The Royals need to make changes…now

Here we are, almost halfway through June and the Kansas City Royals are once again one of the worst teams in baseball. They are 20-39 as of June 12, last in the American League Central and tied with the Oakland A’s for the worst winning percentage in the American League. So what has the Kansas City front office done?

Nothing.

Sure, they fired hitting coach Terry Bradshaw back on May 16 and since then the offense has shown improvement. The Royals needed to make a change and it was obvious after 4+ years that Bradshaw wasn’t the solution. But if you have followed the Royals in any manner then you know that the pitching is a major concern and an area where a lot of young arms need the proper guidance to develop into not only major league starters but consistent major league arms. In fact the numbers tell a very sobering story about Kansas City’s pitching:

One stat in this column…

Seven Royals pitchers have arrived from Omaha at some point during this season.

First outing after the call-up: 0.46 ERA (1 ER in 19.2 IP)
Second outing: 3.44 ERA (7 ER in 18/1 IP)
Third outing and beyond: 5.71 ERA (33 ER in 52 IP)
— Sam McDowell (@SamMcDowell11) June 9, 2022

The YouTube broadcast is not holding back pic.twitter.com/reW4r7I49g
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) June 8, 2022

Relief Pitcher ERA 2022 Season

1. Astros – 2.66
2. Tigers – 2.83
3. Rays – 2.92
4. Yankees – 3.08
5. Guardians – 3.09
—
26. Nationals – 4.49
27. D-Backs – 4.58
28. Royals – 4.81
29. Reds – 4.91
30 Rockies – 5.21#LevelUp | #Rockies
— Inside Edge (@IE_MLB) June 7, 2022

This is just a taste. Royals starters have 1.1 fWAR this season, which is last in the American League and next to last to the Washington Nationals in baseball. Kansas City relievers have 0.1 fWAR, good enough to place them next to last in the league. And there is more:

Royals preach first pitch strike (supposedly)

Since 2007 – 29th in MLB
Since 2013 – 25th in MLB
Since 2018 – 29th in MLB

Dave Eiland’s last year in 2017 they were 5th best in MLB. They hired Cal Eldred:

2018 – 19th
2019 – 22nd
2020 – 27th
2021 – 30th
2022 – 30th

Hmmmm 🤔
— Jason Anderson (@J810Anderson) June 7, 2022

The Royals pitching staff is on pace to be one of the worst in MLB history.

ERA- compares ERAs to the league average ERA in their respective seasons. So 100 is average. 99 is 1% BETTER than avg.

KC’s team ERA- is 134. That is THE WORST team ERA- in any season since 1954.
— Royals Farm Report (@RoyalsFarm) June 4, 2022

All this and the Royals refuse to fire their pitching coach, Cal Eldred. The Cal Eldred that was hired to be Kansas City’s pitching coach before the 2018 season and the team’s pitching has never gotten better. The Cal Eldred that was never a pitching coach in any manner before the Royals hired him. The Cal Eldred that us Royals fans have been crying for to be fired now for almost a year:

At this point I don't even need to advocate for Cal Eldred to lose his job. It's a fait accompli. But the Royals should stop delaying the inevitable and get it over with.
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) July 1, 2021

Want more proof? Here is a GREAT ARTICLE from Max Rieper over at Royals Review that sums up why Cal should have been fired long ago. I could keep going with more and more proof but at this point you get it. In fact, the Royals think nothing is wrong. Dayton Moore even took a lot of the blame for Eldred’s ineptitude:

Dayton Moore took the blame for the struggles of the pitching staff.

“If you’re going to blame Cal Eldred for Bubic & Singer, you better give him praise for Daniel Lynch.” #Royals
— Josh Vernier (@JoshVernier610) May 16, 2022

This would be a good time to point out that since Moore said this, Daniel Lynch has struggled as well and has been wildly inconsistent. The Royals stockpiled all these young arms (especially from the 2018 draft) and they aren’t growing because the front office believes that THEIR way is the right way, the best way.

They all need to go.

A storm is brewing in Kansas City and Royals fans are mad. Any patience that has been built up over the years has faded and is left with a front office and coaching staff that has shown the inability to elevate this team to the next level. I mentioned the bumbling of the pitching, but there is also the fact that the Royals had one of the worst offenses in baseball last year and did nothing in the offseason to improve on it. It was like they expected rookies like Bobby Witt, Jr. and over 30 vets who struggled last year (like Carlos Santana) to improve and/or help the team score more runs.

Santana has been one of the worst offense players in baseball so far this year and rather than Kansas City address this issue, they have doubled down. Vinnie Pasquantino is a first base prospect down in AAA Omaha & has been tearing it up over the last month or so. It would make sense to call him up and help the struggling offense, right? Nope.

“Vinnie, I was looking at this the other day, he just hit the 150 at-bat mark in Triple-A. He had 200 at-bats in Double-A.
So when you look at upper level at-bats, he’s had 350 upper level at-bats. That’s not even a season’s worth, over two levels. You’d like to get, really, a full season at the highest level. That’s not set in stone, but generally you’d like to see 500, 550 plate appearances at the highest level.”

That would be fine, but it’s not what the Royals have done in the past. Both Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez were recalled before that 500 plate appearance limit plus Dayton Moore has talked about in the past that they would recall players “when they are ready”. Considering how Pasquantino has hit, I don’t see how he is “not ready”.

There is also this quote from GM JJ Picollo:

“We just have to keep in mind, we’ve done this for a long time, young players can come up and certainly help an offense,” he said. “But it’s really hard to expect a young player to come up and carry an offense. We don’t want them to feel like they have to carry an offense.”

This would be easier to believe if the Royals weren’t already regularly batting rookies Witt, Jr. and MJ Melendez between the 3rd and 5th spots in the order. These are the type of fairly regular comments we get from both Picollo and Moore that make me question the front office because you wonder whether they actually believe these false quotes or are knowingly feeding us a line of bull.

Between the evaluation of the coaching staff, the offense and then their reluctance to recall Pasquantinto it probably has most fans questioning the validity of both Moore and Picollo. Moore was hired in June 2006 and has now been in the organization for 16 years. In that span of time, the Royals have only had three winning seasons. Let me repeat that: out of 16 seasons, Kansas City has had only 3 seasons with a record over .500.

Pardon my french here, but only THREE FUCKING SEASONS!

It has been seven seasons since the Royals won the World Series and this is season five of the “rebuild” (yes, I know Moore won’t admit it is a rebuild but a large core of the World Series team left after the 2017 season. It’s a rebuild.) and not once have we seen a winning season from Kansas City. Moore’s first “rebuild” took seven seasons before we saw a winning season followed by back to back appearances in the World Series.

Like many fans, after the championship win, I gave Dayton and company a pass. While I didn’t agree with many of his practices, it was hard to argue with the end results. But we are on season seven with no winning seasons and another not even looming on the horizon. If we are being honest here, it doesn’t take seven years for a rebuild, any rebuild.

The front office needs to go.

Recently it has felt like Dayton and company felt like the World Series appearances proved that their way was a winning formula and that we should trust their process (yes, I went there). But all it feels like is a bunch of guys grasping at straws and not getting any results from their way of running a baseball team.

We as fans have been very patient with both Dayton & JJ but at this point our patience has run out and it doesn’t appear as if the guys running this team have any answers. Matthew LaMar has been killing it lately at Royals Review, with this piece on why the team needs new leadership and this one on how management appears okay with them being losers. These are all thoughts I have had for almost two months now and when these articles started popping up I felt better about my assessment of this organization.

What about manager Mike Matheny? To be honest, I’ve never liked the hiring. It felt too soon after his firing from St. Louis (15 months), I had concerns about many of the issues he had while managing there and honestly, I felt like Royals current bench coach Pedro Grifol was the better choice. But while researching for this piece, I ran across this that I wrote about Moore’s reasoning for hiring Matheny, which I believe to be based on Matheny’s faith:

Moore has made his decision and I will call it now: this move will be the beginning of the end for Dayton. Over the last couple years, he has made some questionable moves and we’ve seen his decision making become more and more questionable. It used to just be free agent signings or trades but now it has started to seep over into whether his personal belief system is on a higher plain than winning. Need more proof? Look no more than his defending of Luke Heimlich. Moore’s want to give people a second chance almost gave the organization a giant stain that would have been hard to recover from. It is obvious what his mission is at this point and on a daily basis I question more and more whether or not that goal is winning. The hiring of Matheny could very well be his eventual downfall, especially with new ownership getting ready to move in.

While Matheny has been a little bit better than expected, it still doesn’t feel like he is the right guy for the job and more and more I just don’t feel like he is a good manager. He makes questionable strategic moves with the bullpen, still appears to show favoritism for veterans when it comes to his lineup and his intense attitude has rubbed some of the veterans the wrong way, as David Lesky talked about last week.

There were even moments in the last week that appeared to many as Matheny losing his team, as players appeared despondent and almost just giving up. While the Royals have posted some victories since then, this doesn’t feel like a manager who can turn around this ship. Not only is he not been given the pieces to turn things around, he also doesn’t appear to have any answers. This is a former player who was handed a playoff team in St. Louis and when that team started to dismantle he had no big changes in his playbook to turn around the losing.

Matheny needs to go.

It might seem extreme to some, but this organization needs a house cleaning. They’ve been given more than enough time to get the Royals back to a winning record and they aren’t even close. I think they have done a good job with the development programs going on in the minor leagues for both the hitting and pitching, but none of that matters if changes aren’t made on the coaching staff. Throw in a front office who still thinks it’s 2006 and you have a recipe for players to never reach their full potential in Kansas City.

To really give you an idea of how bad this is, I have been a die-hard Royals fan since 1984 and have watched this team win or lose for years. But I can’t stomach this. It’s very apparent changes need to be made and management is doing nothing while ownership apparently is either okay with this or doesn’t know any better. I haven’t watched a game in three weeks and have zero desire to watch a game. I hate what they are doing to this team and in no way will support what is going on.

I am a baseball fan so there is no “wait for the Chiefs season” or “there are other sports to watch”. I breath and eat baseball all year, so this has been awful for me. I’ve gone to one game this year but I’m not really for sure I’ll go to another. We should be able to get the Bally app soon but as of right now I have no reason to spend money on it. If this organization can’t see there is a problem with this, then they are blind.

What they are telling you, the fan, is “hey, we don’t care whether you pay attention to our team or spend money with us. We believe our way is the only way and dammit we aren’t going to change for anyone”. that is a frightening message to send when you have had only three winning seasons over 16 years.

Ownership has talked a lot recently about building a new stadium in downtown Kansas City and some are wanting it and others (like myself) want nothing to do with it. There is a belief that if they move downtown, one of the factors will be more people coming to games because of accessibility. The problem they aren’t seeing is that if your baseball team continues to lose, fans aren’t going to come to the games. It’s not an issue of having an old stadium or being downtown; the issue is that the Royals are a bad baseball team and fans are tired of losing. 2014 and 2015 proved that the cure-all for filling the stadium is winning baseball games. Simple as that.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results. The Royals are testing that theory while running fans off in the process. I hope John Sherman is listening. You want a full stadium and possible October baseball? Clean house. If not, don’t expect any changes in the near future.

June 12, 2022 0

Small Sample Size: My 2020 Year End Awards

If we are being honest, I’m not even sure where to start. 2020 has been such a messed up year and baseball isn’t excused from all the craziness. Whether it’s the shortened season, the expanded playoffs, or the universal DH, baseball looked way different than what we are used to this past calendar year.

With that said, some things were normal. There was still a World Series winner. There was also lots of bickering between the new & old school evaluations of the game. But where we are concerned today, awards were still voted on by the BBWAA and by a group I am part of, the IBWAA.

Now, the IBWAA has new ownership & has created a new atmosphere for baseball writers on the web, but voting felt at first like normal. That is if you count evaluating 60 games “normal”.

That was the strange part: trying to pick winners in the smallest of sample sizes. While there were some obvious choices, others felt a little more vague. While I normally enjoy going through & picking my winners, this year felt more like a chore than ever before. Parameters were moved & choices all the way around were chosen on a smaller scale.

But I did pick winners and it is time now to unveil them. Before I do, you can always go back & check out my previous IBWAA voting record: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015. With that out of the way, let’s start handing out awards.

American League Rookie of the Year: Kyle Lewis, Seattle

If there was an obvious choice for an award this year, Kyle Lewis for AL Rookie of the Year might be it. Lewis went out and made a name for himself in the shortened campaign, leading rookies in fWAR (tied with Ke-Bryan Hayes of Pittsburgh), home runs (tied with Luis Robert of Chicago), runs, OBP and total bases.

He also showed some defensive prowess and could be the start of a fun, young outfield in Seattle. While Luis Robert, Cristian Javier and Brady Singer all had great rookie campaigns, it felt obvious that Lewis was head and shoulders above the rest in the American League this season.

My Top 3: 1. Lewis 2. Robert 3. Singer

IBWAA Winner: Kyle Lewis

BBWAA Winner: Kyle Lewis

National League Rookie of the Year: Devin Williams, Milwaukee

While the American League winner felt simple, the National League was a bit tougher to pick. So many worthy candidates littered the Senior Circuit and with the 60 game season, it was a bit harder to weed out one single candidate.

But once you saw Devin Williams’ numbers, it was hard to argue with: 1.4 fWAR, 0.33 ERA, 53% K rate, 0.63 WHIP and 0.86 FIP. Williams allowed one earned run over 27 innings, which included a stretch of 24 2/3 scoreless innings, while allowing just eight hits all season. His changeup was a deal breaker in 2020 and led to a lot of love from Pitching Ninja himself:

Devin Williams: The Best Changeup on the Planet.

[All from the 8th inning] pic.twitter.com/Tdguj3GWez
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 6, 2020

So while a number of rookies had good seasons in the NL this past season, none were as dominant as Devin Williams. In fact one would think this is just the beginning for this 26 year old reliever.

My Top 3: 1. Williams 2. Ke’Bryan Hayes 3. Alec Bohm

IBWAA Winner: Jake Cronenworth

BBWAA Winner: Devin Williams

American League Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay

Even before Cash led the Rays to the World Series, it was apparent that he would be the frontrunner for the AL Manager of the Year. Cash ran a squad that won the American League East for the first time since 1990 and squirmed through an injured list that felt insurmountable. Add in the fact they play in one of the strongest divisions in the game, and it felt like a great time to bestow Cash with this honor.

The Rays had one of the best pitching staffs in the game and was able to use that to hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays in their division. He guided the team through the new playoff format, as the team held off the Yankees and the Astros. Even in the World Series, the Rays held their own and a big part of that was Cash’s managing skills.

I know some will still question taking Blake Snell out in Game 6 of the World Series, but one move doesn’t tarnish all the other work Cash did this past season. While that argument will rage on, there is no need to question the validity of Cash’s work in this organization.

My Top 3: 1. Cash 2. Bob Melvin 3. Sandy Alomar, Jr.

IBWAA Winner: Kevin Cash

BBWAA Winner: Kevin Cash

National League Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker, Atlanta

I’m going to come right out and take some responsibility: I completely forgot about Don Mattingly when I was working on my votes. I don’t know if I was breezing through everything, or just wasn’t paying close attention, but Mattingly didn’t even cross my mind during this process.

Now, if I had thought of him, he definitely would have been in my top three and possibly even my winner. He did a great job with a young Marlins club and deserves all the accolades he has been receiving this season. I remembered him about three days after I voted and instantly kicked myself for it. My bad.

This is not to say Brian Snitker isn’t worthy. Snitker led the Braves to their third straight National League East Division title, in a division that is loaded with talent. The Braves got all the way to the NLCS before being ousted by the eventual champs, the Dodgers.

While Atlanta was an early favorite in the East, they did hit a few bumps in the road that Snitker had to guide them through. A good chunk of the season their rotation was being pieced together with any healthy arms they could find and they dealt with a number of injuries during the campaign, including star infielder Ozzie Albies. It wasn’t a smooth ride for the Braves and Snitker was able to steer the way.

So once again, sorry Donnie. I take the blame. Luckily, you still have some hardware to soothe over any hard feelings. Congrats on a job well done.

My Top 3: 1. Snitker 2. Ross 3. Tingler

IBWAA Winner: Don Mattingly

BBWAA Winner: Don Mattingly

American League Cy Young Award: Shane Bieber, Cleveland

I should have known on Opening Day that Shane Bieber would be the runaway winner of the AL Cy Young Award. Back on July 24th, Bieber kicked off the 2020 season against my Kansas City Royals and proceeded to dominate. Bieber pitched six scoreless innings, striking out 14 Royals, giving up four hits while walking one. It was a performance that truly set the tone for the rest of Bieber’s award winning season.

Over 12 games, Bieber would lead the American League in ERA, strike outs, ERA+, FIP, Hits per 9 & strike outs per 9. Yes, it was only 12 games and only covered 77 1/3 innings, but it felt like Bieber punched the gas the entire time and never let off. It would have been interesting to see how it would have unfolded if he had an entire season under his belt. Would he have been able to keep this pace up? Would he have ran into a large rough patch? Or would he be a model of consistency and continue to rack up career high numbers?

Unfortunately, we won’t know for sure but might get a window into his development in 2021. This is definitely a season of growth and maturity and it does feel like Bieber has officially put himself into the discussion of top pitchers in the game today. The question will be how much of his dominance will we see next season? While on one hand I can’t wait to find out; on the other, as a Royals fan and having Cleveland in the same division, it would be nice if Kansas City missed him a lot whenever facing the Indians next year. Otherwise, they might be chalking up those games to Cleveland before the game even starts.

My Top 3: 1. Bieber 2. Hyun Jin Ryu 3. Liam Hendriks

IBWAA Winner: Shane Bieber

BBWAA Winner: Shane Bieber

National League Cy Young Award: Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati

There might be no better timing in baseball than a player having a career year right as he is heading toward free agency. This normally means a big contract with a lot of zeros and a lot of years on it. If history holds true, that is what Trevor Bauer did in 2020, claiming his first Cy Young Award.

Bauer was a beast in 2020, leading the NL in ERA, complete games, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP and Hits per 9. In just 73 innings, Bauer posted 2.7 bWAR and set career highs in LOB%, K% and held the lowest BB% and Hard Hit % of his career. In his age 29 season, Bauer showed that he is a top pitcher in this game.

Moving forward, it will be interesting to see how his run in free agency goes. Trevor has always talked about sticking to signing one year deals, so he can control his situation. Here is Bauer to explain his reasoning more:

“I want to be able to be happy playing the game that I love. So I want to end up in situations that make me happy and make me fulfilled. That can be situations like the Reds have, where there’s just a really great group of people that just make me fulfilled as a person,” said Bauer.

“That can be situations like jumping into a team that’s going to go on a playoff run and hopefully win a World Series. That can be a team that would let me pitch every 4th day or treats me with respect in a way that no other team has. Or whatever the case is – there’s certain things that are more important to me than money. And I want to be able to control where I play and when and the situations I’m in so that as I change too, and things become more important to me, or less important to me as I evolve that I can tailor fit my situation to reflect that.”

“I want to be on a contender every year because I love competing at the highest level and the highest level is the World Series,” he said. “So I want to have a chance to go to the World Series every single year. And the way baseball is currently structured, there’s not many teams that go into spring training trying to win the World Series that year.”

So does Bauer stay true to his word and sign a one year deal this offseason? Or does he go against that, realizing he can strike while the iron is hot and receive a long-term deal from a team? This will definitely be an interesting story to follow during the offseason.

My Top 3: 1. Bauer 2. Jacob deGrom 3. Yu Darvish

IBWAA Winner: Trevor Bauer

BBWAA Winner: Trevor Bauer

American League MVP: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland

While names like Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson flooded the early discussion for AL MVP, Jose Ramirez sneaked up over the last month or so and made his argument to be at the top of the food chain in the AL.

In fact, from August 24 on, Ramirez lit up pitchers to a tune of .342/.430/.757 with 12 home runs, 28 RBIs, 22 extra base hits and a WPA of 1.579. It felt very obvious that Ramirez helped lead the charge for Cleveland as they made their case to reach the playoffs.

While he only lead the league in runs scored, he did put up a total line of .292/.386/.607 with an OPS+ of 163 and 133 total bases, just 98 less than 2019 in 71 less games. His 3.4 fWAR lead the American League, with teammate Shane Bieber close behind at 3.2. Ramirez was also 2nd in wOBA at .415, behind only DJ LeMahieau.

While players like Abreu, Anderson or LeMahieau are all worthy of this honor, to me Ramirez felt like the true winner and someone who felt very valuable when it comes to his team’s success.

My Top 3: 1. Ramirez 2. Bieber 3. Abreu

IBWAA Winner: Jose Abreu

BBWAA Winner: Jose Abreu

National League MVP: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta

If there was a player this season that really defined the battle between baseball and COVID-19, it would be Freddie Freeman of the Braves. Freeman actually tested positive for coronavirus back at the beginning of Summer Camp and at one point even had a 104. 5 degree fever. It only feels appropriate that he would be the NL MVP in this shortened season.

Freeman pushed himself to an elite level this year, leading the league in runs, doubles, WPA and fWAR. If that wasn’t enough, he put up a slash line of .341/.462/.640 with 13 home runs, 53 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 186. It’s easy to see why he appeared to be the cream of the NL, but he was able to add more.

Freeman also led the league in line drive % (31.1), 8th in hard hit rate (42.9%), 7th lowest K % (14.1), 5th best walk % (17.2), 2nd in OPS (1.102), 6th in ISO, 7th in BABIP and 2nd in wOBA. While not always in the top five, it’s impressive that Freeman was able to finish in the top 10 of a variety of offensive statistics that shows off his all around game.

While there are very good arguments for both Fernando Tatis, Jr, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto, no one has the numbers all across the board the way Freeman does. Adding in his battle with COVID and the ability to lead his team deep into the playoffs, it only makes sense to name Freddie Freeman National League MVP.

My Top 3: 1. Freeman 2. Tatis, Jr 3. Betts

IBWAA Winner: Freddie Freeman

BBWAA Winner: Freddie Freeman

So while the winners for these awards were worthy of being honored, I can honestly say I hope we never have to make judgements based off of a 60 game season. I’ve been voting for these awards for a number of years now and this felt like the hardest year to truly make a decision on who performed better in a shorter period of time.

While some might say they feel like a regular baseball season is too long, what it allows you to do is truly analyze what each player truly accomplishes over a stretch of 162 games. Doing that in slightly over a third of that number makes it hard to truly trust a lot of decisions that are made.

That being said, let’s hope for a couple things. First, that we get a full season of baseball in 2021. Second, that everyone stays safe and healthy and don’t have their career’s sidetracked by this deadly virus. And finally, that we see more positive than negative for baseball over the next calendar year. Baseball saw a lot of bumps in the road this past year and it might get even bumpier leading up to the players and owners discussing a new CBA. Here’s to more good than selfish decisions being made to help further the game. I’ll get off my soapbox now and get ready for Spring Training.

November 14, 2020 0

The Season Where We Wait for Games to be Played

It feels weird to be sitting here in May with no baseball. No exhibition games, no random blowouts, no rainouts to be made up at a later date. Normally this time of year we are already digesting the numbers, figuring out who is for real and who is a fluke while going through the daily grind of following our team. Normally we are enjoying the game that never really gets tired for us as fans.

Instead, we sit here with what feels like an extended offseason, but with no roster moves. We wait to hear on just when we might have baseball again, only to be disappointed to find out nothing definite is on the horizon (Thanks, Trevor Plouffe). It truly is the unknown that will drive you crazy.

I don’t know about you guys, but when the world feels a bit heavy and I need to get away, I always have baseball to lean on. Whether you are watching a game, reading a box score or sifting through Baseball Reference, baseball is that “happy place” I can always dive into and feel better. But what happens when the game has been paused?

There are no numbers to crunch. No players to watch develop. No veterans to appreciate while you can. Yes, we are getting classic games to go back and watch and trust me, I have. I still get the goosebumps watching the 2014 Wild Card Game between the Royals and A’s and probably always will. But it doesn’t quite fit with what is going on right now.

You see, the problem isn’t only that games are not being played. It’s not only that most of us need some break from a news feed that is constantly regurgitating unsettling statistics about this pandemic that reaches that part of your insides that want the best for your fellow humans (sorry, too close to home?). No, the bigger issue is that this game we love, the one that most of us have adored since we were children, is laying a big goose egg and there is not a game in sight to help us avoid a reality where nothing but bad news fills the air.

Go ahead and take your pick on what baseball news you find the most disturbing. How about the purging of minor league teams? Ever since the idea was floated out, it has felt like an awful choice. This outbreak appears to be the final nail in the coffin for some of these teams and there is no good coming from less baseball, even at a lower level.

How about the cheating scandal within the game of baseball? The Astros have been punished and a few coaches careers have taken a slight detour but it felt like Boston received a slight slap on the wrist and this shutdown has allowed baseball to sweep all the ugly bits under the rug. I’m not saying we should continue to dwell on this issue until the end of time, but it also seems as if baseball got their ‘Get out of Jail Free’ card and are running with it.

There was even talk of adding MORE teams to the playoffs, ruining what would appear to be a playoff system that has really flourished over the last few years. I have yet to see a reasonable explanation for why this would be a good plan and hope if anything that with everything else going on that this idea is now swimming with the fishes.

All this without even mentioning how baseball can come back while keeping everyone safe, and I do mean everyone. This issue was addressed earlier today by Nationals pitcher Sean Doolittle:

Bear with me, but it feels like we've zoomed past the most important aspect of any MLB restart plan: health protections for players, families, staff, stadium workers and the workforce it would require to resume a season. Here are some things I'll be looking for in the proposal…

— Obi-Sean Kenobi Doolittle (@whatwouldDOOdo) May 11, 2020

This is a long thread, but there are some very important issues that hopefully are being discussed as we speak. It’s not just the players whose safety we have to look out for as there are also staff members, coaches, umpires, vendors, security, grounds crews, etc..you get the picture. You would need a multitude of tests and I seriously hope MLB would be able to receive all that is needed.

This isn’t even mentioning the news that came out on Monday about a proposal that owners have put together to present to the player’s union. In fact one tidbit appears to be an instant sticking point:

MLB revenue-sharing plan is a nonstarter for the players’ association. Union head Tony Clark: “A system that restricts player pay based on revenues is a salary cap, period.” Story with @EvanDrellich: https://t.co/4TXrKHAMhF

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 11, 2020

Yes, things don’t look good. I haven’t even mentioned the MLB Draft for this year and how it could end up only going five rounds. I honestly don’t know what good actually comes from all this. I really don’t. It feels like baseball needs an overhaul and the people in charge appear to be seeing things from a very small ($$$) perspective. It truly is a sad state of affairs.

Normally, when the games infrastructure is failing, I can always digest games to take my mind off of negligence of the business side of the game. Unfortunately, there are no games to distract me. Sure, I’ve taken in some KBO games and enjoy the action. But it doesn’t have the same feel that I am looking for.

Maybe this is what baseball needs. Maybe MLB needs all this chaos to go on to fix the problems that have been piling up. It has felt the last few years that the players and owners were on a collision course and the result would be changes that are needed for everyone involved.

Maybe things have to be torn down so they can be built back up again. It’s not like the game is that far away from being everything we really wish it was. There will always be flaws, ugly habits in the game that linger for years. But they always appear to right the ship.

That could be the saving grace of this pandemic. Yes, we have to suffer through a (mostly) lost season. But in the end, some areas of concern could be fixed. That is what baseball needs. I just hope cooler heads prevail.

Strap yourself in. This ride is going to get bumpy.

May 12, 2020 0

Better Late Than Never: My 2019 Year End Awards

A few weeks ago, the BBWAA announced their year end award winners, mostly with approval amongst the baseball community. That also means that a group that I am a part of, the IBWAA, announced their winners as well. Per usual, I took part in the voting for all of the awards and normally I go through my picks in this space, breaking down my choices and why it went the way it did.

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find the time to write about my votes, so instead you will get a condensed version this year. Before we get started, here are my winners from 2018. You will notice a big difference in articles this year, but I wanted to at least get my votes out there and see how close I was to the mass majority. As always, it is a true honor to have this opportunity to vote and I always vote with the utmost respect. With that being said, here are my picks to win awards in 2019:

American League MVP: Mike Trout

My Top 3: 1-Trout, 2-Bregman, 3-Alvarez

IBWAA Winner: Mike Trout

BBWAA Winner: Mike Trout

National League MVP: Christian Yelich

My Top 3: 1-Yelich, 2-Bellinger, 3-Rendon

IBWAA Winner: Cody Bellinger

BBWAA Winner: Cody Bellinger

American League Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole

My Top 3: 1-Cole, 2-Verlander, 3-Clevinger

IBWAA Winner: Justin Verlander

BBWAA Winner: Justin Verlander

National League Cy Young Award: Jacob deGrom

My Top 3: 1-deGrom, 2-Scherzer, 3-Ryu

IBWAA Winner: Jacob deGrom

BBWAA Winner: Jacob deGrom

American League Rookie of the Year: Yordan Alvarez

My Top 3: 1-Alvarez, 2-Biggio, 3-Anderson

IBWAA Winner: Yordan Alvarez

BBWAA Winner: Yordan Alvarez

National League Rookie of the Year: Pete Alonso

My Top 3: 1-Alonso, 2-Tatis, Jr., 3-Soroka

IBWAA Winner: Pete Alonso

BBWAA Winner: Pete Alonso

American League Manager of the Year: Aaron Boone

My Top 3: 1-Boone, 2-Baldelli, 3-Cash

IBWAA Winner: Rocco Baldelli

BBWAA Winner: Rocco Baldelli

National League Manager of the Year: Mike Shildt

My Top 3: 1-Shildt, 2-Martinez, 3-Counsell

IBWAA Winner: Brian Snitker

BBWAA Winner: Mike Shildt

American League Reliever of the Year: Liam Hendriks

My Top 3: 1-Hendriks, 2-Rogers, 3-Chapman

IBWAA Winner: Liam Hendriks

BBWAA Winner: Aroldis Chapman

National League Reliever of the Year: Kirby Yates

My Top 3: 1-Yates, 2-Hader, 3-Lugo

IBWAA Winner: Kirby Yates

BBWAA Winner: Josh Hader

So there you have it, another season officially wraps up as we reward those that reached the highest of achievements. It is a great honor that I get to vote every year like this and I can only hope I do a respectable part to show the value of an organization like the IBWAA. This is a game we all love and while we might squabble here and there on numbers, it really comes down to what you value. I can only hope 2020 brings us just as many highly contested winners. Here’s to baseball being back sooner rather than later.

December 3, 2019 1

The Times They Are A-Changin’

I really thought I wasn’t going to write again until September at the earliest.

It was really going to take something big to force me to write.

David Glass selling the Kansas City Royals falls into the ‘big’ category.

Also, being on vacation makes it easier.

And yet here we are.

KC #Royals owner David Glass has agreed to a deal for $1 billion with KC businessman John Sherman, a Cleveland #Indians minority owner, which will become official in November when ratified by the #MLB owners.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) August 30, 2019

Here’s the thing: I wrote a whole big article about Sherman buying the Royals. 1500 words were spilled, easily one of the longest articles I have written in a long time. But then the auto-save feature here shit the bed.

All of it was gone. All but 172 words. I haven’t felt this kind of frustration in quite awhile. It was soul crushing for someone who hadn’t written in two months.

So you won’t get my in-depth look at the move. I just don’t have the energy or time to re-write my thoughts. It was a good article too. It made me feel better about the fact I hardly write anymore. I can still do this, which I was starting to question.

So instead, here is the abbreviated version: I like the move. Sherman seems like a good fit, even if it feels almost too good. Yes, that is probably the worry of a Royals fan from before 2014. Trust me, it never completely goes away.

Back to Sherman. The move feels as good as we could expect. Honestly, I feel better about the new ownership than I would have if Dan Glass took over for his dad. While I’m thankful for the Glass’ keeping the team in Kansas City and making moves to put together a championship team, even this year ‘Good ol’ Dave’ couldn’t bear to eat money in a move that would have helped the future of the organization.

It always felt like Glass was more concerned about his bottom line than the product that was presented on the field. It’s unfortunate, but when I can point to numerous times he wouldn’t eat money in a trade (and I covered all this in the lost article. Zobrist, Cueto, Soria, and even a possible Kennedy trade just a month ago) than there is proof that Glass never believed in the saying ‘to make money in baseball, you have to spend money’. Hopefully that is not lost on the new ownership.

What does this mean for GM Dayton Moore or Manager Ned Yost? There is no way to know for sure, but a new owner might want his own people. Or he might want to stay with the old guard that went to back to back World Series’ and won a world championship. All we know for sure is that once we hit November and the sale officially goes through, it could turn out to be a wild winter. You can’t run from it, changes are comin’.

So that is the short version of what I wrote. Since we are only at 500 words, lets run through a few things since I haven’t written in months. It’s been a long time since I wrote anything on this blog. In fact, it’s been so long that I look like this now:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is kc3-1.jpg — Credit: Hollywood Reporter

Okay, maybe I don’t look that old. But it feels like it. Also, that is Gandalf from the ‘Lord of the Rings’ movies. I’m not as cool as him. Or talented. I’m quite a bit shorter and not nearly as thin. What was I talking about again?

Oh yeah. I was going to bring up a few other items related to the Royals. Let’s start with Jorge Soler.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is kc4-1.jpg

Soler currently sits at 38 home runs (as of this writing), which ties him with the Royals single season record that Mike Moustakas set back in 2017. So once Soler hits #39, he will be the new Moose. Who was the new Balboni. Who was the new Mayberry.

The unfortunate part of all of this is that Kansas City is the only team to never have a 40-home run season from one of their hitters. Never. With Soler just two away, that record could go bye-bye as well. It’s amazing to think we are witnessing the greatest individual home run season in team history and it feels like a blip because balls are flying out of parks all across America at an alarming rate. And to think, just a couple seasons ago fans were ready to give up on Soler.

Looks like the Royals won this Wade Davis trade as well.

Since this whole article is about change, it’s nice to see the team go and finally embrace the young talent and give them an opportunity in what has otherwise been a lost season. It was depressing as hell to see the team trot out the likes of Wily Peralta, Billy Hamilton and Lucas Duda for as long as they did. I get what the front office was thinking but it also felt like a colossal waste of time.

Look, this is a team that needs to know what they have with some of their fringe talent. Guys like Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling just need the opportunity to go out and get some experience at the major league level. Whether they sink or swim is undetermined, but at least give them a fighting chance. Putting out replacement level veterans (at best) to fill holes until some one is “ready” is so 2018. We all predicted what Hamilton would do. Most knew Peralta was going to be a dumpster fire.

If I’m going to watch my team go out and lose 100 games, at least give me the decency of doing it with players that may or may not be a part of the future. Penciling Lucas Duda’s name into the lineup from the beginning should have been a no-go. Instead, we got to see 119 plate appearances from a guy who wasn’t a league average hitter a year ago when he was in Kansas City and was even worse this year.

I know, it sounds like I am dumping on the front office and to some degree I am. They wanted to put up the illusion of contending (or at least flirting with .500), thinking the vets would perform better than expected and then they could turn around and flip them at the trade deadline. Problem was, most of them (if not all) regressed. Homer Bailey was the one true find and his pull from the trade with Oakland wasn’t much.

The problem was that most of us as fans could tell it wasn’t working by mid-May at the latest. Instead of something being done soon after, we were forced to sit through two more months with these players that were just taking up space. I have no clue whether or not the Royals would have won a bunch more games if they would have sped up this process. For all we know, they would still be sitting with the same record they are at now, looking at another ‘Top 5′ draft pick. The point is that some of us would have preferred seeing the Phillips’ and Starling’s and Lovelady’s more than we have. Let the kids play, as they say.

Whew. Sorry about that. I’ve had months of that built up. Just needed to vent.

So a month is left in the season. I want to see if these kids will flourish. Last year at this time was a fun time to watch Royals baseball, as they looked like a spry team looking to knock off some Goliath’s. That might not happen this year but a good ending to the season could be just the positive this team needs.

Maybe Bubba will start knocking the baseball around and Jorge Lopez will look like a competent reliever. Maybe Brett Phillips will make us forget about Moose and Richard Lovelady will look like the dominant reliever he was in the minors. Or we can just relish in the fact that we aren’t the Tigers. I’m game for that.

Also, maybe Dish Network and Fox Sports can settle their differences here soon. Sean would like to watch his Royals again before the season is over. Please?

September 1, 2019 0

A Bargain For Relief

Editors note: This originally was on Royals Review a week ago, so obviously a few of the names mentioned have signed with teams since then.

On Thursday, one of the bigger reliever names out on the free agent market, David Robertson, agreed to a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. With the Robertson signing, it would appear the rest of the relief pitchers available this winter might start following suit and see a bit of movement in what has been a pretty tepid Hot Stove this winter.

That would mean names like Craig Kimbrel and Zach Britton could start falling off the board. Even a former Royal, Kelvin Herrera could find a home and get ready for the upcoming season. These are all great relievers and guys that any team would love at their disposal in the late innings with the game on the line. But these are also all names that won’t be coming to Kansas City.

Because while the Royals are in search of help in their bullpen, the help they are looking for is, well, could we say, [ahem] cheaper. In fact, Jeffrey Flanagan wrote about what GM Dayton Moore is looking for to bolster the pen this offseason:

Typically, some bullpen arms hold out through January in hopes of landing $5 million or $6 million deals. When there are no takers, that’s when the bargains come. Expect Moore to land a veteran arm or two in the $2 million range to bolster a bullpen that clearly was the weakest link on the 2018 team.

So if Dayton will be roaming the bargain bin over the next couple of months, who should he be keeping tabs on? While this is never a perfect science, there are a few lesser known names on the market that could be had to fill out the rest of the Royals bullpen.

Blake Parker

Parker would appear to be a great candidate for a bounce-back season in 2019. Parker saw a slight increase across the board when it comes to HR per 9, hard hit rate and walk rate, but there were a few hints that a turn around is possible. Parker saw an increase in his BABIP, which at times can be attributed to a bit of luck and he also appeared to strand runners at a higher rate.

Maybe most intriguing is a pitch he started utilizing more near the end of the season. Here is former Angels bullpen coach Scott Radinsky talking about some of those results:

“He started to utilize his breaking ball a little more toward the end of the year, and a lot of that had to do with data. His breaking ball was just as good to righties and lefties, so we told him, ‘Don’t be afraid to use it.’ Blake has been around the league for a bit, so guys knew it was going to be either fastball or split. When he started throwing that breaking ball in there — and not just in early counts, but late counts as well — he froze a lot of batters.”

Parker is a durable veteran that could be a good fit on a team like the Royals, looking for some value at a cheaper price.

Credit: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press

Cory Gearrin

Gearrin is another reliever who saw his numbers go up where they shouldn’t but not enough to scare teams away. While pitching for three teams last year (Giants, Rangers and A’s), Gearrin put together a pretty pedestrian season that at the least saw his walk rate improve.

His velocity appears to be on par with previous years and the possibility of a new, steady home with some stellar defense might be a good fit. For Gearrin, his 2018 might have been just a case of too many environments in a short amount of time.

Alex Wilson

Wilson is a familiar name for some Royals fans, as he has been toiling in Detroit since 2015. Wilson is a bit different than some of the other names on this list, as he actually improved a lot of his numbers this past season and has proven to be a durable and reliable arm out of the pen. A great description of Wilson was given a few weeks back by David Laurila over at Fangraphs, who writes a weekly ‘Sunday Notes’ column that I try to never miss:

He’s not one of bigger names available, but Alex Wilson will almost assuredly add value to one of the 30 MLB teams next season. The reliable reliever was non-tendered by the Detroit Tigers this past week, despite a track record of dependability and durability. In four seasons with the AL Central club, Wilson averaged 62 appearances annually and had a more-than-respectable 3.20 ERA. Heading into his age-32 campaign, the Hurricane, West Virginia product represents a cost-effective option for teams in want of a no-frills bullpen depth.

If Moore is looking for a reliable, veteran piece for the Royals pen, he could do a lot worse than Wilson.

Tyler Clippard

Clippard will be entering his age 34 season in 2019 and is a reliever who has pretty much done everything out of the pen throughout his career. Clippard is coming off of a solid campaign where he tossed 68.2 innings for Toronto, posting a 3.67 ERA and 0.5 fWAR.

In fact, it’s a bit surprising Clippard hasn’t seen more action this winter. 2018 saw him raise his strike outs and lower his walks while stranding runners at a higher clip. Clippard tends to allow a bit more fly balls than those on the ground, which could be a benefit if he wanted to come to Kansas City.

I would expect Clippard to have at the least moderate interest from other teams, but taking a flyer on Clippard at the right price could be a good call for Kansas City.

There were a couple other relievers that the Royals might want to at least keep their eye on over the next couple of months. One is the Royals former closer Greg Holland. Holland was absolutely putrid for St. Louis last year but saved some face late in the year for Washington.

During his short run for the Nationals, Holland posted a 0.84 ERA, 510 ERA+ and 1.3 bWAR in 24 games. More than likely Holland will be too pricey for Kansas City’s blood, but if he is still hanging around once camp opens it could be interesting to see just how low he would sign for.

The other name of interest is Drew Hutchison. Drew hasn’t had a full season in the big leagues since 2015 and is still just 28 years of age. It’s very apparent Hutchison would be a reclamation project for whichever team signs him this winter and more than likely would just be brought in on a minor league deal.

One has to wonder what a healthy Hutchison could do, whether it be as a reliever or even a starter. I’ve always been intrigued by him and he could be a perfect candidate as someone who the Royals could stow in Omaha for part of the summer and see if he regains some of his old spark.

So those are just a few names that I tend to think could help the Royals and be brought in fairly cheap. More than anything it doesn’t look like we will see a signing in the immediate future:

Royals general manager Dayton Moore has only a few million to spend to keep under his targeted payroll limit of $92 million, so expect Moore to be patient with the relievers market and wait until Spring Training nears before he makes his move.

At some point though, the Royals will need to add some arms for the bullpen. The question at this point appears to be who will still be available once Moore finally decides to strike.

January 15, 2019 0

Vote For Change: My 2018 Year End Awards

kc1 — Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The World Series is in the rear-view mirror and free agency has officially begun. That also means we are engulfed in award season, as the BBWAA has unveiled their winners throughout the last week. Meanwhile, my fellow writers in the IBWAA have also chosen their triumphant few and to the victor go the spoils. For the fifth year, I was able to vote as part of this illustrious group and decide on who was truly worthy. If you want to check out my voting record over the years, you just have a few clicks to adhere to: 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. As always, it is a true honor to have this opportunity to vote and I always vote with the utmost respect. With that being said, here are my picks to win awards in 2018:

kc2

American League MVP: Mookie Betts

Every year, I plan to pencil in Mike Trout for this award and most years that is how the vote ends up happening. Even last year, despite missing noticeable time due to an injury (or an upgrade, for those that believe Trout is a cyborg) he was my choice for MVP because of the sheer level of production he was putting up. But this year, Trout’s banner year just wasn’t quite enough to topple the year Mookie Betts had.

Bett’s numbers speak of a new level for him: .346/.438/.640, 32 home runs, 80 RBI’s, an OPS+ of 186, 10.9 bWAR and 10.4 fWAR. Betts lead the American League in runs, batting average, slugging percentage and WAR all while helping lead the charge for the Red Sox to procure another world championship.

But it wasn’t just the core numbers that won Betts this award. Mookie posted the highest extra base hit % of his career (13.7%), a great AB/HR ratio (16.3%), all while raising his walk rate to 13.2%, the highest of his career.

But what truly sealed the deal for me was his Win Probability Added, which lead the American League. Betts posted a 6.0 WPA according to Baseball-reference and a 5.77 for Fangraphs. The other candidates, most notably Trout and teammate JD Martinez are far enough away that this is a no-contest for me. Betts not only tore up the rest of the league, but was the most vital cog of the Red Sox’s arsenal.

With Betts posting another great year offensively and defensively (and the third consecutive above six wins a season) it will be interesting to see if the conversation starts of his place on the hierarchy of baseball’s elite. Trout has held the mantle for years, but if Betts keeps up at this pace, we could have to start inserting him into the conversation of ‘Best Player in Baseball’ sooner rather than later.

My Top 3: 1-Betts, 2-Martinez, 3-Trout

IBWAA Winner: Mookie Betts

BBWAA Winner: Mookie Betts

National League MVP: Christian Yelich

When the season began for the Milwaukee Brewers, their big offseason acquisition was former Kansas City Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain. But the other pick-up turned out to be even more notable, as the team went and acquired Christian Yelich from the Miami Marlins. While Cain had a great season, Yelich performed out of this world and garnered himself an MVP trophy.

Yelich has always had the talent to make himself an elite producer and in 2018 he elevated his game to a new stratosphere. By the time the season had wrapped up, Yelich led the NL in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases and WAR (both bWAR and fWAR) among position players in the league.

What really pushed Yelich over the edge was the second half of the season:

.@ChristianYelich turned up the heat in the 2nd half …

He led all @MLB qualifiers in AVG (.367), SLG (.770) & OPS (1.219) post-ASB. pic.twitter.com/26xZf7oCxV
— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) November 15, 2018

Down the stretch, Yelich was a monster as he hit a robust .370/.508/.804 in the final month of the season, not only cementing this award but also wrapping up a playoff spot for the Brewers.

The biggest change in his game was the elevation of the ball. The funny thing is, Yelich actually saw his fly ball rate go down (23.5%) from last year (25.2%), but he also saw his ground ball rate drop as well (down to 51.8% from last year’s 55.4%). But the increase happened in his line drive rate, which soared to 24.7%, up from 19.4% in 2017. Yelich was making better contact on the ball and it showed in his final numbers.

The cherry on top of the sundae for Yelich is his WPA, which lead in the NL for position players at 6.02. In fact, next on the list is Paul Goldschmidt, who posted a 4.66 WPA. That huge gap (as well as stellar defense) not only helped the Brewers but showed that Christian Yelich is far and away the winner of the National League Most Valuable Player award.

My Top 3: 1-Yelich, 2-Cain, 3-Carpenter

IBWAA Winner: Christian Yelich

BBWAA Winner: Christian Yelich

American League Cy Young Award: Blake Snell

This was easily the hardest vote for me and one that took me awhile to be comfortable with. Snell and Justin Verlander both put up stellar performances in 2018 but only one man can win, and my vote went to Snell despite a few issues that in years past would probably cost him an opportunity to win this award.

Let’s start with the “dark print”, or where Snell lead the league. Snell was first in ERA (1.89), ERA+ (219) and hits per 9 (5.6). There were two more categories that Snell lead in, which I want to focus on a bit deeper. First is RE24 (Run Expectancy, or for pitchers Runs Saved), where Snell lead with 48.4. To give you an idea of just how impressive that number is, the only pitcher better than Snell this past year was Jacob deGrom, who had an absolutely amazing year for the Mets. Also, Snell’s previous high in this category was 1.6…seriously.

The other stat Snell lead in was wins at 21, and I found this a bit amusing. Over the last few years, there has been a progressive movement to “Kill the Win”, with MLB analyst Brian Kenny leading the charge. The reasoning being that there are so many factors involved in a pitcher getting a “W” that doesn’t even involve the pitcher that it feels like an empty statistic. If we are being honest, I never look at a pitcher’s win total anymore. The only time I am even aware of it is if it is mentioned in a broadcast or in an article. The win to me doesn’t factor into how I vote, so I don’t even give it a second thought.

That being said, the other numbers did enough to help his case. But he did receive some stiff competition from Verlander, who lead in strike outs, WHIP, strike out to walk ratio and pitchers WAR. The most notable difference between the two pitchers was innings pitched. Verlander threw an impressive 214 innings over his 34 starts this season, while Snell threw only 180.2 innings over 31 starts.

For some, that would be a deal-breaker. There is a case that can be made that the extra 33 innings thrown by Verlander should count for a bit more and I can see that argument. There aren’t many pitchers that toss 200+ innings in today’s game and having that kind of stallion to ride can be a difference maker.

But for me, the numbers just leaned too far to Snell’s side to get me to throw my vote to Verlander. It was a tough choice and I honestly believe either pitcher is worthy of the award, but at the end of the day I picked Snell, as did both the BBWAA and the IBWAA.

My Top 3: 1-Snell, 2-Verlander, 3-Kluber

IBWAA winner: Blake Snell

BBWAA winner: Blake Snell

National League Cy Young Award: Jacob deGrom

I don’t get to do this very often but…I predicted this at the beginning of the year. Yep, I took a big swing and actually connected for a change. Honestly, this felt like a natural progression for deGrom and it felt like at some point he would put everything all together. That year was 2018.

In fact deGrom absolutely dominated this year and pretty much ran away with this award. deGrom lead the NL in ERA, ERA+, FIP, HR/9, WPA, RE24 and WAR. Dominance isn’t always a given when it comes to pitchers but this year was truly the year of deGrom.

To give you a deeper view of his dominance, let’s break down a few of the numbers. Batters hit .196/.244/.277 against deGrom, only taking him deep ten times this year. In fact, deGrom only gave up 40 total extra base hits this year over 217 innings. To give you a better view of how big a deal that is, the Anderson twins (Chase and Tyler, and yes, I am aware they aren’t actually twins) both gave up 30 home runs this year, or almost deGrom’s entire extra base total.

Want to go deeper? deGrom gave up 215 total bases. That number is actually pretty close to his 2016 number of 213 total bases. Oh, that was in 69 less innings then he accumulated this year. In other words, deGrom was a machine this year that no one could shut down.

There were even some analysts that felt deGrom was worthy of the NL MVP award this year, and it’s not too far of a reach. deGrom posted an insane 9.6 bWAR and 8.8 fWAR this year, both fairly large numbers for a starting pitcher. Throw in the 5.85 WPA and you have an argument that determines the value of deGrom is possibly on par with any hitter in the league.

I’ve always viewed the MVP as a hitter’s award, unless there is a pitcher that blows away the rest of the competition. By that, I mean there are players who play every day who are having really, really good seasons but not quite great. If that happens and there is a pitcher who has being insanely dominate, I would vote for the pitcher. In this case, Yelich had an amazing season and because he is out on the field every day, 162 games a year, my vote went to him.

I know that probably feels like I am slighting pitchers, but I am a firm believer in the mental aspect of the game and the wear and tear it has on position players. To say it is a grind would probably be an understatement. So while deGrom was out of this world this year, so was Yelich.

Luckily for the Cy Young award, there is no argument. deGrom wins this hands down and can put his season up there with such greats as Gooden, Gibson and Kershaw. Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in the National League this year, period.

My Top 3: 1-deGrom, 2-Scherzer, 3-Freeland

IBWAA Winner: Jacob deGrom

BBWAA Winner: Jacob deGrom

American League Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani

This felt like a slam-dunk for me and I was a bit surprised to hear some backlash from Yankees fans, but the best rookie in the American League this year was Shohei Ohtani. Sure, there were some great performances from Gleyber Torres, Brad Keller and Miguel Andujar, but none of them did what Ohtani did.

Let’s start there: Shohei Ohtani did things this year that hadn’t been done in a century. In. A. Century. Over the last 100+ years of baseball no one has achieved the feats that Ohtani did this year:

Ohtani is also the first player since Ruth in 1919 to throw 50 innings and hit 15 doubles, or to throw 50 innings and draw 25 walks, or to throw 50 innings and drive in (or score) more than 35 runs, or to throw 50 innings and make 200 plate appearances. He’s also the first player since George Sisler in 1915 to throw 50 innings and steal more than eight bases. You get where I’m going with this. Even Ohtani’s abbreviated rookie run was something no one had seen since before the Black Sox scandal, and it happened in a league that’s vastly more talented and specialized than the one Ruth revolutionized.

You get where we are going with this. Ohtani broke down the norms of what is expected of a major league ballplayer. He was a successful pitcher and hitter in 2018 but that isn’t even all of it. He did all of this while playing in a different league than he was used to. He did all of this while playing in a completely different country than he was used to. If that wasn’t enough, he pretty much made it look easy.

.285/.361/.564 batting line. 22 home runs, 61 RBI’s. OPS+ of 152. 126 ERA+. 1.6 WPA. 29% K rate. All while shuffling in between being a hitter and a pitcher. In a new league. In a new country. If he would have just put up average stats and been an average performer it still would have been impressive. But the fact he made it look easy shows what a true talent he is.

So sure, Andujar, Torres and Keller had great seasons. Any other year it is a different conversation and even possibly a battle for the winner. But this is a no-contest. Ohtani is the Rookie of the Year and no one came close to what he did.

My Top 3: 1-Ohtani, 2-Torres, 3-Keller

IBWAA Winner: Shohei Ohtani

BBWAA Winner: Shohei Ohtani

National League Rookie of the Year: Juan Soto

I mentioned earlier that the AL Cy Young was the toughest one to pick a winner, but a close second was this race. Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna were not only two rookies that shined in 2018, but they were pretty close to equals as well.

The two rookies tied for fWAR (3.7), were separated by four homers, 6 RBI’s, and .001 in batting average. Soto had a slightly higher OBP, while Acuna’s slugging was a bit higher. wRC+? Soto 146, Acuna 143. In other words, either player was worthy of being the best of 2018, but only one could win.

In matters like this, where two competitors are so close that you would have to break a tie, I normally lean toward value. Looking at WPA, Soto had the sizable lead, 3.46 to Acuna’s 1.96. RE24 is a bit closer, but still a runaway for Soto (30.45 to 26.69). Finally, with the Clutch stat on Fangraphs, Soto wins again, 0.22 to -0.12. When it came down to helping their team and making sure they are put in winning situations, Soto came away with a lengthy lead.

So while you can see why I picked Soto, it’s not like Acuna wasn’t deserving. In fact, these two were so good this year that you almost forget all the other great rookies in the National League. Guys like Harrison Bader and Walker Buehler are rarely talked about despite putting up numbers that are very good for a first year player. With a NL class like this, you wonder who will break out and shrug off the ‘Sophomore Slump’ in 2019. If this year was any kind of barometer, Soto and Acuna will soon be the cream of the crop of not just the NL, but the entire baseball world.

My Top 3: 1-Soto, 2-Acuna, 3-Buehler

IBWAA Winner: Ronald Acuna

BBWAA Winner: Ronald Acuna

American League Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash

This was another close race and one that could easily be a three-way tie. Bob Melvin of Oakland led his team of vagabonds and youngsters to a playoff spot despite starting the year with the lowest payroll in the game and 34-36 on June 15. Alex Cora led the Red Sox to 108 wins (and eventually a world championship) in his rookie year as a manager and was able to turn away the playoff bound New York Yankees.

But what Kevin Cash did with the Tampa Bay Rays is some other level managing job. Cash propelled a team that was supposed to hang out in the basement of the American League East and led them to a 90 win season. Despite the team trading off some of their best players before the trade deadline, they went out and turned themselves into contenders. The funniest part of the whole deal is he did this almost from a survival standpoint.

The Rays lost a couple of their top pitching prospects (Jose De Leon and Brent Honeywell) before the season to injuries. Anthony Banda joined that list a few months into the season. After trading Chris Archer at the trade deadline, they were left with one actual starting pitcher. The lack of starters led Cash to use “The Opener”, where he would have a reliever start the game, pitch an inning or two and then hand the ball off to someone who could go deeper into the game.

This wasn’t done to be cute or try something new out as much as just a lack of starting pitching…and it worked. ‘The Opener’ became a regular part of their rotation and helped bridge the gap for a number of their younger pitchers.

The team focused on good pitching and defense and that helped get them to third place in the East, ten games behind the second place Yankees. Cash pushed the right buttons and his calm demeanor helped keep his team focused through a number of rough patches.

So while Melvin and Cora deserve a ton of praise, Kevin Cash deserves this award. If anything, Cash earned his managerial stripes in 2018 and has come out with a contract extension. It’s too bad he didn’t get some hardware to go with it.

My Top 3: 1-Cash, 2-Melvin, 3-Cora

IBWAA Winner: Bob Melvin

BBWAA Winner: Bob Melvin

National League Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker

The story of Brian Snitker is one that easily could be made into a ‘feel good’ movie for Disney. Snitker is a guy who has been the loyal soldier, a guy who has been in the Atlanta organization since 1977, when he was a minor league player. He has managed for almost every one of their minor league teams and even spent a stint as the major league team’s third base coach from 2007 to 2013. Snitker has been there and done that when it comes to the Braves organization.

But in May of 2016, Snitker was promoted to manager for the Braves on an interim basis and he would get the job full-time in October of that year. So the path Brian took to this role was a long and lengthy one, but he didn’t really reach his stride until this past season.

What Snitker did in 2018 is something no one, not even the Atlanta front office, expected. He led the Braves to a 90 win season, a National League East title and their first playoff appearance since 2013. This from a team that wasn’t really supposed to contend until 2019.

But it shouldn’t be too surprising it came early. With a nice mix of veterans (Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis) and top-shelf prospects (Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna), the Braves took advantage of the Washington Nationals’ pratfall and dominated the NL East for most of the season. While the talent will get most of the credit, Snitker deserves some heavy praise for the culture he has fostered in Atlanta. Former Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur told a great story of Snitker that goes back years before:

One of Jeff Francoeur’s favorite stories occurred after he homered a few times for Double-A Mississippi and then got drilled in the ribs against Montgomery. Snitker instructed a reliever to retaliate. When the pitcher simply buzzed a batter, Snitker blasted the pitcher in the dugout and told him to get out of his sight.
When one of Mississippi’s pitchers retaliated the next inning, the benches cleared and the umpires halted the game.
“After we got back in the clubhouse, [Snitker] grabbed a beer and told us he had never been more proud of the way we came together as a team that day,” Francoeur said. “If you play for him, you know he’s always going to protect you and have your back.”

Probably one of the best ways to describe Snitker is hard but fair. It appears that his mentality is exactly what this Braves team needed. Craig Counsell and Bud Black did some great things for Milwaukee and Colorado, respectively, but Snitker’s accomplishment this year has earned my vote for NL Manager of the Year.

My Top 3: 1-Snitker, 2-Black, 3-Counsell

IBWAA Winner: Brian Snitker

BBWAA Winner: Brian Snitker

American League Reliever of the Year: Blake Treinen

Blake Treinen of Oakland had a year for the ages in 2018. Before this year, Treinen was almost a stereotype for a reliever: Great stuff, but not consistent enough with his location. Treinen could miss bats, but didn’t miss them as much as he needed them to.

That all changed this past year, as Treinen’s late break on his pitches helped increase his numbers across the board. He bumped up his strike out rate to 31.8% (previous high was 24%) and saw his walk rate take a dip. Hitters also went from hitting .271 against him in 2017 to .157 this year.

Treinen posted an ERA of 0. 78 and a FIP of 1.82. An interesting look into his numbers show a guy who’s luck appeared to switch around in 2018. In 2017, batters posted a BABIP of .344 against him. Luck was not on his side. But in 2018, his BABIP was .230, .114 points lower. Whatever he changed this year made a huge difference in his results.

What’s interesting is there is a huge difference when it comes to pitch usage this past season. Treinen did use his slider a bit less (21% compared to 25.5% in 2017) but his cutter was used 11.8%, up from 0.5%. His velocity also saw a slight uptick this year, but nothing that will blow the doors off. More than anything it appears he used his cutter slightly more and the extra movement made it harder to put the ball in play.

Whatever he did, it appears to have elevated him to the top of the relief game in the American League. His dominance not only helped lift Oakland to a playoff spot, but also my nod for American League Reliever of the Year.

My Top 3: 1-Treinen, 2-Diaz, 3-Leclerc

IBWAA Winner: Edwin Diaz

BBWAA Winner: Edwin Diaz

National League Reliever of the Year: Josh Hader

There was no reliever in the NL this last year that dominated quite like Josh Hader. Hader steamrolled through the league in his second season and left a litany of whiffs in his path. My comparison has been ‘Mitch Williams with control’ and in 2018 he proved to be a force to be reckoned with.

Let’s begin with the numbers: 2.43 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.7 fWAR over 81 innings. Hader struck out batters at a 46.7% clip while posting a K-BB% of 36.9%. The best part is that he did this basically using two pitches: a fastball and a slider.

What Hader did was basically tell the hitter “here it is, now hit it” and most of the time the batter failed. Hader did allow nine homers this year, which equates to allowing one every nine innings. Hitters did make contact on Hader at almost a 70% clip when he put the ball in the strike zone. But this one blemish wasn’t enough to take away from his great year.

With Jeremy Jeffress still in the fold, it will be interesting to see if he continues to close or if Hader will get more opportunities in 2019. Hader did save 12 games and blow 5 (if you keep track of that stuff) and that number could see an increase in the next season. What Hader has done is put the rest of baseball on alert that he is one of the best relievers in all of the game, no matter what inning he is throwing in.

My Top 3: 1-Hader, 2-Jeffress, 3-Erlin

IBWAA Winner: Josh Hader

BBWAA Winner: Josh Hader

So there you have it, another season officially wraps up as we reward those that reached the highest of achievements. It is a great honor that I get to vote every year like this and I can only hope I do a respectable part to show the value of an organization like the IBWAA. This is a game we all love and while we might squabble here and there on numbers, it really comes down to what you value. I can only hope 2019 brings us just as many highly contested winners. Here’s to baseball being back sooner rather than later.

November 23, 2018 0

A Winning Formula

You’ve probably noticed but in case you haven’t, the Kansas City Royals have been playing good baseball as of late. The team is 16-14 over their last 30 games and 12-8 over the last 20. It has felt like night and day in comparison with how the Royals performed during the first two months of the season. So what has changed to cause all this winning?

The most obvious answer is the influx of young talent in the Royals lineup on a daily basis. Ryan O’Hearn, Adalberto Mondesi, Hunter Dozier and Brett Phillips have all become regulars for Kansas City and while a few of those names have been on the roster for months now, they have never looked as comfortable as they have recently. This change has not only been a spark for the lineup, but has really shifted the morale in the clubhouse.

It also helps that the offense has been one of the best in the league over this past month. The Royals are 1st in slugging and ISO(tied for the lead with Oakland and Toronto), 2nd in wOBA, BABIP and batting average, 3rd in WAR and RBI’s and 4th in wRC+, runs, home runs and OBP. They have the second best hard hit rate over that span and the 5th best win probability added in the AL. The offense is leading the way and producing at a level we really haven’t seen from Kansas City since 2015.

But maybe the most important shift has been the Royals increased emphasis on running the basepaths. The Royals are first in the league in stolen bases and BsR over the last month and fourth in Ultimate Base Running (UBR). Early in the season, Kansas City wasn’t running as often and it made sense why. At that point, the lineup was filled with older and slower players like Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda, players who aren’t exactly known for their speed. Factor in the colder weather as well, and Kansas City was a very station-to-station team.

But in the last 30 days, the team has made speed a potent part of their offense. Whit Merrifield, Mondesi and Alex Gordon (yes, ALEX F. GORDON!) have all been taking advantage of their baserunning expertise and Whit is even tied for the league lead in BsR over that span. This has allowed the Royals batters more situations with runners in scoring position and given them more opportunities to drive in those runners. All this equals a greater chance for runs and the Royals have taken advantage of it.

So the offense has been a big part of the Royals recent success, but it isn’t the only element that has improved. Kansas City’s starting pitching has been just as vital for the team’s success as the bats. Over the last 30 days, the Royals starters have the 3rd best ERA, HR per 9 and HR/FB rate, 4th best WAR, WPA, BB per 9 and WHIP and 5th best FIP and xFIP. The Royals starters have thrown the 2nd most innings in that span (152.1 innings, only behind Cleveland) and while they haven’t been a dominating bunch (they’ve posted a 19.3% K rate in the last month, which is only 10th best in the league) they have found a way to get outs.

The most accurate representation of how they have been getting the job done would appear to be how the ball is being put into play. The Royals starters have allowed the third best ground ball rate and are 14th in fly ball rate, which is next to last. So they are making the opposing batters put the ball on the ground more, allowing the infield to be put to good use. The Royals have a very good defensive infield and it appears the team is working to their strength in that regard.

On the opposite end of that spectrum, they are not allowing as many fly balls which would also explain the lack of homers allowed. Many of the teams in the American League are built to be home run teams, so when that is stifled it would appear to be a big blow into their offensive output. It really appears like the starting pitching is working smarter, not harder.

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Combine all of these efforts and you get a winning month for the Kansas City Royals. It appears that the shift to youth has been the right move for this franchise and hopefully is a springboard for expectations over the next couple of years.

What will be the most interesting aspect to follow is whether or not the team is able to take the experience from the last month and transfer that over into the 2019 season. While success in September should sometimes be taken with a grain of salt due to everything from roster call-ups to playoff teams resting their regulars more often, the Royals are doing a number of things right and it has led to success. This won’t mean the team will become a winning ballclub again next season, but it does create some hope and intrigue that wasn’t there just a few months ago.

September 27, 2018 0

Deciding Who Will be the Next Royals Pitcher to throw a No-Hitter

On Saturday night, Kansas City Royals history was almost made. Jorge Lopez, in just his fifth start in a Royals uniform, went into the 9th inning with a perfect game. Throughout the 50 year history of the Royals, no pitcher has ever thrown a perfect game and there have been only four (4!!) Royals no-hitters during that span.

The last one was all the way back in 1991, as Bret Saberhagen threw a no-no against the Chicago White Sox on August 26 of that year. Saberhagen would hold the “Pale Hose” to two walks and five strike outs over the nine innings. The fact that this was 27 years ago probably eliminates a number of you from seeing this feat but I remember it fondly.

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It was rare at that time for the Royals to have a home game on television so it felt like a real treat to take in the game that August evening. Add in that Saberhagen was one of my favorites AND it would end up being his final season in Kansas City (which would crush me as a young fan just a few months later) and you can see why moments from that game still take up residence inside of my mind.

But that was then and no one has thrown a no-hitter for the Royals since. Not Kevin Appier, not Zack Greinke, not Jose Rosado and definitely not Jonathan Sanchez. There have been a number of one-hitter’s thrown during that span: most notably Kevin Appier’s complete game loss against Texas back in 1993 and Danny Duffy’s sterling performance against Tampa Bay just two years ago, where he threw seven no-hit innings.

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So Lopez’s performance got me thinking: who are the most likely candidates within the Royals organization to throw the team’s next no-hitter? While it is no guarantee it will happen with the current talent, as with Lopez, all it takes is one night where things just fall into place.

Now Lopez is obviously one of the prime candidates, if not the most obvious. When his fastball has the kind of movement we saw on Saturday and when he is able to mix in his curveball as a real weapon, it can make for a lethal combo. As evidenced by this past weekend, it’s not always about missing bats, as Lopez struck out only four batters. It does take a nice mix of good stuff, solid defense and a little dash of luck.

But Lopez is just one candidate on this list. Here are a few more choices, in no particular order:

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Danny Duffy

Duffy is not only a possibility because of his past performances but also because of his ace status on this club when he is healthy. While this season has been a disappointing one for Duffy, there were outings this year where we saw the guy who was “shoving” on the mound that night in Tampa back in 2016.

Just go back to June 9th against Oakland, where he went seven deep, giving up three hits while striking out ten. For Duffy it’s not as much about his stuff that day as it is his efficiency. When Duffy is being efficient by throwing strikes and not driving up his pitch count, he is more likely to get into a rhythm and continuing to throw strikes. It’s not hard to see him throwing a game where his pitches have bite and hitters aren’t able to make good contact off of him. If that happens, a scenario could unfold where Duffy is throwing zeroes.

Jakob Junis

Junis might seem like an odd choice here because of the sheer amount of hits he gives up on a regular basis. Yes, those hit things are a bit of a problem if you are trying to throw a “no-hitter”. See, it’s right there in the name. No-hit.

In fact, Junis on average gives up about a hit per inning. So far this year, he is averaging 8.8 hits per 9, while last year he averaged 9.2. Once again, this would have to change for him to throw a no-no.

But there is a reason I picked him as a candidate and it’s a solid reason: his slider. Junis has one of the most vicious sliders in the game and when it is working it probably means Junis is coasting (and not just against the Tigers). Junis’ “out pitch” gives him a special weapon, especially since hitters know it is coming and still have trouble doing anything with it.

On those nights that Junis’ slider is at a peak level, anything is possible. But more than likely if he is going to throw a no-hitter it will be against the Tigers. In fact I’ll call my shot and say if he throws one, it will be against Detroit. That just feels like a safe bet.

kc5 — Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Staumont

The first step for Staumont is obviously to just perform consistently enough to reach the big leagues. But if he does, he would instantly have some of the most electric stuff on the team. Staumont has a fastball in his arsenal that can reach triple digits, a good breaking ball and a curveball that has power and depth.

But his control…yep, his control is the whole issue. The lowest walk rate of his career is 15.8% from this past season and over his career he has averaged over seven walks per 9. If he ended up throwing a no-no, he would be one of those pitchers who haven’t given up a hit but have walked like five or six batters. It would even be possible he would give up a run or two because of it.

But all it takes is one night of unhittable stuff to place yourself in the record books. Staumont has the stuff, he just has to learn to control it better to be put in that situation in the first place.

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Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar

It might feel a bit early to toss the two biggest draft picks from this year into the mix, but it also feels like both will be in the majors sooner rather than later. There is a good chance these two will be a focal point of the Royals rotation once they get there and with that comes the opportunity needed to throw a no-hitter.

Both pitchers have great stuff and while Singer is the farther developed of the two, Kowar has shown gradual development throughout his college career and has already shown some of what he is capable of at the minor league level these last couple months.

That being said, if either is going to be the one to reach the achievement last done by Saberhagen, it isn’t going to be anytime soon. Both will be spending time moving up the ladder in the Royals system these next few years and while Singer could be up in the big leagues as early as next year, that is also a best case scenario.

While that feels like a deeper look into the future, the honesty of the situation is that we are talking about an accomplishment that hasn’t been done by any Royals pitcher in 27 years. Yes, the no-hitter drought for Kansas City is reaching the playoff drought level that was snapped in 2014. So while Singer and Kowar are still a ways off, they also could be the best chance the team has of giving up no hits in one game anytime in the near future.

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But before anyone feels like they should feel bad for us Royals fans, know that it could be worse. The San Diego Padres, a franchise that came into existence the same year as the Royals, have never had a no-hitter thrown in their history. The New York Mets, who were founded in 1962 and have such greats as Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden as part of their alumni, didn’t get their first no-no until 2012, when Johan Santana shut down the St. Louis Cardinals.

So while some of you have been Royals fans all your life and have never seen your team throw one, take solace in knowing it has happened. Like all great things in life, sometimes you have to be patient to get something as rare as a no-hitter. The Royals will get there again; it just might take some time.

September 20, 2018 0

Gone But Not Forgotten

When the 2017 Kansas City Royals wrapped up their season this past October, we all knew it was the end of an era. It was not only the end of the line for a number of players who had been a large part of the Royals return to postseason play for the first time in decades, but it also meant the end of contending baseball in Kansas City, at least for a while.

It’s not always easy to say goodbye. Max Rieper talked the other day about how much we end up caring about these players, not only for their on the field work but who they are as people. It’s why players from the past, like Bret Saberhagen or Bo Jackson, are still cheered when making rare appearances at Kauffman Stadium.

It’s also why we still check up on former Royals to see how they doing after they leave Kansas City. Good or bad, we want to know what they are up to and in most cases hoping they have found success outside of their former home. Except for Neifi Perez. He was the worst.

So with that, let’s take a peek into what some former Royals are doing in their first year away from Kansas City.

Lorenzo Cain has been absolutely amazing in his return to Milwaukee, as he is hitting a robust .293/.393/.427 with a wRC+ of 125. Cain is third in the National League in fWAR at 3.6 and has the most defensive runs saved for a center fielder with 14. Maybe the most impressive improvement in Cain’s game this year has been plate discipline, as he is posting a 13.4% walk rate, which would easily topple his career high of 8.4% from last year. Cain’s increase shouldn’t be too surprising, considering the Royals have put a heavy emphasis on putting the ball in play these last few years and less focus on working the count.

Overall, Cain has been worth the money Milwaukee spent on him this past offseason and he looks to be in the running for National League MVP as the Brewers attempt to play October baseball. Milwaukee currently sits in 2nd place in the NL Central, 2.5 games behind the Cubs while holding down the first wild card spot in the league.

kc3 — Credit: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Jason Vargas on the other hand has been a disappointment for the New York Mets. Vargas has started in nine games for the Mets, posting an ERA of 8.60 over 37.2 innings with a FIP of 6.60. Vargas’ walk and strike out rates have stayed consistent but teams are hitting a hot .337 off of him with a .367 BABIP. Vargas has also seen his hard hit rate increase, jumping to 37.4% from last year’s 32.7%.

Vargas has spent considerable time on the disabled list this year and recently has been rehabbing in the minors. The news could get even worse for Vargas when he is activated, as the team could ease him back into action by making him a long reliever rather than a return to the rotation. Considering this is his age 35 season, we might be seeing the last leg’s of Vargas’ career.

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Melky Cabrera has had a “roller coaster” type season so far in 2018, as he didn’t sign a contract until late April, when the Indians signed him to a minor league deal. Cleveland would punch his ticket back to the majors a few weeks later, as he was recalled on May 20th.

Melky would be less than impressive during his stint for the Tribe, as he would hit .207/.242/.293 over 66 plate appearances with 11 RBI’s, a wRC+ of 38 and -0.5 fWAR. Cabrera would elect free agency about a month into his stay in Cleveland rather than accept an outright assignment back to the minors.

But the ride wasn’t over yet. A few weeks later, the Indians would re-sign Melky on July 5th, and assigning him to Triple-A Columbus. Cabrera has at least been productive for Columbus this year, hitting .324/.333/.423 with a wRC+ of 111. With Lonnie Chisenhall out of action, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Cabrera back in Cleveland before the summer is over.

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Scott Alexander has also had an up and down year during his inaugural year in Los Angeles. Alexander struggled in the first month of the season, posting a 6.35 ERA while batters were hitting .286/.412/.381 off of him over 11.1 innings. Alexander would even get sent down to the minors for a short spell to right the ship.

Luckily for him, he would turn things around in May. Since May 9, Alexander has a 2.25 ERA and has held hitters to a line of .214/.285/.304 while keeping the ball on the ground. In fact, throughout the month of June he only allowed one fly ball the entire month. One!

Alexander has essentially returned to form and is now a vital part of the Dodgers bullpen. He was even used as an “opener” for Los Angeles, as they attempted to thwart the Rockies use of a bunch of lefties at the top of the order. It doesn’t matter what role he is inserted in, as it appears Dodgers fans are starting to see the pitcher who might have been the most valuable arm for the Royals in 2017.

Speaking of valuable, Joakim Soria has been just that for the White Sox this year. Soria has a 2.75 ERA, 149 ERA+ and a 2.20 FIP so far in 2018. He has already almost reached his fWAR total from last year (1.2 to 1.7) in 20 less innings and has seen a major increase in his soft hit rate, bumping up this year to 29.6% from 18.4% in 2017. Soria will probably be dealt before the July trade deadline and should help the White Sox pick up a nice return for him.

Mike Minor’s return to starting has been a mixed bag. Minor signed with the Rangers this past winter and has started all 18 of his appearances so far this year. While the expectation was that some of his numbers would see a decline this year due to his change in roles, it hasn’t completely been a bad move.

Minor has seen his strike out rate fall and his hard hit rate increase, but his walk rate has actually gone down. In fact if you compare his numbers this year against his time as a starter with Atlanta, he is either on par with what he was doing back then or slightly better.

But at the end of the day, it appears Minor has more value as a reliever, as evidenced by his WPA of -0.42, compared to last year’s 1.97 in Kansas City. Minor wanted to be a reliever and got his wish, but one has to wonder where he would be if he had stayed in the bullpen.

kc8 — Credit: Thearon W. Henderson, Getty Images

There have been some other former Royals who have had interesting seasons. Trevor Cahill has performed admirably for Oakland this year, as he has an ERA of 3.10 while increasing his strike outs and lowering his walks. Unfortunately, he has only started nine games due to injury, tossing 52.1 innings.

Ryan Buchter also missed some time due to injury but returned to the A’s in late June and since then has lowered his ERA to below 2.00 while lowering his walks and seeing an uptick in K’s.

Sam Gaviglio has become a regular part of the Blue Jays rotation but is still performing slightly below league average. Luke Farrell has become a valuable arm out of the Cubs bullpen and Matt Strahm has become what many of us feared he could be when he was traded to San Diego last summer.

But the name that most are interested in is Eric Hosmer and what he has done for the Padres this year. This has not been a magical year for the “Man Called Hos”, as he is hitting a lowly .249/.317/.397 with a -0.1 fWAR.

In fact, Hosmer is on pace for the second worst offensive season of his career, behind only his miserable 2012. His walks are down, strike outs are up and his wRC+ is at 95. Hosmer has gotten away from hitting the ball to the opposite field, as he is only hitting the ball to left field 27.3%. The only two seasons he has hit oppo less is 2014 and 2012, his two worst seasons in the big leagues.

But the number that really speaks of Hosmer’s struggles is the same one we have been talking about for years, his groundball rate. He currently is hitting the ball on the ground 61.9%, the highest of his career. For all the talk these last few years that Hosmer would leave Kansas City and start hitting the ball in the air, it appears things have actually tilted the opposite direction.

The funny part is that Hosmer has known for years he should be hitting the ball in the air more, yet his fly ball rate has been declining these last few years. Here is a quote from 2017 where Hosmer admits he should be taking to the air more:

“You look at the averages and all that, it’s definitely better with the ball in the air,” he said. “Most guys, especially power hitters, are trying to hit the ball in the air. Our stadium is playing a little different, it’s bigger out there, but still, somebody in my spot in the lineup, and type of hitter I am, I should definitely be trying to hit the ball in the air.”

So this notion that he would change his style as soon as he left Kansas City and Kauffman Stadium always felt like wishful thinking. A change could still happen, but right now Hosmer looks to be stuck in one of his infamous cold spells that last for weeks on end. The good news for him is that he will still get paid $20 million this year and has lots of time left on his contract to figure things out…or at least the Padres hope he figures it out.

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So after seeing all the talent that Kansas City lost this past winter, it’s easy to see how the Royals are on pace for the worst season in team history. The combination of losing some key pieces while their substitutions are performing either at or below replacement level is a good way to post a .284 winning percentage.

So while there is little joy in Mudville (Kansas City), feel safe in knowing that a number of former Royals are excelling in their new homes. It’s not hard to still cheer for the Cain’s and Soria’s of the world and there is a bit of solace in seeing them performing so well, even if it isn’t in royal blue. There is absolutely nothing wrong with cheering on our old friends from afar. Except for Neifi Perez. He is still the worst.

July 24, 2018 0

Tag: Oakland A’s