Tag: aaron crow

For the Love of God, Stop Bunting!

Chris Getz

Last night, the Kansas City Royals encountered a tough loss to division rivals, the Detroit Tigers. It was a back and forth game between the two ball clubs that saw the Royals leave a bunch of runners on base and ended with the best hitter in baseball, Miguel Cabrera, take Aaron Crow deep in the 9th inning to win  the game. Some Royals fans were outraged that Crow pitched to Cabrera instead of intentionally walking him. I was more outraged that the Royals bunted during the top of the inning with two outs and a runner on third.

Dan Wheeler

If there is one thing that I absolutely loathe about this Royals team(and thank goodness, there aren’t as many things to hate as say, last year) is that they consider bunting a big part of their game. Manager Neddy Yost loves bunting. LOVES it. The last couple years we’ve had to hear about how good a bunter Chris Getz is, even though he has failed to put down a bunt countless times and even injured himself trying to bunt. How many tweets have I seen this year that beat writer Bob Dutton has put out(tweeted out?)  talking about the team practicing bunting during batting practice? Too many. I sometimes feel like this team thinks it’s 1982 and there are still stadiums with AstroTurf on them. The honest truth is I used to not hate bunting so much. All we have to do is go back to 2010…

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How many remember the 2010 Kansas City Royals? If you do, you remember that they didn’t have much punch on that team. That team had Billy Butler, Jose Guillen…and…and…well, Yuniesky Betancourt was tied for the team lead in RBI’s-with 78. This was also a team with Scott Podsednik and David DeJesus at the top of the lineup, so if this team relied a bit more on small ball, that was fine. The honest truth was that team probably wasn’t going to score much if not for small ball. It was fun watching this team built more around speed work that speed to their advantage and have a very good April, before they fell off the map later on in May. For that team, it made a bit more sense to use bunting as a weapon. But the last two years? Absolutely no reason to use it at all.

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Now, there are a few times that bunting is acceptable and even the best course of action to take, but for the most part it isn’t, and the numbers prove it. If you are in the bottom of the eighth or ninth, and really only need one run, and you have a runner on first with no outs, a sacrifice bunt is acceptable. In fact the percentage chance of scoring one run actually goes up in that case. But if you aren’t playing for one run(and let’s be honest, you rarely should be), this is an awful choice, as your run expectancy goes down. Don’t believe me? Read here. For the most part, you should always be playing for more than one run, as only a fool thinks you should stop at one if you have a chance at more. Letting the batter go ahead and hit makes your chance of scoring go up and give you an opportunity to put more runs on the board. There is nothing more frustrating to me than seeing the Royals bunting…IN THE FIRST INNING!!! Everytime it happens, all I can think of is former Orioles manager Earl Weaver. Weaver once said “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get”. It might not be like that 100% of the time, but if you look it up, Weaver is right. Playing for one run just seems like a flawed theory and an easy way to have your team playing from behind.

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There is one exception in my mind for bunting: if Royals outfielder Jarrod Dyson wants to bunt, you let him. Hell, at times you force him to bunt. Dyson has ridiculous speed. Like ‘Herb Washington only pinch runs because he is a world-class sprinter’ type speed. There are certain players in the game that can use their speed as a weapon, and Dyson is one of them. He has game changing speed. Dyson is a guy who can bunt for a hit and even if the infield is in, will probably get it. So in this situation, I am fine with bunting. A speedster like Dyson can completely change the game plan of the other team or even worse for them, wreak havoc on a fragile pitchers psyche. In this scenario, let him bunt.

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Unfortunately, the Royals don’t seem to use their bunting in correct or even logical situations. Alcides Escobar is guilty, especially when he was batting second, of bunting in the first inning. Second Baseman Chris Getz can barely get the ball to the outfield sometimes, so bunting is a big part of his game, and not always when he really should. I would like to say here that it is just a situation of the team not having guys who are good hitters, but it goes deeper than that. This organization loves bunting. The manager and the GM are on the same page, both heaping high praise on the players who bring bunting into the game. Well, unless you are Escobar. Then sometimes Neddaniel will throw you under the bus. But for the most part, they applaud the use of the bunt, and that is just as big a problem as the player who goes out there and thinks it gives them a better chance of scoring then standing in the box and actually trying to hit the ball.

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So, are there times that bunting is not only acceptable, but should be expected? Of course. But for the majority of time, it should probably be discouraged and left for only certain situations or for certain players. I know the bunt used to be a big part of the game years ago, but the game is in a constant flux of change, and will for the rest of eternity. The numbers don’t lie and show that bunting actually hurts your team’s chances of putting runs on the board. The Kansas City Royals, a team that can’t allow for many mistakes, would be wise to learn a proper time to use the bunt and when it is detrimental. Bunting with two outs in the 9th and a runner on third? Not the right time. When that happens, a loss shouldn’t be a shock. I can only hope the Royals learn this lesson before it hurts them during a crucial time, like making a playoff push.       

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Royals Come to Play…But Will They Contend?

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In December, Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore pulled off a blockbuster trade, acquiring pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis from Tampa Bay for top prospect Wil Myers and three other minor leaguers. With this trade, the Royals pushed all their chips in, declaring themselves contenders. But can this team really contend? Was pitching all this team needed to be taken seriously? Will the offense bloom under new hitting coaches? and will Jeff Francoeur find his swing? Time to take a magnifying glass to the 2013 Kansas City Royals and decipher whether they are contenders or pretenders.

James Shields

Let’s start where the Royals focused their attention on this offseason: pitching. Obviously, the Royals have improved their starting rotation with the additions of Shields, Davis, Ervin Santana and re-signing mid-season acquisition Jeremy Guthrie. This rotation is not the same one the team sported in 2012, not even close. James Shields gives the Royals a top of the rotation guy, while Santana and Guthrie have both been solid starters in the past. As much as this rotation is better, it’s not like it’s the reincarnation of the old Atlanta Braves rotations led by Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Shields has always been a number two guy in Tampa, while Santana had his worst season last year with the Angels. Guthrie was atrocious in Colorado last year before being acquired by Kansas City, but he seemed to get the train back on the tracks by the end of the season and was quite possibly the best pitcher for the Royals in the second half of the season. Wade Davis is a bit of a question mark. Davis had a great 2012 with the Rays, but that was in a relief role. The Royals are sliding Davis back to the rotation, where he struggled in 2011. He wasn’t horrible in that role, but the numbers look eerily like Luke Hochevar’s best season, which in hindsight still wasn’t that good. It will be interesting to see not only how Davis does back in the rotation, but also how long of a leash the Royals will give him if he struggles. That leaves the fifth spot in the rotation, and as of this writing it is down to Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza. Now, looking at Chen’s stats this spring, and add in an underwhelming 2012, and it would appear that Mendoza should have this spot all locked up. But manager Neddy Yost thinks Mendoza is the perfect long reliever, despite Mendoza battling Guthrie in the second half of last year for title of ‘best pitcher in the Royals rotation’. With all that being said, my gut tells me Neddy will pick Chen to start the season. That is fine if Chen can show he is the guy who is a former Royals Pitcher of the Year. If not, one can only hope he is replaced before too much damage can be done. It should also be mentioned here that the team could get a bump in the middle of the season, as both Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino will be close to returning around that time. I say this reluctantly, as there is no guarantee that those two will be able to contribute much, as they are both coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Time will tell, but those two could help the team down the stretch if so needed.

Bruce Chen

From all appearances, it seems the Royals bullpen will be an above average unit once again in 2013. Last year, a bullpen lead by Holland, Herrera and Crow were one of the best bullpens in baseball, and they had to be as they accumulated a ton of innings in 2012. This was a big part of why the Royals needed to upgrade their starting rotation, as if not for the bullpen last year, the Royals would have been even worse than they were. Let that sink in for a minute. Luckily for Kansas City, most of the crew is back in 2013, and should be just as strong as it was last year. It will be interesting to see how former starter Luke Hochevar acclimates himself to a role in the pen. For all we know, having to work less and being able to go all out might be the thing to unlock some of the potential that Royals management have been talking about for years. Overall, this is a deep and solid bunch, and could be even better if the rotation holds up their end of the game.

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Now we shift to the offense. At first glance, it would appear that this would be another positive for the Royals in 2013. But not so fast. The same thing was thought last year, but this Royals bunch just didn’t score runs. I talked about it here. Funny thing is that Royals management made no changes to the offense this offseason, so what you see this year is the same as last year. Obviously, the Royals are counting on a turnaround by a bunch of their younger players and a few veterans. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon more than held their own last year. Either one could make the argument that they were the best player on this team last year. Alcides Escobar took another step forward as well, flirting with .300 most of the season, and Salvador Perez showed us that those last few months of 2011 weren’t a fluke. But for this team to really reach their full potential(and become a playoff contender), they need a number of things that went wrong in 2012 to go right this year. Mike Moustakas had a great first half of the season, both offensively and defensively. There was even talk that he was a candidate to be an All-Star. But Moose fell far in the second half of the season. There is a prevalent thought that a knee injury was a big part of that slump, and if that is the case then expect Moose to take another step forward in 2013. Eric Hosmer struggled mightily in 2012, to the point that he never found his groove. A lot of the team’s success this year will fall on Hos’ shoulders, whether that is deserved or not. This spring he has looked better at times, while at other times he has looked like the Hosmer of 2012. The big part for him needs to be consistency. If Hos can keep his swing consistent, then the Royals will feel comfortable moving him up in the lineup and taking pressure off of the rest of the lineup. If not, the team might be shopping for someone to fill in at first base until(if?) he can find that consistency. Another person they need to step it up this year is Jeff Francoeur. If Francoeur plays like he did last year, the Royals won’t be contenders. Period. The Royals were so confident that this would happen that they felt comfortable trading prospect(and probable Francoeur replacement) Wil Myers this offseason. If Frenchy can’t find his swing, then the team will have to look for his replacement. Second base is also a question mark, as it looks as if Chris Getz will be the second bagger for the team. The fact that management didn’t feel the need to go out shopping for this spot says a lot about how they feel about Getzie. The honest truth is that if he is starting, they can expect very little in the realm of offense with him. He is what he is, Royals management. The Royals have very little room for mistakes this year, and they need a different look offense in 2013 if they want to contend.

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The Royals were bit by the injury bug early and often last year, and they have to hope this year is a complete 180 degrees from last year. As much as this team has more depth than they have had in a very long time, this is still not a team who has a replacement ready for most of their positions. If a major starter(Butler or Gordon) comes down hurt, it will be a major blow for the team and probably push back their chances of being in a pennant race. The pitching has more depth, for sure, and even have options for a change, but there is a fall from their top starters to the relief that will be sitting at Omaha. As it showed last year when catcher Salvador Perez went down in Spring Training, the Royals just can’t handle a major blow to the team. The depth just isn’t there. So if someone goes down, it could spell doom for this ballclub.

Ned Yost

There is one more thing we should factor into this season for our boys in blue. I know not everyone agrees, but I am of the belief that having Neddy Yost still at the helm for the Royals factors into this season. The Royals can have a lot of the question marks mentioned above go right for them, and there is a good chance that will happen. But it could all be negated by Yost. Some might think a manager doesn’t make that big a difference on whether or not they win or lose, but it does. Very few teams get anywhere if they don’t have a good manager, or at least one that knows when to trust his players and coaches and step aside. Then there are managers like Yost. Yost likes to tinker when he doesn’t need to. Just look at all the lineup changes last year. He also doesn’t seem to handle pressure well. Anyone remember the Royals 12 game losing streak last year and the decisions Yost made? If that isn’t enough for you, how about in Milwaukee. The Brewers fired him with only twelve games left in the season and the Brew Crew pushing for a playoff spot. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t invoke confidence in Yost’s managerial skills come crunch time. Let’s say the Royals are contending in September. I would have to say there is a good chance Yost will find a way to screw it up and do something so monumental that we will be talking about it for years to come. I would almost guarantee it. Since his hire, I have thought Yost is not the guy to take the Royals to the promised land. He was a decent placeholder for this ballclub, but if the organization is serious about being a playoff club, then Yost must go. I would like to think when it comes down to the nitty gritty, Yost will step aside, not over-manage, and allow the talent to take over. But Yost likes to tinker–and bunt. He could make all the difference this year on whether or not the Royals sniff the postseason.

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This is, without a doubt, one of the most pivotal seasons in Kansas City Royals history, and one that will determine whether or not the current regime keeps their job or the Royals move in a new direction. Dayton Moore has thrown his chips on the table and it is .500 or bust. If the team falls short, Moore and probably Yost will be gone. If they reach that goal, they will probably be given 2-3 more years. There is a buzz about this team that hasn’t been there in the last decade, and it shows just how passionate Royals fans truly are. But to be honest, I don’t think it is enough. As much as Kansas City needed pitching, they ignored a lot of the other problems this team had in 2012. I do think some of those problems will improve this year, but there is no way you can expect all of them too. When you add in how the American League Central got stronger in the offseason, it is hard to see this team improving by 15-20 wins. Right now, this team seems to me to win 78-80 games, falling just shy of .500. There is a chance it could go a few more either way, but that is what I would guess as of right now. I do hope I’m wrong, and the Royals are able to contend. Lord knows Royals fans deserve it.

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BREAKING NEWS: Royals Wake Up, Demote Hochevar to Bullpen

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I’m shocked. I thought there was no way Luke Hochevar would NOT start the year as the Royals number five starter. All we have heard the last couple years is that he is rightthere and is about to turn the corner. We have heard countless sound bites from manager Neddy Yost and pitching coach Dave Eiland about how great his ‘stuff’ is. We’ve heard GM Dayton Moore discuss how great Hochevar’s ‘stuff’ is to the point that it sounds like he has a bromance with Hoch. While almost every Royals fan has screamed for Hochevar’s release, Royals management stood by him no matter how bad he pitched. Every blowup, every imploded inning, every Opening Day meltdown. The Royals have stood by and said they believe in Luke. Next to Frenchy and maybe Getzie, Hochevar is Kansas City’s ‘Golden Child’. So to find out today that he is being shipped to the bullpen is a shocker. I didn’t see it coming.

Luke Hochevar

That doesn’t mean it isn’t deserved. Oh no, it is very deserved. So far this Spring, Hochevar has given up six runs in eight innings pitched for a ridiculous 6.75 ERA. While Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza have looked good(except for Chen’s last outing), Hochevar sucked it up in classic Hochevar style, pretty much like we are used to. In his second outing of the Spring, Hochevar allowed three hits and a walk in the three innings he pitched, yet gave up no runs. I really felt that was amazing, considering every time I checked the game a runner was on base. But Hochevar’s luck ran out on Sunday when he gave up four runs, five hits and two walks in the 3.1 innings he threw that day. Apparently that finally opened up management’s eyes to Hochevar. I have no clue what was different between that and the last few years. It really did seem like a normal Luke outing. He ‘Hoched’ it up, so to speak. With less than three weeks until Opening Day, it will be interesting whether we actually see Hochevar pitch out of the bullpen in a regular season game. I have a feeling this will go one of two ways.

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The first option is for him to actually work out of the bullpen. As much as I’ve been calling for his head, I am intrigued to see how he can do out of the bullpen. I mean, he does have ‘stuff’. Good ‘stuff’, especially if you ask Neddy Yost. Yost views him as a guy coming in for an inning in the 7th and 8th and throw some of that nasty ‘stuff’. Hey, there is no lie that the guy lights up the radar gun and has some movement on his pitches. No one has ever questioned that. His issue has been when he has allowed runners on base and the meltdown that is always soon to follow. One wonders if Hochevar is allowed to come out of the pen and just throw gas, will that make him more focused and not have to worry about saving himself for later innings? It might. If he can harness his ‘stuff’, then he can be a lethal arm to add with Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera in the late innings of a close game before handing the ball over to closer Greg Holland. I actually wondered last year if that would be a good option. But let’s be honest here for a minute. If that happens, and Hoch works out of the bullpen, I think it’s pretty safe to say that this is his last chance. If it doesn’t work coming out late in the game, then he will find himself on the unemployment line.

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The other option is a trade. Dayton Moore has been trying to work out a deal for Hochevar since the winter, but I’m pretty sure no one is willing to bite and give up something for him. That is not to say that there aren’t any teams willing to give him a chance and see if they can fix whatever flaw the Royals have been unable to figure out. I’m sure Dayton wants something of value in return, and it’s going to be hard to find that for a guy who has been one of the worst starters in baseball history. Oh, and one who is making almost $5 million a season. Good job, guys. Hochevar is that blind spot in management’s eye. But he could be traded, and I would have to believe that either a team hurting for pitching(like Colorado) could take him in a deal or a team who likes reclamation projects(like Oakland). But Dayton needs to lower his asking price. You can’t get a future Cy Young winner for Hochevar. You can’t even get a solid reliever for him. Maybe a player to be named later or cash. Lower the bar, GMDM. Then you can jettison Hoch out of town. I would be willing to chip in bus fair. Put it on my tab.

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The end of the line is near for Mr. Hochevar now. It is time for him to either sink or swim, and history has taught us that sinking has a very high chance of winning. The Royals took a lot longer to get to this point then we fans have, but they have gotten there nonetheless. This is a make or break season for Kansas City, and having the Hochevar we have seen for the last five years can not be an option for a team wanting to contend. If Luke wants to be a starter, he needs to show it from the pen at this point. Being a solid reliever isn’t a bad gig either. Either way, you are collecting a Major League Baseball paycheck. If you don’t perform, the checks stop. Time to be Cool Hand Luke and be the guy who can dominate a team like the Tampa Bay Rays. Otherwise he won’t be calling Kansas City home.

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