Tag: Major League Baseball

Let’s Breakdown some Royals/Yankees Hot Takes

(Credit: Aaron Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Bobby Witt Jr.: Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images)




Like most Kansas City Royals fans, I’m still in a bit of shock that the team is in the postseason. The expectation was that they would be better this year (how could they be worse, right?) but expecting a 30 win increase felt very unrealistic. But here we are. Not only have the Royals reached the postseason, but they won their Wild Card matchup against the Baltimore Orioles to move on to the American League Divisional Series.

The ALDS started on Saturday night in New York, as the Royals are taking on their back-in-the-day rivals, the New York Yankees. The Yankees came away victorious on Saturday night but not without a little bit of controversy. If you still scan the wasteland of Twitter (and yes, I refuse to call it by any other name) you probably saw a lot of opinions on not only the umpiring in the game, but also replay, MLB and even the Yankees. So today, let’s take a look at some of these opinions and sort out the difference between reality and opinion.

MLB Doesn’t Want the Royals to Win

(Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

This has been a popular narrative for years, that Major League Baseball doesn’t want the smaller market teams to win, instead hoping the larger markets win out bring their larger fanbases with them. If we are being honest, there is probably a bit of truth here, although I would argue the TV networks want this more than MLB. There is something to be said for the smaller markets to come out victorious, as people love rooting for an underdog.

In this argument, the Royals are the obvious underdogs while the Yankees would be that large market that television networks covet. If some of you remember (and I’m sure a number of you do), the Royals were in this position back in 2014 and 2015 and I don’t believe the numbers for the World Series either year tanked. Having the variety in the playoffs is a plus and one that allows a number of different fanbases to not only cheer on their team but also be part of October baseball.

I’m sure there are certain scenarios that MLB would love to see, whether it be for ratings, attendance or even social media activity. Sometimes it doesn’t even have anything to do with a team or market as much as compelling action that makes it harder for any fan to turn away. At the end of the day, MLB wins either way, whether it is is the ‘Up and Coming’ team or the teams you love to hate (I’m looking at you, Yankees/Dodgers/Astros). So the narrative that MLB hates your team…well, I just don’t believe that is true.

The Umpires Wanted the Yankees to Win

(Credit: Adam Hunger/Associated Press)

One of my big pet peeves in sports is fans laying the blame for their team’s woes on the officiating. To me it’s a cop out and ignoring the things your team did wrong in the game. Nine times out of ten, there is an easier explanation as to why the game turned out the way it did and it normally has nothing to do with a bad call on the field. So how did the home plate umpire do on Saturday Night?

So overall, the ump called a pretty good game. I do feel like there are a couple of things here that should be addressed. First off, yes, there were a few calls that were missed & in crucial parts of the game. While it’s not great, it does happen & if it turns into walk, that also means three balls were thrown before then that got you to that point. This is why most baseball experts insist on throwing strikes.

Second, there were a few calls that while they might have slightly looked outside of the strike zone & were called strikes, this was being called for both teams. The pitch that was called strike three on Bobby Witt Jr in the ninth? That pitch was being called a strike to Juan Soto as well. To me, as long as an ump is fairly consistent, I’m not going to complain.

Finally, while the box for the strike zone we see on TV is close to accurate, it is not 100%. I’ve always looked at it like anything around the edges that pretty much hugs the box is probably a strike. You might be wondering why they don’t just make the box accurate? It’s because the zone is technically an invisible thing that while we know essentially where it is, it can also be up for interpretation. Also, every outlet (Fox, TBS, ESPN, Bally, etc.) has a different size box for television. So when you are watching a game, just remember there is some leeway to the zone you are seeing & you shouldn’t take the box as a literal thing. But then again, what would we have to argue about then?

Replay Screwed the Royals

(Credit: Adam Hunger/Associated Press)

This is the narrative that has gotten the most traction & it is easy to see why. In the bottom of the 7th inning, Jazz Chisholm Jr was on first when he attempted to steal a base:

So on the replay it did look like Chisholm was tagged before he touched the base. It was hard to tell, as the play was close & most of the angles made it to where you couldn’t tell. There was one angle where it looked like Michael Massey tagged him just a hair before he got to the bag, but it very much felt like a bang-bang play.

I instantly said ‘They aren’t going to overturn it’. I’ve watched a lot of baseball over the years. The last couple years, I am normally watching a game every day. I am the diehard fan who will just watch a game to watch a game. What I can tell you from watching all those games is that normally when a play that is thisclose happens, on replay it comes back as the call stands, due to not having clear and concise evidence that they should change the call. It is almost like clockwork, to the point that it feels very predictable.

Now realize, I am not saying this is right or that we should just accept that. What I am saying is that it’s been like this for years and MLB appears to have no issue with it. With a call like that being so close, it’s hard for me to get too upset that it isn’t reversed. Yes, I would have liked for it to be turned over but I am realistic in recognizing that it probably won’t happen.

I also believe they should have non-umpires in the review room for replay to help make those calls. As of now, there are umpires reviewing the plays & making the decisions. Umpires that know the other umps who are calling the games they are reviewing. Is there a bias there? Inherently, yes. I am not saying that reviews aren’t being overturned because they don’t want their fellow umps to look bad. What I am saying is that whether they are aware or subconsciously doing it, there is a chance they are siding with their brethren. Having a non-umpire in the room to me would just help in the decision making and help any biases.

All that being said, you are not in those situations without giving up baserunners. The Royals all game long were allowing the leadoff hitter on base for a number of those innings. Chisholm got a leadoff hit. Also, if Salvador Perez had made a better throw it wouldn’t have been as close and Chisholm would have probably been called out. Replay not overturning that call didn’t cost the Royals the game. It didn’t help but it wasn’t THE deciding factor…and it definitely wasn’t the umpires looking out for the Yankees. It was just the status-quo for MLB replay.

(Credit: Brad Penner Imagn Images)

At the end of the day, the Royals lost Game 1 of the ALDS for a number of reasons. Whether it was the eight walks allowed by their pitching, or the lack of execution with runners in scoring position or even the 1 for 14 at the plate from Kansas City’s Big Three (Witt, Pasquantino, Perez) , you can find numerous reasons for why the Royals fell short in this matchup. Personally, I felt like the offense felt more alive than it has been in weeks and if the bullpen had been a little bit better we might have seen the Royals come away with a victory in Game 1. I even thought they handled Gerrit Cole pretty well, which is a good sign if this series gets to a Game 4.

People like to push a lot of narratives when it comes to big matchups like this but normally facts are the most logical way to go when analyzing the final results. It’s easy to blame an umpire, or the Yankees, or even MLB for why something doesn’t go the way you want it to. When it comes right down to it, the Yankees made a few less mistakes than the Royals and that is why they came out on top. The good news? Game 2 is Monday night. As we all know, the Royals mantra this year has been to not worry about tomorrow and focus on today. Hopefully that holds true for what we see Monday in the Bronx.

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A few months worth of thoughts from this Royals fan

Credit: Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

What’s it been, like nine months or so? An entire season and then some, right? So in 2023 I wrote one article. One. That is it. Ah, the days of me writing multiple pieces in a week are gone and I’m not sure how I feel about that. On one hand, I wish I wrote more and was able to go deeper on some of the thoughts I have, whether it’s the Royals or baseball in general. On the other, I just don’t have to toss my thoughts out there anymore and am fine with just being a fan who avoids social media more and more every day.

I will say that despite the Kansas City Royals being a very bad baseball team in 2023 (other synonyms for bad: awful, lame, terrible, disastrous and brutal, just to name a few) I didn’t mind watching them. It was a weird feeling knowing that Jordan Lyles was going to hop on the mound, give up 3-5 home runs, completely put the team in the tank and think ‘Well, he can’t start tomorrow, right?’. It was almost like I had this weird sense of serenity when watching the Royals since they were finally free of a false leader with a superiority complex. The team had chosen a new direction, one that felt right, that sounded right and while it looked wonky, it appeared to be a path that would lead to success.

Yes, I believe in the current path of the organization. I approve of the coaching hires, the pitching development program in the minors and I definitely think Matt Quatraro was a great hire. I still question J.J. Picollo as the Royals GM, although that has waned a bit this offseason. I definitely feel like the scouting department needs a major overhaul, but that’s an article for another time (let’s say two years from now? That work?). And I’m totally not a fan of the snake oil salesman known as the owner, John Sherman. But overall, the Royals have a solid foundation and there is hope in Kansas City again.

Credit: Elias Valverde II / The Dallas Morning News

But instead today I thought I would throw out a few questions I get asked a lot. Yes, people still ask me about the Royals. Look, I sometimes wonder why they do but then I remember that while you rarely see me post here, I still religiously follow the team. I’m still ‘deep in the weeds’. I just don’t post my thoughts that often. So for that reason, I get Royals questions all the time. So today I will answer some of them and maybe I can go back to being a hermit.

Wow! The Royals spent money this offseason. Are they going to be contenders in 2024?

Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, John Sherman, a man worth over a billion dollars, remembered that he had money he could spend on his baseball team and actually decided to do just that. If we are being honest, Picollo has assembled a nice crop of new players for Kansas City to trot out in 2024, acquiring the likes of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Chris Stratton, Will Smith (no, the other Will Smith) and Mike Trout doppelganger Hunter Renfroe. The team needed to strengthen their pitching staff and from the looks of it they have done just that. With the way it looks right now, Jordan Lyles is a fifth starter at best (AT BEST). We all know Sherman spent the money to convince taxpayers to help pay for a new stadium (more on that later), but he did finally open his checkbook and the results aren’t bad.

Is it enough to make the Royals contenders. Oh boy, that feels like a loaded question. On paper it appears the team is improved but the question becomes how much? If the new acquisitions play on par with their 2023 numbers, and if the offense performs more like they did in the second half of last season and if a handful of players improve on their performance of last year and if Bobby Witt Jr. continues to prove he is ‘Bobby Baseball’, this team has a chance to contend. That sure is a lot of if’s. Look, I would love for the Royals to surprise everyone and take over the American League Central in 2024 and prove my theory of last winter, which was if any team in the division spent even a decent amount of money (any of them), the AL Central could be theirs for the taking.

Credit: Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

But do I believe the Royals will improve their win total by 30+ games or even 20+? I’m not counting on it. If the team had some players ready in the farm system to produce and it looked like they were 1-3 players away, maybe I could believe more. But this team had so many holes last season and just expecting a lot of players performances to improve feels foolhardy. I think they will be better, but I’m talking like 15-20 games better at most. That still puts them under .500 and not a contender in the American League. I think at this point we need to take the small wins and be thankful for them. This is an organization that hasn’t had a winning season since 2015, which is getting very close to ten years ago now. I will take whatever little victories I can at this point.

Also, the team should have signed Shohei Ohtani this offseason. What a whiff.

Should the Royals trade Salvador Perez?

Credit: AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Ah, the battle between the heart and the mind. That is essentially what a trade of Salvador Perez would be. I think 3/4 of us could agree that we wouldn’t want Salvy to be traded and we would even prefer he only wear royal blue for the rest of his career. But baseball is a business and sometimes you have to make moves that aren’t popular but are better in the long-term.

From a purely numbers perspective it would make sense to trade Perez. His core numbers have dropped the last two years and the abuse he has taken behind the plate is showing signs of wear and tear. His best seasons are behind him and if we are being really honest with ourselves, Salvy should be the primary DH at this point. He’s entering his age 34 season and regression has already begun.

But would the Royals get true value for him? Probably not what they want. No team is going to value Perez the way Kansas City would. Their expectations of any trade for him are going to be higher than they should be. The lone exception to that might be the White Sox, who are trying to recreate that Kansas City feel and have people (Grifol, Tosar, Getz,etc.) who probably still see him as the glue of whatever lineup he is in. Chicago has the 16th best farm system in baseball and have done a decent job of restocking their system through trades and might continue to if Dylan Cease is dealt. But I’m not sure they have what Kansas City is looking for, even if Picollo was deathly serious about making a deal.

Toss in how Royals ownership wants the stadium bill on the April ballot and you have a recipe for Salvy not going anywhere. In the long run it’s probably the best, as the team has alienated their fanbase enough over the last couple seasons and a trade of your most popular star would probably not help. Unless something major happens, Salvy ain’t going anywhere.

Where is that Bobby Witt, Jr. extension?

Credit: Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

We could have asked this question last winter. Actually, I think most of us were asking this question last winter. While guys like Julio Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll where getting locked in for an extended period, there was nothing when it came to Bobby. While he didn’t have a blow away rookie campaign in 2022, he did enough to make you think Kansas City should get a deal done before it cost them too much. 

Fast forward a year and Witt had a breakout second half where he looked like one of the top 20 players in the game. His value skyrocketed and now any extension is going to cost the Royals. The thing is, the longer this goes on, the more expensive it is going to get. There are no guarantees in baseball but if I had to guess, BWJ is going to be a perennial All-Star for the next 10 years and will probably be talked about for future MVP awards. Before you say it, yes, he could be that good; the kid is only 23.

So what are the Royals waiting for? For all we know, the organization has tried to lock him up and he isn’t interested at the moment. Although Bobby has said there have been talks “here and there”, whatever that means. Unless someone just comes out and says it, we don’t know that they haven’t been working on a deal. It wouldn’t shock me if they announced a long-term deal right before a certain stadium bill could be voted on in April (if you know what I’m saying). Only the Royals, Bobby and his agent know where they stand on this issue and no one is talking

What I do know is that as a fan I would like Bobby to stay with the team as long as possible and an extension would do the trick. The fear is that the Royals will wait too long and by the time they make a concerted effort, Witt has priced himself out of the team’s plans. If you are an old enough Royals fan, you remember Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye all price themselves out of the Royals market. I think we can all agree we don’t want to see a repeat of that with Bobby.

How do you feel about the Royals wanting a new stadium?

Credit: Kansas City Royals

For the sake of you, the reader, I’m going to try and keep this short. I have spent the last year ranting about this to my family and friends and I don’t need to put anyone else through that. This is a very passionate topic for me and because of that I have a lot of opinions about it. So…here we go.

Do I want a new stadium? No.

Do I feel the Royals need a new stadium? No.

Does it feel dirty how Royals ownership has gone about trying to convince the fans they need a new stadium? Yes.

Do I feel taxpayers should help pay for a new a stadium or any stadium at all? Hell no.

Is this really all about real estate and John Sherman making bank off of the area around the stadium? God yes.

Look, if I felt the Royals needed a new stadium and this made sense I would be for it. Nothing lasts forever, especially baseball stadiums. But that is not what is going on here and most of us can see that. John Sherman wants to make money off of the real estate and a new stadium is how he gets that. This is a rich man trying to get richer. It has nothing to do with baseball and everything to do with lining Sherman’s pockets.

The Royals are bound and determined to get a new stadium. They aren’t for sure where or when, but they will get their stadium. There is even the chance that voters vote down the bill and the team looks to move to a different city. Yes, there is an outside chance Kansas City could lose the team and someplace like Nashville could get the Royals. That is obviously the worst case scenario, but it would be foolish to ignore that possibility. 

I don’t like this and I never have but I realize I have zero say in this and they are going to do whatever they want to do. I don’t believe any taxpayer should pay for a sports stadium when these teams are owned by millionaires and billionaires; you know, people who can afford these pricey buildings. To have taxpayers help pay, when they will receive none of the profit from the stadium, sure does feel like a kick in the groin. The biggest con in sports is convincing fans to help pay for their stadiums and over the years that con has appeared to work. I just hope Kansas City fans don’t fall for it.

I think that is about all I’m going to say about it. I love ‘The K’ and would like for it to last as long as possible but that appears to be me asking for too much. I will say that if there are things on your bucket list that you would like to see at Kauffman Stadium, I would suggest start marking those wants and needs off soon. If you don’t, you might turn around and realize you can’t mark them off anymore because the stadium isn’t there.

Why do you hardly write anymore?

Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Technically this question isn’t Royals related, but I do get asked every now and then why I rarely write anymore. I’m sometimes thrown back by this, since there are a ton of people who write about baseball and there are so many opinions out there that the idea of losing just one lone voice doesn’t feel like a big issue. I appreciate everyone who reads my stuff but I’m just one guy who has loved the Royals since I was a little kid. Remember, I’m a big picture kinda guy.

The main reason that I don’t write very much is I just don’t have the time. My schedule has gradually been getting busier and busier since about 2018 and I can’t seem to slow it down. I used to be able to write at work late at night, since I would have an hour or two I could use for myself. I used to also have time to myself in general, which I rarely get anymore. But the real culprit is work.

Starting in 2018, I was pretty much splitting my time at work between days and nights. Rather than just have one consistent shift, my schedule bounced around a lot because I was the guy who filled in for everyone. When the pandemic happened in 2020, I was furloughed, which you would think meant I would have more time. But the honesty of the situation was that most people were at home, including my wife. It became harder for me to focus when writing and with other people around it became almost impossible.

Then in early 2021 I became the midday guy. We already were short on people and now even more was going to be asked of me. Add in our program director leaving in July of that year and work just got a lot more complicated. Ever since then, I am mentally drained by the time I get home and don’t really have the energy to churn out a piece on why Jordan Lyles is a great batting practice pitcher.

I’ve also been okay with just being a fan. Look, I love baseball and I love writing about it but I’m never going to make a living off of this. It was always just a fun thing to do so I could talk baseball. I still have all these thoughts and opinions about the sport but I just don’t feel anymore like I have to put them out into the world.

I’ve said this the last few years but I just don’t know how much time I will devote to this blog moving forward. I wrote one article last year and this is already tying my 2023 total. I would like to shoot for once a month but I know there are periods where my schedule is just super hectic. If you give me the option of watching a baseball game or writing about it, I’m probably going to just watch it. So I appreciate everyone who reads this and I hope that this isn’t my only post for the year: Fingers crossed.

Credit: Charlie Riedel/AP

So there you go, a few thoughts I have on our Kansas City Royals. 2023 was a rough year for our boys in blue but it looks like this new year could bring them a few more wins. More than anything, I hope all the bumps in the road over the last 4 years hasn’t killed your interest in this team and I hope you at least give them a chance in 2024.

Mary Tyler Moore once said “Take chances, make mistakes. That’s how you grow.” Wise words but I tend to lean more toward the great philosopher Homer Simpson when he said “Don’t worry son, everyone makes mistakes. Yours is just public and expensive”. To me that sums up the Royals of the last couple seasons. Let’s hope there are fewer mistakes in the new season.

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A Positive Direction For the Royals

Credit: Kansas City Star

You might of heard that the Kansas City Royals made some sweeping changes across their coaching staff this past winter. Matt Quatraro is the new manager. Paul Hoover is his right hand man in the role of bench coach. Brian Sweeney is the new pitching coach while Zach Bove is the assistant pitching coach. The team even added Jose Alguacil as the infield coach and Mitch Stetter was bumped up to bullpen coach. As David Bowie use to sing about, it’s all about ch-ch-ch-ch-changes.

It’s hard not to be on board with a complete restructure for this organization. Last season started out with hope that the Royals could start making some big steps forward with all their drafted young talent and instead their season took a giant nosedive into a new level of ineptitude. The few times I wrote last year, it was about how bad this team was and how they needed to move in a new direction. To be honest with you, for the first team in a very, very long time, I checked out.

Why did I check out? For many reasons but the main one was that it was painfully obvious the team needed to try something different and Mike Matheny, Cal Eldred and even Dayton Moore weren’t getting the job done. So what did the front office do to fix things? Nothing. Sure, they shuffled the hitting coach out of town but that wasn’t even the biggest area of worry for the team and felt like a change to appease fans like me into thinking they were doing something, anything. But their lack of action to fix the other areas of the team pushed me away. If they didn’t care to be better, I didn’t care whether I gave the team my time. Simple as that.

Credit: USA Today

But a new day is now here and yes, I am back in the fold. I was never going to fully go away; did you forget I bleed royal blue? I even broke down and give Bally Sports money every month despite the fact I think the price for their app is ridiculous (another article for another time, am I right?). So just like many other Royals fans I have been watching the team and many people around me have said ‘The Royals are 4-9. It’s the same ol’ team. Shuffle the deck, but they always lose’. And while yes, they technically do have a losing record and will more than likely have a losing record when all 162 games have been played this season, this is not the same old Royals. In fact I would argue that we can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Let’s start with the hitting. On the surface, the offense has been grim. Next to last in the league in runs scored, wOBA, wRC+ and on-base percentage and 13th in home runs. None of that is a positive that can be spun any other way than just the Royals aren’t getting on base enough and aren’t scoring enough runs. Add in a paltry walk rate and a high strike out percentage and you can see why they are 4-9. But as I’m sure you have seen, there are some positives with the Royals hitters.

Their line drive rate and hard hit rate are in the middle of the pack and their ground ball rate is in the bottom fifth of the league. But they are 4th in fly ball rate which means they are putting the ball in the air much more than on the ground, and in today’s world of baseball that is a positive. Just to give you an idea, the Tampa Bay Rays are the hottest team in baseball and are leading the AL in hard hit rate and fly ball rate while posting the lowest ground ball rate in the league. The Rays are the model that Kansas City’s coaching staff is following, so it only makes sense that they are doing things very similar to them.

Want some more? The Royals have the 4th highest exit velocity in the league, 6th in barrel percentage and second in hard hit percentage according to Statcast. So when the Royals hit the ball, they are hitting the ball hard and squaring up the ball. They’ve obviously run into some bad luck, as evidence by the lowest BABIP in the league. If you know anything about batting average on balls in play, you know that the likelihood that those numbers continue to stay at the bottom are slim. If you are doing everything right when it comes to barrels and hitting the ball hard, the ball WILL eventually find a hole and WILL get you on base. What I’m saying is that the futility we have seen so far won’t last all season.

Credit: Ron Schwane/Getty Images

One more little nugget I want to add to the offense. This is a very young team and it’s very evident with the lineup. On a nightly basis, there is a good chance that at least five or more members of the lineup are in their first or second year in the majors. With a young team, you are going to see struggles, especially as they adjust to being a big leaguer and dealing with stressful situations. To say this will probably be a streaky offense throughout 2023 is probably a safe assumption. Yes, there is a ton of upside with the Royals bats, but realize with that comes the normal struggles and slumps that almost every young player has dealt with. Just ask George Brett.

But what about the pitching? Look, we all are laser focused on the pitching considering how bad it has been for years. Last year, Kansas City’s pitching was last in ERA, FIP, K%, BB%, WHIP, next to last in pitching WAR and 13th in win probability. To say we all wanted Cal Eldred’s head on a stick is an understatement and looking back now it blows my mind that he was given five years to be a pitching coach when it was very obvious he was not qualified for the job. Still not sold on why Dayton Moore was fired? Look at his resistance to let Eldred go as the biggest sign that he was not making good decisions to help the organization move forward.

To watch the Royals pitchers this year, it is the biggest breath of fresh air this organization has had in years. It’s early (and because of that, we’ll throw out the line about small sample size that is a favorite) but so far in 2023, the Royals are 9th in ERA, FIP, K%, WAR, 6th lowest BB%, 8th in WHIP and 7th in win probability. To go from pretty much the worst pitching staff in the league to middle of the pack shows how much of an impact Sweeney and Bove have had on the pitchers in a short amount of time and to me is a sign that they were the right choices for the job.

This is where I point out that this is pretty much the same pitching staff that the Royals had last year and the numbers are trending upward. Brad Keller has a new curveball that has turned him into a moderate strike out pitcher. Kris Bubic is throwing a new slider (which he was actually using in Spring Training back in 2022 but never used it in a regular season game) and looks like a completely different pitcher. Aroldis Chapman’s velocity has skewed down for years now and all of a sudden he is throwing 102-103 MPH again. Outside of Dylan Coleman, almost every Royals pitcher has either improved on last year or are basically where they were last year when it comes to their development.

Credit: AP Photo/Chris O’Meara

This is not to say there won’t be bumps in the road. We still haven’t seen Daniel Lynch this season and no one is guaranteed an A+ outing every time they go out there. But it is impressive to see the progress from the pitching staff in such a short amount of time. Once again, it makes you wonder how much farther along this team would be if only the front office had addressed these issues sooner rather than later. But in the here and now, it appears as if the Royals are in an upward trajectory that is bringing a lot of us hope. Speaking of:

I read this tweet on Wednesday night from the great Rany (and when it comes to Royals writers that are on a pedestal for me, Rany & Craig Brown are as good as it gets) and that was exactly how I felt. The entire first week of the season I kept saying to my wife that it felt like a completely different team and organization but I wasn’t for sure if some of that wasn’t because I skipped out on last season. I thought it might be a byproduct of my absence in 2022 that was giving me hope I hadn’t had with this team in years.

But I really do think the team is headed in the right direction. I do feel like the proper decisions are being made and that thought and logic are being used on a daily basis. This isn’t to say things are always going to be rainbows and lollipops; I still think this team won’t reach .500 this year and there will be struggles that will go on longer than we want. But I see so much positive that as long as they keep on this road and adjust when necessary, things will be fine.

I was watching an interview with the new Royals skipper earlier this week and Q’s demeanor to me is one of the biggest changes that was necessary for this team to move forward:

The positives. Quatraro is so laid back and I even heard him the other day make the comment to the effect that “we lost today but we’ll just go out and try to win tomorrow”. When Matheny was in the dugout, it always felt like the team was anxious and that he was too intense for what this younger Kansas City team needed. The relaxed vibe has appeared to do wonders for their psyche and given them the opportunity to put losses in the rearview mirror quicker than they did last year. Q feels like the polar opposite of Matheny and shows he is the right man for where the Royals are at right now.

Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Still not sold? Let me put it another way for you. Progress for a baseball team isn’t always a win-loss situation. Sometimes, even in losses, the advancement is what you learn and takeaway from a loss and how you adjust from it. Over the last few years, it felt like when the Royals would have big losing streaks, it was because they weren’t learning anything from what they were doing incorrectly. To put it another way, they kept making the same mistakes and expecting different results. That is the definition of insanity.

This year’s team? They are learning and making changes as they go. It sometimes will result in another loss, sometimes they will eke out a win. But learning is the key. The best part is the coaching staff is putting them in the best situation to win and giving them the tools they need. The last few years it felt like there were always more questions than answers. Now, there are answers to most of the questions. Folks, this a different Royals team than what you remember. It might not happen this year, but I firmly believe soon this will be a winning ballclub. And when that happens, I hope you are there for the ride. If anything, they are giving us hope and sometimes that is all we need.

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We’ve seen this Royals offense before & it’s a bad sequel

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When it comes to Kansas City Royals baseball, there are normally a few things you can always count on. They are normally a team that arrange a solid defensive unit out on the field, they’ve been known to compile a slew of fiery arms for their bullpen and maybe most notably to us fans, an offense that relies on putting the ball in play more than the average team.

While on the surface none of this sounds bad, it’s the Royals offense that has been put in question and for good reason. After coming off of a less than stellar 2021 season offensively the team barely did anything to improve on their lineup for 2022 and in fact have attempted to use the old ‘try the same thing again but expecting different results’ thinking for this year. Let’s just say this flawed belief should have all Royals fans up in arms.

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Let’s start by taking a look back at 2021. The Royals finished the year near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including last in walk percentage and next to last in wRC+. Besides the lack of walks (which has become a staple for Royals baseball for the last 30+ years), the power numbers in 2021 were very lackluster. Kansas City was last in home runs, next to last in the league in isolated power and barrel percentage, and 13th in slugging percentage and runs.

Now the Royals did actually hit the ball fairly hard last year, as they were 9th in hard hit percentage and 6th in exit velocity. But they also had the 5th highest ground ball rate and fly ball rate was 36%, 11th in the American League. Combine that with an average BABIP and you have a team that would hit the ball hard but a lot of times they found gloves.

While lack of walks and lack of power hurt them, the real killer for last year’s team was their plate discipline or more to the point, lack of. The Royals led the AL in swinging at pitches outside of the zone (O-Swing%) and swing percentage in general and were in the top five in swings and misses (SwStr %). Apparently the belief within the team was that when all else fails, keep swinging at pitches whether or not they are strikes. Considering how high their ground ball rate and infield fly ball rate was last year (IFFB %), it’s easy to see why this team struggled to score runs.

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So you would think with all of these issues surrounding the offense that the Kansas City front office would make improving the team’s batting at least a minor focal point this offseason, right? Nope. In fact, back in November Royals General Manager J.J. Piccolo sounded like he was fine with the group of bats they already had:

“Big time,” Picollo said of the priority on the bullpen. “We like a lot of our position players. Defensively, they were really sound. We’ve got a lot of promising starting pitchers that need to take that next step. But the bullpen is going to be what protects them.”

Defensively they were sound. Offensively, not so much. We are all aware that a lot of hope for the team’s batting this year was going to be focused on the rookies: Bobby Witt, Jr., Kyle Isbel, Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez and possibly even Vinnie Pasquantino. That is a lot of weight to put on the back of players who haven’t even played a major league game before this year.

Even back then, I felt like they were missing the boat on the offense or at the very least should go looking for a couple of veteran bats just in case. That way if the rookies struggle or the veteran bats continue to regress, they have an emergency plan in place. Instead, they did nothing.

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So where are we at so far in 2022? The Royals are last in runs scored and OPS, next to last in slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+, and 13th in Win Probability, Isolated Power and home runs. Somehow they are 9th in walk rate (I fully blame the White Sox series for this), and 8th in swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, two big issues they have had for years.

A big concern came while glancing at the Statcast numbers. Royals have an average Exit Velocity of 88.7 and a 36.3 hard hit rate. Throw in the 13.5% infield fly rate and a 43% ground ball percentage and you have a recipe for a pungent offense.

While the Statcast numbers are worrisome (and lower than last year’s numbers), this would be a good time to throw out there that offensive numbers are down all across the board in baseball. Whether it is the deadened ball, the humidors, a shorter spring training or even the weather, offense in general is not booming. This is affecting every team, not just the Royals. So there has to be at least a little leeway given to all of these factors. But the bigger picture is the concern here.

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While the weather will warm up and the Royals bats could as well, this is still a front office that saw all the issues with their run production and said “We are good with this. Let it fly.” It’s one thing to see the monster seasons that Pratto and Melendez put up last year and expect them to help your lineup when recalled. There are even numbers that show Hunter Dozier had a massive improvement in the second half of last year. But while you can point to those players and see the positive, you also have to look at the negative.

Carlos Santana is aging and probably won’t see his bat speed increase. Whit Merrifield has started regressing and even at his peak was praying at the altar of the BABIP Gods. Michael A. Taylor is a great defender…and that kind of sums up his offense. There were major flaws in the lineup last year and counting on a couple of rookies and aging vets to improve on those numbers is the definition of shortsighted. It feels like the Kansas City front office had a Plan A that was the best case scenario yet no Plan B in case there were issues.

The rookies very well might pick up the offense and help in a few of the categories (walks, home runs, etc.) that have plagued this team for years. Dozier is off to a good start and looks more like the 2019 version of himself. Andrew Benintendi is playing like a player wanting a contract extension. I’ll even say that the hitting development program in the minors has been a success and appears to be the impetus for the turnaround for both Pratto and Melendez (as well as the power numbers we have seen from Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez over the last few years).

But this also neglects the lack of depth in the organization and the issues that have arisen whenever players ascend to the major leagues. It’s almost like there is a disconnect between what is being taught in the minors and what is emphasized on the big league club. We’ve already seen that with the pitching, so maybe it is happening with the hitters as well.

The Royals have been a team for years that tried patterning their offense around Kauffman Stadium: spray hitters who could hit line drives all over the stadium and a couple of big boppers to drive them in. The problem the last few years is a reliance on hitters who don’t get on base enough and streaky power hitters. Which also leads to this:

72 runners left on base in their last 8 games. For those that struggle with math, that is an average of 9 runners stranded per game. Think about all the opportunities the Royals have had recently to score and how many times nothing happened. I can’t even count all the games I have turned off recently because I could tell by the 4th inning that the offense wasn’t going to do anything. This isn’t just a ‘this year’ thing or a ‘cold weather’ thing. This is a ‘the Royals have bad hitters’ thing.

I am fully aware it won’t be like this all year long. I know there will be periods where the Royals look like an offensive juggernaut and the last two weeks will be a distant memory. I know this because I have seen this film before and it plays out the same way every time. There are flashes of hope but at the end of the day the Royals front office is valuing the wrong things. Having good people on your team is a positive. Having good people who aren’t really good for the overall production of your team is not positive.

It has been said many times that the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again but expecting different results. Some of us have smartened up to the fact that while the names have changed, this whole thing plays out the way it always does. Until the front office starts putting value in performance and production over everything else, don’t expect too much.

3

Guessing the Royals Opening Day Lineup

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Here we are, the middle of February and normally we would be discussing the elation of pitchers and catchers reporting to camp. Instead, the players and owners are stuck in a grudge match that I can only assume includes table, ladders and chairs (Oh My!), putting a cease and desist order on not only the start of camp but also possibly Opening Day.

But I don’t want to discuss the doldrums that are “The Lockout”, so instead today I figured I would piece together what I think the Kansas City Royals Opening Day lineup will look like (whenever that happens). Sure, every Royals blogger known to man has probably already pieced together their thoughts on the topic, but I haven’t read any of them so whatever spills out here is purely one man’s thoughts on what we could be seeing in April…or sadly, maybe May.

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Catcher

This might be the easiest position on the team, as it is a no-brainer. After the 2021 season Salvador Perez had, he is a lock to start the year behind the dish. Salvy’s monster season will go down as one for the ages in Royals history and he definitely put a stamp on making sure to this point he is the greatest catcher in Royals history.

All that being said, we are getting closer to Salvy not being the “main man” behind the plate and in fact his successor might make his major league debut in 2022. MJ Melendez elevated his status within the Royals prospects rank in 2021 and won so many awards along the way that it would be foolish to ignore what he could bring to the Kansas City lineup.

The Royals have already discussed other positions for Melendez to play if he was recalled, including a short tryout at third base last year in AAA Omaha. Perez saw a hefty amount of time at DH last year and I would imagine that total continues to go up as the season wears on in 2022. All that being said, Melendez more than likely will start the year in the minors, so for now, Perez has a lock on the catcher position.

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Designated Hitter

By the end of last season, the DH spot became a revolving door for the Royals and no one player really had planted down permanent residence in the spot. I would expect the same in 2022 but to start the year, Carlos Santana is as good a candidate as any to fill the role.

Everyone knows Santana had a down year in 2021 and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Royals trade him, possibly even before the All-Star break. But to start the year, I would expect him on the Kansas City roster and filling a role either at first base or DH.

The Royals have a gaggle of first base/DH types either on the main roster or down in the minors and there already feels like there is a logjam between the two positions and Perez’s decline defensively is only going to make that worse. So while I picture Santana here to start the new campaign, the likelihood of him being around all season is probably slim and none.

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FIRST BASE

Speaking of down years offensively, Hunter Dozier had quite the doozy in 2021. In fact, it felt like a tale of two halves. Here are his numbers as we break up the two halves of his year:

Credit: Baseball Reference

While the core offensive stats (Homers, RBIs, doubles, etc.) are basically the same, the real “Tale of the Tape” is in the slash line. An almost 100 point increase in On-Base Percentage and an over 100 point jump in Slugging Percentage really points at how it felt like two different seasons for Hunter. Throw in the giant increase in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BAbip) and it’s easy to see why there are so many questions for Dozier to start a new season.

Now he did have a few injuries early in the year that played a part in those numbers, but it makes sense to question just what kind of production we will get from Dozier in 2022. But no matter how many fans want him gone, he just signed a new extension before last season and isn’t going anywhere. So why do I have him penciled in at first base?

Dozier struggled defensively last year for Kansas City, whether it was in the outfield or at third base. The one position he seemed at the very least ‘capable’ at was first base. Since I can’t imagine him not in the lineup to start the year, first base seems like the best position to hide the man without a position.

But we all know Nick Pratto is knocking at the door and by the time the year is done he will more than likely be manning the position. But to start the year, my guess is that Pratto starts in Omaha and makes his way to Kansas City either by hot streak or injury. So on Opening Day, Dozier appears to the the best answer. Where will he be by September? That is a question for a later time, albeit a good question.

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SECOND BASE

All these months later and I still can’t believe what we saw from Nicky Lopez last year. If there was a player on the Kansas City roster who took an opportunity and ran with it last year, it was Lopez. After being sent down near the end of spring training, he studied tape, adjusted his swing and when shortstop Adalberto Mondesi ended up on the injured list to start the year, Lopez was ready to step up…and step up he did.

All Nicky did was post a 4 win season (according to Baseball Reference), play Gold Glove defense at shortstop and became not just a replacement for Mondesi but a guy who will be in the lineup on Opening Day with absolutely no arguments. In a matter of months, Nicky turned around his career while also probably changing the trajectory of the Royals 2022 infield.

With all that being said, you might be wondering why I have him stationed at second base. First off, he is very familiar with the position and is a Gold Glove caliber defender at the position. Second, the Royals have a plethora of options in the infield and in some ways you can’t go wrong with the 3-4 options at pretty much any position. Third, there’s a certain top prospect that has worked himself into a spot in the lineup and that’s where we are headed to next.

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SHORTSTOP

The question going into this season wasn’t if Bobby Witt Jr. would be in the Royals Opening Day lineup but where. Witt has vaulted himself up almost every baseball prospect list and after last year it feels like he has nothing else to prove down in the minors. It is pretty much a lock that we will see Witt in the lineup from day one and nary an argument will be found.

So what position do you slot him in at? I’m going with shortstop, which is his main position. The Royals had him playing at either SS or 3B last year in the minors and even had tried him out at 2B and the outfield last year in spring training. But for an optimal defensive lineup, I would leave Witt at SS and let him play.

Could the Royals move him around this upcoming season? I would almost bet on it. Manager Mike Matheny has shown a tendency to move around and shuffle his lineups so I would almost guarantee Witt will see action at multiple positions in 2022. But the smarter move might be to keep him in one spot as long as you can to let him get comfortable in the major leagues before turning him into a chess piece to move around at a whim. Less will be more with Witt to start out and shortstop feels like the best landing spot.

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THIRD BASE

Third base felt like a black hole for Kansas City in 2021. It didn’t matter who you toss onto the position, they either struggled on defense or offense (or both). Near the end of the season, the team moved Adalberto Mondesi over to third base to not only see how he would do at the spot but also to try and keep him on the field. Mondesi only played in 35 games last year and 20 of them were at the hot corner in September.

So to start the 2022 campaign, Mondesi seems like the best fit for third base and it will be interesting to see if this becomes something that sticks or if the Royals have other ideas for him. I personally feel like Mondesi in a super utility role isn’t an awful idea, especially if it meant him playing both the infield and outfield.

Speaking of the outfield, I am a firm believer in trying Mondesi out in center field. As of right now the Royals don’t have a prospect firmly slotted for the position (Kyle Isbel is a possibility, but he could also be used on either corner position) and the team would be able to utilize his speed at the spot. But if the Royals were interested in that position change, they would have already tried it out. So for now, Mondesi appears to be only an infielder.

I could spill more words on Mondesi and his role on this team but for now third base feels like not only the best spot for him but also for the Royals. In all honesty, 2B/SS/3B could be almost any grouping of Mondesi/Lopez/Witt Jr. and Kansas City would be fine. I firmly believe they are all capable of playing all three of those positions so in some ways the Royals can’t go wrong with whatever configuration they end up deciding on.

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LEFT FIELD

I almost just wrote in Alex Gordon for left field in this Kansas City lineup. I’m pretty sure you understand; it was pure instinct. With 2021 being the first year in a long time with no Gordon out in left field, the Royals brought in Andrew Benintendi to take his spot in the lineup. The end results were very average, although he did win a Gold Glove award (which very few of us expected). It would appear the plan was to pencil in Benny again out in left, but what should we expect?

While the Royals were hoping for the 2018 version of Benintendi, he came a lot closer to the 2019 version that no one was really a big fan of. The problem is that at times last season we saw a guy who the Royals should be falling over themselves to sign to a contract extension…while other times we saw the guy that Boston was fine with dumping for Franchy Cordero. First, here is Benny’s number broken down by month:

Credit: Baseball Reference

May and September were great months for Andrew, but he was dealing with injuries for a good chunk of the summer so maybe some of that is to blame for his numbers during that span. But here are some splits that worry me:

Credit: Baseball Reference

For a guy who is supposed to be a gap hitter, it is frightening to see his numbers at Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman has one of the biggest outfields in baseball and should be a good spot for the type of hitter Benintendi can be. Instead, it feels like he tried to go deep way more than he should have and in all honesty, that is a hitting philosophy that has proven to be inefficient for him.

Benny is a lock to start the year out in left field, but if he is looking for a long-term deal, how he performs this year might be a sign of what his future is going to be in Kansas City.

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CENTER FIELD

First, the good news: Michael A. Taylor was so good defensively in 2021 that he won a Gold Glove.

Now, the bad news: if you are expecting Taylor to provide much offense then you will be very disappointed.

“The Taylor Experiment” appeared to at least pay off in that he came in to upgrade the defense in center field and he definitely accomplished that. It was just the hope for more offense never materialized and he ended up producing about the same as he did previously in Washington.

So while Taylor is back and will more than likely start the year as the regular center fielder, it also feels like the Royals don’t expect him to be the main guy all year. While center field isn’t a deep position for the organization, there is hope that Kyle Isbel can take over at some point in 2022 and provide more offense than Taylor did last season. Taylor is also around through 2023, so once the time comes for him to be a fourth outfielder, he can occasionally start while also filling in as a defensive replacement late in the game.

Until then, expect some great defensive plays out in center field that will have you cheering him this year followed by at bats that will make you the master of the “heavy sigh”.

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RIGHT FIELD

There are times I really wish Kansas City didn’t have so many infielders. Right now is one of those times, as the move that makes the most sense is to start Whit Merrifield out in right field. Yes, I realize he had an amazing defensive season at second base. But that is exactly why I wish they didn’t have so many infielders; you could then just slot him in at second and find someone else to man the outfield. But if we are trying to use logic here, Whit in right structures the lineup and the defense better for the Royals.

Now, this doesn’t mean he will play the whole year out there but I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw the largest chunk of that time patrolling the outfield at Kauffman. Maybe if Hunter Dozier played better defense out there or if Bobby Witt, Jr. wasn’t so good defensively at shortstop you could put one of them out in right field. Instead, Whit is almost being punished for being versatile. But it makes sense.

While I don’t want to pile on here (and I don’t want to be that guy) but I also believe we have started to see the beginning of the regression for Merrifield. His offensive numbers were noticeably down last season and while his BAbip and hard hit rate were up, both his strikeout and groundball percentages saw an increase. Merrifield is entering his age 33 season and while he could see a slight bump up this year, one would think some of these numbers will continue to see a slide in 2022.

Many said for years the Royals should trade Whit and Kansas City stood firm on their loyalty to him. The Royals front office can definitely be loyal to a fault and Whit will be another example of that. We all love what Merrifield brings to this team but we should probably accept the fact that his peak playing days are in the rear-view mirror.

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STARTING PITCHER

This was the one spot in the Opening Day lineup that I wavered on and if I’m being honest, no one in the Royals rotation felt like a great choice. So almost by default it would appear Brad Keller has the best chance of being the Opening Day starter in 2022.

We all know about Keller’s awful 2021 and how frustrating it was watching him from start to start. Every time you felt like he was getting his groove back, he would have a start that felt like a big leap backwards. If the Royals are going to be serious about contending in the next few years, fixing Keller should be one of the main assignments.

While Keller isn’t a lock in this spot, the only way one of the other starters take this spot would be if they had a jaw-dropping spring. Considering most of us have our concerns about the young arms in the Royals rotation and have even more concerns about Cal Eldred as the Kansas City pitching coach, it would be even more shocking if one of the youngsters broke from the pack this spring. It would be great to see a Daniel Lynch or a Jackson Kowar start dominating but it feels more and more like that is farther away than we originally thought.

So for now, Keller is my guess. I would love to be shocked by another option but that feels like a 2023 thing. Hopefully we get a different Keller than the one we saw in 2021 on Opening Day.

Credit: AP Photo/Tony Dejak

So here is how I would structure this lineup for Opening Day:

SS Witt, Jr.

RF Merrifield

LF Benintendi

C Perez

DH Santana

1B Dozier

3B Mondesi

CF Taylor

2B Lopez

SP Keller

So this is what I tend to believe the Royals Opening Day lineup will look like. It could drastically change between now and then if there are any injuries or any other acquisitions, but this feels like the best bet with what the Royals have right now. It’s not a blow-away lineup but it is one that needs to improve on it’s 2021 showing.

The interesting part will be to see what it looks like by the end of the season. With names like Isbel, Pratto and Melendez waiting in the wings, this could be a very different team in September than what we will see in April…or whenever the season actually starts.

0

A Season in Doubt

Credit: Kansas City Star

Up until Monday, things had been going fairly smooth for major league teams as they had opened up Spring Training 2.0 (or Summer Camp. Let’s be honest here: Summer Camp brings a grin to my face) and started getting ready for the 2020 campaign. In fact, there has been some great nuggets of info coming out for the Royals.

For instance, Josh Staumont is regularly hitting over 100 MPH on the radar. Sure, that’s not a big shock but it’s good to see the time up didn’t make it to where he would have to rev back up again.

Seuly Matias put on a power display the other day that made all his injury woes and slumps look like old news:

But there was also some troubling news from Royals camp over the 4th of July weekend:

Salvy appears to be asymptomatic. In case you are wondering, here is some of the criteria Perez would have to meet to get back into camp:

So while the news on Salvy wasn’t great or awful, the news filtering out on Monday for other major league camps was sobering:

and…

So teams are having issues getting their results back, which makes it hard to feel safe moving forward with any kind of team activity. In fact, we should probably point out that without accurate and timely testing, the idea of getting through a 60 game season feels like wishful thinking. It appears Nationals GM Mike Rizzo agrees with that sentiment:

At this point it is only fair to point out that I have been skeptical of having any sort of MLB season go off without any problems. Considering how as a country we have given up on dealing with this virus and have decided to play a dangerous game of chicken, it has felt like baseball (or any other sport for that matter) would be hard to pull off without seeing a start and stop at some point.

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In some ways, the idea of fitting in any semblance of a major league season has seemed foolhardy at best and irresponsible at worst. I as much as anyone misses baseball, but when Covid-19 cases are rising across our country over the last few weeks, it feels weird to think that any sport thinking “THIS” is the time to get going seems selfish. In fact it has been annoying to see baseball fans clamor for guys to ‘shut up and go play’ for the simple task of amusing us. If you can not see the dangers at hand for many of these players and how it could be an unsafe environment, then you aren’t really paying attention.

But baseball owners want to make at least some money this season. Players want to play, but is it worth it? We have already seen many stars opt out for this season, guys like David Price, Ryan Zimmerman,  Ian Desmond, and most recently Nick Markakis. Notice something similar in these players? Yes, they are all veterans:

It only makes sense that players who are in a good financial situation would weigh the risk and rewards of this season and decide sitting it out isn’t the worst thing in the world. In that same regard, it is easy to see how younger players who want to earn a big league job or at the least make an impression on the people in power in their organization would rate the reward a bit higher. In some ways, they don’t have the same options that a major league veteran would have.

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So what will it take before baseball shuts this all down? I tend to believe it will take more than it should if we are being honest. It might take a major outbreak, where the players testing positive reach double digits. It might take testing results interfering in actual games getting played. Or it might even take someone, whether it be a player, coach, umpire or even clubhouse attendant getting deathly ill to pull the plug. More than anything, it feels like it will take too long to make a decision that should be easy to make.

I guess that is my biggest concern: is it worth it to even attempt a season? If Covid cases across the country were slanting down and real effort was being put into keeping everyone safe, then having a season wouldn’t feel like a stretch. But I can’t sit here and confidently say things are being taken care of as they should when it comes to the health of everyone this could affect. Instead, it feels like a business opening too soon and causing unnecessary risk for the sake of $$$.

There is something to be said here about our need of entertainment during this global pandemic. Just like how players have to weigh the risk and reward to do this, I wish more fans would think about whether having baseball is really necessary for their entertainment. As a culture, many latch onto sports to fill some sort of need for competition, to give them a connection to people. That being said, there is a point where that need goes overboard and reality becomes an afterthought.

The reality is this virus is dangerous. The reality is that baseball is entertainment. As much as we all love the game, for me 60 games isn’t worth endangering lives and causing health issues for not only players, but also their families. I don’t think MLB is going to be able to pull off this season and I definitely don’t think we are going to see 60 games. The reality is that baseball comes in way behind containing the virus at this point. It’s too bad people in higher positions within the game don’t see that at the moment.

 

2

The Greatest Center Fielder in Royals History

For a franchise that has been around now for 50 years, you would expect some big names to fall under the radar when talking franchise best’s at certain positions. The Kansas City Royals are no different and while positions like third base or second base are no-brainers when it comes to the best in Royals history, other positions aren’t quite as easy.

For instance first base feels like a dogfight between Mike Sweeney and John Mayberry. At shortstop, arguments can be made for both Freddie Patek and Alcides Escobar. Even left field could get interesting, although Alex Gordon numbers tend to topple someone like Johnny Damon pretty easily.

But initially I thought center field would be a nice little battle, as the Royals have had some great players manning the middle the of the outfield in their history. It would be easy to see how someone could imagine a tug-of-war going on for the best at that position between Amos Otis, Willie Wilson and Carlos Beltran. Unfortunately, there is a blow away winner and he quite possibly might be the most underrated player in team history.

In fact, when I started this post I fully expected a nice back and forth between these three players before one of them would decidedly pull away and be considered the best center fielder. Instead, it didn’t take long looking at the numbers to see that Amos Otis is not only the best at this position, but that the other two aren’t really keeping it a close competition.

The other interesting part to this is that I’ve long felt Otis was vastly underrated when it comes to talking Royals legends. Royals fans spend a lot of time praising the usuals like Brett, White and Saberhagen but sometimes we forget what guys like Leonard, Cowens and Otis did during their time in Royal blue. In fact what I say next might even be the most shocking thing I mention today: Amos Otis might be the second best Kansas City Royal of all-time.

Before we get to that, let’s look at just how great his career was. Otis is second in Kansas City history in bWAR for position player, offensive WAR, runs scored, total bases, walks, stolen bases, runs created, times on base, sac flies, RE24 and WPA. Otis is also third in games played, plate appearances, hits, triples, home runs, RBIs, adjusted batting runs, adjusted batting wins, and first in Power-Speed #. In other words, he not only did a great job with accumulative stats, but also the ones that mattered in the most important situations.

I really thought Willie Wilson was going to make this a closer race, even while knowing that his power numbers weren’t going to even come close to the level that Otis had. While Wilson’s WAR numbers were right behind Amos (and defensively, Wilson had the higher total while Otis didn’t even crack the top ten), most of the other ones lagged behind a bit. It does say a lot about Willie, as he sits just under Otis in all-time Royals hits and runs scored, and even tops Otis in triples, stolen bases, and singles.

But stats like extra base hits and total bases I expected to be quite a bit closer and even runs created was a big gap between the two outfielders. It does appear that when Wilson’s numbers started declining in the mid 80’s, it was a lot more drastic than Otis’ gradual decline. While both men are mainstays when it comes to many of the Royals all-time offensive statistics, there is a noticeable gap between the both of them.

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When it comes to Carlos Beltran, his short stay in Kansas City ends up hurting his chances of taking top center field honors. In fact Beltran’s power numbers easily top Otis (he is top five all-time in slugging and OPS), but he also left the Royals in his prime and played in an era that was a bit more offensive driven. I do think that if the Royals had been able to lockdown Beltran rather than trade him ( and maybe that was possible if Kansas City ownership had made him more of a priority) this conversation could be a lot different. Instead, we are stuck with ‘coulda, shoulda’ type discussion that leans heavily toward ‘what could have been’.

Which leads us back to Otis. It seems clear that he was the second biggest offensive force in team history and the argument for being the second best player is close as well. According to Baseball-Reference WAR, Otis sits at 44.8 while pitchers Kevin Appier and Bret Saberhagen are at 47.1 and 40.7 respectively. If you wanted to say Appier or Sabes are right behind George Brett, I’m not sure I would put up much of an argument.WAR isn’t the be-all, end-all, but it does give you some weight on their overall value. To be fair, a stat like WPA holds quite a bit of weight with me and Otis and Appier are pretty close there too, 27.5 to 25.4.

So if we say Otis is the second greatest statistical Kansas City Royal of all-time, then it raises a number of questions on why he isn’t mentioned more often. I have to believe that his strained relationship with the media was a big part of it, as back in the 1970’s and early 1980’s, the media could make you or break you. It probably also hurt him that he played on a team with flashier players like Brett or Hal McRae. Whatever the reason, even within Royals circles, Amos Otis isn’t talked about as much as he should be.

Credit: Royals.com

As a younger fan, I just hardly ever knew much about Amos. Maybe it was because he left the Royals after the 1983 season and I started following baseball in 1984, but over the years Otis isn’t put on the same pedestal that other former Royals are. In fact most of us talk more about Bo Jackson (and justifiably we talk about this once in a lifetime athlete) than we do a guy who should be at least considered for the team’s Mount Rushmore. Amos Otis was very close to being a five-tool player (his power numbers were a bit lacking) and finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 1973 and 4th in 1978. For some reason, Otis has fallen into a background character rather than one pushing his way near the front of the line.

Credit: Focus on Sport/Getty Images

There is also a story that shows the person that Amos Otis really was:

On September 12, 1977, with Kansas City cruising to its second straight American League West crown, a game in Royals Stadium was postponed because of a drenching storm. As 16 inches of rain swamped the city and flooded many areas, eventually resulting in 25 deaths, Otis came across eight wet, frightened boys. He piled them into his Lincoln Continental, fed them, and lodged them for the evening. One of the youngsters to whose aid Otis came, Richard Brown, eventually became a Missouri state legislator and in 2017 sponsored a proclamation commemorating the flood and honoring Otis as a Good Samaritan and humanitarian. “I was doing what any other dad would have done,” Otis said

So while many us talk about George and Frank, Quiz and Bo, Sabes and Splitt, I hope moving forward that the name ‘Otis’ will get floated out there as well. The Royals have great, rich history and it feels like a shame that one of the biggest names doesn’t even get brought up as much as he should. Amos Otis is the greatest Royals center fielder in team history, case closed. Let’s hope we start talking about it more, Royals fans.

 

 

 

4

All Hail King George

Credit: Royals.com

On Friday, the greatest Kansas City Royal in history celebrated his 67th birthday. Yes, Hall of Famer George Howard Brett was honored by many this week, including MLB Network who aired a couple of interviews, a Royals feature and even a couple of classic games in George’s career. George was a “layup” for the Hall and is considered the 5th best third baseman in baseball history according to the Hall of Stats.

George was also my favorite player growing up and a big reason why I love baseball. Nothing beats watching Brett hustle on every play, diving or sliding for everything he earned. Watching George play was like watching a sprinter use every last ounce of strength to get themselves to the finish line; he had no idea how to half-ass anything. Looking back, it is easy to see how a whole generation of Royals fans look to Brett as the definition of what it means to be a Kansas City Royal.

All that being said, I realized today I have never really written an in-depth piece on George. Considering this blog has been around since 2012, it’s weird that I haven’t written thousands of words on what made him a great ballplayer. Maybe it’s because he is George Brett and we all know how great he was. Maybe it’s because I would drone on and on about the numbers that encapsulate his career and place in the fabric of the game. Or maybe I just don’t feel like I can do him justice.

Credit: Ron Vesely/Getty Images

So instead, I decided to veer in another direction. Today, I want to take a look at some of the greatest George Brett stories out there. While the numbers will speak of what a great ballplayer he was, the stories will define who the man truly was. Look, I am fully aware that Brett is no saint and some of us have heard (or even experienced) the horror stories involved when meeting a cranky George. He is human and I’m hoping we can take a look back at some of those great human elements that helped make him a one of a kind baseball great.

Credit: Getty Images

Let’s start with a great story told by a man who worked at a Cleveland strip club. While I’m sure you are already thinking something seedy is going on,  instead it is more of a look at his generosity:

“Here comes George Brett in the club—I recognized him right away—and I showed him to a chair and got him a complimentary drink. I ran the tables. And if I said somebody got a drink, they got a drink.”

In the Hustler bathroom, Door George is half-seated on the sinks with his head cocked in what the uninitiated might mistake for a parody of ‘fond recollection.’  Chris Brown’s “Don’t Wake Me Up” is blasting overhead and an upbeat announcer is imploring us to keep it going for a dancer of unseen endurance and felinity.

“This was ’87, and the Kansas City Royals were in town,” George goes on. “This was the year after Buckner let that ball go through his legs in the World Series. And, well, I didn’t recognize Buckner, but I recognized Brett. And somebody was giving Buckner a hard time on account of that ball going through his legs.

“And I took care of them, moved them to a more private table and got them drinks. And Brett, he appreciated it. He asks me ‘Can you come to the ballgame tomorrow night?’ And I say, sure.

“Next day, here comes a limousine and an envelope with $100 and two tickets to the game with a note thanking me for looking out for them.” George raises an index finger, the story’s not over.

“From that day on—I never saw him again in my life—but every time the Royals were in town, sure enough, I got an envelope with $100 and two tickets, up ’til the day he retired. That George Brett, now there was a classy guy.”

 

Many wondered why George came back to be a hitting coach for the Royals in 2013. Brett had spent years in the Kansas City organization after his retirement and never did any coaching outside of helping out a bit during Spring Training. But a story from a few years back in Arizona probably points out that the love of the game (and organization) is the biggest reason he helped out the team seven years ago:

Brett is smiling as he talks, shaking his head as he replays the moment in his mind. From the outside, especially recently, it’s easy to wonder if Goose Gossage and Oscar Robertson speak for all former stars when they go off on back-in-my-day rants.

But here is Brett, one of the greatest players of all-time, the man who so openly labels the 2015 Royals better than his own 1985 World Series champions, moved to goose bumps by a play in the first inning of a Cactus League game that most who watched have probably already forgotten.

This is part of what Brett loves about this time of year. He tried to be the team’s hitting coach a few years back and burned out after a few months. He figured that would happen. The hours are brutal, the travel is one of the main reasons he retired as a player, and he grew frustrated that his passion for hitting did not translate into a message he felt was helping.

But here, now, this is baseball in its simplest form. No planes. Little media. Just days full of ball, of seeing someone new, or something new, like a leadoff hitter turning a sharp liner to center into a double.

“I (freaking) love that,” he says. “It reminded me of Hal McRae, in the first game of the World Series in Kansas City against the Phillies.”

 

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention George the competitor. But of what made Brett so great was his ability to tap into a part of him that would not give up, no matter the circumstances. Even an injury wouldn’t slow down George, as told here by ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian:

 

 

 

If you have heard any stories from his bachelor days, you know that Brett enjoyed the night life during his prime and was quite the ladies man. That being said, his teammates had to know that if they went out with George, there was a chance they were going to be left at the bar as he might head out on a date. This was the exact predicament that Clint Hurdle and Jamie Quirk found themselves in during one of these “trips”:

“One night, the three bachelors went partying in Kansas, all in the same car– unusual, Hurdle says, because, “You don’t wanta depend on one of those guys for a ride” — and Brett found a date and went off with her. Hurdle and Quirk got back to the house at four in the morning, drunk, and discovered they had no key to the front door. And Brett was not at home, either. “We said, the hell with it,” Hurdle laughs. “I put my shoes up on the doorstep and slept on the lawn. A neighbor lady came out at about six thirty in the morning and asked if we wanted to come in the house.” Hurdle snorts. “There was dew all over us.”

Did such antics constitute a public nuisance? Did the neighbors complain? Hurdle shakes his head. “Everybody loved George.”

 

Brett was a big star by 1985 when the Royals made it into the playoffs. Around that same time, Chris Berman was being told by ESPN management to cut out his famous nicknames he had for players. Once George got wind of this, he was not happy . Here is the story told by Berman:

 

“I remember, I was very good friends with players my age, and one of the biggest fans of the nicknames was George Brett, Hall of Famer, great guy, great player. And they were going to the postseason. And I called him to wish him luck with a week to go or whatever it was, ‘Good luck, I’ll be rooting for you, I don’t know if I’ll get to the World Series or whatever it was, I don’t cover that, oh, by the way, I can’t do the nicknames any more.’ And he exploded over the phone. I said ‘Well, don’t worry about it,’ you know, whatever.”

“And I was not there at Game 1 (of the American League Championship Series), Kansas City played Toronto, and I guess all the news media gathered around him at the workout the day before, because he’s George Brett, right? And George Grande went up to him, one of the great people in our early anchors, one of our baseball guys, the baseball guy along with Lou Palmer then, and he said ‘George, can I get you?’ And [Brett] said ‘Wait a minute, hold on.’ And he unloads, not at George Grande personally, but ‘What is your management doing?! I’m not going to watch ESPN any more, they’ve told my guy he can’t do nicknames!’”

Among those in the circle was [USA Today sports media columnist] Rudy Martzke, who hadn’t been aware because it was not announced, right? Not ‘He’s not doing them anymore,’ because that would be stupid. But that got written up about eight places the next day, and I’m told that, in the 80s now, that the mail that came when people heard about it, was unprecedented at that time. I’m not saying that meant my stuff was great or this, but the people cared that much that they showered ESPN with letters in 1985. And next season, they were back and he [presumably the producer] was gone.”

So whether you love or hate the nicknames that Berman was doing, you have Brett to thank for them sticking around.

Most of you are fully aware of George’s infamous “Pine Tar Incident”. In fact I even did a “live tweeting” version of the full game right here on this blog a few years back. You would think a Hall of Famer wouldn’t want a moment where he goes loony to be the main moment people think of when your name is mentioned. But for Brett, it could be worse, as he explains:

 

“After the World Series in 1980, every city I went to, I was ‘The Hemorrhoids Guy,’ ” he said. “And you get these people sitting near the on-deck circle, and they have their pops. The first two or three at-bats, they don’t say anything. And then they get a few pops in them and they start making hemorrhoids jokes.

“Well, I heard every hemorrhoid joke in the world –- my best response is, ‘My troubles are all behind me.’ … From October of 1980 to July 24, 1983, that’s what I heard. And from that July 24 to 2013, now I’m the pine tar guy. So it’s really the greatest thing that ever happened to me. Thank you, Billy Martin. I went from having an embarrassing thing that people remembered me for to something positive.

“Pretty much every time I play golf, they always want to check my clubs for pine tar. If I’m playing with strangers or in a pro-am or some type of celebrity tournament, the gallery at every hole brings it up. It’s kind of funny the first couple of holes, but after a while it gets old. And of course, that’s what I’m known for. It could be worse.”

 

But the ultimate story is one you have probably heard and probably numerous times. If we are being honest, this story never gets old:

 

 

 

I don’t know whether I love this story more because here is a baseball Hall of Famer relating the time he crapped his pants, or because he just goes up to guys in Spring Training and is almost giddy telling them about his “accident”. No one is going to tell George to NOT tell that story, even if they don’t want to hear it.

Also…”Who’s the pitchers in this game?”

Credit: USA Today

So happy birthday, George. If anything, this was a reminder that while I still would have loved ‘George, the ballplayer’ no matter what, the fact that he is a charming and fun guy points out why he will always be my favorite. Brett is royalty, not only in Kansas City but in baseball. Nothing will ever change that…no matter how many times he eats bad seafood.

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The Season Where We Wait for Games to be Played

Credit: Jeff Roberts/Twitter

It feels weird to be sitting here in May with no baseball. No exhibition games, no random blowouts, no rainouts to be made up at a later date. Normally this time of year we are already digesting the numbers, figuring out who is for real and who is a fluke while going through the daily grind of following our team. Normally we are enjoying the game that never really gets tired for us as fans.

Instead, we sit here with what feels like an extended offseason, but with no roster moves. We wait to hear on just when we might have baseball again, only to be disappointed to find out nothing definite is on the horizon (Thanks, Trevor Plouffe). It truly is the unknown that will drive you crazy.

I don’t know about you guys, but when the world feels a bit heavy and I need to get away, I always have baseball to lean on. Whether you are watching a game, reading a box score or sifting through Baseball Reference, baseball is that “happy place” I can always dive into and feel better. But what happens when the game has been paused?

There are no numbers to crunch. No players to watch develop. No veterans to appreciate while you can. Yes, we are getting classic games to go back and watch and trust me, I have. I still get the goosebumps watching the 2014 Wild Card Game between the Royals and A’s and probably always will. But it doesn’t quite fit with what is going on right now.

You see, the problem isn’t only that games are not being played. It’s not only that most of us need some break from a news feed that is constantly regurgitating unsettling statistics about this pandemic that reaches that part of your insides that want the best for your fellow humans (sorry, too close to home?). No, the bigger issue is that this game we love, the one that most of us have adored since we were children, is laying a big goose egg and there is not a game in sight to help us avoid a reality where nothing but bad news fills the air.

Go ahead and take your pick on what baseball news you find the most disturbing. How about the purging of minor league teams? Ever since the idea was floated out, it has felt like an awful choice. This outbreak appears to be the final nail in the coffin for some of these teams and there is no good coming from less baseball, even at a lower level.

Credit: Ross D. Franklin, AP

How about the cheating scandal within the game of baseball? The Astros have been punished and a few coaches careers have taken a slight detour but it felt like Boston received a slight slap on the wrist and this shutdown has allowed baseball to sweep all the ugly bits under the rug. I’m not saying we should continue to dwell on this issue until the end of time, but it also seems as if baseball got their ‘Get out of Jail Free’ card and are running with it.

There was even talk of adding MORE teams to the playoffs, ruining what would appear to be a playoff system that has really flourished over the last few years. I have yet to see a reasonable explanation for why this would be a good plan and hope if anything that with everything else going on that this idea is now swimming with the fishes.

All this without even mentioning how baseball can come back while keeping everyone safe, and I do mean everyone. This issue was addressed earlier today by Nationals pitcher Sean Doolittle:

This is a long thread, but there are some very important issues that hopefully are being discussed as we speak. It’s not just the players whose safety we have to look out for as there are also staff members, coaches, umpires, vendors, security, grounds crews, etc..you get the picture. You would need a multitude of tests and I seriously hope MLB would be able to receive all that is needed.

Credit: AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

This isn’t even mentioning the news that came out on Monday about a proposal that owners have put together to present to the player’s union. In fact one tidbit appears to be an instant sticking point:

Yes, things don’t look good. I haven’t even mentioned the MLB Draft for this year and how it could end up only going five rounds. I honestly don’t know what good actually comes from all this. I really don’t. It feels like baseball needs an overhaul and the people in charge appear to be seeing things from a very small ($$$) perspective. It truly is a sad state of affairs.

Normally, when the games infrastructure is failing, I can always digest games to take my mind off of negligence of the business side of the game. Unfortunately, there are no games to distract me. Sure, I’ve taken in some KBO games and enjoy the action. But it doesn’t have the same feel that I am looking for.

Maybe this is what baseball needs. Maybe MLB needs all this chaos to go on to fix the problems that have been piling up. It has felt the last few years that the players and owners were on a collision course and the result would be changes that are needed for everyone involved.

Maybe things have to be torn down so they can be built back up again. It’s not like the game is that far away from being everything we really wish it was. There will always be flaws, ugly habits in the game that linger for years. But they always appear to right the ship.

That could be the saving grace of this pandemic. Yes, we have to suffer through a (mostly) lost season. But in the end, some areas of concern could be fixed. That is what baseball needs. I just hope cooler heads prevail.

Strap yourself in. This ride is going to get bumpy.

 

0

He’s Back

Credit: Getty Images

If you spent the winter fretting over whether Royals outfielder Alex Gordon was going to come back to Kansas City or retire, this past week’s news that Gordon was returning on a one-year, $4 million dollar deal should have been a relief. Gordon has been with the organization since he was drafted by Kansas City back in 2005 and has been in the big leagues (outside of a few trips to the minors) since 2007. Gordon is the link between the past and the future, a man who has been around longer than even GM Dayton Moore. When you think of the Royals over the last dozen years, you probably think of Gordon.

Gordon is everything that is good about this organization. Whether it’s the charity work, the countless hours spent on honing his game, the learning curve of leaving third base behind to roam the outfield while at a career crossroad, the defense in left field, the home runs in the postseason and even the struggles over the last four seasons, Alex Gordon has been a constant and the closest thing they have had to George Brett since he retired in 1993.

With all that said, not everyone is happy that Gordon is coming back. Some will argue that a man who is entering his age 36 season will just hold back a younger player who could receive valuable playing time this season if Gordo had stayed home. Some will point out that his best offensive season since 2016 was last year, and even then he could only muster an OPS+ of 96, which is just a smidge under league average. Some will say it is time to move on and let the past stay in the past, as a new era of Kansas City Royals baseball is getting ready to begin.

Photo Credit by Rob Tringali/MLB via Getty Images

But I’m not one of those people. I actually think the best thing for the Royals this season is for Gordon to be in tow. To me, having Gordon back gives this organization some stability as they maneuver into uncharted waters with a new owner and a new manager. To me, the script for the Royals this season just wouldn’t feel right without Alex out in left field.

So today, let’s weigh the positives and negatives of this signing. There are easily a nice dose of both and I will even admit that I see some of what the naysayers are saying when they view this as a poor signing. So let’s take off the “fan” hat for just a moment and put on our “subjective” hat and dissect the return of Alex Gordon.

First let’s look at Alex’s offense. As I said earlier, he did post what I will generously list as a league average season offensively in 2019. With that being said, he did improve his strike out rate, he saw a slight increase in his power numbers (including ISO) and improved his on base stats. But it doesn’t change the fact that at 36 years old, Gordon is a league average hitter at best and history has shown us that most players are likely to regress moving forward rather than improve. He will get on base at a decent clip, provide some power off and on, but his days of being an offensive force are essentially over.

Is Gordon blocking a younger player from getting quality playing time? This is a bit harder to really estimate, but there are two younger players (Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling) who an argument could be made would receive playing time if Gordon had not re-signed.

At this point, it’s not really known if Starling would receive the extra playing time no matter what. Bubba got a chance to show what he could do the last few months of 2019, and while defensively he might be the Royals best in the outfield, offensively he struggled. Over 197 plate appearances, Starling put up an OPS+ of 50 (league average is 100) and posted a negative WAR from both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Add in that he has only had two minor league seasons where he was an above average hitter, and it just appears that Starling is better suited to being a 4th outfielder or defensive replacement.

When it comes to Brett Phillips, there is at the least an argument that he should receive more playing time. Phillips struggled again in the big leagues in 2019 (.138/.247/.262, 35 OPS+), but showed some progress in AAA. From June 1 to August 13, Phillips hit .277/.404/.613 over 238 plate appearances and while he still struck out a decent amount (52 times over 58 games), he also walked 40 times and combined for 28 extra base hits.

The changes didn’t really transfer over during his time in the big leagues last year, but he did enough to at least get an audition at some point in 2020. Gordon being back in the picture might hinder that a bit, but you can say the same thing when the Royals acquired Maikel Franco and moved Hunter Dozier to right field. If the Royals were confident in Phillips, Franco wouldn’t have been signed. Gordon coming back appears to have been expected all along, so his return doesn’t appear to be the one blocking Phillips from playing time.

Credit: Royals.com

Gordon’s defense is still a plus for the team, as shown by him winning another Gold Glove award this offseason. He isn’t quite the defender he was in his prime, but he is still considered among the elite at his position. He might be a step or two slower, but he makes up for it with positioning and knowing how the ball moves as it makes its way to left field.

More than anything, it feels that Gordon is at a point in his tenure in Kansas City where he decides his own fate. You can’t blame the front office for wanting Gordon to stay in the fold, as his leadership and work ethic alone gives him value to the organization. There might not be any better stories than the ones told by younger players who want to prove themselves by showing up early in spring training and proving to management their dedication to making the team…only to find Alex Gordon is already there and has been working out for awhile. Gordon is the bar to climb towards in the organization and is the model when it comes to putting your all into being a part of the Royals.

So after 13 years, Gordon should be the one to decide whether he comes or goes. He doesn’t strike me as a player who will stay past his welcome and the Royals don’t appear to be a club that would allow that to happen. Considering that Kansas City will want to keep him in the organization whenever his playing career is over, allowing him to go out on his terms seems like the smart and respectful thing to do for the guy who has only wanted to play for one team.

Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images

So while we are looking at the twilight of his career, it makes more sense to keep Gordon around than to not. We shouldn’t expect him to be any more than he has been these last few years and there is a good chance we don’t even see him take the field for more than 150 games in 2020. But considering all the reasons to let him go, keeping Gordon around feels like the right thing to do for this Royals team.

While some fans (like myself) love the numbers involved in baseball and even make suggestions based on those numbers, sometimes keeping a player around has very little to do with the statistics. Sometimes the right thing is to bring back a player who has been the core for this Royals team for the last ten years. Gordon has all the attributes that we love in our baseball players and has earned that respect.

If anything, the Houston Astros have proven over the last four months that structuring an organization based purely off of winning and losing allows for behavior that can be detrimental for any team. For as much grief as we give Dayton Moore, one of the characteristics that he should be applauded for is creating a family atmosphere within the Royals organization. Alex Gordon is the one of the wise father’s of this club and instead of looking at the possible negatives, I’m choosing to look at the positives as he makes his final turn around third base. Gordo has earned it.

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