Wednesday Notes-11/07/12

It’s been a pretty slow past week in baseball, as teams get prepared for the Hot Stove season to begin. So to tide you over until the real action begins(the wheeling and dealing. Not counting Dayton Moore, who always shows up early to the party), here are a look at some players who are on the market and won’t be signed by the Royals(I think;get back with me in 2 months).

Milwaukee bound?

Maybe the biggest free agent out there this winter is Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is a one of a kind talent that can carry a team on his back and take them to the promised land. The problem is he also comes with a cargo plane full of baggage. Everyone knows of his drug and alcohol past and how it cost him a number of years on his baseball career. He’s had a few relapses over the past couple years, so his past looks to continue to haunt him. Add in his lackluster play late in the season, which at times seemed almost lethargic, and his age(31) and you can see a few of the obstacles any team has if they are interested in bringing Hamilton into the fold. Supposedly Josh is looking for a seven year deal, which seems like a lot considering age, a long injury history and the aforementioned baggage. Milwaukee has been the team mentioned the most in the Hamilton sweepstakes and there is a link there, as the Brewers hitting coach, Johnny Narron, is Hamilton’s former “accountability coach”. It’s easy to see how they might target Hamilton, as Narron gives him a comforting spot. The Rangers have acted very lackluster on their interest in bringing Hamilton back, while the Giants have been mentioned as a “dark horse” candidate. Hell, one GM mentioned they thought Kansas City  could be in the hunt. I got a good laugh out of that. Hamilton is at a crossroads in his career and needs to prove to people he wants to play. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with a 4 or 5 year deal for over $20 million a year.

Untapped potential?

Speaking of available outfielders, BJ Upton of the Tampa Bay Rays is an interesting subject this offseason. Upton is only 28 and a former number one draft pick of the Rays. For years, people in the game keep expecting Upton to show his true potential, as it seems he has all the tools needed to be a top notch player. Unfortunately, he has only shown flashes of this talent, which has got to be frustrating for Tampa Bay management. It’s a pretty sure bet he will be leaving Florida, but to be honest I don’t understand why team’s are so high on him. Okay, I get WHY they are high on him. Scouts still think he will tap into his capabilities and be an All Star. The thing is, the numbers say otherwise. Since 2008, he has hit for more power, but his OBP has nosedived. To make a long story short, he is hitting for more power, but not getting on base as much, which is an important part of the game. In my eyes, Upton is what he is; a guy with pop in his bat, above average defensively, with a lack of plate discipline. Some team will overpay for Upton, and will be hopeful he will figure it out. But I wouldn’t put my money on that happening.

Maybe he should build a webpage with pictures of puppies, you know, to show his softer side.

Oh, Melky. The story has been told again and again, so we won’t get into his fall from grace this season. Instead, lets focus on what could happen with Cabrera. I’m pretty sure some team will sign him, but instead of a multi-year deal for over $10 million a year, Cabrera will probably get stuck with a one year deal for possibly as low as $2 million. Basically, Cabrera has a lot of goodwill to rebuild. Teams have to be concerned about a few things with Melky. For one, we don’t know how much of his success the past two years was hard work and how much was added substances. He will have to prove that the Melky we saw the first half of 2012 was for real. The other issue is the website problem that popped up after his positive test this summer. If it looks like Cabrera might have a court date in his near future, it will be less likely a team will want to take a flyer on him.  There is also the issue of his clubhouse presence. He has never been a favorite in the locker room over the years, but seemed to change the last two years. But when his positive test came out, he bolted the Giants clubhouse, which did not sit well with his teammates. Most felt he should have apologized to them in person instead of bolting. If a team can get around all of these obstacles, then Melky could be worth their time. A team like Seattle seems like a good landing spot for the Melkman, but only time will tell.

Dodging a bullet.

Last Friday, the Angels cut pitcher Dan Haren free, as a proposed deal with the Cubs fell apart at the last minute. Haren was actually a target of the Royals at one point before deciding on his teammate, Ervin Santana. To say I was relieved that Kansas City didn’t get Haren would be an understatement. Look, at one point Haren was an elite starter, probably one of the top ten in the game. I would even say if the trade was offered back before 2011, I’d be excited about acquiring Haren. Unfortunately, Haren struggled throughout 2012, and watching a couple of his starts, it seemed apparent that he was not healthy. Haren has had back issues in the past, which is a giant red flag for any team thinking of picking him up. Back issues are notorious for lingering, and could bother a starting pitcher for years. If you throw in all the innings Haren has thrown over the years, and it is very possible that he is on the downside of his career. Sure, Haren could go out there and prove everything I just said wrong. Or his back issues could linger throughout the rest of his career. When it is all said and done, signing Haren would be a gamble for any team taking a chance on him and even a bigger gamble for a team like the Royals. I will breathe easier knowing the Royals aren’t thinking about bringing Haren into the fold.

It will be weird if Soria is not wearing Royal blue come February.

Last week, the Kansas City Royals cut loose longtime closer Joakim Soria. This wasn’t really big news for us Royals fans, as we all knew the team wasn’t going to pay him the rate he was at, not after going through his second Tommy John surgery. Both sides have said they would like for Soria to come back and be a part of the Royals in 2013, but word came out this week that a number of teams are in the hunt for him as well. As a Royals fan, it would be great to have Soria back, as it only seems appropriate for him to only play for one team in his career. But I am also realistic and understand the Royals don’t NEED Soria. Greg Holland is the closer and proved that he deserves that job. Add in the plethora of young arms in Kansas City’s bullpen and you can see how the Royals could afford to lose Soria. I know I will be upset if Soria signs elsewhere, but I get it. No way should the Royals overspend on a guy who will be a setup guy at best. The Royals need to make their decision more with their head than their heart on this one.

Wednesday Notes-10/24/12

I decided last night to start a regular notes column, most likely on Wednesdays. This way I can take a look at things going on around baseball each week and cover as much ground as possible. So without further ado(and much procrastination), here are your Wednesday notes.

Two perfectly normal relievers…

Tonight is Game One of the 2012 World Series, as the Detroit Tigers will be taking on the San Francisco Giants. Most experts are predicting the Tigers to come out on top, as their pitching has been superb this postseason with a potent offense. Far be it from me to doubt the Cyborg Verlander, but my gut is telling me to not doubt the Giants. They have been the underdogs throughout the playoffs, coming back from the edge of elimination during both the NLDS and the NLCS. They even came back from being down 3-1 against the Cardinals to punch their ticket to the World Series. The only other time it’s happened? The 1985 playoffs by the eventual champion Kansas City Royals. Yes, they did it against the Cardinals that year in the Fall Classic. Game 7 the other night was oddly reminiscent of another Game 7, of that same 1985 World Series. For anyone who doesn’t know, in that game the Cardinals veered off the rails and the Royals routed them in classic fashion. Joaquin Andujar blew a gasket that game, demolishing a toilet in the locker room while Whitey Herzog was ran up by the umpires while his Red Birds choked in epic fashion. I almost expected Andujar to make an appearance Monday night, being carried off the field by Cardinals enabler Mike Matheny. Alas, it didn’t happen but we still got our rout of the Cardinals. Anyway, back to my point, which I lost while reminiscing about the Royals actually winning meaningful games. The Giants have defied the odds all season, so it doesn’t seem right to doubt them now. They have three characteristics that any winning team needs: they know how to win, they are clutch and they have heart. They are also unorthodox, but that isn’t as normal as the other items. This Giants team has pitching, way better defense than the Tigers, and are clutch. So don’t count this Bay Area bunch out just yet. So here goes: my prediction is the Giants in 7.

Storybook Scutaro

Probably the best acquisition before the trade deadline this year is the Giants getting second baseman Marco Scutaro from the Rockies. Scutaro had been traded in the offseason by the Red Sox to Colorado, where he just languished with the under performing Rockies. The Giants needed a middle infielder, and they hit gold with Scutaro. Scutaro caught fire and hit .362 in 61 games for the Giants, solidifying the top of the order after Melky Cabrera was suspended(ie. played the part of a big dummy). Scutaro hasn’t stopped as he is now the MVP of the NLCS and headed to the World Series. All this from a guy who didn’t even make the majors until he was almost 27. He has had to fight his entire career, so this is no different. Scutaro is a guy you cheer for, a guy who has to work twice as hard as everyone else. If you needed another reason to root for the Giants, I just gave you one.

Even in picture I can hear Ozzie cussing.

Yesterday word came down that the Miami Marlins were parting ways with manager Ozzie Guillen after one year. No one should be surprised by this. For one, the Marlins got off to a bad start and never found a real groove. Add in Guillen’s comments about Fidel Castro, less than stellar attendance at their new stadium and his war of words with former closer Heath Bell and it was just a matter of time before Ozzie got the hook. Guillen has always been a very outspoken manager, and this was no different. When Guillen managed the White Sox, I always wondered how his team put up with his show. I mean day after day, it’s Ozzie with permanent diarrhea of the mouth. At some point those players HAVE to just tune him out. Add in owner Jeffrey Loria’s tendency to fire his managers on a whim(just ask Joe Girardi and Fredi Gonzalez about that) and it was just a matter of time until Guillen had his bags thrown out on the lawn. To be perfectly honest, this is the best for the Marlins, and hopefully they make a good hire for manager. I would highly recommend Brad Ausmus, but he doesn’t seem to be interested being in Miami. No matter what, this is a team that needs to rebuild(again) and it might be time for them to hire someone under the radar.

  Boston got their man. John Farrell is the new Red Sox manager, as the team worked out a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays to bring him to Boston. Beantown is not new to Farrell, as he was the pitching coach for years in Boston under former manager Terry Francona. He was well liked in the Boston clubhouse and was a favorite of the players. I think this is great move by Boston and was GM Ben Cherington’s original choice last year, but was outvoted by the Boston owners. Now, the part of this I found interesting was that Toronto’s compensation for Farrell going to Boston is shortstop and former Royal Mike Aviles. I’ve always been an Aviles fan, but Boston just fleeced Toronto. John Farrell will be a good major league manager, while Aviles will be…well, Aviles. Which means he is a solid starter but probably a better fit as a solid backup that can fill in if someone gets injured. I don’t know for sure what Toronto is thinking, but if you are keeping score at home, I believe the score is Boston 1, Toronto 0.

That expression…that is how most Red Sox fans felt this season.

Speaking of the Red Sox, yesterday in an interview, former manager Bobby Valentine continued his scorched earth tour, saying that star hitter David Ortiz decided not to play the rest of the season after their big blockbuster trade with the Dodgers that signaled Boston waving the white flag on the season. Look, I’m not going to go into whether or not I think Ortiz was actually hurt or just gave up. Either way, what is more interesting is that Valentine continues to burn bridges left and right. I get that Valentine was probably blamed for some stuff he had nothing to do with, and was the scorn of a lot of Red Sox fans this past season. I’m sure being the Red Sox manager is a major pressure cooker, but this is just uncalled for. Part of being a manager is to have your players back, and Valentine doing this would make any player think that if he played for Bobby there wouldn’t be that level of trust. Unless that is the point. Maybe Bobby V is done managing. Maybe this was the last straw. If so, it is an awful way to go out. But he also made his own bed. Time to sleep in it.

Wouldn’t he look good in Royal blue?

Finally, I love trade rumors, especially this time of year. So many possibilities that are endless and mostly purely fictional. But there was one floating around last week that interested me. Someone threw out there that the Royals were interested if the Tampa Bay Rays make star pitcher David Price available. It’s no big secret that the Royals main priority this offseason is pitching and the team has no true number one starter on the team. Price would be that, easily. But this got me to thinking. What if the Royals can’t get Price, but would still like some pitching? Tampa has a gluttony of arms, and I can’t see them not being interested in some young talent if the Royals are willing to deal. My choice would be Jeremy Hellickson who has been on my wish list for a couple years now. I would have to think the Royals could scrounge up some prospects that would make the Rays interested. The name bandied about for Price was Billy Butler, which might be a tad high for Hellickson. But let’s be honest here; the Royals need to do something. I can easily see the Royals parting ways with a Butler, Moustakas or Hosmer if it nets them a top of the line starter. I would hate for any of those guys to leave, but to receive talent you have to trade talent. Time will tell, but if Kansas City is smart they will further conversations with the Rays and see if  they work something out. You can only hope it is not a debacle like the Cabrera for Sanchez deal that went down last year.

Perfection (and Why it is Easier to Accomplish)

Yesterday, Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners threw a perfect game, the first of his career, the first in Mariners history and the third overall this season. Not only that, it was the sixth no-hitter thrown this year in Major League Baseball. The last two years, pitchers have been all the rave in baseball, and the focus has been more on what happens on the mound than what happens at the dish. When did this happen and why is it good for baseball?

Last year was considered by many to be the year of the pitcher, a nod back to 1968 and a year where pitchers dominated, especially Cardinals Hall of Famer Bob Gibson who led the National League that year with an ERA of 1.12, a modern baseball record. It also forced baseball to lower the mound, to give hitters a “fair chance” against the pitchers who were dominating the game at that point. This year seems like a continuation of the Year of the Pitcher, with all of the perfect games and no-hitters being thrown around baseball and pitchers putting up flashier stats than their hitting counterparts. A big part of why this is happening is because of all the young pitchers scattered across baseball. Younger pitchers have sprouted up across the majors the last two years and not only are they young, but they throw harder and seem to have a good grasp on how to actually pitch, not throw. This has led to pitchers gaining an advantage over the hitters, a good sign for baseball after the years of power, which is often referred to as the “Steroid Era”.

The “Steroid Era” is another reason for the pitchers success over the last two years. Major League Baseball’s drug testing has proven to be topnotch, and other than the gaffe in the Ryan Braun positive test, no one has been able to successfully appeal a suspension handed down to them by MLB. With the success rate they have had with their testing, many players have chosen not to even chance it when it comes to trying to use banned substances. Sure, there will be guys like Melky Cabrera who either try to see what they can get away with or just aren’t smart about it, but most players know the testing is improving at a rapid rate and is not worth chancing it. Therefore, less players that are chiseled out of granite and more professional hitters litter the baseball  fields of 2012.

With all that drug testing being put into affect, it has made it to where teams focus less on homeruns and RBI’s. Instead, more value is shown to stats like OPS and WAR. Both stats show more of a players full value instead of just focusing on one simple area. While these stats will give you a more patient hitter, which is good, it can also give you a player who strikes out a bit more often, or a hitter who puts the ball in play more. Both are hitters that a pitcher like Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander loves, as both are efficient starters who attack the strike zone and have nasty stuff to back it up. A power hitter can hurt you in more than one way, where as a singles hitter can hurt, but more likely to put the ball in play. Both can hurt you, but more pitchers would rather face a slap hitter than a slugger. Less loaded lineups lead to an advantage to the pitchers.

Maybe the biggest reason for the influx in pitching has been the focus by a lot of teams on pitching and defense. For years, the saying has gone ‘pitching and defense wins championships’. This philosophy was successful for many years, but after the 1994 baseball strike, it seemed many a team got away from this way of thinking. With power going out of vogue again, more teams stocked up on pitching and better defensive players. More teams will get by with a player who isn’t as good offensively if they bring great defense to the table. Ask Felix Hernandez how much it helps having Brendan Ryan playing Shortstop for the Mariners?  Ryan might barely hit .200, but he gives Seattle Gold Glove defense. Having that on your team can help, but can also make it easier for a pitcher to attack the bottom of your batting order. Utilizing these methods can both help and hurt your ballclub, leading to some really great pitching performances.

All in all, this wave of great pitching has really showcased the game of baseball. After years of sluggers with Popeye-like arms, we are now in an age focusing more on the little details of the game. No one knows how long it will last, but it probably means we will see more no-hitters and perfect games before it is all said and done. Hopefully it won’t dilute the game, only highlight all the great things that the game of baseball brings to the table.

Perfection be thy name!

 

The Blame Game

“I need eight more Betancourt’s to put in the lineup, Dayton…”

Last night, the Kansas City Royals continued their descent into the AL Central basement, falling to the Seattle Mariners…again. Let’s be honest here, it’s not like the Seattle Mariners are the reincarnation of the old Bronx Bomber teams that had juggernaut offensives. Nope, the Mariners are actually one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. The Royals have made them look like hitting savants, not like a team that just traded a future Hall of Famer to the Yankees. With the Royals now tied for the central basement with Minnesota, the question has to be asked-who is to blame?

There seem to be alot of fingers to point in a lot of different directions, but let’s start with the manager, Ned Yost. I’ve been saying since April that Yost needs to go, as his managing style is shoddy at best. To be honest, as of late the only major faults of Yost is the juggling of the lineup and his continuance to keep Jeff Francoeur in the lineup. Yost is still not the man for the job, but I don’t think he deserves the brunt of the blame right now. He is just a minor flaw in a bigger problem.

What about hitting coach Kevin Seitzer? This is where things get interesting, as Seitzer has been a huge help for a number of ex and current Royals. Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Melky Cabrera and Alcides Escobar can all thank Seitzer for improving their hitting while being with the ballclub. It’s easy to point the finger at him, as the offense not producing has been a big part of the team’s issues this season. The thing is, the team is hitting. They just aren’t getting any clutch hits, which is what is killing the team. Sure, that falls on Seitzer a bit, but I’m not ready to put all the blame on him, as he has helped this club more than hindered it. Now, if it continues and there is no turn around, then a conversation maybe needs to be had. But if you asked my opinion, this doesn’t fall at Seitzer’s feet.

Next is owner David Glass. To be fair, the whole reason this team is as bad as it has been for so long falls on Glass’ shoulders. Glass spent years treating the team like it was a Wal Mart and only when he hired Dayton Moore did he actually start shelling out money for drafts and scouting. While I agree with that process, at some point Glass will have to start spending more, or any success the team will have is null, as players will leave when they become free agents. Glass is a major part of the blame here, but not the main guy I point the finger at for this team being this bad.

At the end of the day, the finger needs to be pointed at GM Dayton Moore. Moore came in with a great pedigree, being brought up through the Atlanta Braves organization, which has won more than any other National Legue team since the 1990’s. It seemed at the time that Moore would help this team get to where it needed to go. Six years later, and he spouts off about how it is an eight year process, etc…the honest truth is that it isn’t. In fact, most GM’s who don’t win within six years get fired. Sure, Moore had to almost completely rebuild the farm system, and he has done a great job of that. I’ve always said Moore is a great scout, and he hasn’t done anything to dissuade me from that thinking. But being a GM isn’t just about being a great scout, and this is where Moore has dropped the ball.

Glass has given him a small payroll to work with. That is fine, but Dayton has shown a tendency to waste money on bad players instead of using what he’s got wisely. Signing Yuniesky Betancourt for 2 million dollars, when no other team was even negotiating with him? Stupid. Signing Jose Guillen to a huge contract, despite it being well known that he was a clubhouse cancer? Dumb. Then they are trades, like Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs, which took over half a year before Jacobs quit getting regular at bats. Being a small market team, you have to be a creative GM and use your assets smartly. Dayton doesn’t do that. He is the man who structures the team and makes the decision on who gets called up or sent down. Why is Johnny Giavotella not in the big leagues, at least giving him a chance to prove himself? Why was Kila Ka’aihue allowed to sit in AAA for almost 3 years before he was given a chance? If a player plays good in the minors and you don’t have someone blocking them, you give them a chance in the majors, as you are never totally for sure what you have until you give them a chance. Moore has not allowed that to happen, and that falls on him.

I literally could go on and on with Dayton’s mistakes, like the hiring of both Trey Hillman and Ned Yost. Once again, that ends up at Dayton’s feet. At the end of the day, the Royals would do best to get a new owner, manager and GM. But since that probably isn’t realistic, my vote would be that Dayton needs to go at the end of the season. The man is a great scout and he’ll always be able to find a job in baseball. But when it comes to being a General Manager, he has failed. Six years is enough suffering; it’s time to make a change.

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