baseball in relievers WAR, 17th in K/9, 1st in LOB%, 2nd in ERA, and 10th in FIP. Wad Davis returns for his third year in the bullpen for Kansas City, following two of the greatest seasons a relievers has ever tallied. Over the last two seasons, Davis has accumulated 139 innings, striking out 187 batters while posting an ERA of 0.97, an FIP of 172, and an ERA+ of 418(league average is 100). The one thing that will be different is that this will be his first full year as the Royals closer which means there will be a new bridge to Wade in the 8th inning. That bridge looks to be former Royals closer Joakim Soria, returning to Kansas City after stints in Texas, Detroit and Pittsburgh. Last year Soria racked up the most appearances of his career while posting his lowest ERA and highest ERA+ since 2010. Kelvin Herrera will also return to help setup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luke Hochevar used as well in that position. Gee and Duffy will be the longmen out of the pen, with both occasionally starting while Chien-Ming Wang resurrected his career this spring and will also be used out of the bullpen. The great thing about the Royals is that there are more arms ready to go in the minors, as guys like Scott Alexander, Brian Duensing, Matt Strahm, Alec Mills and Brian Flynn could all see action this year. Even starters like Almonte and Zimmer could be used in relief at some point. This is the deepest part of the Royals team and is so good that it makes the Royals starters only have to go 5-6 innings a start if necessary to hand it over to the biggest strength the Royals have.

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One thing that has to be mentioned here is that the Royals pitching numbers(both starters and relievers) wouldn’t be so good if not for the Royals incredible defense. Last year the Royals had the highest defensive rating in baseball, the 2nd most defensive runs saved,  and the highest UZR. If you want to know the real reason the Royals have excelled these last two years, it’s because of the bullpen and the defense. The Royals currently employ three returning Gold Glove winners from 2015(Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez) while also having Alex Gordon patrolling left(a four time Gold Glove winner) and Lorenzo Cain in center, two of the best defensive players at their positions. Throw in above average defenders all around the diamond(Mike Moustakas at third, Omar Infante at second) and a right field platoon of above average outfielders(Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando) and you have a team with above average defense at every position. This team was specifically built this way and has given the Royals an unfair advantage for a number of years. I would expect more of the same from the Royals ‘D’ in 2016.

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That leaves us with the offense, which took a big leap forward in 2015. Kansas City is returning 8 of the 9 starters in their lineup this year so they are hoping for similar output as they saw last year from a number of players who elevated their game. Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales and Lorenzo Cain all improved on their 2014 offensive seasons which helped the Royals offense be a bit more potent last year. The team ranked 5th in offensive WAR, 5th in stolen bases, 7th in runs scored, 1st in lowest strikeout %, 11th in BABIP, 11th in OBP, and 10th in wRC+. The Royals are infamously known as a team that doesn’t walk or hit many home runs, which shows up in the totals; they had the worst walk % in baseball, 24th in home runs but 11th in sluggening percentage. Kansas City is smart to play to their strengths offensively, which they did to a ‘t’ last year  but there are a few areas they can improve on. Alcides Escobar struggled for a good portion of 2015, but could see a jump in his age 29 season, as he has shown a pattern of improving on offense in even years. Last year, both Omar Infante and Alex Rios ended the year with negative Wins Above Replacement, and the Royals are hoping to improve at both positions this year. Infante is back, and for almost the first time as a Royal, is healthy. Infante won’t walk much and probably won’t produce like he did for Detroit in 2013, but an improvement would help his cause and not make the Royals search for a second baseman come July. Rios is gone, and in his place is the platoon of Dyson and Orlando, who both had positive offensive WAR in 2015. I’m not so sure the Royals will replicate their offensive numbers of a year ago(and I could see a scenario where Moustakas and Morales specifically take a slight slide down)but overall this should be a team who produces enough offensively to help the starting pitching while also putting extra pressure on opposing teams late in the game, which has become their specialty. It’s a cliche saying, but for the Royals it really is all about the little things.

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Kansas City’s coaching staff returns for another season and that includes the skipper, Ned Yost. Over the years I have been less than enamored with Yost and in some ways that hasn’t changed. What has changed is that since late in the 2014 season, Yost has learned to trust his players and just allow them to go out and play ball. In a lot of ways this has lead to the Royals success and I give major props to Ned for staying out of his own way and only making major in-play decisions when necessary. He’s also put more stock in what his coaches pass along to him, which tends to lean toward a team with more on-field success. Yost will never be my favorite, but these ballplayers have embraced him and as long as they have his trust, his voice will be heard. Hard to argue with the direction he has steered this Royals team in the last two years, so I am hoping for more of the same this year.

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So what is on tap for the Royals this year, or at least in my estimation? I lean toward another successful year, one in which the chance of postseason play is a very high possibility. It’s hard in today’s baseball landscape to win back to back World Series’, but I don’t doubt this team, not in the least. This is a team that has had the percentages and odds against them for two seasons now and they keep coming out on top. I figure nothing much changes this year, in that regard. You can bet against the Royals and say the numbers are against them; I won’t be the one betting against Kansas City. No, I think more success is just around the corner, as the Royals plan their next big comeback. Kansas City, Kansas City here they come…again!

   

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Is Jose Martinez For Real?

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Right field for the Kansas City Royals has turned into an open audition this spring, as scheduled starter Jarrod Dyson is dealing with a strained oblique that will probably keep him sidelined until the middle of April at the earliest. About three weeks ago I discussed some of the possibilities the Royals would have in right field this season, and while Dyson and Orlando were expected to get the majority of playing time, there were also a few wild card candidates for Kansas City to keep an eye on. One of those players with an outside chance was 27 year old outfielder Jose Martinez, an outfielder who had been playing in an independent league in 2014. Martinez had a stellar 2015 season for the Royals Triple A team in Omaha, but before that he was a marginal prospect at best. So is Martinez for real? Let’s find out.

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Martinez was initially ticketed for Double A Northwest Arkansas for the 2015 campaign, but once Paulo Orlando made the big league roster, Martinez was elevated to Omaha instead. Martinez took advantage of the opportunity, as he was one of the best players in the Pacific Coast League last year, leading the minors in batting and OBP, with a .384 average and an OBP of .461, while also slugging .563. While those numbers are all impressive, when you dig deeper it paints an even better picture for Martinez. Jose seemed to master the strike zone last year, slapping together a 12.1% K rate and 13.9% walk rate. While the strikeout rate is fairly close to his entire minor league career, the walk rate took a steep incline up, as his previous high was 9% in 2014, a year in which he played in 66 games in High A ball. Throw in an insane BABIP of .434 and you have a guy who spent the summer just flat out raking and terrorizing PCL pitchers. There is a prevalent thought that his season was the outlier of his career, which is true, but there are reasons to think it might not be as far fetched as first thought.

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So how was this season not as flukish as it appears at first glance? For one, he has been a pretty good hitter off and on throughout his minor league career, at least when it comes to getting on base.  He hasn’t been as consistent on a year to year basis, but you can see where a guy like Martinez could be a serious prospect if he really pieced all his tools together. Second, he actually was a significant prospect at one time. Back in 2007, Martinez was the Chicago White Sox’s number 7 prospect before his age 18 season. Sometimes with age, a player picks up on parts of the game that a younger player might not be able to decipher during their younger years. There is no way to know for sure if something clicked with Martinez last year that will stick, but if he had hit earlier in his career the way he did in 2015, he would probably have already been at the least a big league backup right now.

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But there even more reasons to think Martinez might still be blossoming. For one, he has a very smooth, flat, line drive swing that makes for a very consistent hitter, which Martinez was in 2015. There is also the outside chance that his power has not even fully developed, as in the last ten years players between 6’6 and 6’8(Martinez is 6’7) had a combined ISO(isolated power mark) of .223. Martinez had his highest ISO last year (.179) and also put up career best power numbers and the most extra base hits of his career as well. It’s very possible that Martinez is just now reaching his power potential, and when you add in his ability to get on base, you have a player who could contribute in the majors. 2015 also saw Martinez have one of the best hard hit rates in the entire Royals organization, a sign that he wasn’t just getting lucky hits. In fact, Martinez is the perfect hitter for what the Royals like, a contact hitter who puts the ball in play at a very high rate.

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So is Martinez the real deal and someone who could see playing time for the Royals this year? I feel the Royals are taking a wait and see attitude with Martinez, wanting him to prove that his career season last year was not a fluke. ZiPS is projecting Martinez’s numbers to go down a tad but still very solid; .280/.330/.391 with a BABIP of .328.Obviously ZiPS is going off his past numbers a bit, so the numbers are bound to even out. I tend to think that while something like his BABIP might take a healthy plunge(.434 is just really insane) I can still see Martinez putting up above average numbers to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. While the chances of Martinez being a big league regular are probably a tad slim(and his age doesn’t help him in this regard), it is not inconceivable to imagine Martinez being a backup outfielder for Kansas City this year. With Dyson down for a few weeks and the uncertainty that goes along with Travis Snider and Brett Eibner, Martinez could very well slide into a big league job to start the 2015 campaign. Last year was all about the 29 year old rookie Paulo Orlando; could 2016 be all about 27 year old rookie Jose Martinez?

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Line Up the Royals

 

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One of the fun things about Spring Training is that anything is possible, and the opportunities are endless. In fact, every spring is spent with fans trying to predict how their favorite team will stack the lineup to start the season. In some ways it is a pointless activity but it’s always interesting to compare how you would position the starting lineup as opposed to the manager in the dugout. With that being said, here is how I would stack the starting nine for the Kansas City Royals to kick off their 2016 campaign.

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Batting leadoff would be left fielder Alex Gordon. Years ago Gordon was actually the regular at the top of the order but the Royals have spent the last few years trying to utilize some of his power and put him anywhere from fourth to eighth in the order. My reasoning for having Gordon leadoff is that he is one of the few Royals to put up a good walk rate, has decent speed and has proven success in this role. I really like Gordon’s ability to get on base and feel like it is best suited for this spot in the lineup. I know it is highly unlikely this will happen, but Gordon would be my choice.

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Batting in the two hole would be Lorenzo Cain. Last year Cain spent most of the year in the third spot in the order and turned in a career year that netted him a third place finish in the American League MVP vote. Now, it might seem odd to move Cain out of the third spot after the year he had, but I like having the Royals best two players hitting back to back in the order, as it allows Cain use his speed a bit more early in the game and makes it harder for pitchers to pitch around the Royals top of the order. I have no issue with Cain batting third, but I would like to see what he could do batting second.

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Hitting third in my Royals batting order would be Eric Hosmer. It’s long been said that you bat your best hitter in the third spot in the order and this could be the year that Hosmer takes that leap and puts up MVP caliber numbers. Hosmer put together a solid 2015 campaign and was an RBI machine in the postseason. If Gordon and Cain got on base consistently, Hosmer would get even more RBI opportunities and give the Royals more runs on the scoreboard. Batting Hosmer third could be a win-win situation.

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The “Cleanup Spot” could go to Kendrys Morales, the Royals RBI leader in 2015. The four hole has long been where you plug in your power guy and Morales is that for Kansas City. Even if we see a slight fall in extra base hits, Morales batting cleanup would give Morales even more of a chance to drive in runners than he did last year batting fifth.

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In the fifth spot would be Salvador Perez. Salvy isn’t the most patient hitter in baseball, but he did put up career high home run totals in 2015 and could see better pitches hitting behind Morales. Now that Perez is signed long-term in Kansas City, its time to give the man more rest and one has to wonder if his offensive numbers would hit an upward trajectory with more time to rest his weary bones.

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Despite coming off of a career season, I would bat Mike Moustakas sixth this season for the Royals. Moustakas looked like a changed man the first few months of the season, as he consistently was hitting the ball to the opposite field, forcing teams to scrap the shifts against him which were prevalent in 2014. The second half of the 2015 season saw him pull the ball at a greater rate, although still occasionally taking the ball the opposite way. So which player is Moose? I would like to say he would be more like the guy we saw in the first half of the season, but we will have to wait and see. If he continues to show that growth this season then he is more than capable of batting back near the top of the order. I would prefer to be convinced first before sliding him back.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
(Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY)

The seventh, eighth and ninth spots in the order are pretty interchangeable, but I would go with Omar Infante/Christian Colon batting seventh. Infante will probably win this job and if he does he is good to bat near the bottom of the order while still occasionally driving in some runs from this spot.

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Eighth would be Alcides Escobar, the man who Ned Yost will have lead-off this year. None of us can explain why it works, but batting Escobar at the top of the order, a guy who rarely walks and batted .257 last year, seemed to be a sparkplug for this Royals team during the playoffs. Honestly, Escobar just doesn’t get on base enough for my taste, which is why I would bat him near the bottom of the order. We know how this will play out, but Escobar’s bat seems to justify me batting him eighth in the Royals batting order.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
(Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY)

Batting at the bottom of the Royals lineup would be the Jarrod Dyson/Paulo Orlando platoon. I really like batting these two here for two reasons. First, neither will produce much offensively and will see the least amount of at bats in this spot. Second, if they do get on base, their speed could be utilized when the batting order flips back around to the team’s best hitters in Gordon and Cain and you could even see the hit and run used quite a bit. I actually think batting the right field duo here is the perfect spot for them.

Salvador Perez
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

So how do I think the line-up will actually shake out? Knowing manager Ned Yost and what he has said so far this spring, the line-up looks to be Escobar, Moustakas, Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Gordon, Perez, Infante/Colon, Dyson/Orlando. It’s not too far off from the batting order we saw in October last year and that seemed to work out okay. How would you stack the Royals? Who knows what would actually be the most productive order for the Royals, but it sure is fun moving it around to see what comes out of it.

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