World Series, Here They Come!

As a longtime Kansas City Royals fan, there has always been a small part of me that worried I would never see my team in the World Series ever again. Sure, I got to see them in 1985, but I was 8 at the time and there are only so many memories of that time that lingers. This latest Royals playoff run has been exciting beyond belief but there was always that question; “Could they really make it back to the World Series?” We no longer have to ask that anymore, as the Royals finished off the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Championship Series, sweeping them in 4 games. The Royals are now headed to the World Series for the 3rd time in franchise history. I’ve been fairly quiet in this space during the last few weeks, not for lack of attention but more that I have been “enjoying the ride”. I don’t know for sure how objective I can be at this point, but I here are a few thoughts as we all get ready to cheer our Royals in the World Series next week.

Pitching and Defense Wins Championships

There is a reason you hear this adage over and over every October; because it is the truth. Very few teams slug their way to a championship. If you want to go deep into the playoffs, build your team around pitching and defense. You can probably add timely hitting and a deep bullpen/bench to this, as there is always a good chance you will be playing in close games in the most important month of the year. I mentioned recently how this is a team tailored for the playoffs and within 8 games this month(yes, I’m counting the Wild Card game that was held on September 30th) they seem to be proving that theory correct. They haven’t been winning with their bats(although those timely hits have been big so far this postseason) as much as with their defense and pitching. Just off the top of your head, how many key defensive grabs can you name within the last few weeks? Just thinking about it and I get up to 15 before even having to pause and think. Insane. Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar are just a few guys who have multiple plays that come to mind and I’m sure I am forgetting even more. Combine this with solid starting pitching and the best trio of relievers in the game(Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland) and you have a team that has to be frustrating for opponents in these tight situations. We all saw glimpses of the team’s strengths during the season, but it really feels like the Royals embraced these strengths late in the year and that has propelled the recent spat of postseason wins. As much as some of us(myself included) disagreed with how this team was built, it has gotten them to the World Series. Obviously, Dayton Moore understood the basis of what makes a championship team; we just should have believed more in the 1980’s style of baseball he was preaching.

Are Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas Fixed?

If you listen to the ‘talking heads’ this postseason you would think that Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have elevated their game and are starting to (finally)live up to their potential when they were drafted years ago. I will say this: both have looked way more focused in October. Moose has been driving the ball with a bit more authority(and not just on soft stuff) and Hosmer’s swing has looked the closest to his rookie year swing than at any time during the last 3 years. In fact, the national media has heavily focused themselves on Hosmer and that pesky word “potential” . If you didn’t know any better, you would think Hosmer was the straw that stirs the Royals drink, not the true leader, Alex Gordon. But are they fixed? That might be going a bit far. I have had exasperated this issue in the past and a small sample size hasn’t really changed my mind on this yet. For the Royals sake you hope they have turned the corner and they will start to shine like we have all wanted them to do since 2011. If they can transfer over their success into 2015 then we could be talking about them being cornerstones for the franchise. This will be a subject to revisit again come May of next year.

Danny Duffy: M.I.A.

One of the more peculiar topics of discussion this month has been the status of pitcher Danny Duffy. Late in the regular season Duffy had a one pitch outing at Yankee Stadium(due to shoulder concerns) and an outing in Chicago where his mechanics were a mess. So is Duffy hurt? Why has he only being pitching from the stretch? For a guy who was probably the most consistent starter for the Royals this year, a year where he showed just how effective(and efficient) he could really be, it seemed odd to see Duffy basically on the outside looking in. You have to feel for a guy who wears his heart on his sleeve and is possibly the most fan-friendly Royal in recent memory. All this success and he is a last resort out of the pen? Luckily the Royals haven’t really needed Duffy during the playoffs, but you wonder how far their concerns go. Obviously he doesn’t feel comfortable pitching from the windup, which will have to be addressed in the spring. But with a World Series in the Royals near future you hope Danny Duffy is allowed to contribute on the field and put an exclamation point on what has been a breakthrough season for the young lefty.

Neddy and Dayton Prove Numbers Wrong

News Bulletin: I am not a fan of Royals GM Dayton Moore and manager Ned Yost. I have railed and have even asked for their dismissals, numerous times. I even said that Yost would never “take the Royals to the promised land”. Obviously, I was wrong about that. Go ahead and give Ned a point there. But the question has been posed to me as of late: has my mind changed about these two since the Royals are headed to the World Series? When it comes to Ned, the answer is no. I still believe he is a poor tactical manager, which makes him the same as about half the managers in the big leagues right now. I also believe his mood affects this team and how they play. When he is loose, they play loose. When he stressed and tight, they play that way. More than anything, I believe the Royals could do better when it comes to the manager position. That being said, he has had an almost flawless postseason so far. Outside of the 6th inning in the Wild Card game(and possibly him not pulling his starters fast enough in Game 1 & 2 of the ALCS), Ned has pushed the right buttons and every decision has come up gold. Honestly, if the man isn’t trying to play the lotto right now then I don’t know when he should. I probably won’t ever be a fan of Yost’s style(the bunting alone drives me mad), but I can give him credit when he has earned it.

Dayton will get a bit more credit from me. I was one of the many who questioned the James Shields trade, as I felt the Royals gave up too much and essentially hated giving up 6 years of Wil Myers for 2 of Shields. But late in August, I started really re-thinking this. Wade Davis was the best reliever in baseball this season and Shields intangibles helped more than I could have ever imagined. Do Duffy and Yordano Ventura grow as much as they did this year if not for Shields guidance? Does the mentality in the clubhouse change without Big Game James leading the way? There is no way to measure his influence on this team but it is obvious that trading for him wasn’t the mistake some of us thought it was. Dayton was the one who focused on defense and pitching, realizing he needed speed for the outfield with the amount of ground they have to cover. He put together a monster of a bullpen and stuck with struggling youngsters that most teams would have jettisoned by now. More than anything else, Dayton put together the team that broke the 29 year drought and got the Royals back to the playoffs. It took him 8 years(and most front offices wouldn’t have lasted that long) but he did it. Kudos to GMDM. It’s not the team most of us would have assembled, but it is the team that is getting ready for the World Series.

This is just a few of the thoughts rolling through my head. I haven’t been able to make much sense of the wild playoff run Kansas City is having, but I can tell you how happy it has made me. A team that most of us wrote off in May has risen like a Phoenix in October and is only 4 wins away from a World Series title. It seems almost appropriate that the Royals have yet to lose this postseason; we die hard Royals fans have seen enough losing to last us a lifetime. The best thing is that when damning the logic, you realize just how fun it has been. This ride has one more stop and hopefully when it is all said and done a second World Series title will make its way to Kauffman Stadium. Dreams can come true, and we are just few more ‘W’s’ away from that parade I’ve been planning for months to become a reality. Only this time I’m 100% serious.

October 16, 2014 0

The Drought Is Over

On Friday night, the 29 year wait ended. On Friday night, the Kansas City Royals clinched a spot in the 2014 playoffs, assuring themselves of at least a Wild Card spot when the postseason starts next week. As most know, the Royals hadn’t reached the playoffs since the won the World Series back in 1985. During that span, anyone associated with the Royals, whether it be players, coaches, broadcasters, front office personnel, vendors and even fans have felt the weight of this playoff drought. It had almost gotten to the point to where that became the team’s defining talking point, not anything that was actually going on out on the field or within the organization. I’ve had a little over 24 hours to think about this and what this means personally to me. Like a lot of people, a hefty weight has been lifted off of everyone’s shoulders.

I immediately thought of all the people involved within the organization who had been around forever. People like Denny Matthews, who has been with the team since the beginning and has dealt with all the highs and lows. I made sure Friday night that I was listening to Denny’s call, if for no other reason than it is comfortable listening to him. Art Stewart came to mind, the long time Royals scout and even guys like Mike Swanson, VP of broadcasting, who has had a couple tours of duty with Kansas City, going all the way back to the 1970’s. I thought of how happy guys like George Brett, Mike Sweeney and Jeff Montgomery would be, former players who were still around and working within the organization. If anyone understood how it was for us fans, it would be these folks, who have endured just as much heartache as we have.

I also thought of former Royals no longer with us. Dick Howser came to mind, as he was the last man to take the Royals to the postseason. Howser came down with brain cancer into the 1986 season and passed away in June of 1987. Dan Quisenberry and Paul Splittorff both came to mind as well, longtime Royals who also lost their battles with cancer. Former Royals announcer Fred White passed away in May of 2013 and if ever there was a good trooper for the organization, it was Fred. White was still with the organization when he passed away and no one would have loved seeing the Royals celebrate a playoff berth like Fred White. There are probably others I have forgotten about, all who would have loved this moment.It goes to show how much this team meant to so many different people.

I then thought of my Grandma Thornton. Craig Brown has a great read about him watching games with his Grandfather and my story is somewhat like that. When I first got interested in baseball around 1984, I would go listen to Royals games at my Grandma’s, as we would listen to Denny and Fred call the play by play on the radio. She would tell me stories about growing up listening to the Yankees as that was the only team in the area that stations would broadcast, since there was no local team yet. Listening on the radio made you picture the action in your head, as Denny and Fred would weave their words to give us an idea of what was happening on the diamond. I fell in love with baseball and shared that with my Grandma for many years. Once the Royals started being on television more we would watch the games and talk about what was happening. I sometimes wish I could go back to then, when I was more innocent and just watched the game without questioning managerial tactics or analyze statistics like I do today. I think I was one of Grandma’s favorites(easy for me to say!) and part of that reason was we both loved this game. Before she got sick she gave me some of her baseball memoribilia she had purchased over the years, as she wanted me to have them. At the time I felt weird about it, since she wasn’t even sick at that point, but I know now that she wanted me to have these items and was afraid I wouldn’t end up with them if it got into the hands of other family members. I still remember her sternly telling me I was to take them and this wasn’t up for conversation. I took them, even if it was reluctantly, and the baseball signed by all the 1990 Royals still sits on a shelf in my bedroom, along with other signed balls. I’m sure if she was still around she would have loved seeing the Royals in the playoffs, which puts a smile on my face every time I think about it.

Lastly, I thought of Dayton Moore. Over the last few years I have been very vocal about whenever I felt Moore had madea move I felt was less than great. Most of the time it was earned, and when a General Manager is in charge as long as Dayton has been and not produced a playoff team it is only natural to question whether or not he is suited for the job. I still am not the biggest fan of him, but I will give credit where credit is due; Dayton did it. He assembled a team that got the Royals to the playoffs. I don’t agree with how he built the team and there will still be a few doubts about “the trade”(and I’m sure it will get brought up again in the future) but for now none of that matters. All that matters is that Dayton kept his word and got this team to posteason play. For that I will give him a “thank you, Dayton” and hope that this will just be the first of many appearances. Adding Jason Vargas has helped this team in 2014, but credit also must go to all the players drafted, signed and developed during his tenure. Sure, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are still question marks, but look at guys like Salvador Perez and Danny Duffy as two guys that have been huge for this team. Look at the profits of the Zack Greinke trade, as Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain are regulars in the lineup(and Jake Odorizzi helped bring in James Shields and Wade Davis). Even the bullpen has Moore’s fingerprints on this team, as both Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera were developed in the Royals organization. Moore has made some questionable moves over the years and probably will again in the future, but for now he backed up what he promised, and that is what matters in the present.

I have been critical of this organization in the past, and I will again in the future. It’s not out of spite or to complain, it’s out of love. I love this team, and I love all the joy that being a Royals fan has given me over the years and I always want them to succeed. Sure, there have been huge bumps in the road, but it has made this season even more special. On Friday night I sat there and thought about all the things I love about this team and this game and I am so glad I stuck with them. Sure, the Royals might play the wild card game on Tuesday and lose, and just like that it will be over. Or they will keep playing. And keep playing. Either way, the Royals have done what many of us weren’t for sure they could do, and that is break the drought. For that, I am perfectly fine with being wrong about this team. I bleed Royal blue and will till the day I die; let’s make this a yearly thing now, boys!

September 28, 2014 0

A Team Tailored for the Playoffs

As the Kansas City Royals inch closer and closer to their first postseason berth since 1985, it becomes harder and harder to not play out scenario’s in your head. What if they win a Wild Card spot? What will the starting rotation look like? Who do you leave off the playoff roster? These might all seem like minor details, but for us Royals fans it is foreign territory. Hey, we’ve spent close to 30 years just asking for a game that really matters; these questions seem to matter more to us than they should. With all that said there are a few things that not only make me feel confident that we could not only be witnessing a number of playoff games but that this team could be a great fit for what is headed their way.

Obviously the preference for most of us is for Kansas City to win the American League Central, as the Royals would avoid the one game playoff that is the wild card. Winning a wild card is still playoffs, but there is always the possibility that the Royals have an off night and that would leave them one and done. Also, unless the Royals finish above or tied with Oakland in the Wild Card race they will be playing that game on the road. The thought of only getting one playoff game and not getting October baseball at ‘The K’ saddens me in ways you don’t even know. Like watching the end of Toy Story 3. I’m not alone on that, right? Anyway, there has been lots of discussion on whether the Royals playing in one game would be satisfying enough, and I can easily see why one game would not be enough. Either way, playoffs are playoffs, whether you play 1 game or 21. Bottom line is that the Royals need to reach the Division Series for any of the following points to even matter.

There are normally three key things stressed for a team to go deep into the playoffs: pitching, defense and timely hitting. The good thing is the Royals are good for at least two of those, with the third coming and going. Let’s start with the pitching. This has been one of the bigger factors in the Royals success this year and without it we probably aren’t even talking playoffs right now. It will be interesting to see if the Royals will go with a 3 or a 4 man rotation to start out. I would imagine the top three goes James Shields, Danny Duffy, and Jeremy Guthrie. I would like to think Yordano Ventura would be the third rather than Guthrie, but my gut tells me they won’t want to push him real hard, as he has already pitched the most innings in one season of his career(179.0 as we speak). You also have to wonder where Jason Vargas is in this conversation, as he has had a really good season but in his last 7 starts he has a 5.89 ERA/1.66 WHIP and Kansas City has lost 6 of his those starts. Since I can’t see either Guthrie or Vargas being a part of the bullpen(unless they are a long reliever, and sweet baby Jesus, let’s hope we don’t need one of those) they will probably either start or not be on the playoff roster. This will lead to some interesting dilemmas for Royals management, as they will want to get the most out of their rotation without killing Ventura’s arm or using a starter who is regressing(I’m staring at you, Vargas!).

But it’s not just the starters that will guide this team in October. The Royals bullpen has been a major force over the last few years and this year has added an element of dominance to the late innings. With Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland you are seeing a back portion of the pen who will slow down the best of offenses. Three guys with upper 90’s heat, nasty off-speed pitches and the ability to make a Royals game be over if they are leading after 6 innings. Add in the likes of Jason Frasor, Brandon Finnegan(who was drafted by Kansas City this summer) and just for the hell of it Francisley Bueno and Louis Coleman and you have the making of a playoff caliber pen. It will be interesting to see if Aaron Crow makes this squad, as obviously manager Ned Yost still thinks fondly of him, despite his disappointing season where inherited runners abound and velocity decreases. Add in the possibility of Ventura being in the bullpen and you could make the case that Kansas City will make opposing teams want to strike early or pay for it when HDH enter the game.

Defense is also a major plus for Kansas City and something that will help them in their hunt for gold. This has been about a solid of a unit as the Royals have had in a very long time, although there have been a few hiccups these last few weeks. For the Royals to play deep into October they need the ‘D’ to step up and return to their earlier levels of excellence. It shouldn’t be hard to muster, but this team has also showed the penchant to let pressure affect their play on the field.

The timely hitting is the only thing that could be a worry. The Royals are hitting at a .270 with runners in scoring position, which is in the top 5 in baseball this season. It does drop to .214 with 2 outs in the inning, which lowers them to the middle of the pack in both leagues. They are also doing well when they get past the 7th inning, hitting at a .252 clip which is good enough for 6th in all of baseball. So this is a team that can hit and hit in the clutch if needed. But if you are a Royals fan you know how streaky they can be as well. One minute this team looks like an offensive juggernaut, the next you wonder if even Kent Murphy or Domingo Ayala(Google them; go ahead) could hit better than Kansas City’s hitters. They also aren’t a team that takes a lot of pitchers, so it is rare when you see them work a count and attempt to wear a pitcher down. Surprisingly they don’t strike out much either, although this means a lot of ground balls that don’t get past the infield. There is also a reliance on bunting when they start to struggle, which can be both good and bad. Letting a speedy player bunt early in the game for a hit? Fine by me, although I would prefer they hit. Sacrifice in the first 6 innings? Awful and something the Royals are notorious for doing. More than anything this team needs to hit in the clutch and attempt to be moderately consistent to reach the next level. I hope this can happen, but if there is anything I worry about it is this very issue that has hampering the team for the last couple seasons. Bottom line, this is a team of hackers who have both good and bad nights.

Oh, there is one more positive that will be amplified in October; speed. The Royals are almost a team that harkens back to the 80’s, one built on speed, defense and pitching. The Royals like to flaunt this speed whenever possible, especially with both Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore on the bench for late inning heroics. This is a team that needs to use that speed to their advantage when they get to the postseason, if for no reason than that it is a plus for the team. This is a team full of speedy guys(Dyson, Gore, Cain, Aoki) and guys who are good base runners(Gordon, Escobar). If the offense is struggling? Use your speed by stealing bases and utilize the hit and run. The Royals aren’t a team that can bunch up a few hits and then expect a big three run bomb, so causing some damage on the basepaths would seem to be a solid game plan. I’m not saying do this all the time, and obviously I think they need to be smart about when they do take advantage of the speed, but there are times that this team strands runners on base, runners that could be in motion. Making opposing pitchers and defenses feel uneasy should be a regular part of Kansas City’s offense this October and one that could gain them a slight advantage.

Look, there are areas of concern when it comes to this Royals team, like the much maligned offense, a non-threatening bench or Ned Yost’s tactical decisions. All could cost this team in the playoffs. In fact the ideal scenario for the Royals would be for them to get a lead by the 6th inning and then let Yost throw HDH out there for the last 3 innings. The less Yost has to manage, the better. But putting that aside, there are many teams in the American League who have already said they don’t want to play Kansas City in postseason play because of the way they are built. This is a Royals team that is used to playing in low scoring affairs and have shown a penchant to be a team that doesn’t give up late in the contest. So as much as this Royals team isn’t the team you or I would have built and despite logic telling us they shouldn’t have gotten this far with what they have, they are here. Watch out American League playoff teams; the Kansas City Royals are coming no matter how unorthodox or old school their game plan is.

September 25, 2014 0

It’s Not Over Yet

Wow! That’s all I can really say after the amazing come from behind victory the Kansas City Royals pulled off on Monday night against the Chicago White Sox. For 7 innings the Royals looked like a team that was feeling the pressure of contending. Hell, the last week this Royals team has looked like a team feeling the pressure, as they have played about as tight as a team collectively could play. So tight in fact that Ferris Bueller could describe it perfectly, just change Cameron to the Royals:

So only 12 games remain in the regular season(13 if you count the game against Cleveland from last month that will be resumed with the Royals behind in the 10th inning) with the Royals holding the second Wild Card in the American League and 1.5 games behind Detroit in the American League Central. So what does this team need to do to help assure they reach postseason?

1) Loosen Up

I briefly touched on this a moment ago, but this very well might be the most important thing these players can do over the next few weeks. By Sunday Kansas City had committed 20 errors over the previous 14 games. That is an astronomical number for a team that has been one of the best defensive units in the big leagues over the last two seasons. If those numbers weren’t glaring enough, they have looked just as tight on offense. Over the last 14 games this team is hitting a lowly .233 with an OBP of .286, a slugging percentage of .325 and a wRC+ of 71(when league median is in the upper 90’s). Obviously the walk percentage is down as well, but that is the norm for this Royals team. Almost every facet of their game has played during this time span like they feel all of the pressure on their backs, and that causes teams to make mistakes and struggle in regular situations. Hopefully last night’s walk off win will loosen the team up and they can return to the style of play they incorporated for the greater part of August.

2) Continue to Provide Marvelous Pitching

The one thing that has been ‘dead on’ the last few weeks is the starting pitching. James Shields(before last night) had 22.1 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 18 SO, 2 BB, 0.40 ERA over his previous three starts. Jeremy Guthrie(who has up and down over the last few months) threw a gem on Saturday night, giving up only 3 hits, 1 run and 1 walk over 8 innings. Yordano Ventura and Jason Vargas have been steady for the most part over the last few weeks and hopefully can continue that. The only real question mark with the starters is Danny Duffy. Duffy came out of his start on September 6th against the Yankees after only one pitch because of shoulder stiffness. For the Royals to reach the postseason(and succeed there) they need Duffy to be healthy and on top his game. As of right now the plan is for Duffy to pitch later this week and hopefully will return to form in no time. If this happens the Royals will increase their chances of getting a spot in the playoffs and solidify the rest of the rotation.

3) Smart Lineup Construction

This isn’t always an issue, but when the team is slumping it seems the weaknesses in the lineups that manager Ned Yost puts together are glaring. Take for instance continuing to bat Omar Infante in the second hole. Up until this weekend this was going on despite him hitting just .232 in the second half of the season with an OBP of .258. Most analysts and fans recognized this problem yet Yost insisted on him staying in that spot. Same goes for Salvador Perez, who was holding steady in the middle of the order despite hitting just .243 over the last month and not taking a walk since July. If those weren’t bad enough, once Eric Hosmer got off the DL, Billy Butler got about as much playing time as the Royals bat boy, this in spite of him hitting exceptionally well during Hosmer’s absence. The Royals don’t have a lot of pop in their lineup, so a must for them is to have a lineup that plays to their strengths. If that means batting Infante and Perez lower in the order, you do that. If that means picking and choosing when to play Butler(and [gasp] even sit Hosmer), then you do that. The Royals main weakness is their offense, so to put together a lineup that doesn’t play to their strengths, that is already putting this team in the hole. Yost needs to avoid this the next few weeks and go with the hot hand…and not just say that you are going with the hot hand even if you are not. That leads us to the next point…

4) Keep ‘Nervous Ned’ to a Minimum

I don’t want to spend a lot of time on this, since I have covered this ad nauseum over the last three years. But for those new to the party, Ned Yost does not handle adversity well. It has been shown time and time again, and it has reared it’s ugly head the last few weeks. Doesn’t matter if it is batting orders, or handling the relievers or his defined roles on the team; Yost can’t think outside of the box. The best thing for this Royals team is to score runs early, let the starters go at least 6 innings and then Yost can go to Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland in the 7th, 8th and 9th. The least amount of thinking for Yost, the better. Yost was fired around this exact time back in 2008 for Milwaukee for doing the same things he is doing now. If they can keep ‘Nervous Ned’ to a minimum, then the Royals have a chance to play October baseball for the first time in 29 years.

There is not much time left in the season so each game is going to feel like a pressure cooker until the Royals clinch a spot. Most of us Royals fans have never felt this kind of stress and it has made us all a bit on edge. If the Royals can do those 4 things listed above, they will defy the odds and make their first playoff appearance since 1985. If they aren’t able to keep those items in check, it could make for a very long winter. This is a team that has the talent to succeed, but there is always the human factor around the corner and it doesn’t follow any certain pattern. That human factor can also elevate a team and play above their talent. Right now the human factor has us all on pins and needles.

September 16, 2014 0

The Turnaround of Danny Duffy

It has not been the smoothest of rides to get where Danny Duffy is at this moment. If you can think of possible derailments for a player to be a consistent performer in the big leagues, Duffy has probably had it. Tommy John Surgery? Check. Left baseball for awhile for personal reasons? Check. Struggle with pitch efficiency? Check. The word potential has been floated around for years now around Duffy, but headed into this 2014 season it seemed that might be all we saw of him. But a few twists and turns(and an injury to the lovable Bruce Chen) have left Duffy in the brightest of spots; one of the best starters in the Kansas City Royals rotation this year.

The season didn’t start out this year all sunshine and lollipops for Duffy, though. I remember watching a Spring Training game against the Rangers where he was all over the place with his location, which forced him to throw a few pitches down the heart of the plate. This lead to a couple of homers and a big inning for Texas. Outings like this lead the Royals to switch Duffy to the bullpen to start the year, where the thought was that he could harness his nasty stuff(plus fastball with late tail on it, sharp 12-to-6 curveball and a changeup over 10 mph slower than his fastball) and let it all hang out. It worked for awhile, but within a span of a week Duffy had a bad outing in Baltimore and then a few days later he faced two Toronto batters, hitting one and walking the other. None of his pitches were near the strike zone and he didn’t look comfortable on the mound. It made me make this observation:

Duffy looked lost tonight. That is not a good sign for his progress. His last two outings have been nightmares. #Royals

— Sean Thornton (@SeanThornton5) May 1, 2014

Whoops! In my defense, 1) it was just an observation and 2) he just didn’t look like himself on the mound. I wasn’t implying that he was going to be the next Rick Ankiel or Steve Blass, but I won’t lie: the thought crossed my mind. This also happened the week that Bruce Chen went on the disabled list, which meant the Royals needed a starter to take his place that weekend. I was almost certain it wouldn’t be Duffy and was worried about what would happen if it was.

Nothing spectacular happened that outing, but my concerns did go away and showed whatever I saw earlier in the week was unfounded. Duffy pitched what has been a normal outing for him the last few years, as he threw 4 innings, giving up 2 hits and 1 run while striking out 2 and walking 4 against the Tigers. Duffy threw 75 pitches in those four innings, which at that point was average for him, as his pitch efficiency has always been the big concern. But then…then there was the outing against Baltimore. Duffy was perfect for 20 batters and pitched into the eighth inning, giving up only two hits. THIS was the Duffy that everyone envisioned as he was coming up through Kansas City’s farm system. Since that start Duffy has been one of the most consistent starters in the Royals rotation, notwithstanding a hiccup here and there. So what is Duffy doing differently?

The obvious answer here is that Duffy has learned how to use the spectacular Royals defense to his advantage and pitch more to contact rather than trying to strike everyone out. This is backed up by a lower strikeout rate(19.2%) and a higher balls in play percentage, which is up 5 percent(28.0%) . Obviously this has helped his pitch count a ton and led to him being able to last longer in the game than normal. His walk rate(10.0%) is also down, about 3.5 percent from last year and the lowest of his major league career. It also appears as if Duffy is inducing more ground balls than ever before in his career, as his ground outs to air outs ratio is at 0.55.

The other thing that Duffy is doing better than ever is pitching ahead in the count. We’ve already seen this year how that has helped teammate Jason Vargas and it appears to have helped just as much for Duffy. His first pitch strike percentage is the highest it has ever been(58.3%), as is the amount of 0-2 counts he has achieved(28.8%). What seems the oddest fun stat for Duffy is the amount of strikeouts looking, which is sitting at 46.2% this year, almost twenty points higher than his previous high last year of 27.3%. Duffy over his career has had issues with not being able to finish batters off, which leads to numerous balls fouled off and a raise in his pitch count. This year he seems to be fooling batters more often and they don’t appear to be locked in on what Duffy will throw next.

To me, the best part of Duffy’s game this year are the pitch counts. It has been obvious for a very long time that for him to be a major contributor for Kansas City Duffy would have to be a more efficient pitcher. This year he is doing that, as he is averaging 92 pitches per start, which isn’t much less than his career average. But what has changed is his innings pitched per start, which is up to 5.9 compared to last year’s 4.9 and 2012’s 4.6. So it’s obvious that he is throwing the same amount of pitches, just spread out longer, which is a great thing. So far this year Duffy has had one game where he threw under 80 pitches(which would have been his first start after leaving the bullpen), 6 games throwing between 80-99 pitches, and 3 games throwing between 100-119 pitches. With the way Duffy has been throwing, he has earned more faith from the Royals coaching staff and has been allowed to go longer in his games. That is nothing but positive for a team who will need him down the stretch if they are to be serious contenders.

So after all this time and some losing faith(like myself), Danny Duffy has found himself in a position where he could be a difference maker this September for a playoff hopeful like Kansas City. At one time some of us debated whether Duffy should be a starter or pitch out of the pen. It now appears as if Duffy will be a fixture in the Royals rotation for years to come, barring an injury. His new found success couldn’t come to a better guy; the Royals need more guys who make comments like “bury me a Royal”. It proves once again that efficiency is the key to a pitcher’s success.

June 27, 2014 0

Five Future Royals to Keep an Eye On

Most of us Kansas City Royals fans have gotten used to a new prospect being called up over the last few years and bring excitement to the team(at least at first). Just within the last three years we’ve seen the debuts of Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. The Royals are a small market franchise, so one of the things they will constantly have to do is develop homegrown talent and keep a steady stream of them running through their farm system. With that in mind, I thought I would give you a glimpse of a few of those prospects. Now, I won’t mention Kyle Zimmer(pictured above) and Adalberto Mondesi, Jr., probably the two top prospects in the organization. Both are discussed fairly often and look to be major cogs in the Royals machines in the near future. Instead, let’s look at some of the other prospects that haven’t been hyped nearly as much.

Sugar Ray Marimon

Sugar Ray Marimon isn’t just a guy with a cool name(although I will fess up to loving the name). Marimon isn’t rated as a top level prospect, as he is 26 years old(27 in September) and has been very average with most of his pitches. A full scouting report can be found here, and most of it reads that Marimon is questionable as to if we will even see him in a Royals uniform. Marimon has an average fastball(88-93 mph), a curve that has a sharp break(but he hasn’t been able to command it) and a change-up that could be pretty good but he seems to prefer the curve being his out pitch. To this point Marimon has been a starter, so one wonders if is moved to the bullpen he will add a few ticks to the fastball, improve on the curve and change and he could be a steady arm in the pen. There is quite a difference in velocity between his fastball and his two other pitches, so if he can show some improvement he could bump up to a bullpen job in the ‘bigs’. Right now Sugar Ray is in AAA Omaha for Kansas City so there is only more step to take to the big leagues. He also is one of the few prospects at AAA right now which shows that most of the Royals prospects are still a few years away. Marimon might be a long shot, but I think he could improve on a few things and make a shift to the pen he would be a valued arm. He could be nothing of note or a surprise for the Royals; either way, time is running out for the man they call Sugar Ray.

Jorge Bonifacio

If the name Jorge Bonifacio sounds familiar, it might be because he is the younger brother of former Royal Emilio Bonifacio. Or it could be because he is rated as one of the top prospects in the Royals farm system. Bonifacio is thought so highly of that it was said around the time of the Wil Myers trade that the organization had Bonifacio “rated higher” long-term than Myers. I’m still wrapping my head around that one. Here is what John Sickels of SB Nation had to say about Jorge:

Hit combined .298/.372/.429 at three levels with a good finish in Double-A. Hasn’t developed his power yet but hits for average, makes decent contact, has a good arm, and is just 20 years old. I think he’s a year away.

Obviously he has dealt with issues as well early in his career, including a broken bone in his hand last year, which can sap your power. His numbers were encouraging enough for Kansas City to bump him up to AA Northwest Arkansas late in the year, where he held his own. His body frame is an issue(or more bluntly, his weight) to at least keep an eye, but scouts don’t seem too worried about and continue to say that he should develop power as he goes along. The hope is that Jorge is ready to man RF for the Royals no later than 2016. At the least he looks like he would be a solid corner outfielder who can handle the bat quite well. Who knows if he will rival Myers, but the Royals don’t need him to. They will just need him to be a solid major league outfielder. That would be an improvement over the last few men who have roamed right field at Kauffman Stadium.

Christian Binford

Christian Binford is another young arm in Kansas City’s system that is currently pitching for the Wilmington Blue Rocks of the Carolina League(A Ball). Binford was drafted in 2011 by the Royals has slowly been moving his way up the ladder in the lower portions of the minors. Binford has a very average fastball(sitting in the low 90’s) but that wasn’t what Paden Bennett at Royal Revival liked about Binford:

The thing that stands out to me about Binford is his exceptional command. Command for a young pitcher is a very valuable skill to have and Binford has it. He also keeps the ball in the ballpark with a career HR/9 of just 0.41. You put his command and keeping the ball in the ballpark together and you have something to be excited about.

A full scouting report on Binford can be found here and almost universally the thought is that Binford is on the rise and could see his velocity increase, as he is just a little over a year removed from the famed Tommy John Surgery. Binford seems like he is learning the art of pitching at an early age, which is a great sign for the Royals. Between his BB rate, his precision location and still a chance at more upside, it’s easy to see how Binford has moved into Baseball America’s top ten prospects for Kansas City. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Binford in Northwest Arkansas before the year is out.

Lane Adams

Lane Adams is the 2013 George Brett Hitter of the Year, which goes to Kansas City’s top hitter in their farm system. Adams is an intriguing case, as you can tell from what mlbprospectwatch.com had to say at the end of this past season:

Adams is a man without a place. He’s played more center field than on the corners in his career, but he’s been spending more time in left and right as he gets older and moves up. He doesn’t have the power to be a productive corner outfielder, and while he has good speed, he doesn’t get on base quite enough to use it effectively, although his walk rate did jump up this season. He has the makings of a tweener, but he can do enough things right that he could carve out a niche for himself.

The thing that kept popping up to me while reading that was “wow, that reads a lot like David Lough…who was a lot like David DeJesus…who turned out to be a really solid major leaguer”. No idea if that will ever happen for Adams, especially since reviews are quite split on his chances, especially since he would be considered an older prospect at 24 years old. There are concerns about his ability to make contact, as mentioned here by Joe Cox of Royal Revival:

The caveat in all his skills has been his inability to make contact at each and every level, which will not work for his skills at higher levels. In 2014, it is likely Adams will get a good chunk of his at bats in AA. I realize I have made this comment about quite a few of the prospects on this list, but this outfielder needs to make more contact to have a legitimate chance to make it as a role player in the big leagues

Although Nichoals Ian Allen did throw some positive Adams way:

There is less overall upside to Lane Adams than some of the younger outfielders in the system. The thing that excited me most about Adams is his ability to steal bases. Adams has 73 stolen bases as a professional, and is successful 82% of the time. He was 15-of-15 with Northwest Arkansas. The Royals like him and he will continue to be given opportunities to improve his stock – beginning with big league Spring Training in 2014. From there, it is likely he will spend the season in NW Arkansas and Omaha.

Adams won’t be a prospect at the level of Bonifacio or Myers, but there is always something to be said for guys who does a lot of things good and one thing(speed) great. We will probably start seeing the winds of change in the Royals outfield starting next year, and it’s possible we could see Adams name pop up as a guy getting playing time.

Miguel Almonte

There is no prospect in the Royals system that has me more excited than Miguel Almonte. Almonte has jumped up most prospects lists and looks to have a higher ceiling than originally thought, as prospect361.com discussed at the end of last year:

When Almonte signed with the Royals out of the Dominican Republic in 2010 for $25,000, I doubt the Royals projected him to be one of their top prospects three years later. At 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, Almonte is not your prototypical physical pitcher but has an arsenal that features a 92-94 MPH fastball that can touch the mid-90’s, two breaking pitches (with the curve ball starting to flash well above average), and his money pitch – a plus change-up that he commands with ease.

Add a few MPH’s on his fastball and that reads a lot like Yordano Ventura. He also doesn’t seem to be someone who looks like an injury waiting to happen:

His arm action is very clean as he throws with ease. He has very good momentum to the plate which gives his fastball that much more life. The balance and posture could be improved but overall the mechanics are matching the performance numbers he is posting.

Almonte has gone from a guy who would be a good major league reliever to possibly as high as a number two starter. Landon Adams at Royal Revival agrees on the Almonte love:

When it comes to Almonte the Royals have a seriously advanced pitcher considering the fact that he has logged just 130 innings in full season baseball. Almonte has shown excellent command. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and his changeup was called the best in the system by Baseball America. At this point he feels like a safe bet to reach his mid-rotation potential (by pitching prospect standards) and could feature even higher if he can develop a quality third offering.

Sentiments are pretty much agreed by Dan Ware:

Almonte has flourished through the system, and won’t turn 21 until April. He has a fastball that stays in the 91-93 mph range, but can hit 96 mph. His changeup, ranked the best in the Royals’ system, sits around 82-86 mph, which is a solid difference in velocity compared to the heater. What impresses scouts is the repition of his mechanics and his ability to keep his pitches low in the zone, which shows in his solid groundball rate of 45% and BB rate of 6.3%.

We Royals fans have seen very few top pitching prospects over the past twenty years develop into top arms, but with Ventura, Zimmer and now possibly Almonte, there is reason for optimism in the Royals pitching prospects in the not-so-faraway future.

That is just a taste of some Royals that are coming down the pipeline. There is still a chance that none of these guys could be factors, or all of them. What we do know is that the Royals have talent in the farm system and that is without me even mentioning guys like Jason Adam, Cheslor Cuthbert or Hunter Dozier. These are always fun to write, so there is always a chance a look to the future will happen again down the road. Now is as good a time to dream as any.

May 8, 2014 0

The Royals Rollercoaster Continues

Four days into the second month of the baseball season and I still feel like I don’t fully have a grasp on this Kansas City Royals team. Is it the team that is in the bottom portion of almost all offensive stats? Probably not. Is it the team that is in the top layer of most pitching stats? Possibly. Is it the same stellar defensive team we saw last year? Yes, yes it is. After twenty nine games, the Royals have one of the oddest stats I ever remember seeing in baseball history. When they score four or more runs, they are undefeated(14-0); meanwhile, they have yet to win a ballgame while scoring three or less runs(0-15). There is no way this holds up all season, but the fact it has over a month of play is just peculiar. With that in mind, let’s look at some other notes of interest rolling around my dome(get out of my dome!), starting with the offense.

Looking at the Royals offensive stats two things come to mind: one, these are sad, sad numbers and two, there is no way this holds up all season–right? The worst are the power numbers: last in homers, last in slugging percentage and next to last in total bases. The young group of Royals bats have been living off of potential for close to three years now, so we are to a point where either they start producing or someone else is given the chance to take their spot. I have to believe at the least that guys like Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon will raise their power numbers and at least get the Royals to a halfway respectable level. The problem lies in the fact that the Royals offense has been fairly anemic for a few years now and no matter how much faith is thrown their way, the runs just aren’t there. I wish the answer is just to wait and the batters will come around, but I’m starting to wonder if maybe the ceiling given to a few of these hitters are just unattainable at this point.

Last night Danny Duffy made his first start of the season and he pitched a very Danny Duffy like game. I was actually pleased by that since earlier in the week against Toronto it looked to me like he was lost out on the mound. That night Duffy was called on in relief and hit Jose Bautista then turned around and walked the next guy on five pitches before being lifted after only two batters. Just a few days before that he had an awful outing in relief in Baltimore that cost the Royals the game. So after those two outings it felt good to know I was wrong and that Duffy was the same pitcher. Unfortunately that also means that he still is a pitcher with great stuff who doesn’t pitch efficiently. Outside of a great relief outing in Houston that saw him throw strikes and keep batters off-balance, Duffy still looks like a pitcher who has never learned how to let his defense help him out. There was hope that a move to the bullpen would help some of that and it still might. But if last night was any indication, Duffy hasn’t changed his colors. He was already on a75-85 pitch count and threw over 20 pitches in just the first inning. There is still time for Duffy to be a vital cog in the bullpen for Kansas City, but I’m really starting to believe that he just isn’t suited to be a starter, no matter how badly the Royals need him there. Royals officials have often referred to Duffy as being a “bull in a china shop” when out on the mound, but his ferocity and competitiveness will all be for naught if he can’t pitch more efficient. It’s still early to give up on him, but he isn’t quieting any critics with his pitch counts so far this season.

If I learned anything last year, it was proper perspective on a full baseball season. I know many of us, myself included, thought the Royals were done after the horrid May they had. In fact, I think I counted 3-4 times during the season where I thought they were completely out of it and an afterthought. Instead, this team made it interesting all the way to the final week of the season. It’s been nice this season to keep that in the back of my head and realize just how much baseball is left to be played. We are just about 18% through the season and despite some major concerns, there is no reason to think they can’t be in a wild card spot come September. At the moment Kansas City is only four games behind Detroit in the American League Central, which is obviously more than reachable. I was listening to the Royals postgame show on Friday night driving back from the game and I thought the host, Josh Vernier, made some great thoughts that those of us who are diehard baseball fans would be wise to keep in the back of our minds. Vernier talked about how baseball is a game where one game can turn your luck around and as long as there are still games being played then you have a chance. He also pointed out(wisely, I must say) that baseball makes even the smartest of us look dumb by it’s ever changing results. A guy can be hitting .156(like let’s say Mike Moustakas) but can be the hero on any given day. Or his luck could turn around and within a few weeks could be hitting one hundred points higher. The point being in all of this that what might look dark and gloomy now could be a giant ray of sunshine in a short amount of time. A losing team can be winning in no time and that struggling player could be your best player in very short order. I think it would be smart if we as fans remembered that more often rather than just pointing out what is wrong, myself included.

So buckle in folks. I have a feeling this rollercoaster isn’t ready to get off of the tracks. There are things for the Royals to work on but by no means is this year a wash already. My best advice is to sit back, relax and try to enjoy the ride as much as you can. Hopefully when June rolls around we are in a tug-of-war with Detroit for top spot in the Central. Hey, it could happen. At this point, anything can happen.

May 4, 2014 0

All Righty Then

Back in 2009, we witnessed one of the best pitching seasons (if not the best) in Royals history. That year, Zack Greinke showed everyone just how talented he really was, winning the American League Cy Young award and posting numbers that are few and far between. Since then, the Royals have done a poor job of producing homegrown starting pitching, with Danny Duffy being the most successful (and he is now in the bullpen). So it should come to no one’s surprise that Royals fans are elated about the prospects of young flamethrower Yordano Ventura.

Ventura combines an electric fastball that reaches triple digits with an improving curve and a change-up. Anyone who has followed baseball for awhile realizes that just because you can throw hard doesn’t guarantee success but if you learn how to pitch (not throw), you have a chance for a long career. Ventura is good enough that there is already talk that when James Shields leaves after the season for free agency that Ventura will slide in and take over the role of ‘Ace’. Yes, it is ironic that he could be slotted in that role when he has already been given the nickname, as an ode to the classic Jim Carrey movie. So how does a 22 year old rookie get anointed savior of the Royals starting rotation with only four major league starts under his belt? It’s not just the blazing fastball or the cool nickname. No, it’s the ability to pitch to his strengths.

In Spring Training, Ventura had outings where his curve was at its knee-buckling best. So he used it more than he normally would. This past week, during his first start of the 2014 campaign, Ventura didn’t have a good feel on his curve. So instead of continuing to try something that wasn’t working, he used his change-up more and made the Rays look completely lost at the plate. Ventura is already picking up the nuances of pitching that many guys don’t learn until their late 20’s. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why so many are predicting such a high ceiling for him. But there are concerns.

Ventura is very small, especially for a guy who throws as hard as he does. In the past, many pitchers who throw that hard with such a small frame end up hurting their arms and shortening their careers. There are exceptions, as future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez easily comes to mind. There is also worry about pushing him too hard, too soon. Last season Ventura pitched the most innings of his career, a combined 150 innings between the minors and majors. The Royals have said they won’t put an innings limit on him, but don’t be surprised if he is sometimes taken out of games in the 6th inning, if anything to save his arm for later in the year. These things are concerns, but not anything that can’t be overcome.

As long as the Royals and Ventura are smart, the team has a chance of producing a pitching talent to rival classic Royals like Greinke, Bret Saberhagen, Kevin Appier and Steve Busby. That is pretty nice company for a 22 year old ‘kid’. At this point, the sky’s the limit for ‘Ace’ Ventura.

April 13, 2014 0

The Duffy Debate

When Spring Training started last month, Danny Duffy looked to have a good shot of making the Kansas City Royals rotation. Early on it seemed as if Duffy had an inside shot at being the team’s fifth starter. Then Yordano Ventura came in and embarassed batters as if they had bullied him as a kid(except for Eric Sogard). So with Ventura locking up a rotation spot, that now leaves Duffy on the outside looking in. Originally it looked as if Duffy would go to AAA Omaha to start the year, but word trickled out this week that the team was seriously thinking of putting Duffy in the bullpen. Now it appears as if Duffy will in fact be in the pen, as the Royals feel nothing will get accomplished for him in Omaha. With that said, is this the best thing for Danny Duffy, the pitcher?

When the idea was first floated around, I will admit to being highly intrigued. Duffy has electric stuff, including a mid-90’s fastball with a change, sinker and curveball. Duffy’s biggest challenge since he made it to the “bigs” is pitch efficiency. For every batter he would strike out, there is a batter who either walked or was at least able to work the count full. In most starts, Duffy would reach his pitch limit by the 5th inning, with even a few coming earlier than that. So the idea of a guy with his stuff being able to just go out there and blow people away seems like an interesting idea. The only problem is the Royals bullpen already has more arms than roster spots. There’s also that pesky issue of the lack of young starters developed by the Royals over the years…

The Royals are currently in a situation where they can’t just discard good arms to the pen. Kansas City has done an awful job developing young starters during Dayton Moore’s tenure(hell, you could go back even farther if you want. Jim Pittsley anyone?). Ventura making the rotation this spring makes him the only starter who came up through the Royals farm system. The last young pitcher to give Royals’ fans hope? Danny Duffy. Before that? Zack Greinke. There are a couple more arms heading to Kansas City soon(Kyle Zimmer and Miguel Almonte chief among them), but they could still be a year or more away. The Royals need someone to step up this year, especially since they can’t let Bruce Chen start all year if they want to contend. With James Shields probably gone after this season, it puts even more pressure on the Royals to develop starting pitching. So one hopes this isn’t a long-term thing and is more of a ‘for now’ thing. In fact, many feel as if the Royals should keep him starting, even if it is down in AAA. Craig Brown of Royals Review among them:

I thin Duffy needs to go to Omaha. He needs to start. And he needs to have a set pitch count. 90 pitches. See how long he goes each start.

— Craig Brown (@CraigBrown_BP) March 19, 2014

It makes sense. If the Royals use Duffy out of the pen in the first half of the season and then want him to shift to the rotation, it will take awhile before his arm is stretched out to handle the extra workload. Pitching in Omaha would solve that.

But go back to some of the comments Ned Yost and Dave Eiland made:

“You can have success in Class AAA doing exactly what you’re doing now,” Yost said. “They’re going to swing at pitches out of the zone. If you’re going to have success, he’s going to have to do it up here.”

Added pitching coach Dave Eiland, “He needs to learn how to get big-league hitters out. And the only way he can do that is in the big leagues.”

I really feel this is the real argument here. Duffy has developed as much as he can in the minors. There is very little left for him there to accomplish or learn in AAA. AAA hitters are different than major league hitters, by a wide margin. Duffy’s biggest issue has been a lack of efficiency and being able to finish off batters. Half a season in the bullpen can get him to work on it, on top of not having the pressure of being a starter. There is a lot more thinking when it comes to being a starter. In the bullpen, you only need two above average pitches(or one filthy pitch) and a lot less pacing. Sure, Duffy would have to go back to that at some point, but half a season of not thinking might be the best thing for him. One rival executive even agrees with that line of thinking:

“Some of these guys that are high octane, they’re better off not knowing when they’re going to pitch,” the executive said. “Because they sit around the four days in between just dwelling on it.”

To a degree, even Duffy agrees with this line of thinking:

“I think that my game would play very well out of the bullpen, but that’s just my opinion that I’ve had for my whole career,” said Duffy. “I’ve stated my case for that a few times.”

It sounds like Duffy has been open to a move to the bullpen for awhile now. That might be the best thing for him, at least for now. It sounds like he would be more comfortable coming out of the pen.

So what is the best thing for Danny Duffy and his future? I think at this point, both arguments make sense, but the case being made for him to get actual major league hitters out seems like the best course of action. If Duffy excels in the role, they can just insert him in the rotation mid-season, even stretching out his relief appearances building up to his return to the rotation. If he fails out of the pen there are bigger issues at hand than just pitch efficiency and over-thinking. For the long term, the Royals need Duffy to be in the rotation. But for now, a major league role(any major league spot) might be just the thing to tap into his true potential. That is the true endgame.

March 20, 2014 0

2014 Kansas City Royals: Be Royal…Code for Playoffs?

Two weeks from today, the Kansas City Royals will take the field and open the 2014 season in Detroit. Optimism runs high for the Royals this year, as they are coming off of their first winning season in a decade. Not only were they not eliminated from the playoffs until the last week of the season, but they are returning a large portion of the team that got them to this point. Now, I wasn’t quite sold on their chances in 2013 and I even admitted my mistake once the season was over. Going into this year, I think this is a team who will post another winning season(the Royals haven’t posted back to back winning seasons since the early 90’s) but playoffs? Let’s go ahead and take a look at this team and what can be expected coming into what very well could be a make or break year.

Let’s start with what was the biggest strength for Kansas City in 2013, the starting pitching. Most of the same faces are back from last year. James Shields will once again anchor the rotation, leading a staff as free agency is beckoning him. Last year I foolishly didn’t believe Shields was a true ace(silly me), but I was proven wrong as ‘Big Game James’ showed he was up for the challenge. Following him will be Jeremy Guthrie, as he put up solid numbers that continue to defy logic. I only say that since Guthrie continues to give up more hits than innings pitched year after year but also puts up respectable numbers. One would think at some point that would catch up with Guthrie, but he’s been doing it for years and other than his dreadful few months in Colorado, he has been able to not let a large portion of those runners score. Following the ‘Jeremy Guthrie Magic Trick’ will be newly acquired Jason Vargas. Vargas will actually start the second game of the year, but that is more about not pitching Vargas and Chen back to back, since they are practically the same pitcher. Vargas’ signing this winter was the most highly debated, especially after the Royals went out and re-signed Bruce Chen as well. By no means am I saying Vargas is a bad pitcher or that the Royals overpaid for him(although signing him for four years is debatable), but it doesn’t make sense to have him and Chen on the same team. Vargas is replacing Ervin Santana, who put together a splendid year in 2013. It’s doubtful Vargas will put up numbers even comparable to Santana, but he will eat innings and (hopefully) keep the Royals in the game. Chen will be the fourth starter, at least for the first half of the season. If the Royals are serious about this contending thing they won’t have Bruce in the rotation come July. Look, I like Chen and he is great for the clubhouse but the formula they used with him last year(rotation only half the year, other half in the bullpen) is really the way to go with him. The fifth spot in the rotation seems to be young flamethrower Yordano ‘Ace’ Ventura, who might make all of us forget about Santana. There are some lofty expectations on him, as comparisons have even gone as far as future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. If Ventura is even close to what we think he could be, the Royals will be in for a fun year. So with all this said, as much as I like the rotation(and that is without even mentioning how we could see either Danny Duffy or Kyle Zimmer replace Chen at mid-season), I have to believe they won’t be as solid as they were last year. I’m not saying that in a negative way as much as saying that they were so good last year that it seems inconceivable that they would be able to achieve that two years in a row. So expect a slight dip this year with the starters…but not much.

Another solid bunch is the Royals bullpen. The bullpen was so solid last year that only the Atlanta Braves had a better pen in baseball. Leading the bunch was closer Greg ‘Dirty South’ Holland, who surprised even his biggest fans by shaking off an early season slump to put up some of the best numbers of anyone in Kansas City’s history(yes, even up there with Quisenberry and Montgomery). The pen was so deep last year that a guy like Louis Coleman, who was nasty both in the minors and the majors, was only in the big leagues for a portion of the season. One of the main cogs in the bullpen last year was Luke Hochevar, who will miss the 2014 season to have Tommy John Surgery. No worries, Royals fans, as former starter Wade Davis, who is a much better reliever than starter, will be taking his place this year. Add in Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera, and (probably) Donnie Joseph and you have one of the best bullpens in the game. Now, bullpens tend to rollover every few years, so we could be seeing some changes in the near future, but if they can last one more season then the Royals can worry about changes during the offseason.

Now onto the starting lineup. To be flatly honest, this Royals lineup might be the most solid one they have had in years. Before last year, I really felt like the Royals hadn’t done enough to fix their 2012 lack of offense. Honestly, I was proven right. If the offense hadn’t been so streaky one wonders if the Royals would have actually made the playoffs. But this year, things are different. Just taking a glance and there are no major holes in the lineup, no Getz’s or Francoeur’s dragging it down. There are a few question marks, guys coming off of down years in 2013. Mike Moustakas might be the most talked about Royal in this conversation, as he pretty much stunk up the joint last year. It didn’t matter if he was facing lefties or righties, starters or relievers, Orioles or Indians, he just didn’t look good at the plate. Moose tucked his ego aside, went and played in the Venezuelan Winter League while working on his swing. Royals hitting coach Pedro Grifol managed the team Moose was on, so he was able to work with him on a personal basis. What we have seen this spring is more of an open stance from Moustakas, less movement in his swing and a better ability at hitting lefthanders. If Moose can bounce back, that leaves one less worry with this offense. Alcides Escobar was another concern, as he went from having a great offensive 2012 to a downright dismal 2013. It didn’t matter if you hit him at the top of the lineup or the bottom(although he should have had no business at the top of the lineup, where he batted a whopping 49% of the time), Esky was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year. Granted, we all know he is in there for his defense, but a little bit of offense would have been nice. Most Royals fans(and I assume a good portion of the Royals braintrust) would agree that even if Escobar hits in the .260-.270 range, his defense would make up for the rest. The Royals have him signed to a very team-friendly contract, but if doesn’t produce this year then they might have to start looking elsewhere, or at least until Adalberto Mondesi Jr. makes it to the big leagues.

Elsewhere in the lineup, Eric Hosmer is expected to hit much like he did in the second half of the season, as is Salvador Perez. Two guys who’s numbers were down last year was Billy Butler and Alex Gordon and both are being counted on to improve on last year. I know many soured on Butler, as he didn’t put up the power numbers he had the year before, but he was still one of the better hitters on the team. Gordon is being moved down to fifth in the order and will be asked to drive in more runs this year. In the past he has struggled when lowered in the order, so it will be interesting to see how he does. The two new additions to the Royals lineup are right fielder Nori Aoki and second baseman Omar Infante, who are expected to bat first and second respectively. Aoki should get on base at the top of the order, even if he doesn’t walk as much as expected out of that spot in the order. Infante might be better suited to sixth in the order but should be fine second, as he can do about anything asked of him from that spot. Both should be improvements over the players they are replacing and should give the lineup a different look. Lorenzo Cain will be the center fielder and at this point I believe most just want him to stay healthy. Royals management expects continued improvement from the youngsters, which very well could happen. We could also see some struggles as well. Either way though, this offense looks way better than it did last year and one can only hope it produces more to help out the pitching.

The bench though is where there are a few concerns. Since the Royals plan on carrying 12 pitchers when they break camp, that leaves them with only four spots for their bench. One will be the backup catcher, which at this point appears to be Brett Hayes. It also appears as if both Justin Maxwell and Jarrod Dyson will be with the team to backup in the outfield. That leaves one spot, and most of the spring it appeared the Royals would be daring and not keep a backup infielder and instead keep 3B/1B Danny Valencia. Valencia has use, as he scorches lefthanders, but it would appear a backup infielder might be of more value. That seems even more apparent as both Escobar and Infante have battled injuries this spring. The Royals swear they can fill Valencia in at second and move Infante over at SS, but Danny has never played second and it doesn’t appear smart to start that now. The Royals options as backup infielder aren’t very promising, but they could suffice if absolutely needed. Pedro Ciriaco would seem to have the first shot, as he has hit well this spring and is out of options. Jason Donald has also had a good spring but is out of options. There is also former first round draft pick Christian Colon, who can man second or shorstop, but is pretty much just a glove-man at this point. The Royals don’t have great options(and let Emilio Bonifacio, their best option, go before Spring Training), but they knew this all offseason. It would seem insane to go into the season without a backup infielder, and I hope they come to their senses. If not, we could see Valencia at second base and possibly even Moustakas sliding over to shortstop. That’s just scary and nonsensical, folks.

Finally, Ned Yost will be coming back for another season as manager of the Royals. You all know my thoughts on Neddy, and at this point I’m not even going to give you links to my columns ranting about Yost(which also seem to be some sort of weird therapy sessions). My feelings haven’t changed about him. I don’t think he is the guy to get Kansas City to the promise land. He did a good job last year of not letting the guys get too down after their craptacular May, which I give him kudos for. He has learned at this point to just let them play. But we all know he likes to tinker, and that hasn’t changed. Expect some bunting, expect some questionable lineups, and most definitely he will keep a starter in longer than he should. But until the Royals decide he isn’t the guy, it doesn’t matter what I think. Ned is the devil you know at this point.

So with just two weeks remaining until the games count, the Royals almost have their roster set and ready to go. I’ve bounced around a lot of ideas as to what I think will happen this season and where I see them come October and a lot of other issues will factor in during the season(injuries could play a major part, as the Royals lack a lot of depth, especially in the lineup). Last year, I picked them for right around .500, or just a tad below. This year, I believe at the very least this is a winning ball club. Playoffs? I’m not quite there yet. I definitely don’t see them toppling Detroit in the Central and am not totally sure they can get past Cleveland. But if the youngsters continue to develop and Ventura is as good as advertised, this could be a really fun season. In some ways this season is ‘Playoffs or Bust’, as the window for this team is closing. Shields is a free agent at the end of the year, and Butler and Gordon both can be free agents after 2015. There is more young talent on the way, but it’s anyone’s guess just when we will see them. I personally see this team winning 83-87 games, just barely missing out on the postseason. A lot of things went right for them last year and the percentages say that doesn’t happen two years in a row. I do think this team will be fun to watch, even if they win 83. Dayton Moore has finally put together a winning team, one that he pretty much developed. July might be a true test of how much he(or David Glass, as he would have to open the pocketbook) wants it. If the Royals are in it, they have to go for it. This team can contend, but might be still one or two players away from the playoffs. Once again Kansas City, it’s time to prove me wrong. Make me eat my words. I would gladly do it if it means I am watching the Royals play in October. Maybe by then I will understand what ‘Be Royal’ means.

P.S.-I’m pretty sure we will hear this song this year at the K. I just hope they realize the lyrics don’t really make sense for a winning team. Just saying.

March 18, 2014 0

Tag: Danny Duffy

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