Tag: baseball

Is It Time For a Beltran-Royals Reunion?

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
May 30, 2003.

With the trade deadline looming about six weeks away, it is the time of the year where speculation runs rampant. In fact, be prepared for so many rumors during this time period that you can probably discard about 3/4 of them from your brain. One rumor that I can guarantee you will hear a bunch moving forward is whether or not the Kansas City Royals will visit a reunion between themselves and current New York Yankee Carlos Beltran. For the uninformed, Beltran actually began his big league career in Kansas City, playing there from 1998 through the middle of the 2004 season, when he was dealt to Houston. The Royals even attempted to sign him before the 2014 season; but despite a spirited try, Beltran decided to head back to the bright lights of New York City. So should the Royals bring Beltran back to the midwest? Let’s take a look.

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When this subject was initially broached to me back in May, I scoffed. I just didn’t believe that Beltran, at 39 years old, was a good fit for the Royals. He is a below average defender now, which probably leaves him in the position to DH more than anything else and the Royals have Kendrys Morales, who is also without a defensive position in the field. Add in his age and how batters are normally in full-blown regression at this stage of the game, adding Beltran didn’t seem like a step forward for Kansas City. But as we sit here in June, Morales is still struggling and Beltran has done something I wasn’t expecting: his numbers have gone skyward during this last month. With that said, let’s break those numbers down a bit farther to see if he would be a good fit in Kansas City.

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(Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY)

Let’s start with the basics. Beltran’s line so far this year sits at .282/.316/.573 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s. To really grasp this, for the entire 2015 campaign, Beltran hit 19 homers and knocked in 67 runs while hitting .276/.337/.471. I like to dig deeper though, to fully weigh just how everything breaks down. Beltran’s OPS+ currently sits 135 compared to 120 last year and unless something drastically goes awful, has the same bWAR(1.0) as he did in 2015. His walk rate is down by quite a bit from 2015, as his strike out rate has gone up, but I tend to think you can link those together a bit with the increase in power. In fact, Beltran’s ISO this year has rocketed up almost one hundred points from last year, .291 from .195.

MLB: Spring Training-Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
(Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY

Now to the real meat and potatoes that I feel will give us a good grasp of Beltran’s performance; how hard is Beltran hitting the ball and how often? In an interesting swerve, Beltran’s line drive rate is down(18.3%), his ground ball rate is up(39.6%), while his fly ball rate is the same from 2015. But his Home Run to Fly Ball ratio has doubled(22.5% from 11.1%) while his hard hit rate has gone up(36.7%) and his soft hit rate is down(11.2%, the lowest it has been since 2006). This goes in line with his exit velocity this year, which has been above the league average for all but two weeks this year:

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As you can tell, Beltran’s exit velocity has been above 92.5 MPH for a large chunk of the 2016 season, an increase from 2015. In fact last year barely saw him get in the 95 MPH range:

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So what does all this tell us? It tells me that Beltran seems to be not only seeing the ball very well this year but is also hitting the ball with some authority. This is a good sign for Beltran, as he is not getting beat by the fastball, a common occurrence for player’s his age. In fact Beltran has been within 5% of his hits coming on fastballs for the last six seasons. It’s a bit odd to see a hitter staying close to his same numbers near the tail end of his career, so the fact that Beltran’s hit selection hasn’t seen a drastic change is a good sign if Kansas City wanted to go after him.

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
June 1, 2003.

One more positive from Beltran’s numbers is that there isn’t a drastic difference between when he hits from the right or the left hand side of the plate. Against right-handed pitching he is hitting .289/.318/.563 while against left-handed pitching he is hitting .280/.321/.587. I’m actually a bit surprised by this, since Beltran plays his home games at Yankee Stadium, which has that short right field porch. All you have to do to hit it out of Yankee Stadium is to hit the ball 314 feet to right field and you have yourself a home run. This would seem to benefit Beltran when he bats left handed, which he does the majority of the time(142 at bats hitting left handed, 75 right handed). But just peeking at the stats show that there isn’t a giant split in those numbers, which tells me he is just flat-out raking, not just taking advantage of his home surroundings. I’m sure Beltran’s numbers are a tad skewed because of his stadium(11 of his 16 home runs are in New York) but if you are looking at the entire offensive package, Beltran is putting up solid numbers almost everywhere, including his four games in Oakland. If there were concerns about Beltran coming to play in Kansas City and hitting in a pitcher’s park like Kauffman Stadium, I would tend to lean toward that not being a big issue moving forward.

MLB - Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
May 31, 2003. 

So after looking at all of Beltran’s numbers, the question will be asked again: should the Royals look into bringing him back? I can’t believe I am going to say this but yes, I think they should. With Morales continuing to struggle and the combo of Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando starting to come down to earth, it might be a good time to take a flyer on Beltran. The Royals shouldn’t give up a major prospect(or a needed piece of the current roster) for Beltran, but I tend to think New York won’t ask for something like that. Beltran’s contract only runs through the rest of this season and there have been whispers that he might decide to retire once the season is up. It’s conceivable to think the Royals could take on his contract for the last few months of the season and see if he can help them offensively. It would be assumed that Beltran could see some time in right field(especially if Morales starts to hit) but it makes sense for him to mostly be a DH if he came to Kansas City. The Royals have had some offensive struggles as of late and adding a solid bat for the stretch run might be just what this team needs. While the Royals haven’t looked like a contender during this most recent road trip, as I type this they are only four games out of first place in the American League Central, or within striking distance. Reuniting Beltran with the Royals(plus Alex Gordon returning from the disabled list) might be just what the Kansas City offense needs. Since we all love feel good stories, can you think of a better one than the future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, returning to the team that he began his career with, and helping them reach the playoffs for the third consecutive season? Sounds like the storybook ending that Beltran’s career deserves.

 

 

 

 

1

Minnesota Love

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It’s a tough time to be a Minnesota Twins fan. After an unexpected second place finish in the American League Central in 2015(and competing for a playoff spot into the last week of the season), the belief was that the Twins would take another step forward in 2016. Minnesota was expected to grow from last year’s success, especially with the addition of some top-level prospects being around all year(Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton) and the addition of Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, so it appeared that second year manager Paul Molitor had a contender on his hands. I definitely had bought in, as I expected the Twins to garnish a playoff spot this year, with my belief being that they had a great mix of veterans, youngsters and a great leader in Molitor. Instead this year has felt like a horror show, as they are 14.5 games out of first in the Central, 13 games below .500. But this isn’t a brow beating on this year’s Twins team as much as it’s a look back at my fondness for a team that was a big part of my childhood.

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Now, I am a devoted Kansas City Royals fan and have been since I was 7 years old; that will never change. But in 1987 I couldn’t help but root for a fun Minnesota Twins team that would go on and win the World Series that year. What really started my ‘Minnesota Love’ was Kirby Puckett. Puckett was everything great about baseball; a cherubic center fielder who could hit, run and play defense and had elevated himself to be one of the great players in the game. I loved watching Puckett run around the outfield, then step to the plate and rack up hit after hit. He fit in perfectly in the 1980’s, an era of contact hitters like Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs and Don Mattingly. Puckett also seemed to have a child-like grin on his face at all times, leaving the impression that he was having as much fun playing the game as we did watching him. Puckett was a perennial All-Star, a guy who averaged 192 hits a season throughout his 12 year career, multiple time Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner and was voted in the top ten of the American League MVP ballots 7 of his 12 major league seasons. I know some have questioned whether or not he should have been a Hall of Famer, but in my eyes there was never a question. Puckett was one of the best throughout his career and one can only imagine what his final numbers would have been had glaucoma not taken his sight. There were some less than flattering moments for Puckett post-career but Puckett the ballplayer was a joy to watch play.

New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins
(Photo by Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images)

Once you looked at the rest of the roster, there was a nice group of players who were easy to root for. Kent Hrbek was the lovable, goofy first baseman with power. Dan Gladden, current Twins radio broadcaster, played like his hair was on fire and was the spark plug at the top of the lineup. Frank Viola was the left-handed ace who had elevated himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Bert Blyleven was nearing the end of his career but still fun to watch. I also can’t forget Juan Berenguer, a guy who did not fit the normal physique of a major league ballplayer but was a pivotal part of the Minnesota bullpen. Even the 1991 World Series team was easy to root for, with Puckett, Hrbek, Gladden and pitchers like Scott Erickson and Kevin Tapani holding down the rotation and Rick Aguilera closing out of the pen. The Twins had players who were fun to watch and it always appeared as if Tom Kelly led teams played more as a team and weren’t as focused on individual numbers. As the Royals have shown these last few years, if you play as a team there is a good chance that winning is part of the formula.

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Speaking of Kansas City, there is a deep connection between those late 1980’s/early 1990’s Twins team and the Royals. Many of the Twins who helped Minnesota win those two World Series’ would eventually spend time in Kansas City. Gary Gaetti, the Twins third baseman for both championship teams, would eventually move onto the Royals and would even hit 35 home runs for Kansas City in 1995. Greg Gagne was a pivotal part of those Minnesota teams and he would go on to play three seasons in Kansas City at shortstop; his offense wasn’t anything to write home about, but his defense got him 4.8 dWAR during that period. Chuck Knoblauch would play his last major league season for the Royals, producing a -0.7 bWAR in just 80 games. Chili Davis would end up in Kansas City in 1997, hitting 30 home runs and posting 2.4 bWAR. As if that wasn’t enough, Berenguer pitched for the Royals earlier in his career, while backup catcher Sal Butera’s son, Drew, would later play for the Twins and is the current backup receiver in Kansas City. So in a roundabout way, I got to see a few of the bigger pieces of those championship Twins team’s contribute in a Royals uniform.

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But it wasn’t just the players or the style of baseball they played that made me intrigued by the Twins. As a kid, I was enamored with the Metrodome, warts and all. Here was this domed stadium that had character and didn’t have the feel of cookie cutter stadiums like Three Rivers or Veterans Stadium. Minnesota had the “baggie” out in right field(which is now a handbag), and a roof that looked spectacular but was easy for fielders to lose a pop fly in. The crowd always seemed raucous and during the playoffs the fans would wave their “Homer Hanky” to get the team going. There seemed to be a whole atmosphere to that stadium that I wanted to be a part of  and that lured me into wanting this team to succeed. Sure, I had heard stories about the stadium being broken down, cold, drab and being nothing but a big slab of concrete, but that didn’t seem to matter to me much. It just seemed like a fun place to watch a baseball game from. I still get goosebumps when I think back to Game 163 of the 2009 season, when the Twins and Tigers battled it out in the dome for the Central Division title. Here was a stadium that being replaced the next season but it was going to get one more thrilling, iconic moment before it was gone. The Metrodome might not have had the beauty of Kauffman Stadium(yes, biased), the legend of a Wrigley Field or the visual classicism of a Camden Yards, but it had its own nuances that would grow on you. I never got to attend a game at the Metrodome, which saddens me, but I was able to be at Target Field a few years back. While I liked Target Field and think it is a solid replacement for the Metrodome, I have a feeling it won’t match up when it comes to the character of that old dome.

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You would think that with the Twins being in the same division as my Royals I would loathe them and wish for them to just go away, but I don’t. I have very fond memories of the Twins and most years wish them the best. Well, I always hope they don’t do as good as Kansas City, but otherwise I want them to have success. It blows my mind sometimes when I think back and remember there was a period where baseball considered contracting the Twins. This is an organization with rich history and the idea of a baseball team not being up in Minnesota is unfathomable. When I go back and think about baseball highlights in my life that I will play over and over in my head, there are a number of Twins highlights that will live on forever. Puckett’s catch, Larkin’s single, Morris’s pitching and Casilla’s single; all are memories etched in my head forever. For that, I thank Minnesota. Thank you for making my childhood brighter and my adulthood memorable. I still kinda love ya.

 

1

Problem Child

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On Tuesday evening, the insecure part of Yordano Ventura got the best of him. After Manny Machado had some words for Ventura in the 2nd inning for pitching inside, Ventura’s pride got the best of him during Machado’s next at bat, as Yordano drilled him in the back with a 99 MPH fastball, his fastest pitch of the evening. To say it illicited a response is a bit of an understatement:

Most everyone felt like Yordano was past this, after the numerous encounters he had last year that got him in trouble. Instead, once again he allowed his emotions to run the show. This leaves the Royals in a bit of a pickle, since management, coaches and even players are tired of his behavior. So the question has to be asked: What do the Royals do with Yordano Ventura moving forward?

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Since the circus that Ventura created spun out of control last night, there have been rumors that the Royals had talked to other front office executives about Ventura in possible trade talks. In my opinion, Ventura will not get traded any time soon. For one, his value has never been lower. It would make no sense for Kansas City to trade an arm like Ventura at his lowest value. Second, the Royals are having issues currently with their starting rotation so it would make no sense to trade away the starter with the highest potential out of their current crop of starters, especially with no relief to be seen down in the minors. So if Venura was to get traded, it probably wouldn’t be until the offseason or even next season.

Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Indians
(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

So if Ventura is staying, the Royals need him to perform much better than he has this year. Through 12 starts this season, Yordano has issued the most walks in the American League, while posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career(6 strikeouts per 9). His ground ball percentage is down(44%) while his fly ball rate has rocketed(39.4%, up from 27.2% last year), which has also seen his home runs per 9 to go up as well. Basically, Ventura is getting hit harder than ever before and is way above the league average when it comes to the exit velocity off of his pitches:

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2016 is his third season in the big leagues and the advances that the Royals have expected from him just are not happening. There are still glimpses of the “ace” the Royals think he can be, but those become fewer and farther between each start. After Tuesday’s start, Ventura’s ERA rose to 5.32 while his FIP elevated to 5.29. Normally this would force him to the bullpen or even down to AAA, but the Royals just don’t have the starting pitching to let that happen. Instead, they need him to get his head on straight and at least produce like a league average pitcher.

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So do the Royals at least have some options with Ventura? If you mean ‘can he be sent to the minors’ the answer is yes. He still has options left, so a trip to Omaha isn’t completely out of the question. In fact, I would think that Ventura is on a short leash with the coaching staff and if they feel he needs to work on something in the minors, then he will be sent down. One comment made after the game on Tuesday I did find interesting, especially when it comes to what Ventura has been told by the coaching staff. Here is Orioles manager Buck Showalter who said this:

 

“No, I don’t like when any of my guys are put in harm’s way, especially a guy throwing that hard and having some problems with his command tonight. But [its] not the first time. Obviously, it must be something that’s OK because he continues to do it. It must be condoned. I don’t know.”

Now, I take umbrage with this. No way does the Kansas City organization approve of what Ventura did. That implication by Showalter just isn’t true:

The Royals had squashed that “bad boy image” from last year and the team had moved on from those problems. Ventura has been the only one who still seems to think that reacting in this manner is appropriate. So much bad could have come from this, whether it meant another player getting hurt(and lets be honest, the Royals already have enough players injured), or starting a feud that would distract from focusing on the main goal, which is winning games and eventually, returning to the playoffs. There is no way to know for sure, but I would guess Ventura spent Tuesday night and Wednesday in meetings with teammates, the coaching staff and possibly even upper management. Ventura is at a point in his career where he needs to fix his mentality. I made a comment on Tuesday night about how Ventura’s problem was not his arm, but what is in between his ears. Adam Jones of Baltimore might have said it better than I did:

Yordano has to fix his mental approach during the game. It could be learning yoga, or talking with a therapist or even Jason Kendall’s ‘Tough Love’ approach, but a change has to happen. If it doesn’t, he will have more to worry about than just being dropped from the Royals rotation.

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There are many reasons for the Royals to not give up on Yordano; he just turned 25, he has a team friendly contract that runs through 2019 and he has an electric arm that can be dominate when he wants to. But that is the thing-when he wants to, not all the time or even most of the time. Many young pitchers, especially those with dynamite stuff, struggle early in their career because they believe it is all about the velocity and not as much about the location or changing speeds. Ventura mentally seems younger than his age when it comes to maturity and hasn’t figured out how to deal with adversity. For Ventura to be a part of the Royals future, he has to learn how to let adversity roll off his back and learn from it. Otherwise, he will just be another in a long line of starters the Royals have failed to develop. This is the fork in the road; it’s time for Yordano to figure out which path he wants to take.

6

Will The Real Danny Duffy Please Stand Up?

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When a new baseball season begins, there are certain definites that we are guaranteed and don’t even have to worry about. Mike Trout will put up MVP caliber numbers, Clayton Kershaw will pitch like he is the second coming of Sandy Koufax, and Bartolo Colon will make you smile at some point. There is also this definite for any Kansas City Royals fan: Danny Duffy will make you shake your head at some point. Sometimes it’s for how good he is pitching, other times it will be for how inconsistent he is pitching. Danny Duffy might be one of the hardest players to really put your finger on and he is continuing his mystifying act so far in 2016.

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Duffy started the year in the bullpen for the Royals, but was soon summoned to the rotation when both Chris Young and Kris Medlen came down with injuries. Danny would make his first start of the season on May 15 and (on a limited pitch count)would put forth a starling effort. On that Sunday, Duffy would throw 48 pitches in 3 innings of work, giving up 1 hit, and no runs while allowing 2 walks and striking out 5. Over the next three starts, Duffy would gradually increase his pitch count, which also meant he was pitching deeper into each game. But that wasn’t the only improvement by Duffy over those next three starts.

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Over his last three starts, Duffy has not walked a single batter, striking out 14 over 15.2 innings, which feels like a minor miracle if you have followed Duffy’s progression over the last three season. One major obstacle for Duffy throughout his career has been the ability to pitch efficiently, both as a way to keep his pitch count lower and to avoid allowing extra runners on base with walks. Since 2012, Duffy’s walks per 9 have been a bit high: 5.86, 5.18, 3.19, and 3.49. So far this year he has lowered it considerably, down to 1.72 over 36 total innings. Allowing less runners, no matter the situation, is always a plus and Duffy lowering his walks has made him a more efficient starter in a small sample size.

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While Duffy’s walks are down, his average velocity is up so far this year. Now, part of that reason is his early stint in the bullpen, where he was able to air out the ball in his 16 outings in relief. But over these last four starts, he has maintained his increased velocity with only a slight difference being seen between his stint in the pen and his work in the rotation:

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What it also looks like is that Duffy has ditched his slider for the most part and decreased his use of the cutter. Instead, Duffy has been throwing his two-seam fastball at a higher rate(15% compared to 4% last year) and his change-up has been used as a bigger weapon as well(13% compared to 95% usage last year). This actually explains a lot of the velocity increase, as a cutter is normally 2-5 MPH slower on average compared to a 4 or 2 seam fastball. Duffy seems to be using his change-up enough to keep batters on the look out for it while then using his fastball as his ‘out pitch ‘. In fact, Duffy’s swinging strike out percentage this year has seen an uptick (from 14% to 25% this year) while his strike out’s looking has taken a dive(25% to 19%). Rather than fooling batters this year, Duffy is throwing the cheese and forcing hitters to try and hit his 95 MPH+ fastball, a strategy that maybe should have been used earlier in his career.

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Hitters are also not hitting the ball as hard off of Duffy this year. On average, Duffy has been below league average most weeks when it comes to the exit velocity off his pitches:

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In fact, Duffy’s soft hit percentage has increased this year(up to 26%) while both the medium and hard hit percentages have gone down (48% and 26% respectively). Hitters are just not hitting the ball as hard off of him this year which has  helped turn him from a pitcher with potential to be a solid mid-rotation starter to one who could actually achieve that status if he keeps it up.

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So which Danny Duffy is the real Duffy? History would say that Danny will come back down to earth and pitch less consistently than he has over his four starts. But all the numbers tell a different story, that of a pitcher who has changed his approach on the mound and might have unlocked a secret to success. Duffy is throwing more strikes(his first pitch strike percentage is up, as is the amount of 0-2 counts he is throwing), and allowing less walks which is also knocking down his pitch counts. On Wednesday, Duffy threw just 75 pitches in 6 innings of work(51 of those pitches were strikes) and if he can keep that kind of efficiency up, there would be no reason to think he couldn’t be the starter the Royals have longed him to be. The one slight on GM Dayton Moore’s record has been the inability to produce productive starting pitching during his tenure in Kansas City. If Duffy can be what they always envisioned him to be, that would go a long way toward improving the rotation and improve Moore’s track record with starting pitching. It might have taken longer than expected, but we could finally be seeing the ‘Real’ Danny Duffy, the one we always knew we wanted.

0

Opportunity Knocks

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(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

This past Sunday, Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon and third baseman Mike Moustakas collided in foul territory chasing after a fly ball. The collision looked nasty for both parties, with it seemingly being worse on Gordon, as he seemed to bang his head on the back of the tarp lined against the stands. Gordon was taken out of the game in the following inning and the news for him dropped on Monday:

The initial diagnosis was that Gordon would miss about 3-4 weeks , which would mean Gordon will probably be back in late June:

Moustakas meanwhile was considered “day to day”(but aren’t we all) by the club with a contusion to his knee. Moose had sat out the entire three game series in Minnesota this week and went in for more tests on Thursday. The news was not positive:

A torn ACL is bad news, as it means Moustakas will be out for the remainder of the 2016 season, a season that saw his power numbers soar. With the Royals losing two All-Stars for a significant amount of time, this means that someone will have to attempt to fill their shoes. It appears for the moment that Cheslor Cuthbert and Brett Eibner will get that opportunity.

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This is not Cuthbert’s first rodeo with the Royals, as he spent a bit of time with Kansas City last year while also working on his second stint so far this year. Last year Cuthbert produced a line of .217/.280/.370 in the big leagues with 1 homer, 8 RBI’s and an OPS+ of 75 in just 19 games. So far this year in 15 games, Cuthbert has a line of .237/.250/.339 1 home run, 3 RBI’s and an OPS+ of 60. Obviously both years have been just a small sample size for Cheslor, but in that time he has shown an ability to get on base and has played slightly above average defense at third base. Cuthbert got off to a hot start down in Omaha this year and while he got off to a quick start his first few games in Kansas City (.286/.310/.464 in his first seven games), he has tapered off just a bit over the last eight games. I don’t believe Cuthbert will produce the kind of power Moustakas was producing early this year, but he does have a little pop in his bat and is more than adequate on defense. Now that Cheslor knows he will probably be seeing regular playing time for the Royals(and I’m sure the occasional Whit Merrifield start sprinkled in there as well), it will be interesting to see if he relaxes a bit and embraces the playing time he will be receiving the rest of this season.

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Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann

Then there is Eibner, just recalled earlier today. Eibner has been an intriguing prospect for Kansas City, a former second round draft pick back in 2010. Eibner put together a strong 2015 campaign for the Royals AAA team in Omaha(.303/.364/.514 with 19 homers, 81 RBI’s and 200 total bases) and was looking to do the same early in 2016(.309/.411/.537 with 10 homers, 28 RBI’s and 80 total bases in just 41 games). Now what Eibner brings to the mix is not only a solid bat and solid glove, but also a little bit of speed. Many have felt Eibner should have been given a shot at playing a bit in right field last year in Kansas City and his name was even thrown around a bit this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get regular playing time on the corners in the outfield while Gordon is out, with some mix of Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson in right,  while Eibner and Merrifield patrol left. You hear a lot about players just wanting a chance to prove themselves and Eibner looks to be getting his now.

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I know many will view Gordon and Moustakas’ injuries as a negative(and trust me, it is) but there is also a positive to them missing time. The positive is that the Royals will now get a chance to view Cuthbert, Eibner and Merrifield on a semi-regular basis and assess just how they help the team moving forward. Obviously how they play will determine how much we see of them this season but if any of them produce on a consistent basis, that might help their spot in the organization in future years. Merrifield’s versatility is a big bonus for this Royals team and probably has the best chance of sticking but both Cuthbert and Eibner could increase their value this year. With Moustakas becoming a free agent after the 2017 season and right field not fully secured, both could work their way into a spot on the team. You hear a lot spoken from teams about “grabbing the brass ring” and “play well to force their hand”, and all three players have a chance to do just that moving forward. They might not be future All-Stars or middle of the lineup producers, but your entire team is not made up of MVP caliber players. Sometimes you just need a steady hand that a manager knows he can rely on.

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Opportunity is a beautiful thing, as it can spread surprise and unlock production in an unlikely way. Losing Gordon for a month and Moose for the rest of the year are big blows to a team that is hoping to contend again this year, but it’s not always the end of the world. The Royals have been a lucky team these last few years as they have not had to deal with very many major injuries to their key players. The true mettle of a team can be measured by how they react to adversity and things are as adverse as they have been in Kansas City in awhile. Eibner, Merrifield and Cuthbert have an opportunity before them that most did not expect when the season began. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if any of them step up and lock themselves into a regular spot on the roster. To be continued…

 

3

Tapped Potential

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Back in May of 2011, Eric Hosmer made his major league debut for the Kansas City Royals with expectations soaring through the roof. The world was his oyster and the belief was that Hosmer had the potential to be a future middle of the order run producer and possibly even future MVP candidate. Unfortunately, life and baseball don’t normally follow a movie script. Hosmer would struggle mightily in 2012 and would be up and down offensively from 2013 to 2015. Defensively he would accumulate a few Gold Gloves at first base and would be a big part of two Royals World Series teams. He had built up a nice career but maybe not the one everyone was hoping for. Luckily, sometimes it just takes a bit of time for a baseball player to figure things out, which is what has happened for Eric Hosmer in 2016.

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To this point in the new campaign, Hosmer has looked like the offensive force most of us expected upon his arrival. This year he is batting .311/.367/.522 with 8 home runs, 21 RBI’s and an OPS+ of 140 (or a wRC+of 145 if you prefer that). He has already racked up 1.1 bWAR and has become a complete player. The lone knock on Hos had been a lack of power, or more to the point that he seemed to prefer an opposite field approach to driving a ball for power. Now, I am a proponent of hitting the ball to all fields, which Hosmer is still doing(30% of his hits to left, 30 to center and 38.9 to right) but there is also a time for driving the ball, especially with good pitch recognition. Hosmer has so far racked up 17 extra base hits out of his 50 hits, or 34% of the time. His ground ball percentage is up(58 from 52 last year) but his fly ball percentage is up as well(26 to 24). Add in an ISO of .211(up from .162 last year) and you have the making of a guy more fitted to hit in the middle of the order. So what do the numbers tell us?

MLB: World Series-Kansas City Royals at New York Mets
(Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY)

What it tells me is that Hosmer’s main approach (which has always been to hit according to the situation) hasn’t drastically changed, but his ability to lift the ball has improved. Hosmer’s hard hit percentage this year is up, 35 from last year’s 32.9 and his HR/FB percentage is way up, 23 to 15. Obviously there is a smaller sample size at this point in the season compared to 2015 but even a slight dip should keep his numbers above what he did last year. What is most impressive is the increase in Hosmer’s exit velocity this year. Not only has his exit velocity gone up but it has progressively gone up:

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Hosmer has an average exit velocity this year of 93.5 mph, compared to 90.4 mph in 2015. Many of his home runs have not been ‘barely shots’, as he has had some massive bombs this year like last week against Boston. It shows that Hosmer has been taking advantage of pitchers mistakes, something he wasn’t doing earlier in his career. The fact that he is but 26 years old really makes one wonder what he will be able to do when he actually enters the prime of his career.

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There is no way to tell whether or not Hosmer will be able to keep up this pace, especially since over his career he has been an extremely streaky hitter. Just looking at 2015, by month Hosmer had slugging percentage’s of .488, .520, .322, .577, .434, and .410. There is an over.250 percent difference between his best and worst month. For as steady and consistent as he has been this year, Hosmer has a history of going from the top of the mountain to the depths of the basement. The hope this year is that Hosmer has started figuring things out and won’t fall to the inconsistentcy of his earlier years. It’s just two months(yes, small sample size; take a drink) but so far this year he has slugged .506 and .542. Time will tell but his numbers are definitely potruding in the correct direction.

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The Royals count on Eric Hosmer for a number of items-clubhouse leadership, popular hairstyles, steady, Gold Glove award winning defense(even if the defensive metrics don’t always agree) and a run producing bat in the middle of their batting order. Over the years he hasn’t always lived up to that last one but this year he has been the rock in the middle of a questionable Royals offense. Hosmer will be a free agent after the 2017 season and he looks primed to cash in when the time comes. There is no way to tell if that means a longer stay in Kansas City or elsewhere, but he has picked an excellent time to improve on his value. He has taken that power potential and made it a reality, a consistency long-needed in Kansas City. Earlier in the year I thought Steve Balboni might have his single season home run mark(36) threatened by Mike Moustakas; now I’m wondering if maybe ‘Bye Bye’ Balboni should worry about both Moose and Hos. For Royals fans, this is a good problem to have.

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Cough Syrup, Free Passes and Sparkplugs: Random Royals Notes

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I think we can all agree that the Kansas City Royals have hit a rough patch these last few weeks. The Royals have lost 11 out of their last 14 games and have fallen below .500 within the last couple of days. I’m not one to worry this early in the season, but it does appear as if plenty of other Royals fans are doing that for me. With all that being said, the news has not gotten much better this week as the path of ‘getting back on track’ has taken a detour. With that said, here are some random notes on what has been an eventful week for the Royals of Kansas City.

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  • Let’s begin with the most shocking news of the week, the 50 game suspension of Royals top prospect, Raul Mondesi, Jr.:

Now, the good news from this is that rather than receiving the normal 80 game suspension for a first time offender, Mondesi got his reduced due to proving a cough syrup he took had the PED he tested positive for in the ingredients:

The other positive of the reduced sentence is that because he was able to get his suspension reduced, Mondesi will be eligible for postseason play if the Royals want to use him in October:

So all things considered, this could have gone much worse for both the Royals and Mondesi. It appears, going off of the Royals AA affiliate’s, Northwest Arkansas, schedule that Mondesi would most likely be activated sometime in early July. Where the suspension hurts both parties is the development of Mondesi and his eventual ascension to the big leagues. I’ve been of the belief since before the season even started that Mondesi would be the Royals starting second baseman no later than August of this year. Now with this setback, I would say we might not even see him in the majors until September at the earliest, unless the Royals just believe he is ready to go. So there is still a possibility Mondesi will be helping out the big league club before the season is over, but the chances dimmed a bit from this news. There will be people in certain circles that will label him with the scarlet ‘PED’ letters, but I tend to lean toward MLB with this; if they believed his story enough that they reduced his suspension, then that’s where I will stand as well. Hopefully this is just a bump in the road to what will be a highly successful career for this youngster.

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  • An ever-growing area of concern for the Royals the last few weeks is the starting pitching, which has floundered at best during that span. Outside of Ian Kennedy (who has had only one bad start so far this season), the rotation has been inconsistent at best and ‘watching Bartolo Colon squeeze into a pair of speedos’ at worst. Edinson Volquez has had mostly good outings but a few stinkers while Chris Young has given up 13 home runs in just 32 innings(or a home run every 2.4 innings). Maybe the most concerning statistic is the one that Kris Medlen and Yordano Ventura have put up this year. Both starters are averaging over 7 walks per 9, with Medlen at 7.4 and Ventura at 7.3. The Royals starters are averaging 4.52 walks per 9 innings and only 5.2 innings per start. Bottom line, this group just isn’t getting it done and it’s put extra weight on the Royals bullpen. So are there any options? Only a few, to be honest. There is Danny Duffy in the bullpen, and it has always been figured that he would end up starting at some point this year, since Young was never slated to be a starter all year-long. Duffy might have to build up his arm a bit, but he is a good possibility. Dillon Gee is starting for Young on Saturday and has a good shot of staying there unless he completely bombs out. Mike Minor made his first rehab start on Tuesday, but he probably won’t be ready until the beginning of June. Hey, the Royals might have even see if Brian Flynn, a starter throughout his minor league career, can make a few starts to tide them over. So for the most part that leaves Kansas City with less than stellar options. For the most part, the Royals’ starters just need to step up their game and pitch the way they are expected to, as there is no magical solution to the problem on the horizon.

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  • I was posed the question multiple times this past week on whether or not Cheslor Cuthbert can play some second base. My answer was fairly standard: yes, as he had started three games in the minors throughout his career, committing two errors but I’m pretty sure the Royals would prefer a defensive player at second. Royals Review covered the possibility quite a bit recently and as much as I like Cheslor and would like to see him get more at bats, I just don’t see him getting playing time at second base in his future. The other question I was asked was about Royals minor league outfielder Jorge Bonifacio, who is off to a hot start down in AAA Omaha. I like Bonifacio as well, but I get the feeling the Royals aren’t quite sold that he is ready for a big league job. The questions were directed toward me more because the person was thinking that the Royals needed ‘a spark’ to get them going. As much as the offense has struggled scoring runs this year, I’m not sure either Cuthbert or Bonifacio are really the answer. I tend to believe the answer is already on the roster.

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  • Speaking of that answer, this leads me to a positive note about the offense. Over the last week, a few members of Kansas City’s starting lineup have started producing and getting on base quite regularly. Lorenzo Cain, who had struggled mightily to begin the season, has produced a line of .339/.339/.518 over the last couple of weeks with 3 home runs(all in one game against the Yankees on Tuesday), 7 RBI’s and a BABIP of . 421. Alex Gordon, a notoriously slow starter, has put up a line of .300/.400/.433 with 1 home run, 2 RBI’s and a BABIP of .421 since May 1st. Finally, Alcides Escobar has a line of .368/.400/.421 since May 1st with 3 RBI’s and a BABIP of .412. So the bats are starting to wake up and if Kansas City can get some solid starting pitching, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of belief if they went on a big winning streak. As much as the offense still has some questions(when will Kendrys Morales wake up?), it does appear as if a few players have started climbing out of their early season funk.

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So this season hasn’t played out the way most of us figured it would but it isn’t a lost cause either. It’s not the like the ‘World Champs’ have forgotten how to win, they just need to tweak their performance for better results. The good news is that Atlanta is headed to ‘The K’ this weekend and we all know how dreadful they have played so far this season. The bad news is that after that, Kansas City has Boston and then the White Sox to play in back to back series. If the Royals don’t want to fall farther off the beaten path, they are going to have to step it up and get locked in. If not, there might be a bigger discussion coming up about what needs to happen to turn things around. Before anyone asks, no, they don’t need to change the hitting coach. All that really needs to happen is for the Royals to stay focus and remember what made them the hunted and start being the hunter again.

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The Royals and .500 Baseball

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Mother’s Day, 2016. The Kansas City Royals wrap up their series in Cleveland against the Indians, losing the rubber game and losing their fourth straight series in a row. The Royals now sit at 15-15 as they head to New York to take on the Yankees. To say there is concern for Royals fans would be an understatement; a few weeks into the new season and Kansas City does not look like the defending World Champions. But should you be concerned? Nope. Or should I say, “at least not yet”.

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I say not yet because just going by the numbers, this Royals team is not too far off from where they were last year within the American League. Let’s look at offense first, since there has been a lot of concern with the Royals producing with the bats as of late. The Royals right now are on par with where they were last year with numbers you would expect; top of the league in steals, near the top in BABIP, near the bottom in walks and pretty much all power statistics, which is fairly normal for the Royals the last few years. Even their strikeout percentage is the 5th lowest in the American League, which I’m sure is surprising to some. There has been a lot of talk so far this year on how guys like Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain have struck out more than normal, but the numbers say as a team they are about where they normally are. Where things differentiate is runs and RBI’s. Last year, the Royals drove in a healthy amount of runs and were in the upper portion of the league at year’s end. This year they are dead last and a lot of that can be pointed toward their inability to score runners in scoring position. The Royals have the third highest rate in the American League (3.55) of stranding runners in scoring position, with only Boston and Houston stranding more this year. To go along with this, Kansas City is just not creating runs, as evident by their being tied for last in wRC+ with 87. So offensively, this team is just not creating runs and being clutch, which are two main cogs of the Royals offense during these last two seasons.

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So what about the pitching? For the most part the Royals are putting up about the same numbers here as well. Going down the line, the stats match up with 2015; HR/9, BABIP, LOB% and GB% are all fairly close to what the Royals finished at last year. One area that has seen a slight bump is the walks per 9, which have jumped up from 3.03 last year to 3. 98 so far in 2016. It’s very believable at this stage in the season to see where a few extra base runners could cause a few more runs for the Royals, even despite the percentage of runners being stranded by the pitching staff on level with last year. The Royals hard hit percentage is also up a tad(29.4 last year, 32.1 so far in 2016) which is mildly concerning, but something the pitching staff can flip around, partially by improving their pitch location. Just taking a glance at the numbers, it shows that Kansas City’s pitchers have a few areas they can improve on, but nothing that can’t be adjusted for a quick fix.

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So just basing how the season has progressed by the numbers, Kansas City isn’t too far away from climbing their way back to the top of the American League Central. It’s easy to see a scenario where the hitters starting hitting better in tight situations and the pitchers start toning down the walks and not allowing as many pitches in the middle of the plate(and a little more good luck). The White Sox have a six game lead right now over the Royals, which is very attainable. Just as the Royals won’t play this way all season, the White Sox won’t dominate all season. Strap in folks; we are one hot streak away from the Royals blowing past .500 baseball.

 

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Dayton’s Farm

 

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Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann

From about 2009 on, I have regularly followed the Kansas City Royals minor  league teams to keep track of the development of the prospects throughout the Royals farm system. Initially it was done to get a glimpse into brighter days, as the big league club was struggling and the likes of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez were all being touted as the future of the organization. Luckily, I enjoyed keeping track of the future big league stars in the minors and have continued following the development of the Royals prospects. So while the Royals are now the World Champions of baseball, their farm system is still chugging away with a number of players who will end up contributing to the big league club. Today, let’s look at some of the players who are putting up good numbers down on the farm.

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Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann

Let’s begin with the Royals AAA team, the Omaha Storm Chasers. The Chasers are about 21 games into the new season and have gotten some solid hitting from their lineup in the first few weeks of the 2016 campaign. Jorge Bonifacio has been the big bopper so far, as he is currently riding a 10-game hitting streak into Saturday’s game. Bonifacio, the brother of former Royal Emilio Bonifacio, has been hitting at a .333/.341/.571 clip with 4 home runs, 17 RBI’s and 48 total bases. Bonifacio has had some competition though, as Cheslor Cuthbert has been tearing it up as well, hitting .325/.393/.584 with 5 home runs, 23 RBI’s and 45 total bases. But it hasn’t just been the hitters stealing the show for the Chasers so far this year, as Brooks Pounders is 2-0 in his first 4 starts, with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.20 to lead the Chasers pitching staff.

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Meanwhile, let’s mosey on over to the Royals AA affiliate, the Northwest Arkansas Naturals. The name on most people’s lips on this team is Raul Mondesi Jr, who is one of the Royals top prospects. While Mondesi has shown some decent power this year for really the first time in his career( 4 home runs so far, 8 total extra base hits), the early staple of the Naturals lineup has been former #1 Draft Pick Hunter Dozier. Dozier is hitting .299/.405/.627 with 5 homers, 14 RBI’s and 42 total bases. On the pitching side, the team has been bolstered by two guys I have talked about before, Alec Mills and Matt Strahm. Both have 4 starts under their belt so far this year, ERA’s under 2.00 and WHIP’s under 1.00 while striking out a combined 41 batters over 45 innings. I still think their future is tied to the bullpen, but so far they have been the horses of the Naturals’ rotation.

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The final stop on this Royals minor league tour is Kansas City’s High A ball affiliate, the Wilmington Blue Rocks. A player who has been steadily rising on the Royals prospect board is first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. O’Hearn has been a ‘One Man Wrecking Machine’ in Wilmington, putting up a line of .366/.424/.707 with 7 home runs, 18 RBI’s and 58 total bases in just 21 games. On the pitching side, the Blue Rocks have been led by Pedro Fernandez, a fireballing righty who has been almost unhittable so far this year. Fernandez has struck out 23 over 22 innings so far this year, posting a 1.21 ERA and a WHIP just a hair over 1.00(1.03). These two players are the best prospects in Wilmington at the moment and I would have to think will be in AA before the year is up.

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So a quick trip through the Royals farm system shows a number of prospects are putting up stellar numbers in the early going of 2016. It’s still too early to tell just how many of these players will end up helping the Royals, although one would think at least a few will see time in Kansas City before the season is over. What this shows is that while the Royals are one of the older teams in the American League, there is still youth in the minors that could be helping the team in the near future.

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One Thing Does Not Lead To Another

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(Allen Eyestone / The Palm Beach Post)

The big story around baseball on Friday was that Miami Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon had been suspended for 80 games because he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Gordon had tested positive during Spring Training and had been appealing the suspension until he decided to drop the appeal on Thursday. There are a number of items of note to take from this suspension, whether it be the fact that Gordon doesn’t fit the stereotype of a PED user(although if you have been paying attention, when a pitcher like Jason Grimsley is in the Mitchell Report you know that stereotype isn’t always true), the question of why someone who just signed a new guaranteed deal would do anything to endanger that, to why some people are questioning the validity of the testing done by MLB when it obviously seems to be working. All those topics are interesting(as are the five Jayson Stark threw out there today) and well worth a discussion, but it’s not the direction I am going today. Instead, I want to focus on the narrative some so-called “journalists” are tossing out there. I was at work this morning and while listening to the radio, caught the NBC Sports Update, a small two minute look at sports news. They mentioned the Gordon suspension and then at the end of it said “…by the way, Gordon’s hitting coach is Barry Bonds.” Obviously, this rubbed me the wrong way, as it had absolutely nothing to do with Gordon’s situation other than to imply something about Bonds. What is even worse is that I have seen three different articles throwing the same insinuation out there. What has happened to journalism?

MLB: MAY 26 Marlins at Pirates
May 26 2015: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

By no means am I sticking up for Barry Bonds here; I think most of us agree Barry probably did something he shouldn’t have, even if part of the problem was that baseball wasn’t testing anyone during that period. No, the whole issue is that this has nothing to do with Bonds, AT ALL. The implications by these “news outlets” is that Barry Bonds, a former suspected PED user, helped point Dee Gordon in the direction to use PED’s. That is just ludicrous and shoddy journalism at best. What has been taught over the years to journalists is to get your facts straight and lay out all the information that you have. That doesn’t mean point to a narrative that will give you more link clicks or put up misleading headlines to grab people’s attention and then have nothing of any actual substance. The fact that Bonds is Gordon’s hitting coach this year is merely a coincidence and means absolutely nothing to whether or not Gordon took something he shouldn’t. So the narrative pushed is that Barry told him “Hey man, you should take PED’s; they will make you a bigger star and pile up your numbers!”, which just seems crazy if you think about it. Even crazier is the fact these news outlets are throwing that narrative out there, completely killing any credibility they once had.

USP MLB: WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT MIAMI MARLINS S BBN USA FL
(Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY)

Even if you read the ESPN article I linked above, they mention Bonds. No facts to back up the possibility of Bonds getting in Gordon’s ear, not other Marlin’s getting suspended, nothing. This is where journalism is in 2016. So if any San Diego Padres player gets caught using PED’s, does that fall at bench coach Mark McGwire’s feet? If any New York Yankee tests positive, should we all point the finger at Alex Rodriguez? Just writing that made me shake my head because it is beyond ignorant to assume such a thing. This is what happens when writers are lazy and don’t have any actual facts but want to drive up the hits on their story. Just because one (suspected) PED user was in the same vicinity as someone who tested positive for these performance-enhancing substances doesn’t mean there is a direct correlation; it means that even with modern day testing and harsher penalties, these players still want to get an edge any way possible, legally or illegally.

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The most ironic part of this poor excuse for journalism is that this is a big story even if Bonds’ name is never mentioned. Mentioning that last year’s batting title winner and National League All-Star tested positive for PED’s and would be suspended for half the season is a big story without dusting off the cobwebs and taking shots at Barry. This story is about Gordon and how even in the modern era of baseball, players still feel the need to endanger their spot in the game for the possibility of “getting one up” on the competition. The story can even be how MLB’s drug testing is working, catching up to seven players already this season. Instead, many writers take the easy way out and decide to use “shock journalism” to create their own narrative. The funny thing is, I wonder what Bonds would say if a player asked him today if it was worth it for him to take an illegal substance to gain an advantage? He very well might say it wasn’t worth it since he has been shunned by the baseball Hall of Fame and in a lot of circles he isn’t viewed as the true “Home Run King” of baseball. Right there is why you don’t mention Bonds name in any Gordon story about his suspension. If you don’t know how Bonds feels about the subject at this point in time, there is no way to assume he has discussed anything other than hitting with Dee Gordon. That is what a real journalist would call a fact; maybe outlets like NBC and ESPN should look into that more often.

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