He’s Back

Credit: Getty Images

If you spent the winter fretting over whether Royals outfielder Alex Gordon was going to come back to Kansas City or retire, this past week’s news that Gordon was returning on a one-year, $4 million dollar deal should have been a relief. Gordon has been with the organization since he was drafted by Kansas City back in 2005 and has been in the big leagues (outside of a few trips to the minors) since 2007. Gordon is the link between the past and the future, a man who has been around longer than even GM Dayton Moore. When you think of the Royals over the last dozen years, you probably think of Gordon.

Gordon is everything that is good about this organization. Whether it’s the charity work, the countless hours spent on honing his game, the learning curve of leaving third base behind to roam the outfield while at a career crossroad, the defense in left field, the home runs in the postseason and even the struggles over the last four seasons, Alex Gordon has been a constant and the closest thing they have had to George Brett since he retired in 1993.

With all that said, not everyone is happy that Gordon is coming back. Some will argue that a man who is entering his age 36 season will just hold back a younger player who could receive valuable playing time this season if Gordo had stayed home. Some will point out that his best offensive season since 2016 was last year, and even then he could only muster an OPS+ of 96, which is just a smidge under league average. Some will say it is time to move on and let the past stay in the past, as a new era of Kansas City Royals baseball is getting ready to begin.

Photo Credit by Rob Tringali/MLB via Getty Images

But I’m not one of those people. I actually think the best thing for the Royals this season is for Gordon to be in tow. To me, having Gordon back gives this organization some stability as they maneuver into uncharted waters with a new owner and a new manager. To me, the script for the Royals this season just wouldn’t feel right without Alex out in left field.

So today, let’s weigh the positives and negatives of this signing. There are easily a nice dose of both and I will even admit that I see some of what the naysayers are saying when they view this as a poor signing. So let’s take off the “fan” hat for just a moment and put on our “subjective” hat and dissect the return of Alex Gordon.

First let’s look at Alex’s offense. As I said earlier, he did post what I will generously list as a league average season offensively in 2019. With that being said, he did improve his strike out rate, he saw a slight increase in his power numbers (including ISO) and improved his on base stats. But it doesn’t change the fact that at 36 years old, Gordon is a league average hitter at best and history has shown us that most players are likely to regress moving forward rather than improve. He will get on base at a decent clip, provide some power off and on, but his days of being an offensive force are essentially over.

Is Gordon blocking a younger player from getting quality playing time? This is a bit harder to really estimate, but there are two younger players (Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling) who an argument could be made would receive playing time if Gordon had not re-signed.

At this point, it’s not really known if Starling would receive the extra playing time no matter what. Bubba got a chance to show what he could do the last few months of 2019, and while defensively he might be the Royals best in the outfield, offensively he struggled. Over 197 plate appearances, Starling put up an OPS+ of 50 (league average is 100) and posted a negative WAR from both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Add in that he has only had two minor league seasons where he was an above average hitter, and it just appears that Starling is better suited to being a 4th outfielder or defensive replacement.

When it comes to Brett Phillips, there is at the least an argument that he should receive more playing time. Phillips struggled again in the big leagues in 2019 (.138/.247/.262, 35 OPS+), but showed some progress in AAA. From June 1 to August 13, Phillips hit .277/.404/.613 over 238 plate appearances and while he still struck out a decent amount (52 times over 58 games), he also walked 40 times and combined for 28 extra base hits.

The changes didn’t really transfer over during his time in the big leagues last year, but he did enough to at least get an audition at some point in 2020. Gordon being back in the picture might hinder that a bit, but you can say the same thing when the Royals acquired Maikel Franco and moved Hunter Dozier to right field. If the Royals were confident in Phillips, Franco wouldn’t have been signed. Gordon coming back appears to have been expected all along, so his return doesn’t appear to be the one blocking Phillips from playing time.

Credit: Royals.com

Gordon’s defense is still a plus for the team, as shown by him winning another Gold Glove award this offseason. He isn’t quite the defender he was in his prime, but he is still considered among the elite at his position. He might be a step or two slower, but he makes up for it with positioning and knowing how the ball moves as it makes its way to left field.

More than anything, it feels that Gordon is at a point in his tenure in Kansas City where he decides his own fate. You can’t blame the front office for wanting Gordon to stay in the fold, as his leadership and work ethic alone gives him value to the organization. There might not be any better stories than the ones told by younger players who want to prove themselves by showing up early in spring training and proving to management their dedication to making the team…only to find Alex Gordon is already there and has been working out for awhile. Gordon is the bar to climb towards in the organization and is the model when it comes to putting your all into being a part of the Royals.

So after 13 years, Gordon should be the one to decide whether he comes or goes. He doesn’t strike me as a player who will stay past his welcome and the Royals don’t appear to be a club that would allow that to happen. Considering that Kansas City will want to keep him in the organization whenever his playing career is over, allowing him to go out on his terms seems like the smart and respectful thing to do for the guy who has only wanted to play for one team.

Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images

So while we are looking at the twilight of his career, it makes more sense to keep Gordon around than to not. We shouldn’t expect him to be any more than he has been these last few years and there is a good chance we don’t even see him take the field for more than 150 games in 2020. But considering all the reasons to let him go, keeping Gordon around feels like the right thing to do for this Royals team.

While some fans (like myself) love the numbers involved in baseball and even make suggestions based on those numbers, sometimes keeping a player around has very little to do with the statistics. Sometimes the right thing is to bring back a player who has been the core for this Royals team for the last ten years. Gordon has all the attributes that we love in our baseball players and has earned that respect.

If anything, the Houston Astros have proven over the last four months that structuring an organization based purely off of winning and losing allows for behavior that can be detrimental for any team. For as much grief as we give Dayton Moore, one of the characteristics that he should be applauded for is creating a family atmosphere within the Royals organization. Alex Gordon is the one of the wise father’s of this club and instead of looking at the possible negatives, I’m choosing to look at the positives as he makes his final turn around third base. Gordo has earned it.

Destination Unknown: Where Will the Royals Free Agents Land?

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Here we are halfway through January and baseball’s “Hot Stove” is more like a frigid freezer. There has been some speculation as to why the free agent market is as dead as a door nail; Jeff Passan broke down baseball’s economic system while Max Rieper did a great job looking into baseball’s middle class. No matter how you view this situation, the bottom line is there are a number of players ripe for the picking on the market right now and that includes the “Big 4” of the Kansas City Royals. Still out there are Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas, all still unemployed as of this writing. There is no way these four don’t end up on some needy team soon, but who will they finally sign with? I thought it would be fun today to look at each player and throw out some guesses as to where they end up. Do I have any inside information? Nope. Am I just going to guess? Kind of. Should you take this seriously? Since I’m not their agent, probably not. Chalk this up as just a fun exercise to pass what has been about the slowest winter since the mid-80’s, when that dreaded “C” word was going around (Yes, collusion. Not the other “C” word…).

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Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Moustakas

It does appear as the market has almost flat-lined for Moose. Most speculated that the Angels would be the most obvious pick for Moustakas, since he is from California and they were in need of a third baseman. Instead, they signed Zack Cozart. Maybe the Giants? Nope, as they plucked Evan Longoria from the Rays. Whether it is the draft pick a team would have to give up to sign him, concerns about his injury history or just trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold (I’m looking at you, Yankees), it appears every team has had more worries than they would like when it comes to signing Moustakas. Even earlier this week, we are still just hearing a sprinkle of interest when it comes to team’s looking for a slugging third baseman. Baltimore has been mentioned, but they have Manny Machado at the hot corner and Tim Beckham proved he could start at shortstop for the O’s, so it’s not like they have to make a move and force Machado back to shortstop. Milwaukee has been mentioned but they still have Travis Shaw, who one would think would be a slightly younger, cheaper option for the Brewers. I still contend that Moose would be the guy that Kansas City should look into, but it appears that is purely a long shot.  It will be interesting to see where he finally ends up, but I definitely think his value has shrunk and he is more likely to get a two-year deal out of a team than four years and up. A one-year deal is possible, but that would force him back onto the market next winter, with competition from fellow third baseman Machado and Josh Donaldson. To be frank, things aren’t looking good on the long-term front for Mike Moustakas.

Likely Destination: St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays v Kansas City Royals

Alcides Escobar

If the Moustakas market feels cold, then Escobar’s is Antarctica. To say the rumors of interested teams for Esky is limited would be an understatement. There’s the Padres, who showed interest in him before acquiring Freddy Galvis to play shortstop, and then there are…ummm…there is also the…uhhh…no one. Nope, I haven’t seen any other team linked to Escobar this winter, outside of a few writers suggesting locations that might need him. The honest truth is that Escobar has been a weak hitter these last few years who has gotten by on his defense…which has begun to regress. So it shouldn’t be a shock to say that the market for a light hitting shortstop, entering a period where his defense and speed will start to wane as well, is sparse. There aren’t many options for Alcides, so at this point he might have to just take what he can get, even if it is a role as a backup mentor on a rebuilding team.

Likely Destination: Kansas City Royals

Arizona Diamondbacks Kansas City Royals

Lorenzo Cain

This might be the most curious of available Royals still out there, since Cain actually has a lot of value and isn’t represented by Scott Boras. We’ve all heard the teams that have shown interest in LoCain: Giants, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Blue Jays just to name the most interested. More than likely, the main reason Cain is even still on the market is his age and injury history, combined with a desire for a long-term deal. The long-term thing always appeared to be a hang-up for the Royals and probably went a long way to them not focusing their attention on him. There have been a number of articles written recently discussing Cain’s value and why team’s should be jumping over each other to sign him. I have to believe the answer lies somewhere in-between, as this quote from the Passan piece I mentioned earlier:

One assistant GM interested in center fielder Lorenzo Cain thought about the possibility of offering him a multiyear deal. “I’d rather just give him one year at $24 million,” he said, and maybe he didn’t realize that the one-year deal was a hallmark of collusion, and maybe he did.

It appears that teams would be more interested in someone like Cain and even pay him more on a shorter deal than lock him up on a longer deal. I know as a fan I have had my concerns about Cain’s health and more importantly, the health of his legs. If as a fan I am having that concern, you could see why major league team’s appear to be weary as well when it comes to the long-term health of an outfielder who will be entering his age 32 season in 2018.

Likely Destination: Milwaukee Brewers

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Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Eric Hosmer

…and then there is Eric Hosmer. There has been a ton of speculation of just who will lock-up Hosmer, but the honest truth is there appears to be only two teams really committed to the idea of making him a long time fixture in their organization: the Royals and the Padres. It does appear both teams are willing to go six to seven years on a deal but the money looks to be the major hang-up in getting the pen to paper. A few other teams appear at least in the mix (the Cardinals and Red Sox keep getting brought up), even if it is just dipping their toes into the proverbial water. Teams have concerns about Hosmer, with a lot of it being directed at his ground ball rate (55.6% in 2017) and whether or not he would adjust his hitting style to allow the ball to be put in the air more often. Any deal over five years takes with it a certain amount of risk and when you add in the ground balls, the defensive metrics and the inconsistency he has had over the years, you can see why more teams aren’t flocking to bring him into their fold. Hosmer very well could be the first major Royals free agent to sign, but he could also be the final domino to fall. With Hos, it will all come down to if an offer is on the table that his agent (Boras) feels comfortable with.

Likely Destination: Kansas City Royals

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Credit: John Sleezer/KC Star

If this winter has proven anything, it’s that teams have become more methodical in how they spend their money and the effects are being felt by this crop of long-time Royals. Do I feel comfortable with my guesses? Not really. This market has been the hardest to read and it might just come down to the best offer on the table whenever pitchers and catchers report next month. The best scenario for the Royals is still for their stars to sign elsewhere, accumulate the extra draft picks and let the team start rebuilding. But the Royals front office sometimes zags when we think they will zig, so I guess that means the possibility is still out there for all four to return to Kansas City. I would say crazier things have happened, but I don’t know if anything is crazier than the lack of action we have seen this winter.

 

Hello, Goodbye

San Francisco Giants v Kansas City Royals

On Monday the Kansas City Royals extended a qualifying offer to ace James Shields, a $15.3 million offer that assures the team will receive a compensation pick for Shields if he signs with another team before June 8th. Shields can accept the offer, but he has to by November 10th. The odds say he will not accept it, as Shields will be looking for a multi-year deal at possibly a higher rate this winter and there are many teams(Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Yankees, etc.) who will be enticed by James’ ability to be a workhorse for any team he has been with. It appears Kansas City will make a run at Shields, as evidenced by a report back in October that the team would offer him a 5 year, $80 million deal. But would this be the best thing for the Royals? Not in my eyes.

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This is not an indictment on Shields or his performance. ‘Big Games James’ did what the Royals wanted him to do; stabilize the rotation, bring leadership to the clubhouse and get Kansas City to the playoffs. Check, Check, and Check. Shields has driven the rest of his rotation mates to reach the 1,000 innings plateau the last two years and even though they didn’t reach that goal, they came close both years. He was a great influence on both Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura, helping them keep their focus and teach them how to be aggressive on the mound but not ‘too aggressive’. As much as I cringe when people bring up ‘character guys’, Shields is one and has shown this team of young players how to win and how to handle pressure situations. I scoffed at most of this when the trade from the Rays happened, but he has done all of these things and more to get this team to the playoffs for the first time since 1985. So there is value in Shields beyond just numbers and these are things that might not even be replaced if(when) he signs elsewhere.

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But is he worth the 5/80 number thrown out there, or even more than that? To me this isn’t even about the numbers as much as the years. James Shields will turn 33 in December and has logged a lot of innings on that arm. A-LOT. In fact, he has accumulated over 1900 innings during the regular season and another 59 in the postseason. He has been fairly lucky injury wise, but it is normally only a matter of time until issues start showing up. If Shields was brought back for 5 years, that means he would be 38(almost 39) by the end of that deal. Can you see him holding up that late in the deal? I can’t. In fact we are already seeing a bit of regression. Over the last few years he has been using his changeup less and less, and even this postseason was mentioned as being more of a “cutter and fastball” pitcher. This isn’t always a bad thing(some think Shields’ changeup has been overrated) but when he doesn’t have a feel for his changeup, he has trouble, as evidenced in Game 1 of the World Series. Shields is a competitor and seems like the type of pitcher who would adjust as time takes away the zip on his fastball and the dip in his changeup. But it’s more probable that Shields will continue to regress and not be even close to the pitcher he is today by the end of a 5 year deal.

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That brings me to a bigger concern, that being the sentimental aspect of this whole scenario. Look, we all loved the run the Royals went on in October. For many it brought out the little kid in us and reminded every one that even though baseball can take you down deep in the depths, it can also lift you to heights you would never imagine possible. But now that the season has ended it’s time to come back down to earth and look at this team from a realistic viewpoint. That means no bringing players back just because they were a part of the “American League Champion Kansas City Royals” and instead looking at the situation on whether that player(s) is a good fit for the team in not only 2015 but beyond. Does 5 years of James Shields really look good for this team? I love the guy as much as the next Royals fan but I also realize that regression is on his doorstep and it probably won’t be pretty. The sentimental factor especially comes into play with Billy Butler, who has been a part of this organization(easy for me to say) since he was drafted by Kansas City in 2004. Butler’s option for 2015 was declined by Kansas City, as his salary would have risen from $8 million a year to $12 million. But there are other factors that the team shouldn’t bring back “Country Breakfast”.

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Maybe the biggest reason for the team to not bring back Butler is the fact that the team has discussed making the DH a rotating position for two years now and it would seem foolish now to change course just because the team could lose a longtime staple of their lineup. I’ve long been a supporter of Butler but unfortunately 2014 was a major downturn for him when it comes to production. Just going off of the stats Butler looks like a guy who has begun his regression at a younger age than most players do and his power especially has slid to a meek 41 total extra bases this past season. Back in 2009 Butler had 51 doubles alone not even counting the 21 home runs he hit that year…and 1 triple. Can’t leave out the triple! Yes, Butler could bounce back and put up numbers comparable to his 2009 and 2010 where his OPS+ was 125 and 134 respectively. Numbers like 2012? Probably not. That was a career year if there ever was one. But he could bounce back.

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But the numbers factor alone shouldn’t decide whether Billy comes back or not. With the team wanting to rotate the DH, that will leave Butler with less at bats and less games to show his worth. He also loves playing out in the field, and the Royals just aren’t good at resting Eric Hosmer(he of the Gold Glove defense) and letting Butler get some reps at the first base. So Butler could come back(and it has been discussed within the organization)but it would be on a lesser salary and less playing time. That doesn’t bode well for a player who needs to pile up better numbers so he can get another big contract before he trots out to that  corn field in the sky(Wait, that makes it sound like Butler will die when he is done playing baseball. Not what I meant. My bad). Baseball players have a fairly short amount of time to make as much money as humanly possible. Butler, soon to be 29, is running out of time. Coming back to the Royals, no matter how much he loves this team and the town, just seems like the equivalent of spinning one’s tires. Personally I would love for Butler to retire a Royal, but I get why he needs to leave, and now makes the most sense. Even if it crushes my son, a huge Billy Butler fan.

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The hardest thing about baseball is that it is a business, and no matter how much joy it can give you, it’s always lingering around to remind you that nothing lasts forever(even cold November rain). Dayton Moore has some tough decisions to make this offseason, especially when it comes to two key elements of a team that ventured to the World Series. James Shields and Billy Butler are two players I have enjoyed watching excel at their craft. But with the Royals being a small market team, they have to be especially intelligent when it comes to structuring a roster that can return them to the playoffs in 2015. With that in mind, it seems like it would be wise to let Shields and Butler go. It might not be what the heart wants, but the brain should be the one making the decisions this winter for Kansas City.

 

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